HOTD Musings

[BlackLightning]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

From what leaks say regarding the Syrax/Seasmoke confrontation it will be Addam. But I imagine Laenor's death will either be confirmed by way of his dragon accepting a new rider ... or by way of a letter from or the return of Qarl Correy. The guy liked to fight, so it would make sense for him to offer his sword to Rhaenyra and the Velaryons.

If Laenor is dead it might make sense that he died in fights against the Triarchy.

Killing Laenor offscreen in-between seasons after they went through the whole fakeout is lame

2 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

They’ll solve the dragonrider bond by never explaining it. Even when Joffrey dies, it may just be that he was too young to tame Syrax and dies in the attempt.

But the gag is that it was already explained with the whole Aemond/Vhagar debacle

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Killing Laenor offscreen in-between seasons after they went through the whole fakeout is lame

In light of the fact that it will have been years since we last saw Laenor it should be okay for him to have died offscreen. Grand Maester Mellos is also quietly replaced by Orwyle in the show, for instance. But they could also depict his death somehow. In context it could also be Rhaenyra/Daemon just quietly realizing Daemon must be gone when Seasmoke gains a new rider.

2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

But the gag is that it was already explained with the whole Aemond/Vhagar debacle

Indeed. The first season firmly established the dragonrider rules we know from the book. There is no way around that now. If they introduce ambiguity there it would be a mess and no reason why not everybody could borrow or steal some other claimed dragon. Vhagar would be just Aemond's horse, and Rhaena's anger in season 1 without foundation.

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

They’ll solve the dragonrider bond by never explaining it. Even when Joffrey dies, it may just be that he was too young to tame Syrax and dies in the attempt.

I doubt that scene is going to play out like that in the show. More likely we will see Joff flying on a not completely tamed Tyraxes over to the Pit to have him fall off during the flight. I'd be very surprised if this Rhaenyra were too craven to personally defend the dragons.

Could also be that Joff is commanded by his mother to stay behind and he then joins the fray when she gets into trouble. Rhaenyra's completely mindless flight from KL - without Alicent, Corlys, Tyland, etc. - in the book could make a fracture of sense in the show if she flew out on her dragon but Syrax was heavily injured and fatally crashed out of the city walls. Rhaenyra's people would then search for her while the city fell to the rebels and they would have no means to return to the city.

If they actually plan to return to Dragonstone - and that was Rhaenyra's goal from the start in the book as far as wee know - not striking a deal with Corlys or at least using him as a hostage against Alyn and other Velaryons makes no sense at all.

Edited December 7, 2023 by Lord Varys

[BlackLightning]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In light of the fact that it will have been years since we last saw Laenor it should be okay for him to have died offscreen. Grand Maester Mellos is also quietly replaced by Orwyle in the show, for instance. But they could also depict his death somehow. In context it could also be Rhaenyra/Daemon just quietly realizing Daemon must be gone when Seasmoke gains a new rider.

Ryam Redwyne and Grand Maester Mellos as both were "quietly replaced" by Criston Cole and Orwyle...with the latter two being the greater/more important characters. Ser Ryam and the Grand Maester were glorified cameos.

Laenor is a main character; we had three different actors portray him and we've seen him ride a dragon to war.

I'm not saying that they can't write off Laenor. But if they do, they should do it onscreen as part of a TV-exclusive storyline or as an adaptation of an existing battle (with the Battle of the Gullet or one of the battles fought in the Reach being the best and most obvious place to do it)

Killing him offscreen would be extremely lame. It's not going to go over well if that's what they decide to do. Because at that point, what would be the point of going through the trouble of faking his death? Faking his death still makes Rhaenyra and Daemon look terrible, and it still almost ruined their relationship with Rhaenys and Corlys.

[BlackLightning]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Indeed. The first season firmly established the dragonrider rules we know from the book. There is no way around that now. If they introduce ambiguity there it would be a mess and no reason why not everybody could borrow or steal some other claimed dragon. Vhagar would be just Aemond's horse, and Rhaena's anger in season 1 without foundation.

