Kalbear Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, Tywin et al. said: Why would undecideds break overwhelmingly for an an unprecedented sinking stone incumbent? Because he's the incumbent, and he's the devil they know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, Kalbear said: It might be pessimistic, but it's not absurd; it's closer to what happened in 2016 with polling than not. No, what happened in 2016 is more voters broke third party than was expected. 1 minute ago, Kalbear said: Because he's the incumbent, and he's the devil they know. Undecideds traditionally do not break for the incumbent. And this can be borne out by recent polling - whereas those that did not like either Hillary or Trump in 2016 preferred Trump then, now that same group prefers Biden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, DMC said: But yeah, on Florida, I don't trust anything. I will be voting from there though! They sent me a ballot for their August 18th Dem primary in which a state representative seat, two county commissioners, sheriff, two school board seats, and a "property appraiser" are the contests listed. Got it about a week ago, still trying to muster the strength to care about any of those. Typical liberal voter fraud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 minute ago, DMC said: No, what happened in 2016 is more voters broke third party than was expected. Some? But a lot of his gain was people voting for Trump who had been late-deciding, per the polls. "And these weren't small groups of voters. The number of undecided and third-party-supporting voters who were still free agents in the final week was as many as 1 in 8 voters nationally -- an uncharacteristically high number for the eve of an election. (As Nate Silver noted, it was just 3 percent in 2012.)" 1 minute ago, DMC said: Undecideds traditionally do not break for the incumbent. And this can be borne out by recent polling - whereas those that did not like either Hillary or Trump in 2016 preferred Trump then, now that same group prefers Biden. I don't think looking at tradition for this election is reasonable on any level. But yes, the 'people who hate both people prefer Biden' is a really interesting voting bloc in tendency. I still suspect they'll end up voting for Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Because he's the incumbent, and he's the devil they know. Yeah, they know him, and they're still not down with it which has only been magnified by all the chaos. Trump's electorate is shrinking. There are no attempts at genuine expansion. The undecideds at this point, in these times, will stay home before they break for Trump, and local voting laws will also play a large role in their degree of turnout. I wouldn't be so pessimistic that an unexpected number of people will vote for Trump. Be more concerned that the overall turnout will be significantly lower than expected, and that this lower turnout could especially target swing states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Typical liberal voter fraud. I've kinda joked about this with family and friends, and probably shouldn't be stating it on a public forum, but I totally could register in Pennsylvania while Florida still sends me ballots. The GOP is not wrong about that. TO BE CLEAR AUTHORITIES: I WILL NOT DO THAT! 1 minute ago, Kalbear said: Some? But a lot of his gain was people voting for Trump who had been late-deciding, per the polls. I really don't care to get in an argument about the minutia of 2016..for the umpteenth time. Point is, your original post suggested ALL of the undecided or 3rd party votes would go to Trump, and that assertion is plainly ridiculous. That did not happen in 2016 or any other election ever. 3 minutes ago, Kalbear said: I still suspect they'll end up voting for Trump. That's cuz you're a perpetual pessimist. I'm here to brighten your day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, DMC said: I really don't care to get in an argument about the minutia of 2016..for the umpteenth time. Point is, your original post suggested ALL of the undecided or 3rd party votes would go to Trump, and that assertion is plainly ridiculous. That did not happen in 2016 or any other election ever. That's true. I still think you have to assume that in order to set your expectations appropriately. Just now, DMC said: That's cuz you're a perpetual pessimist. I'm here to brighten your day! I prefer realist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Kalbear said: I prefer realist. Always expecting the worst is not being a realist. There is good in this world Frodo, and it's worth fighting for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, DMC said: Always expecting the worst is not being a realist. There is good in this world Frodo, and it's worth fighting for! America 2020 has taught me that pessimism is realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, DMC said: Always expecting the worst is not being a realist. There is good in this world Frodo, and it's worth fighting for! I don't always expect the worst. But in the case of Trump and Republicans - a nascent authoritarian who has been shown they have no real limits on their power, combined with corruption and a very good reason to stay in office, along with a judiciary destroying voter rights - I was already assuming he'd win a second term, and that was before Covid. I just don't think we have a handle on how bad it really is going to be. I might not be right about a specific risk - but the risk management side of me says that there are simply so many potential vectors that at least a few of them are going to be a major problem, and I don't think anyone is prepared to even discuss it. We are at the point where federal paramilitary forces are blackbagging people off the street, and no one is doing anything about it. What makes you think that things are going to be normal or remotely fair? