Surprisingly dumb moves made by clever or smart characters

[Arthur Peres]

On 12/11/2022 at 3:27 PM, sifth said:

He literally asks Tywin for a peace offer, even after he's already doing Tywin's work for him and he's too stupid to realize this.

It's worse... He asked for a alliance.

[sifth]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I've given in the very first post. "His own maester". Robert could've sent any maester that was campaigning but he sent "his own maester". Since Cressen has been the maester of SE since Baratheon brothers were just little children witnessing their parents ship getting wrecked in sipbreaker bay, Robert's "his own maester" is Cressen. 

I've already given examples of those maesters quite possibly being maesters of other lords who joined the campaign.

We're going in circles now, you clearly view it as a plot hole and think it impossible for Robert to have more than one maester and I do not. That's the long and short of it.

[Craving Peaches]

Surely in this scenario it's more likely (and more likely to be what the author intended) that Robert just sent a maester other than Cressen to tend to Barristan's wounds, rather than Cressen having the ability to teleport, as funny as it is?

[Corvo the Crow]

9 hours ago, sifth said:

We're going in circles now, you clearly view it as a plot hole and think it impossible for Robert to have more than one maester and I do not. That's the long and short of it.

No I don’t think Robert having more than one maester impossible, I know Robert didn’t have more than one maester “of his own”. Obviously with so many lords there would be several maesters around attending Robert or any of the 4 major leaders as they require. It’s not like plot holes are non existent, there are many of them big and small. Perhaps you’d say Renly getting blue eyes means that he’s wighted as well and not a plot hole since change of eye color to blue is important in the plot, signifying wightification.

 

8 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Surely in this scenario it's more likely (and more likely to be what the author intended) that Robert just sent a maester other than Cressen to tend to Barristan's wounds, rather than Cressen having the ability to teleport, as funny as it is?

Robert didn’t “sent a maester” or “personally sent a maester” or such, he “sent his own maester.” Of course Cressen didn’t teleport, it’s an inconsistency, a small, unimportant hole in the plot but even Cressen teleporting has a more sound base than some theories out there that are, well, really out there.

At the time of this being written, Cressen probably didn’t even exist.  

[astarkchoice]

On 12/11/2022 at 7:06 PM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

They don't, but he thinks they do. He sincerely believed that he could make Tywin and the Iron Throne recognize his independence and let him have the North. 

Balon is that stupid and insane.

Its not really all that daft..as the old.phrase says it never hurts to ask plus both mace threll and lord redwyne were all for it! It gives balon some clarity on where he stands

If tywin recognises his claim to all the realm  he can focus on his northern campaign

If hes refused or not given the dignity of a response he knows where he stands and he has another enemy to deal with BUT one who's royal fleet is smashed and the redwyne and possibly westerlands fleets will soon have to  engage stannis on dragonstone  1st..... allowing him to prepare such as maybe burning their harbours while they are away.

 

We must Bear in mind balon doesnt have our hindsight or perfect information as a book reader when considering his move here

He like 99% of all lords (even most northern ones) has 0 idea robb can still move north bypassing moat calilln with secret swamp routes

He has 0 idea the riverlands+ robbs trapped forces(and the mysteriously quiet vale) arent going to engage in a protracted war vs  the new tyrell lannister alliance who will also be trying to finish stannis...he like most lords  doesnt know this is about to be resolved quickly with a wedding!

 

[TheLastWolf]

Anything Dany

[sifth]

All of Dany's villains in the third book.

[Craving Peaches]

40 minutes ago, sifth said:

All of Dany's villains in the third book.

I get they were really excited by the dragons and stuff, but is that really enough to make their brains switch off temporarily? They were so silly with the Unsullied it's a wonder no one tried to pull that before.

[sifth]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

I get they were really excited by the dragons and stuff, but is that really enough to make their brains switch off temporarily? They were so silly with the Unsullied it's a wonder no one tried to pull that before.

It's the equivalent of two people in the desert making a trade; a diamond for a new gun and the guy trading away the gun, being too stupid to realize the other person is just going to shot him with it and take the diamond back, after the trade is made.