Exactly

And it's an even bigger issue in a show about dragonwar.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I doubt that scene is going to play out like that in the show. More likely we will see Joff flying on a not completely tamed Tyraxes over to the Pit to have him fall off during the flight.

More like we'll see an inverse of Aemond's first flight on Vhagar.

Aemond was a child, weak and inexperienced, when he claimed that behemoth. He almost fell off more than once. And he did it bareback (i.e. without a saddle).

All we have to do is show Joffrey in the same situation. Except Joffrey is weaker and is unable to get a good grip on Tyraxes and then falls off much like Aemond almost had.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd be very surprised if this Rhaenyra were too craven to personally defend the dragons.

Could also be that Joff is commanded by his mother to stay behind and he then joins the fray when she gets into trouble. Rhaenyra's completely mindless flight from KL - without Alicent, Corlys, Tyland, etc. - in the book could make a fracture of sense in the show if she flew out on her dragon but Syrax was heavily injured and fatally crashed out of the city walls. Rhaenyra's people would then search for her while the city fell to the rebels and they would have no means to return to the city.

If they actually plan to return to Dragonstone - and that was Rhaenyra's goal from the start in the book as far as wee know - not striking a deal with Corlys or at least using him as a hostage against Alyn and other Velaryons makes no sense at all.

Edited 15 hours ago by Lord Varys

Forget surprised. I'd be livid. It made no sense in the book; it would make even less sense in the TV show because the TV version of Rhaenyra is much more driven and self-actualized.

Are we sure going back to Dragonstone was always Rhaenyra's plan? I was under the impression that she was torn between going north and meeting up with the Starks or going back to Dragonstone and ultimately chose Dragonstone.

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Ryam Redwyne and Grand Maester Mellos as both were "quietly replaced" by Criston Cole and Orwyle...with the latter two being the greater/more important characters. Ser Ryam and the Grand Maester were glorified cameos.

Mellos played a considerable role.

9 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Laenor is a main character; we had three different actors portray him and we've seen him ride a dragon to war.

I'm not saying that they can't write off Laenor. But if they do, they should do it onscreen as part of a TV-exclusive storyline or as an adaptation of an existing battle (with the Battle of the Gullet or one of the battles fought in the Reach being the best and most obvious place to do it)

Killing him offscreen would be extremely lame. It's not going to go over well if that's what they decide to do. Because at that point, what would be the point of going through the trouble of faking his death? Faking his death still makes Rhaenyra and Daemon look terrible, and it still almost ruined their relationship with Rhaenys and Corlys.

Thing is, I think Laenor was effectively already written out of the show. They didn't have Daemon and Rhaenyra kill him, but they still effectively killed him as he is gone now. All they need to do is acknowledge this (quietly) to make the dragon thing work.

However, I do hope that this thing comes up in some way to have Rhaenys and Corlys at least learn the truth.

One way to keep Laenor as a character/concept 'alive' is to make Addam and Alyn his sons from the time he was trying to be interested in women. They didn't include that line for no reason.

4 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

More like we'll see an inverse of Aemond's first flight on Vhagar.

Aemond was a child, weak and inexperienced, when he claimed that behemoth. He almost fell off more than once. And he did it bareback (i.e. without a saddle).

All we have to do is show Joffrey in the same situation. Except Joffrey is weaker and is unable to get a good grip on Tyraxes and then falls off much like Aemond almost had.

That is not a bad idea. Joff's age makes it pretty easy for his last dragon flight also be his first.

4 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Are we sure going back to Dragonstone was always Rhaenyra's plan? I was under the impression that she was torn between going north and meeting up with the Starks or going back to Dragonstone and ultimately chose Dragonstone.

It looks like that. Once she gets letters from Winterfell and the Eyrie about more armies she could have gone to the Vale or the North as some of her followers do ... but she didn't want that, she was determined to go to Dragonstone to acquire more dragons.

Thinking about that - the show would also greatly change the Baela plot. She will be in KL with Rhaenyra and might fly back to Dragonstone for her confrontation with Sunfyre, etc. because Moondancer is too small yet to carry more than one person. But she won't be stuck there under the rule of Robert Quince.

