Covid-19 #17: Covid Is For Ever

[rotting sea cow]

2 hours ago, Crixus said:

According to this article, apart from R, a key factor seems to k which is dispersion, pointing to stuff like super-spreader events and their link to people in closed spaces for extended periods of time with poor ventilation. So, restaurants, churches/places of worship, gyms and so on. It also talks about 'back-tracing' to control clusters, something which Japan did effectively, for instance. Essentially, this may indicate that a lot of the time most people in certain conditions aren't going to be as contagious, so the focus should shift a bit to containing situations that fit the description above: crowds, closed spaces, extended time, poor ventilation. 

It's something we've been reading/hearing for a while now, but it just seems that if governments are able to focus on these aspects, they could perhaps achieve a balance between the economy and infection. 

Link: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ 

 

Excellent article! It also describes well many seemingly "strange" behaviours found during the pandemic. Indeed, this has been known for many months already, but it has been difficult to implement targeted policies against this, mostly because it isn't' an easy concept. But as the article point out, if you shut down the superspreaders you can be rewarded with a 80% cut of infections.

[maarsen]

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Pretty much. Also economy is much more than the super-rich and the stock markets, it's the stuff we eat, the medicines, the health system, the electricity and fuel, the transport, the water supply, etc. All of which require workers, and other workers to support them and so on. The economy "is one great web, and a man dare not touch a single strand lest all the others tremble".

Economics is human behaviour. It is not robot behaviour. Without people there is no economy and no reason to have one.

[lessthanluke]

13 minutes ago, maarsen said:

Economics is human behaviour. It is not robot behaviour. Without people there is no economy and no reason to have one.

And without an economy lots of people will die. As Chats said they are intertwined. 

[BigFatCoward]

50 minutes ago, lessthanluke said:

And without an economy lots of people will die. As Chats said they are intertwined. 

In the 10 years of austerity even conservative estimates show that far more people died than are ever likely to die from covid. And we are looking at another similar decade. 

[rotting sea cow]

5 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

In the 10 years of austerity even conservative estimates show that far more people died than are ever likely to die from covid. And we are looking at another similar decade. 

Many countries have already done this calculus. It is hard. Bangladesh or India cannot afford a lockdown without facing widespread famine and other problems.

This virus is weird. It is clearly more dangerous than the Flu but it's not a monster like Ebola, MERS or even SARS1. Left unchecked, it will kill lots of people, but not enough to really make a dent in the world population. The death rate is heavily age stratified, putting societies in a moral dilemma.

[Ormond]

1 hour ago, lessthanluke said:

And without an economy lots of people will die. As Chats said they are intertwined. 

In South Wales? You really think a lot of people are going to starve to death in the UK because of this? I really doubt that.

And it is extremely unlikely that any increase in suicide will be equal to the number of people who would die from Covid-19 without restrictions. Plus there is also an increased suicide rate in people who have been recently bereaved, so not having any restrictions would also lead to increased deaths from suicide as well as the Covid-19 deaths themselves. "Intertwining" goes more than one way here.

[lessthanluke]

6 minutes ago, Ormond said:

In South Wales? You really think a lot of people are going to starve to death in the UK because of this? I really doubt that.

And it is extremely unlikely that any increase in suicide will be equal to the number of people who would die from Covid-19 without restrictions. Plus there is also an increased suicide rate in people who have been recently bereaved, so not having any restrictions would also lead to increased deaths from suicide as well as the Covid-19 deaths themselves. "Intertwining" goes more than one way here.

I don't actually live in South Wales anymore but the Valleys already has massive issues with poverty, has one of the highest unemployment rates in the UK, massive food Bank usage already, massive issues with homelessness. 

I was however talking about everywhere. I also didn't mention starvation anywhere in my post so you may be a little confused. 

[Ormond]

20 minutes ago, lessthanluke said:

I don't actually live in South Wales anymore but the Valleys already has massive issues with poverty, has one of the highest unemployment rates in the UK, massive food Bank usage already, massive issues with homelessness. 

I was however talking about everywhere. I also didn't mention starvation anywhere in my post so you may be a little confused. 

So what causes of death other than starvation and suicide could there be because of Covid-19 restrictions? I think the increase in deaths from people not getting medical treatment for other issues (due to fear of going to hospitals or doctors' offices when one has symptoms of heart disease, cancer, etc.) is going to be there because of the pandemic whether one has government imposed restrictions or not.  Lack of government restrictions might actually increase that problem because people would be more afraid of going to medical facilities where people were not wearing masks, etc.