Varys, Illyrio, GC and the "Plan"

[illrede]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

WRT the rebellion, I’d say that Robert won because of his outstanding abilities as a commander, and the poor quality of loyalist leadership, not because he had a wide base of support.

The North was the only region that was united behind the rebels.  Hoster Tully, Jon Arryn, and Robert himself, all faced loyalist opposition among their vassals.

Aerys, Rhaegar, and Jon Connington had a big numerical advantage, and they threw it away.

Robert himself fears that if Viserys turns up with an army, many lords will rise in his support.  Even in victory, Robert was not powerful enough to confiscate the lands of his enemies and give them to his supporters.  The Tyrells and Martells could have kept waging war for years, against Robert.

And, by the start of AGOT, Robert has deteriorated to the point that he can barely ride a horse, let alone lead an army.

So, an Eastern invasion does mean there’s a real risk that the lords who supported the Targaryens, who retain their wealth and power, will back a restoration.

The Baratheon dynasty was always vulnerable.

Hardly needs saying but in some ways it bears pointing out the obvious- Cersei was a fool. The Baratheons were in a sweet spot of being weak enough to be taking over by an ostensibly junior partner, paralyzed at the chief executive level so nobody is going to stop you, and status quo enough that existing patronage networks would just look on. House Lannister's best shot ever. Their leadership cadre stand to give themselves strokes when they think about it. Well, not that I recall, they mostly just drink when they do.

[frenin]

18 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-id say its kept vauge on his exact level of reach, hes had  ample time and funding  to put spies in most areas, kl and essos obviously has his 'little.birds'  too ..spywise id bryndens magic was as much to do with his seeming all knowing.

I don't think it's kept vague, Varys has little to no intel on the Vale, North, Dragonstone etc.

Bloodraven had a spy in every inn.

 

18 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-as we see theres literaly dozens of houses of all sizes  in every region and wealso see sometimes a loyal house will beget a disloyal heir or visa versa.

We have yet to see it as of now.

 

18 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

The stormlords we recall robert nedded to literaly hammer at least 3 houses into submission , now add in we dont know how many exiled sons  are comming home.with the GC to murky up loyalties!!!

And then got them so loyal they died for him.

The exiled sons... are exiled for a reason, most of the GC have not been in GC in generations.

 

18 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-depends on the particular rotation and we know robert preffered to keep jamie close to him for humiliation, 2 of them varys says are cerseis creatures so would be onside and any close quarters slaughter around that period we must rememer the clegane brothers are in town, those 2 together with jamie? Forget about it!  Shit from what we've seen  of 2 handed jamie alone  unless one of the kingsguard there on the spot is selmy than robert is dead

1. That's show only, iirc.
2. Varys says quite a lot of things lol, if it was for him, Cersei could fabricate vipers to kill Robert.
3. Only Sandor is in the vecinity, Gregor is there just for the tourney.
4. Not that it matters, the Baratheon men overwhelm the Lannisters in the castle anyway.

 

18 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-yeah id lean towards varys just as the other conflictl(wolf vs lion) feels like LFs doing

Fair enough.

 

18 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-sellswords rather than savage dothraki might make it more palatable esp with a targ at the head (esp given robert has forged his legitimacy on distant targ family ties that are behind aegon in sucession)plus again unknown numbers of local assitance. If for example they get the tyrells behind them and the huge sellsword force +dorne it begins to create a political momentum of lords switching to the seemingly winning side.

Golden Company is Westerosi so, they are golden. Dunno why they are going to be more open to a tyroshii or (inser x here). Westeros is incredibly xenophobic

So many ifs, they are unlikely to get the Tyrells anyway, especially if the plan hinges on Robert turning on the Lannisters, Margaery would be on his bed in days.

 

18 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-they have dorne onside but would def need one more region unless the plan is to somehow make the rest attack dorne through the narrow boneways into dorne and bleed them.dry there!

That tactic is 150 years old outdated, thanks young dragon.

 

18 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-good point thats what i made this thread for man multiple heads thinking the potential avenues out...yeah id say renly as a lynchpin between the reach and stormlamds has to go....varys prob had a crossbolt  with his name on it!

Yeah, poor man, always wanted.

18 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

But overall yeah the numbers and timing have got to be right  , lets say ned takes the northern forces north of the wall  to deal with mance as hed been planning so theyl be gone for some time , lannisters mauled  already and out of the allaliance (may be an ally for faegon)  , the riverlands,stormlands and vale left in play as well as the crownlands. Dorne+ GC plus extra mercs doesnt seem to be enough without the reach but the golden company seemed to think they have pals there!!