If there is the same fallout stuff we have in the book with the Velaryons she could abandon Rhaenyra and return to Dragonstone when she commands the arrest of Addam. But then - why an older Baela wouldn't be with Daemon and Nettles is also very hard to fathom.

[BlackLightning]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

They didn't have Daemon and Rhaenyra kill him, but they still effectively killed him as he is gone now. All they need to do is acknowledge this (quietly) to make the dragon thing work.

However, I do hope that this thing comes up in some way to have Rhaenys and Corlys at least learn the truth.

They did not effectively kill him. They wrote him off the show...meaning Laenor can make a reappearance as a part of Viserys' "lost boy in the Free Cities" storyline, as a part of Rhaenyra's reign, towards the end when Aegon II kicks the bucket or as a part of the "Mad Unwin Peake" phase of the Regency period

To be honest, the show would be much better off creating a TV-exclusive dragon just for Addam and leaving Seasmoke be than by killing Laenor offscreen (after going through everything they went through) and letting Seasmoke be passed onto Addam,

There's nothing quiet about Rhaenys and Corlys finding out that Laenor's death was faked so that Daemon and Rhaenyra can marry and "burn together" only for Laenor to die ignominiously in a foreign land.

Rhaenys and Corlys are going to be livid.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Thinking about that - the show would also greatly change the Baela plot. She will be in KL with Rhaenyra and might fly back to Dragonstone for her confrontation with Sunfyre, etc. because Moondancer is too small yet to carry more than one person. But she won't be stuck there under the rule of Robert Quince.

If there is the same fallout stuff we have in the book with the Velaryons she could abandon Rhaenyra and return to Dragonstone when she commands the arrest of Addam. But then - why an older Baela wouldn't be with Daemon and Nettles is also very hard to fathom.

We don't know how small Moondancer is going to be in the show. As far as I'm concerned, TV-Moondancer is going to be a bit bigger than Book-Moondancer. If only for the reason that TV-Baela is older. And based on the trailer, it looks like TV-Baela will be riding to war which increases the need for TV-Moondancer to be bigger.

But it 100% makes sense why an older Baela won't be with Daemon and Nettles. Why, you ask? An older, dragonriding Baela can be stationed on Dragonstone and be responsible for overseeing the defense of Dragonstone and Driftmark both. But because her attention has to be  divided, Aegon is able to sneak onto Dragonstone and the "what happened to Grey Ghost" mystery can start.

[Lord Varys]

38 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

They did not effectively kill him. They wrote him off the show...meaning Laenor can make a reappearance as a part of Viserys' "lost boy in the Free Cities" storyline, as a part of Rhaenyra's reign, towards the end when Aegon II kicks the bucket or as a part of the "Mad Unwin Peake" phase of the Regency period.

He certainly could. I meant that his fake death effectively wrote him out of the show in a manner which would allow the writers to treat him as effectively dead. He could come back ... or not.

38 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

There's nothing quiet about Rhaenys and Corlys finding out that Laenor's death was faked so that Daemon and Rhaenyra can marry and "burn together" only for Laenor to die ignominiously in a foreign land.

Rhaenys and Corlys are going to be livid.

They could be ... or Laenor and Qarl wanted that shit. After all, they were (and could not be) forced to do this. Sure enough, it makes no sense that Laenor would part with his dragon and family that way ... but whatever, it is what they wrote.

38 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

We don't know how small Moondancer is going to be in the show. As far as I'm concerned, TV-Moondancer is going to be a bit bigger than Book-Moondancer. If only for the reason that TV-Baela is older. And based on the trailer, it looks like TV-Baela will be riding to war which increases the need for TV-Moondancer to be bigger.

Could be, but I more meant that Moondancer might be too small still to carry more than one person. That could play a role if Baela was in KL during the riots and ended up flying back to Dragonstone while Rhaenyra would come later by ship. We can be sure that there will be many back-and-forths and dragons flying around. At least while they are still alive.

