Tywin Foresaw the war

[The Young Maester]

He called upon the brave companions and other mercenaries from essos. It would have taken months for these mercenaries to arrive at lannisport all the way from essos.

My guess is that when Ned was named Hand, Tywin saw it as a possible threat to his legacy. He definitely knows Ned isnt very fond of him or his kingslaying son. And knowing Ned, he was probably very cold towards tywin whenever they met, either at the greyjoy rebellion or the sack of kings landing.

Now Jon Arryn seemed to have no problems with Tywin. He obviously encouraged keeping jamie on the kingsguard to keep tywin in check. But other than that he rarely tried to undermine tywin. Jon is also described as a cautious man and unlike Ned, he is less likely to start a war for the murder of 2 babes that meant nothing to him.

Ned was clearly a man of action. His dislike for the lannisters plus his soldier mentality is what gave Tywin the signs that stark will attempt to undermine his familys power.

Moving on, Ned wasnt his only problem. Tywin was also worried of the baratheon brothers. It was clear that renly was plotting with loras, plus his dislike towards joffrey and the queen dosent help much. For a man like Tywin it dosent take much to put the pieces together and realise that the scheming fools want to replace cersei with margaery as queen. Renly wasnt even discreet about it, he got a portrait of Margaery and asked Ned if she looks like Lyanna. Than you have Stannis whom was brooding in dragonstone, with the entire royal fleet.

You also have the fact that Lysa disliked Cersei. And would clearly side with her kin of riverrun and winterfell over anything else (obviously this wasnt the case, but who would guess that the women was mad enough to ignore her allies). Tywin probably saw Ned as the leader of this three-way alliance of vale-north-riverlands.

So you had the vengeful dornish and plotting tyrells with their friend Renly to his south, the strong alliance that outnumbers him to his east and north, and the annoying ironborn to his west. He saw potential enemies everywhere, and he was right on preparing for war early on because as soon as the war started all but 2 of the great houses were up and against house lannister.

When Catelyn took tyrion prisoner (which to many seemed to make no sense), Tywin definitely thought that this was the starks moving against him. This was further strengthened by the fact that cat took tyrion to her sister.

So Tywin decided to take the war to them, and invade a key ally of the arryns and starks. Neutralise the threat of the riverlands, and attempt to fight the whole of westeros all by himself.

It sounds very silly and over complicated, however this is the only thing that to me would justify how the hells did the brave companions and other essosi mercenaries make it all the way to the westerlands in such short notice.

[frenin]

16 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

It sounds very silly and over complicated, however this is the only thing that to me would justify how the hells did the brave companions and other essosi mercenaries make it all the way to the westerlands in such short notice.

Wel, maybe he wants to have them in hand. My theory is that he got wind of Stannis hiring mercenaries, this one without a shadow of doubt knew that war was coming and knew why it would come, and hired the mercs just because.

 

16 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

My guess is that when Ned was named Hand, Tywin saw it as a possible threat to his legacy. He definitely knows Ned isnt very fond of him or his kingslaying son. And knowing Ned, he was probably very cold towards tywin whenever they met, either at the greyjoy rebellion or the sack of kings landing.

Tywin knows that Ned's not very fond of his family and that is no bueno for him to be Hand. 

However, Tywin is now Robert's family and Eddard is nothing if not loyal. Tywin has no reason to suspect that Ned would act against Robert himself and his sons.

And Ned would have no reason to suspect foul play had Lysa not framed the Lannisters in her shitty letter. 

 

 

16 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

Moving on, Ned wasnt his only problem. Tywin was also worried of the baratheon brothers. It was clear that renly was plotting with loras, plus his dislike towards joffrey and the queen dosent help much. For a man like Tywin it dosent take much to put the pieces together and realise that the scheming fools want to replace cersei with margaery as queen. Renly wasnt even discreet about it, he got a portrait of Margaery and asked Ned if she looks like Lyanna. Than you have Stannis whom was brooding in dragonstone, with the entire royal fleet.

Sure but replacing Cersei with Margaery doesn't mean altering her children positions. Those would still be Robert's heirs. I'm sure Tywin knew, Pycelle knew ergo Tywin did.

 

 

16 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

So Tywin decided to take the war to them, and invade a key ally of the arryns and starks. Neutralise the threat of the riverlands, and attempt to fight the whole of westeros all by himself.

He actually tried to do that. Nah, i don't really think he expected heat from the Reach after Robert's death. I'd say he was ready to fight most of Westeros. Not all, and tbf if he felt they were all after him, what else could he do.

Yet again, once King's Landing falls to his daughter and Ned's seized and so are his daughters, he had exactly zero reasons to start shit with the Starks and Tullys, he does it anyways.

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

What if someone contracted  the mummer mercenaries to be available in Westeros  for Tywin to hire? Knowing Tywin would hire any and all sell swords. The mummers do what they were paid to do.

[Bernie Mac]

20 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

He called upon the brave companions and other mercenaries from essos. It would have taken months for these mercenaries to arrive at lannisport all the way from essos.

