The Possibility of the Trajectory of Jon and Daenerys’ stories being swapped by the end of ASOIAF

[divica]

1 hour ago, Daeron the Daring said:

Even if we were to ignore (the more important) half of the story (the Others), foreign armies won't make anyone angry 

I wrote a reply earlier, but to make this clear: Dothraki? Bad. Superbad. Deserve to be eradicated style bad.

But I want to ask you: if you were a commoner riverlander, which one would you choose? The men of your village (maybe you too, not assuming a gender here) be conscripted into a war of someone else's benefit, or have professional armies do it in your stead (with the addition of dragons).

Have people like Amory Lorch and Gregor Clegane raze the countryside for supplies, or a well-mannered, organized, professional army do it, who are told to behave, and who do not fall into cruelty for the sake of it? George may or may not 'magically' (unrealistically, I mean) provide supplies to Daenerys' host, but I'm sure as hell the realistic way to do it would be collecting it from where it can be.

I don't think you are taking into account how bad the reputation of danny's troops is.

If I was a riverlander (and given all the chaos the war of the 5 kings brought to the region this is the worst region you could chose) I would volunteer into several wars if it would keep dothriaki, iron born, r'hllor zealots that like to burn people/simbols of the 7 and sellswords (because of all the death sellswords did in the region) as far away from me and my familly as possible.

1 hour ago, Daeron the Daring said:

Altough we see that Jon intends to supply the Watch from Essos, with Iron Bank funds, I'm not sure Daenerys is set up to partially or fully rely on this. I would say partially, the very least.

And thousands don't add up to the food shortage. Hundreds of thousands died already, some regions of Westeros were heavily exploited, but the food must be somewhere, even with additional waste, the last harvest didn't suffer that greatly. If it's not enough, then it's not enough. And if it's not enough, then it won't be because of the Others and the winter. And guess what, determined manpower is crucial to defeating the Others, altough I personally think the resolution won't come from a battle fought on a field.

Here you are forgetting the geography. you can only use essos as a food supply if you have a connection to the east coast. And in winter even that will be difficult. Jon has the advantage that braavos and eastwatch are close. So at least it is a feasable situation. Danny would need to control an important port on the east coast and keep her troops around it in order for the essos option to be viable.

[BlackLightning]

On 4/22/2023 at 9:45 AM, csuszka1948 said:

I have doubts whether she will be really in control of Western Essos. She will definitely free Volantis and take a visit to Pentos, but even if the slaves rebel in the other Free Cities, it doesn't mean they will want to ferry food to her because they will have their own troubles setting up their government.

Besides, I am not sure that Aegon won't have food to distribute. If he marries Sansa, the stocks of the Vale will be available to him and I don't expect the entire food storage of the Reach will be burned down either.

If you have doubts about Daenerys' control over western Essos (which is fair), then I have extreme doubts about Sansa marrying Aegon.

Not only is Sansa trying to avoid marrying kings and great lords, what is the point of Arianne if Sansa is just going to marry Aegon?

4 hours ago, divica said:

Jon has the advantage that braavos and eastwatch are close. So at least it is a feasable situation. Danny would need to control an important port on the east coast and keep her troops around it in order for the essos option to be viable.

Braavos and Eastwatch are not close. The maps show that Braavos is close to the Vale

Yes, Dany would need to control an important port on the east coast and have a military base therein. King's Landing will be held by her enemies and Dragonstone is an island. That leaves Duskendale, Gulltown, Saltpans, White Harbor and Sunspear. Duskendale is unlikely to happen for narrative reasons. Gulltown would be good choice if the roads out of the Vale weren't all closed due to winter. Saltpans isn't big enough and White Harbor is impractical on multiple levels. That leaves Sunspear as the only really viable port. And yes, it's very far south but it is a large port city that is easily defensible with a large river basin to beach ships. Also, Dorne might be the only place in Westeros where you can still grow food in winter.

[divica]

15 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

If you have doubts about Daenerys' control over western Essos (which is fair), then I have extreme doubts about Sansa marrying Aegon.

So you can be happy to know that I have extreme doubts about sansa marrying aegon and danny controling western essos.

16 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Braavos and Eastwatch are not close. The maps show that Braavos is close to the Vale

Yes, Dany would need to control an important port on the east coast and have a military base therein. King's Landing will be held by her enemies and Dragonstone is an island. That leaves Duskendale, Gulltown, Saltpans, White Harbor and Sunspear. Duskendale is unlikely to happen for narrative reasons. Gulltown would be good choice if the roads out of the Vale weren't all closed due to winter. Saltpans isn't big enough and White Harbor is impractical on multiple levels. That leaves Sunspear as the only really viable port. And yes, it's very far south but it is a large port city that is easily defensible with a large river basin to beach ships. Also, Dorne might be the only place in Westeros where you can still grow food in winter.