38 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

But it 100% makes sense why an older Baela won't be with Daemon and Nettles. Why, you ask? An older, dragonriding Baela can be stationed on Dragonstone and be responsible for overseeing the defense of Dragonstone and Driftmark both. But because her attention has to be  divided, Aegon is able to sneak onto Dragonstone and the "what happened to Grey Ghost" mystery can start.

I hope they will drop that mystery as a random riderless dragon battle/death doesn't exactly make for a great plot. At Tumbleton it is okay as a part of the larger battle, but if the show includes the Grey Ghost they should also give a rider (Rhaena, say, or Alyn of Hull).

Baela as the defender of Dragonstone could make some sense, I guess, but I'm not sure what the pretext for that will be after the Gullet in light of the fact that the Greens have no strength at sea. But you might be up to something there, as Ser Alfred Broome is going to be introduced in season 2, apparently, while Ser Robert Quince has apparently not been cast. So the issue of the asshead traitor might not revolve around him being passed over for a fat guy but rather for having to answer to and serve Baela. But, of course, Quince could show up only in season 3, or have so small a role in season 2 that they didn't announce the role/actor yet.

[The Bard of Banefort]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He certainly could. I meant that his fake death effectively wrote him out of the show in a manner which would allow the writers to treat him as effectively dead. He could come back ... or not.

They could be ... or Laenor and Qarl wanted that shit. After all, they were (and could not be) forced to do this. Sure enough, it makes no sense that Laenor would part with his dragon and family that way ... but whatever, it is what they wrote.

Could be, but I more meant that Moondancer might be too small still to carry more than one person. That could play a role if Baela was in KL during the riots and ended up flying back to Dragonstone while Rhaenyra would come later by ship. We can be sure that there will be many back-and-forths and dragons flying around. At least while they are still alive.

I hope they will drop that mystery as a random riderless dragon battle/death doesn't exactly make for a great plot. At Tumbleton it is okay as a part of the larger battle, but if the show includes the Grey Ghost they should also give a rider (Rhaena, say, or Alyn of Hull).

Baela as the defender of Dragonstone could make some sense, I guess, but I'm not sure what the pretext for that will be after the Gullet in light of the fact that the Greens have no strength at sea. But you might be up to something there, as Ser Alfred Broome is going to be introduced in season 2, apparently, while Ser Robert Quince has apparently not been cast. So the issue of the asshead traitor might not revolve around him being passed over for a fat guy but rather for having to answer to and serve Baela. But, of course, Quince could show up only in season 3, or have so small a role in season 2 that they didn't announce the role/actor yet.

Have we ever seen a council of the Faith before?

Either way, this could only happen after Sansa’s identity is publicly revealed.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Have we ever seen a council of the Faith before?

No, but we still know this to be true.

1 hour ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Either way, this could only happen after Sansa’s identity is publicly revealed.

Sure. But the easiest way would be to have Alayne Stone marry, anyway.

Edit: Totally the wrong thread, lol.

Edited December 8, 2023 by Lord Varys

[Jethryk]

Addam is Laenor! Seasmoke follows him around because Glamors don't work on Dragons. What actually goes down on the Isle of Faces is all connected, I think. Cannot wait to see!

[The Dragon Demands]

I’m busy with holiday rush but short reaction to teaser:

1 - NONE of the spy reporter channels I’m in contact with have remotely any idea what that shot of Alicent at a lake is. No one does. It’s a big mystery. Might even be a dream sequence for all we know. We DO know it’s in episode 7, because they recognized that as a real lake in Wales and they knew the filming schedule.

2 - it appears they’re going to actually give Baela more to do by showing her riding her dragon. I don’t know how: if she arrives at the AFTERMATH of Rook’s Rest it’s a good idea, but I hope she doesn’t participate in the battle (because it was an ambush; she’d have been killed). But we did want them to build her up more.