[Corvo the Crow]

10 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Its not really all that daft..as the old.phrase says it never hurts to ask plus both mace threll and lord redwyne were all for it! It gives balon some clarity on where he stands

If tywin recognises his claim to all the realm  he can focus on his northern campaign

If hes refused or not given the dignity of a response he knows where he stands and he has another enemy to deal with BUT one who's royal fleet is smashed and the redwyne and possibly westerlands fleets will soon have to  engage stannis on dragonstone  1st..... allowing him to prepare such as maybe burning their harbours while they are away.

 

We must Bear in mind balon doesnt have our hindsight or perfect information as a book reader when considering his move here

He like 99% of all lords (even most northern ones) has 0 idea robb can still move north bypassing moat calilln with secret swamp routes

He has 0 idea the riverlands+ robbs trapped forces(and the mysteriously quiet vale) arent going to engage in a protracted war vs  the new tyrell lannister alliance who will also be trying to finish stannis...he like most lords  doesnt know this is about to be resolved quickly with a wedding!

 

He has 0 idea that Tywin can return West(which he can't) but it doesn't provoke him into an attack to Tywin. Balon is plain dumb, as most Ironmen are.

[Arthur Peres]

12 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Its not really all that daft..as the old.phrase says it never hurts to ask plus both mace threll and lord redwyne were all for it! It gives balon some clarity on where he stands

It's beyond dumb. It's so irrational that looks like lunacy. 

He isn't asking Tywin for a alliance against the Starks to keep the land after the war... He is declaring rebellion against Tywin's grandson, then attacking the only person that has common goal with him, and then asking Tywin for a alliance. Balon was not a idiot, he was crazy. His moves makes no sense, Theon had no more hindsight than him, but saw the problems of Balon's idea on the spot and called Balon crazy.

“Have you gone mad?” “Take it, then,” he spat, his cheek still tingling. “Call yourself King of the Iron islands, no one will care . . . until the wars are over, and the victor looks about and spies the old fool perched off his shore with an iron crown on his head.”

 

[astarkchoice]

2 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

He has 0 idea that Tywin can return West(which he can't) but it doesn't provoke him into an attack to Tywin. Balon is plain dumb, as most Ironmen are.

Tywin might not be able to return west but kevan was already there rebuilding raw recruits and the survivors of robbs blitzkrieg into the large force that got ambushed at oxcross ...a few miles from lannisport. Not to mention casterly rock is near the sea so they have an unassailable defensive  command post right by the water which you can see for  hundreds of miles around! That and the westerlands is a fraction of the size of the north and is thus much much easier to orgainise a esponse to seaborne forces from and finaly it has a navy which is a massive differenc3 ....unless they can catch the whole westerlands fleet sleeping again ( unlikely) any seaborne invasion will be a headache.

[astarkchoice]

24 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

It's beyond dumb. It's so irrational that looks like lunacy. 

He isn't asking Tywin for a alliance against the Starks to keep the land after the war... He is declaring rebellion against Tywin's grandson, then attacking the only person that has common goal with him, and then asking Tywin for a alliance. Balon was not a idiot, he was crazy. His moves makes no sense, Theon had no more hindsight than him, but saw the problems of Balon's idea on the spot and called Balon crazy.

“Have you gone mad?” “Take it, then,” he spat, his cheek still tingling. “Call yourself King of the Iron islands, no one will care . . . until the wars are over, and the victor looks about and spies the old fool perched off his shore with an iron crown on his head.”

 

Hes taking the land regardless  from the much easier target. Tywin it seems will seemingly have his hands full waging war vs stannis ,riverlands , robbs army and possibly the vale, the offer alone caused some division with lords redwyne and tyrell

If tywin says yes and the crown  publicly renounces claim to the north  then excellent but more likely he says no thats fine nothing of value is lost . The redwyne fleet is set to redeploy anyway to root out stannis and his sellsail fleet thus once they leave the west coast the ironborne have a chance to ambush them ( on their way or back ) and a recent offer of alliance may help add suprise to that.