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, Kalbear said: What makes you think that things are going to be normal or remotely fair? Because the only way to ensure things will be remotely fair is to be vigilant and not have a defeatist attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Morpheus said: The same thing will eventually happen to Donald Trump, sadly, no matter when he leaves office. To maintain the status quo, his crimes will be minimized, his administration will be normalized, Michelle Obama will make a big show of embracing him and spew nonsense about “respecting differences”. All of our presidents will still be basically “good people” who maybe broke a few minor laws, started a suspect war or two, but ultimately American exceptionalism will set all to right. I agree with the rest of this, but I don't think Trump will ever be rehabilitated to this extent. Even if the establishment were willing to do that - and they mostly won't - Trump would never accept it or create the conditions where it could happen. He'll conduct himself out of office as he has done in office, with bad grace, naked bigotry and open spite, and expect to be revered for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Its unrealistic to assume all the undecideds will break for Trump. if you want to use a 2016 model though (like 3;1 for Trump or whatever), then I believe Biden would still carry WI, PA, MI and FL (haven't checked, but it sounds reasonable). I'd rather focus on the Biden-Clinton 6 point differential and whether they are older voters or Obama-Trump voters or what. I'd like to know if they have soft support for Biden or otherwise - I think older voters may be harder to convince to change their votes back to Trump, as his COVID response wont get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, mormont said: I agree with the rest of this, but I don't think Trump will ever be rehabilitated to this extent. Even if the establishment were willing to do that - and they mostly won't - Trump would never accept it or create the conditions where it could happen. He'll conduct himself out of office as he has done in office, with bad grace, naked bigotry and open spite, and expect to be revered for it. If we are lucky enough to see it, Trump's ex-Presidency will be different and almost assuredly more active than any President since Teddy Roosevelt (who unsuccessfully sought a third, non-consecutive term in 1912). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Maithanet said: If we are lucky enough to see it, Trump's ex-Presidency will be different and almost assuredly more active than any President since Teddy Roosevelt (who unsuccessfully sought a third, non-consecutive term in 1912). His children are going to be unbearable in the post-Presidency years. Ivanka and Little Don probably think they can be President eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 minute ago, DanteGabriel said: His children are going to be unbearable in the post-Presidency years. Ivanka and Little Don probably think they can be President eventually. I would say that the odds that there's a member of the Trump family running for the Republican nomination in 2024 is at least 80%. The only question is whether it's Donald, Ivanka or Junior*, and whether the Republican party is ready to move on or if they're still in the thrall of those charlatans. * Hell, it's possible Ivanka and Junior could BOTH run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said: His children are going to be unbearable in the post-Presidency years. Ivanka and Little Don probably think they can be President eventually. I mean, Trump's getting pretty old. And he's lazy. I think it's bad mojo to imagine his post-presidency, but I don't expect he'll be doing much more than tweet-shitting. Maybe he'll try to start a media network like he's always dreamed of, but even then, like DG said, he'd have his kids run it. And, this is just gut call, but seems to me Ivanka is the one he's trying to set up as a political heir. I don't see Bateman or Lenny running for office. Maybe Kushner would try, but I think even Trump knows he'd probably lose even a House contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 minute ago, DMC said: I think it's bad mojo to imagine his post-presidency Well I was careful not to explicitly say whether post-presidency Trump is in 2021 or later. Thus the "If we are lucky enough to see it" was only to protect against the relatively unlikely possibilities of Trump successfully installing himself as President-for-life and some sort of global apocalypse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 I'd worry less about the Trump brats as they have no political futures and more about how in general the bar has been lowered to such a significant degree. Much more intelligent rotten fucks will be taking advantage of our decaying democracy than the likes of Ivanka or Donny Dipshit Jr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 AOC's speech this morning in response to Yoho's shitty non-apology was great, and worth watching. Edit: better link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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