3 - yes, those are two shots of Seasmoke with Addam of Hull, played by Clinton Liberty ( some wondered if it was Nettles or even Laenor). We don’t know if we’ll see Laenor again (perhaps in flashback), but he apparently just died off screen in the Stepstones. Overall, despite RAMPANT speculation and outright misinformation by clickbaiters, all reliable leaks and spy photos indicate what they’re doing is fairly close to the books.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by The Dragon Demands

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, The Dragon Demands said:

2 - it appears they’re going to actually give Baela more to do by showing her riding her dragon. I don’t know how: if she arrives at the AFTERMATH of Rook’s Rest it’s a good idea, but I hope she doesn’t participate in the battle (because it was an ambush; she’d have been killed). But we did want them to build her up more.

One way to make Rook's Rest more fun would be to have the Blacks not be morons and have them arrive there with more than one dragon, so things really escalate. As they don't seem to want to portray Helaena post-Blood & Cheese as a weeping, unwashed madwoman confined to her rooms (which would effectively translate to little or zero screen time for her), I'd not be surprised if the Greens brought Sunfyre, Vhagar, and Dreamfyre to Rook's Rest, while the Blacks arrive with, say, Syrax, Meleys, and Moondancer. Sticking to the book narrative to a point, we could have the dragonriders reveal their presence in succession in an attempt to intimidate the other side into a retreat ... with it then going terribly wrong.

Size does matter in such clashes: Vhagar is the largest dragon alive, and Dreamfyre would likely be the third largest. A bit smaller than Vermithor but, perhaps, larger than Silverwing. And we have to keep in mind that if Helaena does never actually ride Dreamfyre on screen in this show - aside from, what?, two frames in season 1 - then the inclusion of that dragon is effectively just a waste of CGI money. The Storming of the Dragonpit could just as well work with Syrax as the big dragon inside rather than Dreamfyre - or a changed number of dragons.

It could also be great narrative buildup for future events if Baela is there. She is effectively Rhaenys' foster daughter in the show, and it could make sense to have her dance with Aegon II a bit before they have their kind of random clash at Dragonstone much later.

Rhaenys' death could be more tragic/meaningful if she sacrifices herself so that Rhaenyra and/or Baela can get away from Rook's Rest. Afterwards we could have Baela as a character who really pushes for vengeance and a escalation of the war.

[The Dragon Demands]

Hey, I realized that the wiki has no battle maps for the Dance of the Dragons, and hasn't really had new battle map updates in about a decade -- this wasn't an issue during HotD Season 1 but will be in Season 2, so I quickly cobbled together a few rough draft placeholder maps: I AM NOT AN ARTIST, these aren't good maps, they're just better than nothing, my goal was just to "get the ball rolling" on this as a project: 

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Category:Map_Images_-_Conflicts

[The Dragon Demands]

Mild leak:

Wake the Dragon now claims that three new dragons we'll see on-screen in Season 2 (but not the only new ones) include Moondancer (we know that from teaser), Tyraxes (we know we'll see them in the Vale)......and Stormcloud.

Put another way, now says reliable leaks put Stormcloud on-screen. This isn't a huge leak; given the "Chekov's Gun" that Daemon mentioned in the finale that he'd been collecting eggs, I expected to see at least one hatch on screen.

What WOULD be real news is if we got word on other hatchilngs like Morghul and Shrykos...or even Morning. No such luck.

also I had a bad cold right up until Christmas but I'm better now so I'm going to get back to working on that big combined video  "Season 2 Episode by Episode Outline Based on Cross-Referencing All Filming Phase Leaks Through 2023".

 

[The Dragon Demands]

To cut to the conclusion:

• We've pretty much confirmed the "action element" of the finale will be the Battle of Red Fork.
• ...I'm starting to suspect - but can't confirm - that Alicent will come to Dragonstone in the finale to propose that they Partition Westeros to avoid more bloodshed - thus serving as the big "face to face acting element" of the finale, though it's ultimately rejected (and actually based on a moment in the book but moved around). 

