Covid-19 #17: Covid Is For Ever

[Kalbear]

8 minutes ago, lessthanluke said:

Thank you.  I am indeed super fucking stressed as is everyone else atm I guess. 

I've lost 3 friends so far to suicide during the pandemic so I sympathise. It does fucking suck. 

I'm so sorry to hear that. That's horrible. 

[lessthanluke]

I also don't mean to imply rules should just be disregarded. I 100 percent support mask wearing, social distancing measures, cleaning etc etc but as our respective governments seem to refuse to actually support people financially there has to be a middle ground found otherwise I think we're all going to be completely fucked in 6 months time. 

But again that may just be my personal circumstances talking and what I'm seeing day to day. 

 

[Fragile Bird]

25 minutes ago, lessthanluke said:

Thank you.  I am indeed super fucking stressed as is everyone else atm I guess. 

I've lost 3 friends so far to suicide during the pandemic so I sympathise. It does fucking suck. 

As someone who has seen a number of suicides over the years, you have my heartfelt sympathies. Here in Canada the issue has become opioid deaths, ironically because people are getting decent money from government programs during the pandemic, and with the borders closed local drug dealers are concocting a witches brew of shit to sell to the desperate.

Between the US government and the UK government there’s a lot of justice that needs to be meted out.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Right from the beginning of the pandemic I surmised that the toll on the medically vulnerable groups (dominantly seniors) was only one problem. In addition I was immediately worried about the vast swath of service workers (dominantly younger people) who were going to be hit with colossal job and income losses.

Indeed it has been reported that over 50% of 18-29 yr olds in the U.S. lived with parents at some point this year. That is extremely high and a percent not seen at any time since the Great Depression.

And we are still in the middle of this, not the end.

It's all so numbingly bleak. I cannot pretend that things are okay with so many people suffering, not just with the infected but also the financially devastated, they are both tragic situations.

[kairparavel]

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

For three years I have been planning to go Washington DC for Worldcon and I have hoped others would join me to dine at the restaurant Mercenary Chef runs, whatever the cost. 

Sadly another plan that will canceled by Covid-19, among other reasons. The MC meal I mean. They eliminated his position a little over a month ago. 

And it's not just hospitality. I managed to switch careers, essentially, after 4 months of furlough (I tried something new! ). And hurray, it's with a government-funded agency 200 million budget shortfall. Public comments started the other say on the board's proposed plans to address it including reduction of service/hours, to eliminating contractors, furlough days, or layoffs! So great to be part of the non-represented side.

But anyways, all that to say public transportation across the country is in dire circumstances and one more thing that could be severely damaged without federal funding. 

[Altherion]

2 hours ago, Kalibear said:

It's actually pretty easy to solve the above - you throw money at it. You can't do the same thing with covid. 

Throwing money at a problem is easy if you have money to throw. There are some countries that can use this approach, but there are many others which either don't control their own currency or know that printing cash will simply lead to inflation and are either not trusted enough to borrow hard currency or are obligated by treaty to keep deficits low. Also, even the countries that can afford to throw money at the problem can only throw enough of it to limit the damage, not to completely avoid it (partly because it's already insanely expensive and partly because it would created unwanted incentives). For example, in the US, many restaurants and retailers and other businesses (large and small) have gone bankrupt despite the unprecedented peacetime spending.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Altherion said:

For example, in the US, many restaurants and retailers and other businesses (large and small) have gone bankrupt despite the unprecedented peacetime spending.

Most of that money dried up months ago. A lot of the other money went to places that really didn't need it. 

[ljkeane]

3 hours ago, lessthanluke said:

I've lost 3 friends so far to suicide during the pandemic so I sympathise. It does fucking suck. 

Bloody hell, that's awful. Sorry to hear that Luke.

[lessthanluke]

Thank you for the condolences folks. It's been a rough few months. 

Just riles me slightly when people seem to dismiss the other affects of the pandemic when it's also killing people. 

(this isn't really directed at anyone in this thread BTW just venting hah) 

I know everyone is struggling just finding everything a tad overwhelming at times recently. 

[Red Tiger]

Here in the Netherlands the minister of Justice and Security especially pissed me off. He is the guy responsible for handing out punishments for not obeying the Covid laws, yet he also had a huge wedding where none of his guests kept their distance. His only punishment was a fine of 390 euros.

[Zorral]

[[mod note: removed a quote and a direct response to it because it was harmful, given other revelations in this thread.]] 

One of my friends has cancer.  She's in the hospital right this minute waiting for surgery.  Her husband's school keeps saying they have to stop distance learning and have all the kids in the school room with f2f teaching.  COME ON!