Fair enough.

 

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

Even in victory, Robert was not powerful enough to confiscate the lands of his enemies and give them to his supporters.  

Didn't he do that with the Connigtons, Darrys and such.

 

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

The Tyrells and Martells could have kept waging war for years, against Robert.

The Martells maybe, maybe since their ability to wage war hinges on narrative convenience.

The Tyrells could not.

 

Quote

The modern concept of "total war" really didn't exist in the medieval period. Armies were personal, as were loyalties. The leader who wanted to fight on till the last drop of blood might well have found himself fighting on alone, since his vassals were likely to have better sense, and their levies were more likely to follow their own lord than the "general." Tyrell's surrender was pretty much warfare as usual. If he had =tried= to give battle to Ned in a lost cause, he might well have found his more opportunistic bannermen deserting to the other side.

 

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

So, an Eastern invasion does mean there’s a real risk that the lords who supported the Targaryens, who retain their wealth and power, will back a restoration.

The Baratheon dynasty was always vulnerable.

Who are those lords? The Reach Lords like Rowan, who let Viserys rot in Essos while he became Renly's man?  Loyalist like Darry who were stripped power to the point of irrelevance? Doran who only moves when he's sure he's going to win? The Lords of the Narrow Sea who are fighting and dying for Stannis  of all people?

Not even Varys and Illyrio who are behind the restoration believed they could actually take on the coalition and were plotting to make it collapse, hell even after the coalition collapsed and much of their power was chipped away, Varys had to kill Kevan because otherwise Aegon would have lost.  He does not believe in these mystery lords, so he literally kills the last resistance to his plans and banks on the infighting doing the rest for Aegon.

 

The Baratheons did not have the power of legitimacy given his very recent ascension. but for all their faults, the brothers did manage solidify the dominion over much of the Realm. Renly made valuable inroads in the Reach to gain thm over and Stannis manage to keep Dragonstone and its surroundings in check.

[illrede]

16 minutes ago, frenin said:

 

 

The Baratheons did not have the power of legitimacy given his very recent ascension. but for all their faults, the brothers did manage solidify the dominion over much of the Realm. Renly made valuable inroads in the Reach to gain thm over and Stannis manage to keep Dragonstone and its surroundings in check.

Quibble! See what it looks like if you flip that around and look at it as instead of Renly having the Reach, the Reach had Renly.

[frenin]

32 minutes ago, illrede said:

Quibble! See what it looks like if you flip that around and look at it as instead of Renly having the Reach, the Reach had Renly.

It seems more of o one way street but that can work too.

Fair enough.

[astarkchoice]

3 hours ago, frenin said:

-i don't think it's kept vague, Varys has little to no intel on the Vale, North, Dragonstone etc.

Bloodraven had a spy in every inn.

 

-We have yet to see it as of now.

And then got them so loyal they died for him.

The exiled sons... are exiled for a reason, most of the GC have not been in GC in generations.

-That's show only, iirc.

1. Varys says quite a lot of things lol, if it was for him, Cersei could fabricate vipers to kill Robert.
2. Only Sandor is in the vecinity, Gregor is there just for the tourney.
3. Not that it matters, the Baratheon men overwhelm the Lannisters in the castle anyway.

 

-Fair enough.

 

-Golden Company is Westerosi so, they are golden. Dunno why they are going to be more open to a tyroshii or (inser x here). Westeros is incredibly xenophobic

-So many ifs, they are unlikely to get the Tyrells anyway, especially if the plan hinges on Robert turning on the Lannisters, Margaery would be on his bed in days.

 

-That tactic is 150 years old outdated, thanks young dragon.

 

-Yeah, poor man, always wanted.

Fair enough.

 

 

 

 

-we dont know if he hasnt, besides  the vale is LF territory so it may be hard to get info from and on dragonstone mel is finding andn cooking anyone who isnt 100% team stannis

 

-we havent seen much of most houses though, theres always some treachery a brewing in westeros

-not sure abour the ratio of baratheon to lannsiter troops there but st a min if it kicls off jamie has an excelelt  chance of adding another king to his tally and od exodct the lannsiter forces to at least be able to force an exit for the whole inbred clan of them

 

-the golden company officers are largely westerosi  id say like most sellsword companies the rank and file are essosi born and bred. Backed by even more foriegners there might be more fricton if they stayed but as we know most of them will just be there to win the war and leave...the downside of that is stabilizing after a win though if a lot of your  military powerbase is rented.