Season 2 has slowed the pace of adaptation, well beyond even my hopes as a book fan, so rather than racing to "the cool stuff!" of big battles at the end of the story they're taking time to round out the secondary characters and subplots. Yes, this means Daeron and even Nettles probably aren't in Season 2...simply because they won't reach that part of the story yet. We do know that the Sowing of the Dragonseeds STARTS in the second to last episode....but now it seems more like a "process" that spans multiple episodes, and Nettles might not show up until the Season 3 premiere. Despite the insistence of clickbaiters, we don't even think the Battle of the Gullet happens this season....NOR the absurd claims that "they'll just have the fall of King's Landing before the Gullet!"....no, there's no indications they're doing the fall of KL either. Clickbaiters thought that if they just repeated a lie enough times it would become belief and become fact: "Gullet is this Season!" "Fall of KL is this season!".....they're holdovers from the Seasons 5 through 8 crowd who liked empty theorization more than hard facts. 

We're reasonably sure, based on spy photos and casting reports, that the Battle of Red Fork will happen in episode 8 - that's the "action element" of the finale, introducing the cliffhanger that the main phase of the war has begun in earnest, with the main army of the Westerlands invading the Riverlands (and presumably, Aemond & Criston's KL army invading from the east). 

....much more speculative....but given that a TV show feels the need to have big "face to face acting scenes" which in books were done by letter-raven....there are rumors - not confirmed to me - that Alicent is on Dragonstone in the finale. Given that nothing else indicates the fall of KL is this season (Alicent wouldn't be captured)......I have the lingering suspicion that this will be a peace embassy that doesn't work. In the aftermath of Rook's Rest, they send out peace feelers again: "maybe we should stop before this escalates into a full scale total war across the entire continent?".....perhaps drawing inspiration from a slightly later pointi n the book, AFTER the fall of KL but after the blacks' offensives have stalled when their money runs out...when the (imprisoned) Alicent proposes "why not just Partition Westeros into two kingdoms north and south of the Blackwater?"  This IS a debate that happens in the book, but Rhaenyra shoots it down. My suspicion is that in order to create big "face to fact acting scenes" to serve as the acting side of the Season 2 finale, they'll move this around, have Alicent come to Dragonstone to propose this, they have a big debate but ultimately reject it (as we now secretly know....Rhaenyra's motivated by the prophecy to keep the realm united, so she'd never agree to this; whereas Eustace would say she rejected it out of scorn). 

...checking....here's Alicent's "Two State Solution" for Westeros, as it were, after the Fall of King's Landing (which the Blacks assumed would end the war but didn't, and their offensives elsewhere have stalled):
 

Quote

Fearing for her sons, Queen Alicent went to the Iron Throne upon her knees, to plead for peace. This time the Queen in Chains put forth the notion that the realm might be divided; Rhaenyra would keep King’s Landing and the crownlands, the North, the Vale of Arryn, all the lands watered by the Trident, and the isles. To Aegon II would go the stormlands, the westerlands, and the Reach, to be ruled from Oldtown.

Rhaenyra rejected her stepmother’s proposal with scorn. “Your sons might have had places of honor at my court if they had kept faith,” Her Grace declared, “but they sought to rob me of my birthright, and the blood of my sweet sons is on their hands.”

Basically imagine that but shifted around a bit chronologically, to "the aftermath of Rook's Rest, but right before the Greens launch their main offensives into the Riverlands and Reach, Alicent makes one last desperate proposal to avoid the upcoming bloodbath for both sides". 

That's just a theory though - the people claiming these rumors about Alicent have been reliable in the past but wouldn't go into more detail, so I'm left to guess. But the other part, the action part, we know that from spy photos and casting sheets: Battle of Red Fork is in the finale. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by The Dragon Demands

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, The Dragon Demands said:

Mild leak:

Wake the Dragon now claims that three new dragons we'll see on-screen in Season 2 (but not the only new ones) include Moondancer (we know that from teaser), Tyraxes (we know we'll see them in the Vale)......and Stormcloud.

Put another way, now says reliable leaks put Stormcloud on-screen. This isn't a huge leak; given the "Chekov's Gun" that Daemon mentioned in the finale that he'd been collecting eggs, I expected to see at least one hatch on screen.