In the meantime, because of all the reopening and the High Holy Days, in one day, from yesterday today, the new cases and hospitalizations have DOUBLED.  They doubled before that, from Friday, over the weekend, to Monday.  Yet the mayor insists indoor dining happens tomorrow, and today the school reopened.  There aren't even enough teachers, because a lot of them have said why should I die so a corporate restaurant millionaire can keep being a millionaire?  EVERYWHERE the rates of infection flattened and went down -- us to 1% -- immediately the rates rise, the hots spots emerge and covid wildfires again.

What are you going to do when the health workers say, like the teachers did, enough is enough is enough.

Which they would have every right to do.

In the meantime that Mitzva Tank call it, parks all over the city,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitzvah_tank

while rabbis try to lure people inside to sign up for Israel trips on which they make money.  These are essentially RVs that they've decorated with scrolls.  This is insane, especially in view that last week already 3 rabbis died of covid in Brooklyn.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-cuomo-schools-testing-20200929-n36cmscdxzaplkwkp3vlms3zqe-story.html

It's in these communities that it all began here in the first place last winter.

No way would I ever set foot in a restaurant (we get our groceries delivered and tip %25 -- above the hefty delivery charge, and get other things from the outdoor Farmer's Market)  a movie theater, a gym, etc. But because other people won't abide, I have to stay in -- starting month frackin' 8 of it.  My partner and I are vulnerable too.  And we're working, working, working our asses off to survive both financially and emotionally.

We can make food banks and food distribution.  We can put  moritorium on evictions and mortgaes and so on.  But as someone else wisely said, WE CANNOT PUT ANY MORITORIUM ON COVID EXCEPT BY KEEPING PEOPLE FROM GATHERING TOGETHER IN ANY NUMBERS AND BY WEARING MASKS.

 

 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

5 hours ago, lessthanluke said:

Thank you.  I am indeed super fucking stressed as is everyone else atm I guess. 

I've lost 3 friends so far to suicide during the pandemic so I sympathise. It does fucking suck. 

Oof, that's tough man, my condolences to you.

Possibly of interest in a discussion about what is contributing to such tragic events for people is that here we've seen a reduction in suicides compared to previous years. It's possibly partly due to the fact that our govt has tried to convey that it actually cares about people's life, health and wellbeing and has framed it's COVID response consistently in these terms. And it has spent $billions to help support jobs and incomes. We were in the very fortunate position of actually being able to shoot for elimination, which for probably much or all of Europe and North America was never going to be possible once the respective govts started paying attention (whether govts could have started paying attention earlier is possibly another conversation), so it is also perhaps interesting to contemplate the effect on the nation's mental health of the achievement of elimination and being pretty well COVID-free and having no restrictions within the country during the bulk of winter. Economically NZ has not fared better that the world at large. So if our collective mental health is doing OK through this, it's not because we are feeling better about job security or our economic future. Having said all that, New Zealand does have a depressingly high baseline suicide rate, so it's not like our state of mental health in normal times is anything to brag about.

New Zealand has mostly got international attention for having achieved, albeit temporarily and may be close to doing it a second time, elimination. But I think the better success story in the end may be the govt having tried to navigate this thing with some compassion for the people. My observation about people in New Zealand is that we/they are worried and concerned, but I don't think there is a high amount of stress or anxiety. I think it's because there is a collective sense that "we're all in this together." Even though that is an actual lie, because there are plenty of people who have not suffered one bit during this pandemic, and some of those people are the ones who are complaining about too many restrictions (OK, they have "suffered" in the same way Ellen DeGeneres suffered by having to be confined to her "prison" with her "prison-wife"). 

And then there is the UK's unique situation of there being a lot of Brexit anxiety on top of COVID anxiety. If Brexit goes half as badly as some people think it might then basket case is what the UK could become. 

 

[Xray the Enforcer]

6 hours ago, lessthanluke said:

I've lost 3 friends so far to suicide during the pandemic so I sympathise. It does fucking suck. 

Fuck, man. I'm so incredibly sorry. That's horrible.

[Zorral]

Ya opening the 'economy' works so well for workers:

"Disney is laying off 28,000 employees as pandemic hammers its theme parks"

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/29/media/disney-parks-layoffs/index.html

WHEN WILL PEOPLE LEARN??????????????????????????????????????????????????

 

[Clueless Northman]

On 9/29/2020 at 9:05 PM, Chataya de Fleury said:

I fully agree. Make proper (no fucking masks below the nose, people!) mask wearing indoors in public spaces compulsory, with a fine for non-compliance, increasing if habitual. Same with social distancing (though honestly, most people are really good about that.)

Actually, when it comes to people not wearing masks when mandatory, I'd have a different approach: take them immediately to a quarantine hospital, test them for coronavirus, and lock them down there until the test comes in - no matter what they were doing or where they were going, fuck them after all they're just scumbags.