-yeah it depends if hes alive though, plus its as.much about legitimacy too, if people truely swallow that faegon is the real deal  the tyrells may want that too esp given roberts claim is supposedly based on his distant targ ties 

-thatd depend on the naval situation too if they get the reach(redwyne)  or volantis (hes brought a triarch) itd be hard to do anything but go down the boneway etc

-

 

 

[frenin]

On 4/28/2023 at 11:14 PM, astarkchoice said:

-we dont know if he hasnt, besides  the vale is LF territory so it may be hard to get info from and on dragonstone mel is finding andn cooking anyone who isnt 100% team stannis

We know he hasn't, we know he doesn't have anyone in the North, and i mean North not White Harbor, he doesn't have eyes in the Vale or Pyke and as far as we can tell there is not much coming from the West.

It follows the clear pattern that his influence and info diminishes the further you get from King's Landing.

 

On 4/28/2023 at 11:14 PM, astarkchoice said:

-we havent seen much of most houses though, theres always some treachery a brewing in westeros

Sure and that cuts both ways, which is why it's kind of absurd starting from that premise.

The Golden Company can also be bribed and yadda yadda yadda. I do not think it's likely just as i do not think that people we're told were very loyal and benefitted a lot from the rebellion would not be.

 

On 4/28/2023 at 11:14 PM, astarkchoice said:

-not sure abour the ratio of baratheon to lannsiter troops there but st a min if it kicls off jamie has an excelelt  chance of adding another king to his tally and od exodct the lannsiter forces to at least be able to force an exit for the whole inbred clan of them

The Lannister troops were outsized on that one but at any chance, in a normal setting, Jaime's arrest order is set and brave as he is, that's that.

 

On 4/28/2023 at 11:14 PM, astarkchoice said:

-yeah it depends if hes alive though, plus its as.much about legitimacy too, if people truely swallow that faegon is the real deal  the tyrells may want that too esp given roberts claim is supposedly based on his distant targ ties 

Legitimacy does not equal to troops, people may believe he's the real deal and then run the numbers and consider it's not worth it.

 

On 4/28/2023 at 11:14 PM, astarkchoice said:

-the golden company officers are largely westerosi  id say like most sellsword companies the rank and file are essosi born and bred. Backed by even more foriegners there might be more fricton if they stayed but as we know most of them will just be there to win the war and leave...the downside of that is stabilizing after a win though if a lot of your  military powerbase is rented.

The Golden Company in on itself is not really a problem, the rest are and are a perfect way of galvanizing support.

 

At the end of the day, as i see it at least. As a new dynasty, a lot of the Baratheon support is personal, the North as a whole is not really loyal to the Baratheons, Ned, and to a lesser extent Robb until Joffrey blows that bridge, is. The Tyrells and the most prominent Reach lords aren't loyal to the Baratheons, they just like Renly, we saw how the Vale acts under Lysa.

Cut those personal ties, Renly, Jon Arryn etc and they are defenseless. If he was able to do that, he'd win, If he couldn't do that for this or that reason, his cause would be done because the numbers don't add up and Stannis, Ned and co know a thing or two about warfare.

[astarkchoice]

4 hours ago, frenin said:

-We know he hasn't, we know he doesn't have anyone in the North, and i mean North not White Harbor, he doesn't have eyes in the Vale or Pyke and as far as we can tell there is not much coming from the West.

It follows the clear pattern that his influence and info diminishes the further you get from King's Landing.

 

-Sure and that cuts both ways, which is why it's kind of absurd starting from that premise.

The Golden Company can also be bribed and yadda yadda yadda. I do not think it's likely just as i do not think that people we're told were very loyal and benefitted a lot from the rebellion would not be.

 

-The Lannister troops were outsized on that one but at any chance, in a normal setting, Jaime's arrest order is set and brave as he is, that's that.

 

-Legitimacy does not equal to troops, people may believe he's the real deal and then run the numbers and consider it's not worth it.

 

-The Golden Company in on itself is not really a problem, the rest are and are a perfect way of galvanizing support.

 

At the end of the day, as i see it at least. As a new dynasty, a lot of the Baratheon support is personal, the North as a whole is not really loyal to the Baratheons, Ned, and to a lesser extent Robb until Joffrey blows that bridge, is. The Tyrells and the most prominent Reach lords aren't loyal to the Baratheons, they just like Renly, we saw how the Vale acts under Lysa.

Cut those personal ties, Renly, Jon Arryn etc and they are defenseless. If he was able to do that, he'd win, If he couldn't do that for this or that reason, his cause would be done because the numbers don't add up and Stannis, Ned and co know a thing or two about warfare.