I'd imagine that we do see the hatching of Stormcloud live on Dragonstone. If Aegon goes to the Vale with Rhaena the one big reason they might be sending him there would be that he has a dragon, now, too. Which - in the book, at least - is the big reason why Joffrey and Tyraxes go there. Lady Jeyne is asking for dragonrider protection.

1 hour ago, The Dragon Demands said:

What WOULD be real news is if we got word on other hatchilngs like Morghul and Shrykos...or even Morning. No such luck.

Morning would be way too early at that point. And they still need a really good explanation why Rhaena is not trying to mount Vermithor or Silverwing or even Seasmoke in the wake of season 1. They know they want more dragonriders already.

I think there is still a good chance that the show includes her as a rider of the Grey Ghost (as there is no point to that dragon in the book if we talk plot), with Morning only being her second dragon hatching close to the end of the show.

If Rhaena misses the beginning of the Sowing because she goes to the Vale, and if she were to return to Dragonstone before the Gullet and the fall of KL she could easily enough team up with Nettles to search out the wild dragons as they have no castle dragons left to try to mount.

They would then need to come up with a separate story for the Grey Ghost to die, of course, but that would be easily done (easiest way could be the Storming of the Dragonpit with Rhaena then accompanying Rhaenyra and Aegon the Younger only to decide to act as Rhaenyra's envoy in the Vale again rather than going with them to Dragonstone).

If those revelation really allow us to form an outline, then I think unlike earlier revelations implied - Aegon the Younger going with Rhaena to the Vale rather than it being only her and Joffrey - we might still see him and Viserys with Stormcloud on the ship.

After all, if there is no Gullet battle in season 2, we would expect it not to happen in episode 1 or 2. And since the importance of the Vale is apparently played up it would also make sense for Rhaenyra to have Jeyne sent some men to Dragonstone and Driftmark in preparation for the (eventually planned) attack on KL. Meaning Aegon could easily enough return to Dragonstone eventually, only to be captured by the Triarchy then. Hell, story-wise they might even only decide to send him and Viserys to Pentos after they really get an impression that they might lose the war.

If I had to guess, I'd imagine that season 3 would only have the Gullet at a later point and the Fall of KL as, perhaps, for episode 7 or 8, as they would heavily build up the Reach plot in that season, and focus a lot on the fighting in the Riverlands, followed by the introduction of the Ironborn plot. Nettles could join the fray only after Jace is lost in the Gullet.

It would also make sense to have the Riverlands campaigns to play out to completion - get to the Fishfeed or even the Butcher's Ball - before Rhaenyra takes the Iron Throne. Then they could go with a heavy focus on the Reach campaigns afterwards, really play up the Ironborn/Westerlands stuff, add some material for the Stormlands, before getting to Tumbleton and the riots. This could also help to flesh out the characters some more - the Aemond/Criston Cole thing, how Aegon II is doing as a crippled, drug-addicted 'king', more stuff for Helaena to do, etc.

Insofar as Alicent/Rhaenyra considering a peace treaty - if they do that, I really would like them to properly address the whole incest thing. Namely, the obvious way for them to make a peace would be for Rhaenyra and Aegon to set aside their current spouses to marry each other, with Alicent offering to marry Daemon, Helaena marrying Jace, and Baela and Rhaena ending up with Aemond and Daeron. They would rule jointly, and proper heirs to the throne could then only be trueborn children of Rhaenyra and Aegon.

The idea to split up the kingdoms would be too soon, I think, at that point, as, what we know so far, at least, would indicate that not a lot of houses have declared their allegiance yet, nor should the time have come for certain regions of the Seven Kingdoms seeing themselves as 'Black land' or 'Green land'. But that could certainly be the case at a later point during the war.

But I think it could also make great sense to see how Alicent and Rhaenyra get close to an arrangement or actually do reach a compromise, only for other people (guys) in their respective factions fucking things up again. Corlys - and especially Baela - could be, for a time, warmongering hawks in the show, in the wake of Rhaenys' death. And at the Green court Aegon being incapacitated after Rook's Rest could give Alicent more authority than she had back during Aegon's short reign. But Criston Cole and Aemond (and Larys Strong) could easily enough use the time of her absence as a way to escalate things some more.