The reasoning is simple: first, people too fucking stupid to wear masks are obviously far more at risk of catching covid than any regular mask-wearing denizen, so there's a basic public health logic to testing them systematically. Odds are that you'll catch way more infected people this way than by randomly testing people. Second, of course, having them stuck for a couple of days is a serious punishment, odds are their employer / school will get mad at them, which will be highly deserved. So this should quickly dissuade the assholes of acting like jerks.

 

23 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

here we've seen a reduction in suicides compared to previous years. It's possibly partly due to the fact that our govt has tried to convey that it actually cares about people's life, health and wellbeing and has framed it's COVID response consistently in these terms. And it has spent $billions to help support jobs and incomes.

I think the first elimination helped a lot. People didn't despair because they assumed it could be truly over. If you're in the US or Spain right now, you're wondering if this shit will ever end, which is terrible, because you pretty much can't plan anything, have any project left in your life, and I can easily see why people would be massively depressed.

That said, in such a case, I wouldn't put the blame on lockdown measures. I would put 100% of the blame on the idiots in charge of the government who actually allowed things to get out of hand. They deserve to be fired and jailed for the biggest policy failure since WWII. It is this failure, their failure, which caused the economy to crash and burn.

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, Clueless Northman said:

I think the first elimination helped a lot. People didn't despair because they assumed it could be truly over. If you're in the US or Spain right now, you're wondering if this shit will ever end, which is terrible, because you pretty much can't plan anything, have any project left in your life, and I can easily see why people would be massively depressed.

That said, in such a case, I wouldn't put the blame on lockdown measures. I would put 100% of the blame on the idiots in charge of the government who actually allowed things to get out of hand. They deserve to be fired and jailed for the biggest policy failure since WWII. It is this failure, their failure, which caused the economy to crash and burn.

Maybe I guess. But then look at Sweden. A cursory look at the pandemic track in Sweden would make you assume similar things as Spain, the USA, UK etc, and that mental health should be very bad there too. But it appears not. Perhaps it's about trust and confidence that the govt has its heart in the right place even if its head isn't. Though most Swedes you see on TV and the internet think the govt has both its head and heart in the right place. And perhaps for Sweden they are right, who are we to say? And, of course, when it's all over and the reviews happen Swedish policy makers may need to answer for hundreds, if not thousands, of unnecessary deaths just like the policy makers in many other countries; or not.

[Zorral]

4 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

They deserve to be fired and jailed for the biggest policy failure since WWII.

They should be impaled.  They have no excuse.  The information is THERE and always has been but they peverted, degraded and ignored the information because 'economy' matters, not people's lives, as if the economy can function without people to do the work.

They are still doing that argument.

[Crixus]

According to this article, apart from R, a key factor seems to k which is dispersion, pointing to stuff like super-spreader events and their link to people in closed spaces for extended periods of time with poor ventilation. So, restaurants, churches/places of worship, gyms and so on. It also talks about 'back-tracing' to control clusters, something which Japan did effectively, for instance. Essentially, this may indicate that a lot of the time most people in certain conditions aren't going to be as contagious, so the focus should shift a bit to containing situations that fit the description above: crowds, closed spaces, extended time, poor ventilation. 

It's something we've been reading/hearing for a while now, but it just seems that if governments are able to focus on these aspects, they could perhaps achieve a balance between the economy and infection. 

Link: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ 

 

[DaveSumm]

4 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Hey, let’s not get kerfluffled...the economy and people’s lives are intertwined.

There is no zero-sum game between the economy and public health.

Indeed. It’s a hard conversation to have, but at some point the economic costs will have to carry more weight in the equation. How on Earth you draw the line, how you decide how many deaths are worth how much poverty and all the hardship (and death) that brings is for better minds than mine. I’m currently unemployed after my company called it quits (directly Covid related) and I’m fortunate that I’ve got some saved up, but I have no clue what finding a job will look like once that runs out.

It’s interesting how Covid teases us with the possibility that there’s a ‘solution’ to all this, that there might just be some magic combination that allows businesses to open and cases to remain stable if we could just figure out what that is. In the UK, we had schools and pubs open for a reasonable period of time before cases escalated, but something tipped it over the edge and now we’re on the climb again. But it’s very important to remember for future pandemics that viruses don’t owe us a solution: it’s not a Sudoku with a guaranteed solution. Even slightly deadlier or slightly more contagious and we’d be looking at two unthinkable options, let the economy collapse or let millions die.

[rotting sea cow]

4 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Hey, let’s not get kerfluffled...the economy and people’s lives are intertwined.

There is no zero-sum game between the economy and public health.

Pretty much. Also economy is much more than the super-rich and the stock markets, it's the stuff we eat, the medicines, the health system, the electricity and fuel, the transport, the water supply, etc. All of which require workers, and other workers to support them and so on. The economy "is one great web, and a man dare not touch a single strand lest all the others tremble".