I may be wrong but don't the people in the book describe it as a short voyage?

And sunspear is probably on of the worse places for her to land. Given arianne's possible "friendship" with aegon and their familly ties if danny invades sunspear and takes control over it then her first act on westeros is to start a war with aegon anf the martells.

It is more likely that she will land in the north. And there are several good reason for her to do so. First, because she will think that it is still under the control of the boltons and therefore she could gain goodwill if she helps the north get rid of them. Second, because she can bring food to the north during winter and that would gain her automatic support. Third, if she wants to amend her familly's mistakes and prove she isn't aerys or rhaegar then making peace with the north is a great first step. Fourth, it is a good place to set a base of operations because no army will march north of the neck during winter so her people will be safe there.

So it is either the north for a eastern port or casterly rock for the simbolism. Most of the other places don't make much sense for 1 reason or another.

[Wisconsin]

On 4/21/2023 at 3:06 AM, King Maegor the Cool said:

Something I’ve thought about recently, is that Daenerys is clearly Azor Ahai, either the only one or one of two. She fulfills the prophecy before we even know about the prophecy. But up until we last saw her, her entire story has been about getting to Westeros, and reconquering it, and becoming Queen. However it seems inevitable that she’ll be deeply involved in the battle with others, and will perhaps take the leadership and hero role in the final battle. Which honestly feels insulting to Jon’s story, as he has been the only one actually preparing for the true threat, only to have Dany swoop in at the last minute, to take what feels like should be his role.

But I can also say that about Jon becoming King in the end of the story. It’s what Dany has worked towards for the entire story thus far, and to have him come in at the end and becoming King of Westeros instead of her, also feels a bit insulting Dany’s story thus far.

Perhaps George is steering the story in this direction? What do you all think?

Insults and hurting the feelings of his fandom is not stopping Martin from his story.  Jon and Dany already have their paths set.  Those were established early.  Jon's was to guard Westeros from the Others.  Dany locked on to the Emancipation of Slaver's Bay.  Martin will connect the two goals.  If I have to guess through Aegon.  Dany has all but given up on Westeros.  She made up her mind to rule Meereen and bring Emancipation to the slaves.  She only has two reasons to go to Westeros.  One, to meet her brother's son.  She wants a family almost as bad as Arya.  Two, to save Westeros from the Others.  Jon's story may have him taking lordship over the north after he wins the battle for winterfell.  Dany will have the support of the kingdoms in the south.  The north will support Jon as long as he comes back in human body.  Although it doesn't have to be Jon at all.  The next Stark to rule north may be Rickon.  The two characters in lock step with one another are Dany and Bran.  It isn't really a Dany and Jon thing.

It may too late to save Westeros by the time Dany decides to come.  The only thing left for her is a ruined landscape that must be rebuilt.  She has all those freemen to start populating and building back Westeros.  Jon will do what he does best, protecting his pack of Starks.  I don't see him ever leaving the north. 

Slavery and the existential threat of the Others are connected.  Slavery is where the Others get their soldiers.  They kill and use the corpse to fight their battles.  The Others and their methods are the same as those employed by Arya's cult.  They use the dead.  Arya and the FM use the dead to earn profit.  The Others use the dead to fight for them.  It's all slavery. 

[Daeron the Daring]

5 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Good friend, I appreciate your opinion, but I fear your are approaching the issue in a far more rational and enlightened manner than people in Westeros will.

Yes, that's why I also presented you the commoner viewpoint. Because...

5 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Daenerys and co. will be considered by some people as awful by default just because they are seen as foreigners.

Because commoners actually don't care, so long as it doesn't hurt them. I don't think Daenerys' 'cause' will start handicapped because she herself is a foreigner. She is not. And moreover, if Daenerys fails to realize that dothraki as a society funcion only with slaves, and still brings them over, I'm willing to put the books down. That is, if she has the capacity to bring them over, or has the chance to do so, along with those many zealots.

6 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

And just because she has these forces available, doesn't mean Daenerys and the people following her won't conscript peasants. 

What you fail realize is that Daenerys can conquer anything she wants with 3 dragons and the unsullied alone. And we haven't even began to talk about the support Westerosi may offer her. Because commoners have little to no weight on these things. The last time they had an influence on westerosi politics was the Dance. What they have now is only due to Cersei, and dealing with them is an urging problem of anyone who want to control KL.