[Arthur Peres]

28 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Tywin might not be able to return west but kevan was already there rebuilding raw recruits and the survivors of robbs blitzkrieg into the large force that got ambushed at oxcross 

Nope. Kevan was with Tywin in Harenhall.

In charge of the westerlands was the incopetent Stafford Lannister, and like you said, they were raw recruits, poorly trained without any chance to stand a battle and were easily dealt with by Robb.

28 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Not to mention casterly rock is near the sea so they have an unassailable defensive  command post right by the water which you can see for  hundreds of miles around!

They don't need to go for Casterly Rock. Lannisport is rich enough, the Ironborn already proved to be capable of sacking it, and they would have more gold, thralls and plunder from Lannisport alone than what they got from the North, as Asha showed in the Kingsmoot. 

 

28 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

That and the westerlands is a fraction of the size of the north and is thus much much easier to orgainise a esponse to seaborne forces from and finaly it has a navy which is a massive differenc3 ....unless they can catch the whole westerlands fleet sleeping again ( unlikely) any seaborne invasion will be a headache.

The north is huge and the IB have no chance to hold it. It is also the place were tha IB navy would be less usefull. It has no plunder to be taken, and at that moment had more men willing to fight than the Westerlands.

Robb took out 20k men from the North. Tywin took out 35k men from the Westerlands and then lost another army in Oxcross.

The description of the men in the North are this

“The old castellan broke his shield wall, yes,” Asha said calmly. “What did you expect? This Ser Rodrik knows the land intimately, as the Cleftjaw does not, and many of the northmen were mounted. The ironborn lack the discipline to stand a charge of armored horse.

The Westerlands this:

"My mutton-headed uncle had not even troubled to post sentries, it would seem. His host was raw—apprentice boys, miners, field hands, fisherfolk, the sweepings of Lannisport."

[astarkchoice]

5 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I get they were really excited by the dragons and stuff, but is that really enough to make their brains switch off temporarily? They were so silly with the Unsullied it's a wonder no one tried to pull that before.

Who would though? They only deal nornaly with those with a vested interest in keeping the slave trade  going and slavers bay happy. 

Dany not only has what they need to rebuild their glory days but  to them appears weak (her reaction to their treatment of slaves) and everything about her theyve heard or can see would hint  her goals lie west not east  nor seemingly does she need any new powerful enemies to add to her list.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

13 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Its not really all that daft..as the old.phrase says it never hurts to ask plus both mace threll and lord redwyne were all for it! It gives balon some clarity on where he stands

If tywin recognises his claim to all the realm  he can focus on his northern campaign

If hes refused or not given the dignity of a response he knows where he stands and he has another enemy to deal with BUT one who's royal fleet is smashed and the redwyne and possibly westerlands fleets will soon have to  engage stannis on dragonstone  1st..... allowing him to prepare such as maybe burning their harbours while they are away.

 

We must Bear in mind balon doesnt have our hindsight or perfect information as a book reader when considering his move here

He like 99% of all lords (even most northern ones) has 0 idea robb can still move north bypassing moat calilln with secret swamp routes

He has 0 idea the riverlands+ robbs trapped forces(and the mysteriously quiet vale) arent going to engage in a protracted war vs  the new tyrell lannister alliance who will also be trying to finish stannis...he like most lords  doesnt know this is about to be resolved quickly with a wedding!

 

It is, because not only he was expecting Tywin and Joffrey to recongnise him as an equal and his independance, but as Tywin pointed out he essentially proposed nothing new, no valuable service for this possible alliance as he was already fighting the North for free.  

And Balon couldn't do much against the Lannister-Tyrell alliance with most of his forces being busy or sitting in the few northern castles he was holding and the rest surely not being enough to threaten Lannisport or Fair Isle or anywhere in the Reach.

[sifth]

1 minute ago, astarkchoice said:

Who would though? They only deal nornaly with those with a vested interest in keeping the slave trade  going and slavers bay happy. 

Dany not only has what they need to rebuild their glory days but  to them appears weak (her reaction to their treatment of slaves) and everything about her theyve heard or can see would hint  her goals lie west not east  nor seemingly does she need any new powerful enemies to add to her list.