-doesnt he? And even if he says he doesnt  to someone is there any reason to belive him ? Having spies is no guarantee of getting info either...in the midst of KL where he has his little birds he cannot listen into the queen of thorns etc  Other masters of whispers had spies everywhere no reason he wouldnt have. And again add in that the vale is LfS backyward and where his spynetwork begins...it makes sense itd be a hard place to get info out  of, dragonstone we know mel has sniffed out anyone disloyal thus its a info.black hole to the regime.

No it makes more  sense he has his little birds in kl and essos and ' normal 'spies everywhere else, shit if cersei can hire and use them anyone can ! Plus the euchs had decades to send them out to other regions.

-as we see theres lords willing to turn on their overlords just to advance and some secret targ loyalists out there (dary and brienes crownlanders)as for bribing  the golden company with cash  we see are now driven by a handed down ideology ,  a chance to go 'home', their officers want whst they see as their birthright of cosy lordships and lands to live in luxury instead of having to continue to work hard for a living anymore.

-true but in close quarters the hound+ jamie is a hard double act to stop , 2 of the kingsgaurd are cerseis creatures so unless a particualr shift roation has ser barristan there robert is dead and the lannsiter clan will rpobably sucessfully force their way out of the city if needs be.

-yeah the tyrells seem to be reaching for that crown is dont think they cared if it was renly or lannister..the MO seems.to be like their symbol get in somehwere then spread like a rose(or a weed depending on your view of them) if faegon or shit even viserys  came a bit earier with the right circumstances they may have gone for him.

[frenin]

17 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-doesnt he? And even if he says he doesnt  to someone is there any reason to belive him ? Having spies is no guarantee of getting info either...in the midst of KL where he has his little birds he cannot listen into the queen of thorns etc  Other masters of whispers had spies everywhere no reason he wouldnt have. And again add in that the vale is LfS backyward and where his spynetwork begins...it makes sense itd be a hard place to get info out  of, dragonstone we know mel has sniffed out anyone disloyal thus its a info.black hole to the regime.

He doesn't and if we don't believe him and we are not shown that web stretching that far what are we basing this info on besides our own desire for it to be true?

Most masters of whispers don't have spies everywhere, only Bloodraven had spies everywhere and that is because besides being Master of whispers he was also acting King, so he had an unchecked control that allowed him to create a police state,Varys does not have that advantage.

 

21 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-as we see theres lords willing to turn on their overlords just to advance and some secret targ loyalists out there (dary and brienes crownlanders)as for bribing  the golden company with cash  we see are now driven by a handed down ideology ,  a chance to go 'home', their officers want whst they see as their birthright of cosy lordships and lands to live in luxury instead of having to continue to work hard for a living anymore.

We were discussing Stormlords and you bring out crownladers...

It doesn't really make sense to pretend that the only people who can be bribed and be willing to turn on their allies are just westerosi.

Ofc we have no reason to believe the Golden Company just as we have no reason than the Stormlords would do it, arguing that is human nature doesn't change that.

 

28 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-true but in close quarters the hound+ jamie is a hard double act to stop , 2 of the kingsgaurd are cerseis creatures so unless a particualr shift roation has ser barristan there robert is dead and the lannsiter clan will rpobably sucessfully force their way out of the city if needs be.

1. Why are you inserting the hound here?
2. 2 Kingsguard are not equal to 7
3. The Lannister clan are simply not able to kill the king, his supporters and then the city watch. Are they gods?

 

36 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

if faegon or shit even viserys  came a bit earier with the right circumstances they may have gone for him.

Well yeah, those right circumstances are not so easy to obtain tho.

It requires the Baratheons' alliance being heavily diminished and Renly and or Loras being out of the picture. More likely than not they end up at odds because it's more convenient for them, just like they are doing now.

Btw, no, no one will join Viserys, Aegon is golden, Viserys is toxic waste. It is what it is.

 

[astarkchoice]

28 minutes ago, frenin said:

-He doesn't and if we don't believe him and we are not shown that web stretching that far what are we basing this info on besides our own desire for it to be true?

Most masters of whispers don't have spies everywhere, only Bloodraven had spies everywhere and that is because besides being Master of whispers he was also acting King, so he had an unchecked control that allowed him to create a police state,Varys does not have that advantage.

 

-We were discussing Stormlords and you bring out crownladers...

It doesn't really make sense to pretend that the only people who can be bribed and be willing to turn on their allies are just westerosi.

Ofc we have no reason to believe the Golden Company just as we have no reason than the Stormlords would do it, arguing that is human nature doesn't change that.

-Why are you inserting the hound here?