How do you know he called them from Essos?

Sellswords can be in Westeros without the need of war, we can see an example of this in the History of the Westerlands

Lord Stackspear doubled the taxes on his smallfolk, though Lord Tytos forbade it, then hired a company of Volantene sellswords to enforce his onerous exactions.

And it is not like this is the type of unit that is going to change the outcome of a war. Tywin himself think they are only good for dog's work.

"The Qohorik?" Ser Daven spat. "That's for him and all his Brave Companions. I told your father I would forage for him, but he refused me. Some tasks are fit for lions, he said, but foraging is best left for goats and dogs."

If Tywin was predicting a war, why only a few hundred sellswords?

Why leave Cersei exposed in Kings Landing, why not send competent support? Instead she relies on a teenage Lancel.

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My guess is that when Ned was named Hand, Tywin saw it as a possible threat to his legacy. He definitely knows Ned isnt very fond of him or his kingslaying son. And knowing Ned, he was probably very cold towards tywin whenever they met, either at the greyjoy rebellion or the sack of kings landing.

And yet we see from Tyrion's POV that Tywin did not expect the North to join the war. He's blindsided by it. to Tyrion's amusement.

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It sounds very silly and over complicated, however this is the only thing that to me would justify how the hells did the brave companions and other essosi mercenaries make it all the way to the westerlands in such short notice.

How do you know they were not already in Westeros? The Brave Companions clearly recruit from the West. The idea that they can only be in Westeros to fight a war is not really that logical. On top of that the Tyroshi is just a sellsword, in command of the other sellswords. We do not know if there are other companies with Tywin other than the Brave Companions.

[The Young Maester]

21 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

How do you know he called them from Essos?

Sellswords can be in Westeros without the need of war, we can see an example of this in the History of the Westerlands

Lord Stackspear doubled the taxes on his smallfolk, though Lord Tytos forbade it, then hired a company of Volantene sellswords to enforce his onerous exactions.

And it is not like this is the type of unit that is going to change the outcome of a war. Tywin himself think they are only good for dog's work.

"The Qohorik?" Ser Daven spat. "That's for him and all his Brave Companions. I told your father I would forage for him, but he refused me. Some tasks are fit for lions, he said, but foraging is best left for goats and dogs."

If Tywin was predicting a war, why only a few hundred sellswords?

Why leave Cersei exposed in Kings Landing, why not send competent support? Instead she relies on a teenage Lancel.

And yet we see from Tyrion's POV that Tywin did not expect the North to join the war. He's blindsided by it. to Tyrion's amusement.

How do you know they were not already in Westeros? The Brave Companions clearly recruit from the West. The idea that they can only be in Westeros to fight a war is not really that logical. On top of that the Tyroshi is just a sellsword, in command of the other sellswords. We do not know if there are other companies with Tywin other than the Brave Companions.

I’m taking into factor that Westeros sees very little wars. It isn’t the ideal place for sellsword companies. So it would make sense for the mercenaries to come from essos.

However it is AGOT, and their is allot of mistakes and regrets that George had. Like I remember he forgot about the tyrosh company that turned cloak to robb. In later books we never hear of them because he forgot about them. So whether he decided to just have them appear in the Westerands during the time of tywins muster, than it seems very possible.

[Rose of Red Lake]

For all of that, he still couldn't see how his own family's actions, including his own actions, might actually put them at risk. Being a shitty father and grandfather, being duped by Cersei/Jaime, being blase about Cersei and Joffrey's temperament.

 

[TheLastWolf]

Title/OP

Spoiler

Tywin is the 3EC 

 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On 12/23/2020 at 5:34 PM, The Young Maester said:

He called upon the brave companions and other mercenaries from essos. It would have taken months for these mercenaries to arrive at lannisport all the way from essos.

My guess is that when Ned was named Hand, Tywin saw it as a possible threat to his legacy. He definitely knows Ned isnt very fond of him or his kingslaying son. And knowing Ned, he was probably very cold towards tywin whenever they met, either at the greyjoy rebellion or the sack of kings landing.

Now Jon Arryn seemed to have no problems with Tywin. He obviously encouraged keeping jamie on the kingsguard to keep tywin in check. But other than that he rarely tried to undermine tywin. Jon is also described as a cautious man and unlike Ned, he is less likely to start a war for the murder of 2 babes that meant nothing to him.

Ned was clearly a man of action. His dislike for the lannisters plus his soldier mentality is what gave Tywin the signs that stark will attempt to undermine his familys power.

Moving on, Ned wasnt his only problem. Tywin was also worried of the baratheon brothers. It was clear that renly was plotting with loras, plus his dislike towards joffrey and the queen dosent help much. For a man like Tywin it dosent take much to put the pieces together and realise that the scheming fools want to replace cersei with margaery as queen. Renly wasnt even discreet about it, he got a portrait of Margaery and asked Ned if she looks like Lyanna. Than you have Stannis whom was brooding in dragonstone, with the entire royal fleet.