It will ultimately come down to the aristocratic elite to decide beside or against Daenerys or anyone else for that matter. And we can rightfully expect a lot of conflicts (or conflict of interests) to emerge by the time she arrives, altough we have far more than enough ones to keep the whole story at a high stake.

My point is, someone like Daenerys not only will get at least 1 major faction's support, but her point, ultimately, as the second most important character (after Jon) in regards to the Others (aka everything that matters) will probably be conciliating the various factions/sides, rather than fighting her own wars, which are, in the end, pointless.

 

[Craving Peaches]

57 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

Because commoners actually don't care, so long as it doesn't hurt them.

But they do though? For example in F&B they really don't like the Rogares just because they are worshipping foreign Lysene gods.

58 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

What you fail realize is that Daenerys can conquer anything she wants with 3 dragons and the unsullied alone.

First she would have to find riders for the two other dragons. Second she has 10,000 Unsullied total (slightly less now) and no more will be made. Dragons can conquer yes, but they can't actually hold territory, otherwise why did Aegon I and co. bother raising an army? I would not say <10,000 Unsullied alone are enough to hold everything she needs to hold, especially since some will die in battle. There was a whole discussion in another thread about how Unsullied wouldn't be that effective realistically, but since this is a fantasy story and we are supposed to think they are the best of the best they will be, but they are not invincible or immune to risks other than dying on the battlefield like disease.

[SeanF]

Is nationalism much of an issue in Westeros?

Up till 1800 or so, no one much cared that the Empress of Russia was German, or the Kings of England, Scottish, Dutch or German, or that the Kings of Spain were a cadet branch of the Bourbons.  Rule by foreigners was pretty much the norm in Europe.

Hostility to anyone and anything foreign was part of the show, but is it a part of the books?

 

[Craving Peaches]

42 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Hostility to anyone and anything foreign was part of the show, but is it a part of the books?

Not necessarily foreign rulers but there is hostility to foreign people, can be seen by KL Commoners reaction to the Rogares in F&B, how people don't like the Dornish and vice versa, etc.

[Daeron the Daring]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

First she would have to find riders for the two other dragons.

Not true. Not only because she seems to have a more special connection with all three of them, but also because it's not without example that dragons were obedient (or conscious of what they should do/are commanded) without a rider, or the rider present.

And she might as well have some riders for those dragons.

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

But they do though? For example in F&B they really don't like the Rogares just because they are worshipping foreign Lysene gods.

Alright, then let me clarify myself: commoners don't care about shit unless everything is going bad. When it goes bad, they do blame whatever and whoever they like, often for no reason.

This is pretty well show, as kingslanders not only wish for Stannis (who had 0 popularity) instead of Joffrey's rule, but also cried back after Aerys. Aerys! They represent perfectly what 21st century people do as well: that it is extremely easy to forget how bad it was.

And, come on, half the country rose in support for Aerys. Again, Aerys! And you know why? Because of the stupid hierarchy nobility has, not because any commoner wanted to die for a madman, the most unfit person to rule, ever. But they went and died.

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Second she has 10,000 Unsullied total (slightly less now) and no more will be made.

Only 8100 to begin with.

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Dragons can conquer yes, but they can't actually hold territory, otherwise why did Aegon I and co. bother raising an army?

Aegon's conquest is the perfect example of people rallying behind the snowball-effect.

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I would not say <10,000 Unsullied alone are enough to hold everything she needs to hold, especially since some will die in battle

But nor are dothraki or freed slave volunteers are meant to hold Westeros. That's unimaginable, impossible. 

Alligeances change like the direction of the wind. Targaryen loyalists do exist, huge factions with even bigger grievances just as well. There's not even a point explaining it, it's plain simple. 

The weight of power is shifting around, with, or without Daenerys. Is she will try and unite Westeros by force, she'd have an easy time. That's why her attention will be elsewhere. Like, immediately.

6 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

There was a whole discussion in another thread about how Unsullied wouldn't be that effective realistically, but since this is a fantasy story and we are supposed to think they are the best of the best they will be, but they are not invincible or immune to risks other than dying on the battlefield like disease.

The Unsullied are obviously not as good as the people selling it say.

They are as strong as George makes them to be, honestly. He himself said that they are no better than peasant levies with a spear, which is dumb, even if he makes it that way.

They are, nonetheless, trained their whole life, stripped of any purpose in life, etc... They should be moderately better than semi-professional armies. If they're not, then, okay, I'm not bothered. (Let's not even go into army composition, etc)

I let this stuff go a long time ago, I don't read the books for the accuracy in such matters, hell, I don't even read them for the ending. We won't have that, only the dilemma. Which is intriguing, but it's all we really have left. I had high hopes for Winds, but the man is 75 this year, and has no intention of finishing his work. Or if he has, he (currently) lacks the intuition.