They sold Dany their entire slave army, never even taking into account that Dany might use the army they just sold of them. That doesn't even take into account that they wanted one of Dany's dragons, but never took into account into asking her how to control the thing.

[Arthur Peres]

3 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Hes taking the land regardless  from the much easier target. Tywin it seems will seemingly have his hands full waging war vs stannis ,riverlands , robbs army and possibly the vale, the offer alone caused some division with lords redwyne and tyrell

 

Land he will never hold.

Tywin would never let go of the North, he holds Sansa, and would use her claim to take back the north the moment it was better for him, Balon never had a chance of making that deal work.

And the target was not easier... if anything it was harder. Logistics, and quality of troops at the moment all make the North a harder targert, and the north is the place were Balon's navy would be almost useless.

The description of the northem force is made of armored cavalry. In comparison we see the army of oxcross being described as raw, poorly trained, the sweeping of Lannisport. The castles in the westerlands are poorly garrisoned like the Crag wich shows how baddly drained they were, Balon needed to cut Robb from the north... Tywin was already cut from the west. Everything was harder in the north and for much less value.

[astarkchoice]

5 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Nope. Kevan was with Tywin in Harenhall.

In charge of the westerlands was the incopetent Stafford Lannister, and like you said, they were raw recruits, poorly trained without any chance to stand a battle and were easily dealt with by Robb.

They don't need to go for Casterly Rock. Lannisport is rich enough, the Ironborn already proved to be capable of sacking it, and they would have more gold, thralls and plunder from Lannisport alone than what they got from the North, as Asha showed in the Kingsmoot. 

 

The north is huge and the IB have no chance to hold it. It is also the place were tha IB navy would be less usefull. It has no plunder to be taken, and at that moment had more men willing to fight than the Westerlands.

Robb took out 20k men from the North. Tywin took out 35k men from the Westerlands and then lost another army in Oxcross.

The description of the men in the North are this

“The old castellan broke his shield wall, yes,” Asha said calmly. “What did you expect? This Ser Rodrik knows the land intimately, as the Cleftjaw does not, and many of the northmen were mounted. The ironborn lack the discipline to stand a charge of armored horse.

The Westerlands this:

"My mutton-headed uncle had not even troubled to post sentries, it would seem. His host was raw—apprentice boys, miners, field hands, fisherfolk, the sweepings of Lannisport."

Fair enough stafford but raw recruits and the remnants of lost battles can be trained into an army , the fact is they are assembled and have a much smaller area to cover to react to seaborne invaders 

Casterly rock will be close enough for defenders to sally out from to harass and if needed fall back to , lannisport they suprised utterly once. Gold they can get from raiding anywhere on planetos  its land , wood , farmland , game , fishing that they reallly  need to expand.

The westerlands is far smaller its forces much easier to concentrate and respond to naval invaders , the norths sheer size of coastline makes its an  wayyy easier target to  attack , the remaining 20-25k ( and not the best either )  at most northern forces are spread over a vast vast area with seemingly a fat coward, old men ,women (lady dustin) and boys in winterfell to lead any resistance and its navy is on the other side of westeros! 

 

[astarkchoice]

5 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Land he will never hold.

Tywin would never let go of the North, he holds Sansa, and would use her claim to take back the north the moment it was better for him, Balon never had a chance of making that deal work.

And the target was not easier... if anything it was harder. Logistics, and quality of troops at the moment all make the North a harder targert, and the north is the place were Balon's navy would be almost useless.

The description of the northem force is made of armored cavalry. In comparison we see the army of oxcross being described as raw, poorly trained, the sweeping of Lannisport. The castles in the westerlands are poorly garrisoned like the Crag wich shows how baddly drained they were, Balon needed to cut Robb from the north... Tywin was already cut from the west. Everything was harder in the north and for much less value.

Theres nothing at all to say he cant hold it  as history shows vikings did ,   a small area is easier to respond to seaborne invaders but vast territory means its much harder to amass foces to counter where they land

The northern forces are also described as green boys and old men , theon ambushes basicaly kids on his way to winterfell  most of the very  best went  south