You also have the fact that Lysa disliked Cersei. And would clearly side with her kin of riverrun and winterfell over anything else (obviously this wasnt the case, but who would guess that the women was mad enough to ignore her allies). Tywin probably saw Ned as the leader of this three-way alliance of vale-north-riverlands.

So you had the vengeful dornish and plotting tyrells with their friend Renly to his south, the strong alliance that outnumbers him to his east and north, and the annoying ironborn to his west. He saw potential enemies everywhere, and he was right on preparing for war early on because as soon as the war started all but 2 of the great houses were up and against house lannister.

When Catelyn took tyrion prisoner (which to many seemed to make no sense), Tywin definitely thought that this was the starks moving against him. This was further strengthened by the fact that cat took tyrion to her sister.

So Tywin decided to take the war to them, and invade a key ally of the arryns and starks. Neutralise the threat of the riverlands, and attempt to fight the whole of westeros all by himself.

It sounds very silly and over complicated, however this is the only thing that to me would justify how the hells did the brave companions and other essosi mercenaries make it all the way to the westerlands in such short notice.

Tywin was the author of this war . His plan was to get rid of Robert when Pycelle told him that Robert intended to divorce Cercei , and will the assistance of these mercenaries deal with the Baratheon brothers . Since Ned never played a part in this game of thrones Tywin would feel that his greatest threat came from the Reach .

[frenin]

7 hours ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

Tywin was the author of this war . His plan was to get rid of Robert when Pycelle told him that Robert intended to divorce Cercei

He would need more than the Brave Companions to go tp war against the crown.

[Bernie Mac]

On 12/25/2020 at 4:36 PM, The Young Maester said:

I’m taking into factor that Westeros sees very little wars. It isn’t the ideal place for sellsword companies. So it would make sense for the mercenaries to come from essos.

But that does not mean there are not sellswords in Westeros. The quote I gave you was a time of relative peace and yet a Westerland Lord outsourced his tax collecting to an Essos sellsword company.

The Brave Companions may well have already been in the West, given their recruitment also seems to be mostly from Westeros

GRRM: No, I think the Brave Companions go back further than the goat, although they are not as old as some of the other sellsword companies. Nor as young as others. It is not especially a Qohorik company either. The Mummers are basically scum from all over the west, and a few from the east and south.

The Brave Companions, a relatively small company of 100-200 men, it nothing. That is not going to swing any war. If Tywin saw a war coming and this is what he brought over he'd be an idiot.

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However it is AGOT, and their is allot of mistakes and regrets that George had. Like I remember he forgot about the tyrosh company that turned cloak to robb.

Company? You mean soldier?

Question; Second; what did Robb do with the Tyroshi sellsword who dipped his banners at Riverrun?

Answer: I don't know what Robb did with him... but =I= forgot all about him, I blush to admit.

We have no evidence that there was an Tyroshs sellsword army, we just know that a Tyroshi led Jaime's freeriders.

"He retreated in good order when he saw that the other camps were lost, with two thousand spears and as many bowmen, but the Tyroshi sellsword who led his freeriders struck his banners and went over to the foe."

"Curse the man." His uncle Kevan sounded more angry than surprised. "I warned Jaime not to trust that one. A man who fights for coin is loyal only to his purse."

 

Freeriders are pretty common throughout Westeros. And when news broke out about the arrest of Tyrion they were flocking to Tywin

 

Littlefinger lifted an eyebrow. "In future, try not to let any horses fall on it. I would urge you to heal quickly. The realm grows restive. Varys has heard ominous whispers from the west. Freeriders and sellswords have been flocking to Casterly Rock, and not for the thin pleasure of Lord Tywin's conversation."

"Is there word of the king?" Ned demanded. "Just how long does Robert intend to hunt?"

 

Men saw the chance to make some coin.

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In later books we never hear of them because he forgot about them. So whether he decided to just have them appear in the Westerands during the time of tywins muster, than it seems very possible.

He did forget about him. He may have been one man, of little importance. There is no reason why he should remember him. GRRM points out that there is a Tyroshi sellsword still running around the Riverlands, but could not say were he was from.

Another person GRRM 'forgot about' was Mallor the Dornishman.

I vow, the Lannisters lost ten men for every one of ours that fell. We've taken close to a hundred knights captive, and a dozen lords bannermen. Lord Westerling, Lord Banefort, Ser Garth Greenfield, Lord Estren, Ser Tytos Brax, Mallor the Dornishman … and three Lannisters besides Jaime, Lord Tywin's own nephews, two of his sister's sons and one of his dead brother's …"

We never hear about Mallor again, and that guy sounded far more interesting than the Tyroshi.

[Bernie Mac]

On 12/28/2020 at 6:09 AM, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

Tywin was the author of this war . His plan was to get rid of Robert when Pycelle told him that Robert intended to divorce Cercei ,

When did that happen?