1. 2 Kingsguard are not equal to 7
2. The Lannister clan are simply not able to kill the king, his supporters and then the city watch. Are they gods?

 

-Well yeah, those right circumstances are not so easy to obtain tho.

It requires the Baratheons' alliance being heavily diminished and Renly and or Loras being out of the picture. More likely than not they end up at odds because it's more convenient for them, just like they are doing now.

Btw, no, no one will join Viserys, Aegon is golden, Viserys is toxic waste. It is what it is.

 

-we are basing it on  the same evidence he doesnt. The fact is we can see.outside of the special spies (littlebirds) LF and cersei and varys all  hire  regualr people to spy for money. Theres nothing to say they cant do this elsewhere  and in like 15 years it seems unlikey robert didnt ask him a few questions about lords outside of KL , its his job so it makes sense that hed have eventualy gotte n spies in each region,.maybe not to bloodravens extent but something to allow him to awnser with more than a shoulder shrug to roberts queries. 

-true but my point was more if aegon came back and if people believed hes genuine with a claim to the throne some.may follow,.not bribed but genuinely feel.they should support him.over their lord..others may just use the oppertunity to rise (cough freg cough bolton etc)

-the hound is in kl as is jamie both are in the lannister camp. 

7 are unlikely to all be on duty same time and all.same.area and only see barristan stands a chance of stopping jamie. With the hound , hamie amd the large lannister forcr in the city (as well.as easily bribable goldcloacks means theys highly likely be able to berak out

-maybe but they are essosi so the idea of having sellswords get the win for them.and then clearing up after would be more natural.for them to think would work

-viserys was.a horrible.human but so was aerys and joffery..its  largely the title.that counts

Edited April 30, 2023 by astarkchoice

[frenin]

42 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-we are basing it on  the same evidence he doesnt. The fact is we can see.outside of the special spies (littlebirds) LF and cersei and varys all  hire  regualr people to spy for money. Theres nothing to say they cant do this elsewhere  and in like 15 years it seems unlikey robert didnt ask him a few questions about lords outside of KL , its his job so it makes sense that hed have eventualy gotte n spies in each region,.maybe not to bloodravens extent but something to allow him to awnser with more than a shoulder shrug to roberts queries. 

Those are very different arguments. Does he have a web of intel? Sure. Does it cover the whole country? No, it doesn't.

And I very much doubt Robert would be asking questions about the Stormlords or Northmen anyway.

Hence my point, I do think that he'd have a list of the most likely allies and most ardent never surrenders but given that the scope he has is more limited, so will the info.

 

46 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-true but my point was more if aegon came back and if people believed hes genuine with a claim to the throne some.may follow,.not bribed but genuinely feel.they should support him.over their lord..others may just use the oppertunity to rise (cough freg cough bolton etc)

Sure, I mean if the Blackfyres had the Yronwoods riding for them, it's not a stretch to see the odd Darry or those from the Cracklaw Point doing it to.

Most won't tho.

 

52 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-the hound is in kl as is jamie both are in the lannister camp. 

Still not super heros.

 

53 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

7 are unlikely to all be on duty same time and all.same.area and only see barristan stands a chance of stopping jamie. With the hound , hamie amd the large lannister forcr in the city (as well.as easily bribable goldcloacks means theys highly likely be able to berak out

No, it means that odds of it happening is lower, besides the obvious fact that Robert is not only surrounded by his Kingsguard, great as they are numbers have a quality on their own.

The Lannister army is neither large enough nor they are all in the same place at all times.

 

56 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-maybe but they are essosi so the idea of having sellswords get the win for them.and then clearing up after would be more natural.for them to think would work

Sellswords are not an uncommon thing in Westeros but they are not the norm and not well regarded, they usually are in low numbers. Tens of thousands of foreign soldiers? That's great PR.

 

58 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-viserys was.a horrible.human but so was aerys and joffery..its  largely the title.that counts

1. Aerys and Joffrey were killed explicitly because they behaviour.
2. Both were kings and had momentum on their side, till they lost it.
3. None of them were very visible. Rhaegar carried his side and when he died that was that, Tywin is carrying his side. There's no one powerful and feared enough to actually vouch and stick by Viserys in Westeros. In fact powerful and feared Lords will obviously want to test him before deciding to stick their necks out for him... good luck with that.

He has every single disadvantage and none of the advantages. The very definition of damaged goods. Neither Aegon nor Dany have that burden.

[CassDarry]

If Viserys had taken KL with the Golden Company using Varys' secret passageways etc while King Robert was in winterfell, I think Dorne, Reach and variety of loyal/disgruntled/opportunistic Lords would join....especially if had had Renly Hostage.