[csuszka1948]

On 4/24/2023 at 4:07 PM, Daeron the Daring said:

Not true. Not only because she seems to have a more special connection with all three of them, but also because it's not without example that dragons were obedient (or conscious of what they should do/are commanded) without a rider, or the rider present.

And she might as well have some riders for those dragons.

 

 

 

Except it is possible that Dany will offer Aegon to try to ride on of her dragons to prove that he is real and he will succeed. That would be a real shift in power.

Besides, Dany's dragons are not as huge as Balerion. They are not invincible.

On 4/24/2023 at 4:07 PM, Daeron the Daring said:

Alright, then let me clarify myself: commoners don't care about shit unless everything is going bad. When it goes bad, they do blame whatever and whoever they like, often for no reason.

This is pretty well show, as kingslanders not only wish for Stannis (who had 0 popularity) instead of Joffrey's rule, but also cried back after Aerys. Aerys! They represent perfectly what 21st century people do as well: that it is extremely easy to forget how bad it was.

And, come on, half the country rose in support for Aerys. Again, Aerys! And you know why? Because of the stupid hierarchy nobility has, not because any commoner wanted to die for a madman, the most unfit person to rule, ever. But they went and died.

 

 

 

They called for Stannis because he was effective at spreading the rumours about Joffrey's bastardry among the smallfolk, because they starved and blamed the Lannisters for it, and because they didn't forget Tywin's sack 20 years ago.

Why wouldn't they cry back for Aerys? Aerys was a madman but his madness was mostly constrained to his court (although it doesn't make much sense that Jon Arryn didn't spread anti-Targ propaganda after the rebels victory). He didn't starve his subjects and he didn't burn their fields (like Tywin). His rule was mostly peaceful and that's what the common folk remembers.

If the Dothraki arrive and behave as they behaved in Essos, they will quickly become hated, but Dany might be able to control them.

 

On 4/24/2023 at 4:07 PM, Daeron the Daring said:

Only 8100 to begin with.

Aegon's conquest is the perfect example of people rallying behind the snowball-effect.

But nor are dothraki or freed slave volunteers are meant to hold Westeros. That's unimaginable, impossible. 

Alligeances change like the direction of the wind. Targaryen loyalists do exist, huge factions with even bigger grievances just as well. There's not even a point explaining it, it's plain simple. 

The weight of power is shifting around, with, or without Daenerys. Is she will try and unite Westeros by force, she'd have an easy time. That's why her attention will be elsewhere. Like, immediately.

 

 

 

More than likely you are right.

 

On the other hand, Aegon would have already picked up all the Targaryen loyalists, an if Sansa marries him, he would also have support from the Vale and some of the Riverlords. He will be championed by the Faith while Dany will probably be named Azor Ahai and 'follow' R'hllor, a religion that is unpopular anywhere but the Riverlands.

Obviously, Dany would have numerical superiority but Aegon the (seemingly) better claim and better upbringing and if his side gains one dragonrider (through Aegon riding a dragon, Tyrion riding a dragon and turning cloaks etc.) it won't be a one sided war. 

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

2 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

Except it is possible that Dany will offer Aegon to try to ride on of her dragons to prove that he is real and he will succeed. That would be a real shift in power.

Besides, Dany's dragons are not as huge as Balerion. They are not invincible.

They called for Stannis because he was effective at spreading the rumours about Joffrey's bastardry among the smallfolk, because they starved and blamed the Lannisters for it, and because they didn't forget Tywin's sack 20 years ago.

Why wouldn't they cry back for Aerys? Aerys was a madman but his madness was mostly constrained to his court (although it doesn't make much sense that Jon Arryn didn't spread anti-Targ propaganda after the rebels victory). He didn't starve his subjects and he didn't burn their fields (like Tywin). His rule was mostly peaceful and that's what the common folk remembers.

If the Dothraki arrive and behave as they behaved in Essos, they will quickly become hated.

 

Yes, but Aegon would have already picked up all the Targaryen loyalists. If Sansa marries him, he would also have support from the Vale and some of the Riverlords. He will be championed by the Faith while Dany will probably be named Azor Ahai and 'follow' R'hllor, a religion that is unpopular anywhere but the Riverlands.

Obviously, Dany would have numerical superiority but Aegon the (seemingly) better claim and better upbringing and if his side gains one dragonrider (through Aegon riding a dragon, Tyrion riding a dragon and turning cloaks etc.) it won't be a one sided war. 

God help us if Tyrion gets a dragon