What if Cersei’s moronic plot to assassinate Robert failed?

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

And she and her children were all executed? How would the story transpire from then on?

Would Robert name Stannis his heir? Would he legitimize Edric Storm? Would Renly marry Margaery to Robert?

What happens with Tywin and the Lannisters? Do the Martells forgive Robert if they are given Tywin and Gregor’s heads?

[Craving Peaches]

Tywin rebels, everyone gangs up on Tywin.

I suspect Robert would probably marry Margaery in this scenario.

[Curled Finger]

I'm not certain this is Cersei's first attempt at killing Robert, maybe just her most successful.  Who knows?  Maybe it is Ned being the catalyst.  If Robert had Cersei and the children killed I suppose Tywin would throw a royal fit and rebel, certainly call in his markers.  However, I can see Ned being the voice of reason and talking Robert into allowing Cersei and the kids to go into exile.  Maybe just the kids and executing Jamie & Cersei.  Then he has to deal with the crown's huge debt to Tywin.  

Ned survives in this scenario and you have to sort of put yourself in the What Would Ned Do frame of mind for the story steps thereafter.  He would want peace with Tywin, he would want the children to live and he would want everyone ready for Winter.  With Edric Storm and then known bastards right there in the Vale and Kings Landing there would be no need for immediate marriages or heirs.  There are plenty to choose from.  It is a mere matter of recognizing and legitimizing for any or all of them.  While Ned may or may not have Stannis step up as heir in this scenario, he would definitely call Stannis back to the small council.  

Problem is, I don't know that Ned can control Robert anymore than Jon could.  Robert doesn't want to be king.  Regardless whom the next wife and children would be Robert would find a way to screw it all up again.  He had a beautiful wealthy woman and treated her like dirt.  Why would we expect him to treat another one any differently?

[Floki of the Ironborn]

Honestly, I think Ned would accept a war against Tywin. He's always resented how the Lannisters got away with committing war crimes, so this would be some retroactive punishment. 

[Nevets]

A lot depends on timing and what Cersei does.  If Robert survives long enough to return, I can see Cersei fleeing, probably to Casterly Rock, though that might not be apparent for awhile.

She might or might not take the kids with her.  She might dump the whole issue on Ned, figuring he wouldn't let Robert kill them, which would likely precipitate a political crisis.  She's probably right.  Or she could keep them in reserve, in the hope of a Lannister victory.

Robert might marry Margaery (I'm sure he can find an excuse to ditch Cersei), and name Stannis as a placeholder heir until he has a child on his new wife.  The only bastard that is a possibility would be Edric, and I don't see it.  Stannis or Renly would be a better fit.  And none of the other bastards has nearly the background required.

Tywin wouldn't sit still; he's already rampaging through the Riverlands.  He's rich, with lots of loyal vassals, and would be very difficult to dislodge.  Even with no open warfare, things would be very unstable for a long time.

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I'm not certain this is Cersei's first attempt at killing Robert, maybe just her most successful.  Who knows?  Maybe it is Ned being the catalyst.  If Robert had Cersei and the children killed I suppose Tywin would throw a royal fit and rebel, certainly call in his markers.  However, I can see Ned being the voice of reason and talking Robert into allowing Cersei and the kids to go into exile.  Maybe just the kids and executing Jamie & Cersei.  Then he has to deal with the crown's huge debt to Tywin.  

Ned survives in this scenario and you have to sort of put yourself in the What Would Ned Do frame of mind for the story steps thereafter.  He would want peace with Tywin, he would want the children to live and he would want everyone ready for Winter.  With Edric Storm and then known bastards right there in the Vale and Kings Landing there would be no need for immediate marriages or heirs.  There are plenty to choose from.  It is a mere matter of recognizing and legitimizing for any or all of them.  While Ned may or may not have Stannis step up as heir in this scenario, he would definitely call Stannis back to the small council.  

Problem is, I don't know that Ned can control Robert anymore than Jon could.  Robert doesn't want to be king.  Regardless whom the next wife and children would be Robert would find a way to screw it all up again.  He had a beautiful wealthy woman and treated her like dirt.  Why would we expect him to treat another one any differently?

I think Ned would want to use it to bring Tywin to justice for what he did to the Targaryens. Perhaps he’d convince Robert to exile Cersei and her children, at the expense of Tywin and Jaime. Allow Kevan to take over as Lord of Casterly Rock

[astarkchoice]

She knows ned is gonna tell thus she needs him.dead, either talk lancel into doing something more serious or talk to pycell.or at ask 

At a push she can fry and recall.jamie and/or the mountain. 