Lord Darry may even brave capturing Bobby while sleeping but that's just the dream.

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

-Those are very different arguments. Does he have a web of intel? Sure. Does it cover the whole country? No, it doesn't.

And I very much doubt Robert would be asking questions about the Stormlords or Northmen anyway.

Hence my point, I do think that he'd have a list of the most likely allies and most ardent never surrenders but given that the scope he has is more limited, so will the info.

 

Sure, I mean if the Blackfyres had the Yronwoods riding for them, it's not a stretch to see the odd Darry or those from the Cracklaw Point doing it to.

Most won't tho.

 

-Still not super heros.

 

No, it means that odds of it happening is lower, besides the obvious fact that Robert is not only surrounded by his Kingsguard, great as they are numbers have a quality on their own.

The Lannister army is neither large enough nor they are all in the same place at all times.

 

-Sellswords are not an uncommon thing in Westeros but they are not the norm and not well regarded, they usually are in low numbers. Tens of thousands of foreign soldiers? That's great PR.

 

1. -Aerys and Joffrey were killed explicitly because they behaviour.
2. Both were kings and had momentum on their side, till they lost it.
3. None of them were very visible. Rhaegar carried his side and when he died that was that, Tywin is carrying his side. There's no one powerful and feared enough to actually vouch and stick by Viserys in Westeros. In fact powerful and feared Lords will obviously want to test him before deciding to stick their necks out for him... good luck with that.

He has every single disadvantage and none of the advantages. The very definition of damaged goods. Neither Aegon nor Dany have that burden.

- i dont think wel.agree on this , theres no evidence it doesnt and it wouldnt make sense that a master of whispers cannot awnser any question about lands outside Kl.!.hes had 2.decades.to get spies in every region,.maybe not bloodraven levels but enough to at least hear enough whispers about any possible wavers

-not superheros no but dangerous enough that in flash can cause a lot of damage to anyone not named barristan, theyd need to be stopped by plenty of bodies which requires planning. 

My point was robert is often alome  with only some of the kingsguard (some.are with cersi and the kids) so if hes there with jamie and one of the 2 pro lanniter KG bobby b is dead.....even then if cersei gives the word none of his KG brothers have any reason to suspect hes about to kill one of them! And sven minus the element of suprise  in close combat  hes  levels above the nonbarristan KG  too  !!!  With lannsiter numbers in the city, corrupt bribeable.goldscloaks ,jamie and the hound together ...thus if they leave ia  rush after a sudden assasination of the king  stopping them will be very very hard !!

-not well liked but history is written by the winners, if they win the only issue is that so much of the manpower they used is just rented so theyd need serious westerosi allies..then againwed assume theyd have secured that AND their sellsword forces before moving

-their personalities are a factor but its mainly their heritage ....robeet ha sbuilt.his legitimacy on his targ heritage, of someone comes along with a better claim and enough force  to potentialy win then their personality isnt a huge thing...shit being arrogant eccentrics may add to their claim of being legit targs

Edited April 30, 2023 by astarkchoice

[Craving Peaches]

I'm sure Varys has some spies outside of King's Landing (I believe Olenna hints towards it) but not to the extent and density of his 'Little Birds' in King's Landing. Because the further away they are from him, the less control he has over them, and greater the risk that they let something slip.

[astarkchoice]

2 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I'm sure Varys has some spies outside of King's Landing (I believe Olenna hints towards it) but not to the extent and density of his 'Little Birds' in King's Landing. Because the further away they are from him, the less control he has over them, and greater the risk that they let something slip.

Yeah id say the little birds only work in KL and essos esp given they rely on the hidden passsges there. Outside that hed have regualr paid spies just as cersie and lf employ..itd be super embarassing (and possibly fatal)  if anything occured in a region and he had 0 clue. Hes had 2 decades to fan out a network from  unhappy/greedy servants to sneaky lords, travelling merchants , bards  to tavern wenches etc. Money talks and this is a society where people can starve from one bad farming season

[frenin]

2 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

- i dont think wel.agree on this , theres no evidence it doesnt and it wouldnt make sense that a master of whispers cannot awnser any question about lands outside Kl.!.hes had 2.decades.to get spies in every region,.maybe not bloodraven levels but enough to at least hear enough whispers about any possible wavers

I too agree to disagree.

I don't deny that he had something going on but i very much doubt the scope of it. It's not an uncommon thought that Varys is Batman but that is because we only see him doing his thing in KL.

Most of the info Robert would want anyway would be about how the Targlings are faring and how things in possible disloyal regions are shaking, Varys then will lie to Robert and further his paranoia.