Those three buddies of Aegon's - Estermont, Reyne, and the Waters guy - really seem to indicate factionalism among the Greens, indicating that Aegon might quickly be surrounded by men who try to turn the figurehead king into the real ruler, hoping that would gain them advancement.

[The Dragon Demands]

Matt Smith did a recent podcast interview: when asked when HotD season 2 is coming out, he said “August”

….thats what’s trending on social media anyway. The relevant clip is in this Tweet: 

 

 

What he actually said was “…uh, August? I think? Summer.” — which isn’t exactly confirmation.

@Ran

[Luca]

On 12/27/2023 at 8:29 PM, The Dragon Demands said:

To cut to the conclusion:

• We've pretty much confirmed the "action element" of the finale will be the Battle of Red Fork.
• ...I'm starting to suspect - but can't confirm - that Alicent will come to Dragonstone in the finale to propose that they Partition Westeros to avoid more bloodshed - thus serving as the big "face to face acting element" of the finale, though it's ultimately rejected (and actually based on a moment in the book but moved around). 

Season 2 has slowed the pace of adaptation, well beyond even my hopes as a book fan, so rather than racing to "the cool stuff!" of big battles at the end of the story they're taking time to round out the secondary characters and subplots. Yes, this means Daeron and even Nettles probably aren't in Season 2...simply because they won't reach that part of the story yet. We do know that the Sowing of the Dragonseeds STARTS in the second to last episode....but now it seems more like a "process" that spans multiple episodes, and Nettles might not show up until the Season 3 premiere. Despite the insistence of clickbaiters, we don't even think the Battle of the Gullet happens this season....NOR the absurd claims that "they'll just have the fall of King's Landing before the Gullet!"....no, there's no indications they're doing the fall of KL either. Clickbaiters thought that if they just repeated a lie enough times it would become belief and become fact: "Gullet is this Season!" "Fall of KL is this season!".....they're holdovers from the Seasons 5 through 8 crowd who liked empty theorization more than hard facts. 

We're reasonably sure, based on spy photos and casting reports, that the Battle of Red Fork will happen in episode 8 - that's the "action element" of the finale, introducing the cliffhanger that the main phase of the war has begun in earnest, with the main army of the Westerlands invading the Riverlands (and presumably, Aemond & Criston's KL army invading from the east). 

....much more speculative....but given that a TV show feels the need to have big "face to face acting scenes" which in books were done by letter-raven....there are rumors - not confirmed to me - that Alicent is on Dragonstone in the finale. Given that nothing else indicates the fall of KL is this season (Alicent wouldn't be captured)......I have the lingering suspicion that this will be a peace embassy that doesn't work. In the aftermath of Rook's Rest, they send out peace feelers again: "maybe we should stop before this escalates into a full scale total war across the entire continent?".....perhaps drawing inspiration from a slightly later pointi n the book, AFTER the fall of KL but after the blacks' offensives have stalled when their money runs out...when the (imprisoned) Alicent proposes "why not just Partition Westeros into two kingdoms north and south of the Blackwater?"  This IS a debate that happens in the book, but Rhaenyra shoots it down. My suspicion is that in order to create big "face to fact acting scenes" to serve as the acting side of the Season 2 finale, they'll move this around, have Alicent come to Dragonstone to propose this, they have a big debate but ultimately reject it (as we now secretly know....Rhaenyra's motivated by the prophecy to keep the realm united, so she'd never agree to this; whereas Eustace would say she rejected it out of scorn). "

 

 

Maybe Rhaenyra is considering Alicent proposal (doubting because of the prophecy but considering it) and then she hears about the Triarchy fleet closing in and taking Vyseris. Then she feels set up and breaks relations with Alicent for good. The ending would be enemies closing on all sides for the Blacks, with the Lannister armies entering the Riverlands, the Hightowers beginning to movilice and the Triarchy fleet closing in

[The Dragon Demands]

Turns out the reshoots are bigger than we thought, will involve battle scenes, and didn’t even start yet!

We thought filming would begin on February 1; instead filming begins March 1st and will last one month;