2 of the kingguard are hersand has unlimited gold to bribe the some.of the  already corrupt goldcloaks 

Or shit the woman is ruthless enough to try and surpise him herself with a blade or one of joffs crossbows

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

20 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

She knows ned is gonna tell thus she needs him.dead, either talk lancel into doing something more serious or talk to pycell.or at ask 

At a push she can fry and recall.jamie and.fhemounfù

Poisoning Ned actually isn’t that bad of a plan. She could say he got sick from his leg injury.

[Curled Finger]

15 minutes ago, Lady Stonehearts Simp said:

I think Ned would want to use it to bring Tywin to justice for what he did to the Targaryens. Perhaps he’d convince Robert to exile Cersei and her children, at the expense of Tywin and Jaime. Allow Kevan to take over as Lord of Casterly Rock

Yah, I think Ned would definitely want Jamie to pay however the chips might fall with Cersei.  Given Ned's stance on child killing I think you're probably right on Tywin, too.   I'm just not certain what sort of resistance Tywin would be able to muster in his own defense.  I imagine it would be much more an offense such as we saw in the Riverlands, an innocent middle ground he could hold hostage to terrorism.  He's got enough money to hire every sell sword in Essos and buy a lot of lower nobles out of debt into his.  Could he buy the IT and terrorize what he can't against a bad King and inexperienced Hand with a table of bad advisors with their own agendas?   

[Nevets]

Another possibility is that Cersei brazens it out, denies the accusation and demands a public trial.  It's essentially her word against Ned's.  And especially if Robert is gunning for the children as well, it could put Ned in a bad spot.  Keeping the children around is problematic, since they could be a threat to any alternative succession.

I would expect Tywin to call his banners and threaten the Riverlands and the Reach (to keep the Tyrells and especially Margaery out of it).  

The children would be a problem in any case, because I don't see Ned allowing them to be killed, but they are an ongoing threat if alive, though I suppose Joffrey and later Tommen could get sent to the Wall.

[Lady Ella]

The sensible thing would be for Cersei to flee across the Narrow Sea or to Casterly Rock with her kids, but the Lannisters seem to have difficulty admitting defeat and giving up power, so somehow I find that hard to imagine. She would probably try to find another way to have him killed.

The interesting question for me is, if Robert survives, would Ned be able to persuade him to spare the children? If not, I think that would be the end of their friendship and so the end of Stark fealty to the Iron Throne, so I think we would get a scenario like the War of Five Kings anyway.

[Nevets]

8 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

Yah, I think Ned would definitely want Jamie to pay however the chips might fall with Cersei.  Given Ned's stance on child killing I think you're probably right on Tywin, too.   I'm just not certain what sort of resistance Tywin would be able to muster in his own defense.  I imagine it would be much more an offense such as we saw in the Riverlands, an innocent middle ground he could hold hostage to terrorism.  He's got enough money to hire every sell sword in Essos and buy a lot of lower nobles out of debt into his.  Could he buy the IT and terrorize what he can't against a bad King and inexperienced Hand with a table of bad advisors with their own agendas?   

Tywin is not only stinking rich - he can probably buy every sell sword company out there - he pretty much owns his vassals lock, stock, and castle.  If he tells them his daughter is being wronged for base personal and political reasons by Ned, he can probably get their support.  There is little proof against Cersei.

He might not win, but he could certainly cause lots of trouble and be difficult to defeat.

[Curled Finger]

1 minute ago, Nevets said:

Tywin is not only stinking rich - he can probably buy every sell sword company out there - he pretty much owns his vassals lock, stock, and castle.  If he tells them his daughter is being wronged for base personal and political reasons by Ned, he can probably get their support.  There is little proof against Cersei.

He might not win, but he could certainly cause lots of trouble and be difficult to defeat.

That's what I am thinking here.  When you posted he would attack the Reach to block the Tyrells I thought we were on the same wave length.  It becomes essentially another version of the WOT5K told differently.  It is Tywin and Jamie's march on the Iron Throne and brave Robert and Ned's fight to keep it.  With frickin Littlefinger plotting to take them all down and Varys plotting to introduce a new contender and Balon brooding on his bridge.  You write Stannis and Renly in anywhere you like.  Jon's still at the Wall and Robb and Cat stay in Winterfell.  

I don't know how Cersei could win anything in Kings Landing.   The people loathe her.   This great illuminating knowledge in the lineages book was enough to convince Jon Arryn and Stannis and Ned.  People already predisposed not to like a ruler in the first place will take what measure they can to humiliate or penalize said ruler if given the opportunity.  She could ask for a public trial, but I don't think she could win it, not in this scenario.  Not with the king himself making the accusations against her.   He is the word and final say.  It's a very Henry the VIII sort of situation to me.    