 

6 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-not superheros no but dangerous enough that in flash can cause a lot of damage to anyone not named barristan, theyd need to be stopped by plenty of bodies which requires planning. 

Also Barristan is not a super hero.

I do not think it requires that much planning, court is always crowded.

 

7 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

My point was robert is often alome  with only some of the kingsguard (some.are with cersi and the kids) so if hes there with jamie and one of the 2 pro lanniter KG bobby b is dead...even then if cersei gives the word none of his KG brothers have any reason to suspect hes about to kill one of them and then poor robert! With lannsiter numbers in the city, corrupt bribeable.goldscloaks ,jamie and the hound together ...then if they leave ina  rush after a sudden assasination of the king  stopping them will be very very hard !!

1. More often than not Robert is in a room full of people, he'd only be alone when either he's with his family/hookers or with Ned, who is a combo.
2. If Robert gives the order, he'd obviously want the whole world to know his rage, it's pretty much impossible that they can kill Robert (if he finds out) and it not be suspected they did it.
3. The Lannisters numbers are not enough to overwhelm the rest of the court, they are not together always in the same place.
4. Again, the GC is pretty corrupt but it onlty took that leap once central government authority collapsed and it was jst Cersei and Ned, besides the fact that until the twincest was revealed Ned was very much commiting treason.
5. But let's say the kill Robert and then rush west... then what?

 

16 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-not well liked but history is written by the winners, if they win the only issue is that so much of the manpower they used is just rented so theyd need serious westerosi allies..then againwed assume theyd have secured that AND their sellsword forces before moving

History is written by historians, they need to win first to be in the position to influence them and having an army of foreign selllswords is a pretty good way to galvanizing people.

 

18 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-their personalities are a factor but its mainly their heritage ....robeet ha sbuilt.his legitimacy on his targ heritage, of someone comes along with a better claim and enough force  to potentialy win then their personality isnt a huge thing...shit being arrogant eccentrics may add to their claim of being legit targs

The heritage is the reason they are listening to them at all. It is not the reason they are deciding to risk the neck for them.

There is a reason why Viserys got laughed out of a room by the Golden Company while Aegon was able to convince them to invade Westeros.

Viserys' problem is not that he is arrogant and weird lol, he wishes those were the end of his flaws.

[astarkchoice]

1 minute ago, frenin said:

-i  too agree to disagree.

I don't deny that he had something going on but i very much doubt the scope of it. It's not an uncommon thought that Varys is Batman but that is because we only see him doing his thing in KL.

Most of the info Robert would want anyway would be about how the Targlings are faring and how things in possible disloyal regions are shaking, Varys then will lie to Robert and further his paranoia.

 

-Also Barristan is not a super hero.

I do not think it requires that much planning, court is always crowded.

 

1. More often than not Robert is in a room full of people, he'd only be alone when either he's with his family/hookers or with Ned, who is a combo.
2. If Robert gives the order, he'd obviously want the whole world to know his rage, it's pretty much impossible that they can kill Robert (if he finds out) and it not be suspected they did it.
3. The Lannisters numbers are not enough to overwhelm the rest of the court, they are not together always in the same place.
4. Again, the GC is pretty corrupt but it onlty took that leap once central government authority collapsed and it was jst Cersei and Ned, besides the fact that until the twincest was revealed Ned was very much commiting treason.
5. But let's say the kill Robert and then rush west... then what?

 

-History is written by historians, they need to win first to be in the position to influence them and having an army of foreign selllswords is a pretty good way to galvanizing people.

 

-The heritage is the reason they are listening to them at all. It is not the reason they are deciding to risk the neck for them.

There is a reason why Viserys got laughed out of a room by the Golden Company while Aegon was able to convince them to invade Westeros.

Viserys' problem is not that he is arrogant and weird lol, he wishes those were the end of his flaws.

-yeah id say hed have some level of spies.nationwide ot his littlebirds per say just regualr spies like he , cersei and lf also emply in KL.to watch each other .....if varys was utterly ignorant of basic rumblings that people.visting court from all over knew it would stand out like a sore thumb ,basic.  Local gossip level info at the bare minimum about feuds,deaths , embarasing stories etc 

-court is usualy crowded  yes but we are specificaly told such stuff bores robert..doesnt hold court much or vist small council ...unless hes at a tourney or banquet his normal day is  whores and drinking!!   so hel have 2-3KG at most, 2 of them are lannsiter stooges and only one of them is a match for jamie in a fight and thats minus element of suprise! So of cersei thought ned was gona tell its very likely jamie could add another king to his kil tally

As.for leaving again until they are discovered theyve time to flee, the lannsiter troops will all be together..hard to block.

-they arent that unpopular as westerosi lords do use them and  their ability to win battles vastly outweighs any negative pr....as.long as theres also sufficent local.dupport nailed down too its not an issue

-he was laughed oit of the room.on hos own yet later they expected him to be part of  force  they believed in, its whos  backinflg them.is the difference

[CassDarry]

7 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

he was laughed oit of the room.on hos own yet later they expected him to be part of  force  they believed in, its whos  backinflg them.is the difference

Yeah I thought they laughed at Viserys because it wasn't time yet rather than his off putting personality 

[astarkchoice]

8 minutes ago, CassDarry said:

Yeah I thought they laughed at Viserys because it wasn't time yet rather than his off putting personality 

Agreed he had 0 backing (seemingly)

The dorne proposed marriage alliance in bravos had grown cold, roberts regime had responded strongly and in unison to ironborm rebellion and thus by this stage vissrys and danys were just a  party attraction for rich bored essosi to talk about

[astarkchoice]

A huge x factor with the plan seems to the the ironborn

 

Now it does seem odd that the master of whispers misses the masing of the ironborn, esp the radio silence when they stopped letting ships leave their harbours to hide the assault.

[frenin]

12 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-yeah id say hed have some level of spies.nationwide ot his littlebirds per say just regualr spies like he , cersei and lf also emply in KL.to watch each other .....if varys was utterly ignorant of basic rumblings that people.visting court from all over knew it would stand out like a sore thumb ,basic.  Local gossip level info at the bare minimum about feuds,deaths , embarasing stories etc 

That's nearly not enough to gather the info you want him to have, as Varys himself relies.

Also and this is obvious, the further he gets from his base, the harder it is. I find it incredibly difficult to believe Varys has a reliable network from places as distant as Winterfell or Pyke.

And he'd also would be lying to Jon Arryn most of the time, so i don't really see how that's that relevant honestly.

 

12 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-court is usualy crowded  yes but we are specificaly told such stuff bores robert..doesnt hold court much or vist small council ...unless hes at a tourney or banquet his normal day is  whores and drinking!!   so hel have 2-3KG at most, 2 of them are lannsiter stooges and only one of them is a match for jamie in a fight and thats minus element of suprise! So of cersei thought ned was gona tell its very likely jamie could add another king to his kil tally

1. When i mean court, i mean every public and honestly private act a king is doing. Robert is only alone when talking to Ned (and more often than not the Kingsguard isn't there in those instances), when dining with his family or during the small council reunions (only Barri is there). If not he's always surrounded by (lots) people. Especialy at times he's whoring and drinking.
2. So it's pretty much impossible that Jaime can actually just kill Robert, unless someone were to drop the news to Robert in a moment he's alone with Jaime or just with two people. 
3. Being in Cersei's good graces and actively murdering your king are two very different things you tend to conflate easily.
4. Cersei did not know what Ned was aware of until Ned himseld told her and Ned told her the way he did because neither Robert nor Jaime were there. Ned is worried  about the children's wellbeing, not Jaime's. 

 

12 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

As.for leaving again until they are discovered theyve time to flee, the lannsiter troops will all be together..hard to block.

1. How would they not be discovered if they just kill the king publicly lol?
2. Why and how are the Lannister troops the only force in the city that is coordinated and lucky enough to be all together in one place? Isn't that a bit convenient?

 

12 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-they arent that unpopular as westerosi lords do use them and  their ability to win battles vastly outweighs any negative pr....as.long as theres also sufficent local.dupport nailed down too its not an issue

They are very much unpopular but inmoral pragmatism wins, btw the Westerosi lords use them in small amounts, an army of dozens of thousands of foreign sellswords are a very much new sight in Westerps.

 

12 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-he was laughed oit of the room.on hos own yet later they expected him to be part of  force  they believed in, its whos  backinflg them.is the difference

 

12 hours ago, CassDarry said:

Yeah I thought they laughed at Viserys because it wasn't time yet rather than his off putting personality 

 

12 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Agreed he had 0 backing (seemingly)

No, neither Illyrio, nor JonCon nor many of the captains of the Golden Company themselves wanted to invade Westeros, they were banking on waiting for Drogon to come. It is Aegon who actually convinces them to invade.

If Viserys had had Illyrio's backing but the reluctance of the Golden Company to commit to an invasion, he'd have failed to get them on because well, he's Viserys.

 

9 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

A huge x factor with the plan seems to the the ironborn

We keep adding people Varys isn't in contact with...