[Nevets]

10 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

That's what I am thinking here.  When you posted he would attack the Reach to block the Tyrells I thought we were on the same wave length.  It becomes essentially another version of the WOT5K told differently.  It is Tywin and Jamie's march on the Iron Throne and brave Robert and Ned's fight to keep it.  With frickin Littlefinger plotting to take them all down and Varys plotting to introduce a new contender and Balon brooding on his bridge.  You write Stannis and Renly in anywhere you like.  Jon's still at the Wall and Robb and Cat stay in Winterfell.  

I don't know how Cersei could win anything in Kings Landing.   The people loathe her.   This great illuminating knowledge in the lineages book was enough to convince Jon Arryn and Stannis and Ned.  People already predisposed not to like a ruler in the first place will take what measure they can to humiliate or penalize said ruler if given the opportunity.  She could ask for a public trial, but I don't think she could win it, not in this scenario.  Not with the king himself making the accusations against her.   He is the word and final say.  It's a very Henry the VIII sort of situation to me.    

I wasn't suggesting that Tywin would actually attack the Reach; just station troops along the border to intimidate them.  All he needs from them is to sit at home and do nothing, and not allow Margaery to be proposed as a replacement Queen.

I don't recall Cersei being unpopular at that point.  Obviously, by the time of the Walk of Shame, she was hated, but she been running things, badly, for a while by then.  When Robert was alive I think she was something of a non-entity.  

Robert was popular, so the logical thing to do would be to blame Ned.  The fact that Ned's wife had taken Cersei's brother captive would lead credence to the idea that Ned had it in for her family and was lying to cause trouble.  Ned is an unknown quantity to most people.  

Even if she loses, she causes massive trouble for everyone involved.  And of course fighting is practically a foregone conclusion.

[csuszka1948]

I think Cersei has two options:

1) immediately make a blatant assassination attempt on Robert. If she fails (likely since very few men besides Jaime would obey this command), she and likely her children (or at the very least Joffrey) get killed.

If she succeeds, there is complete chaos and bloodbath. It's difficult to guess what would happen, but most likely Renly takes over and either invites Stannis to the Throne (if Ned survives) or takes the royal family hostage and rules in their name or crowns himself (if Ned doesn't survive and he cannot capture Joffrey).

2) immediately flee to CR upon hearing that Robert has returned. Ned would tell Robert the truth who would believe him. The next thing Robert would ask him is that how could Cersei find out his plans at the very last moment, and Ned would admit to him that he warned her. Robert would get enraged (both by the treason and the assumption that he would kill Cersei's children), fire and probably imprison Ned for treason, while naming Renly his Hand. Renly would recommend him to marry Margaery and Robert would probably accept it. With that, the entire Stormlands, Reach, Crowlands and Riverlands would stand against the Lannisters who would likely get crushed, unless Robert gets killed somehow (poison by Pycelle, rashness in the battlefield). Once Robert calms down, he would probably allow Ned to go home (or Renly would convince him to do so), but their relation will be forever damaged.

 

Overall, the Lannisters cannot win while Robert is alive.

[Curled Finger]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

I wasn't suggesting that Tywin would actually attack the Reach; just station troops along the border to intimidate them.  All he needs from them is to sit at home and do nothing, and not allow Margaery to be proposed as a replacement Queen.

I don't recall Cersei being unpopular at that point.  Obviously, by the time of the Walk of Shame, she was hated, but she been running things, badly, for a while by then.  When Robert was alive I think she was something of a non-entity.  

Robert was popular, so the logical thing to do would be to blame Ned.  The fact that Ned's wife had taken Cersei's brother captive would lead credence to the idea that Ned had it in for her family and was lying to cause trouble.  Ned is an unknown quantity to most people.  

Even if she loses, she causes massive trouble for everyone involved.  And of course fighting is practically a foregone conclusion.

You know, you're right.  I was thinking the bread riots and that is of course, after Robert dies.  You raise the stakes in having Cat take Tyrion at this point.  Fair enough and this really would paint Ned in desperate shades with everyone, but with Robert?  Maybe.  I don't think Stannis would be of any help at all to Ned in this matter, but do you think Robert would allow the besmirching of the claim to stand against him?  It is right there in the book, in Robert, Renly and Stannis.   Baratheons have dark haired children.  Ned can point to Gendry and Mya and Stannis can point to Edric against Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen.  I'm trying to put myself in Robert's place, knowing what little of him there is in the books.  Cersei seems to win every time.  Is Robert reasonable at all?  Is he likely to consider this later or was it only on his death bed that he saw the wisdom in not killing Dany?  I don't know.  Ned talks him out of participating in the the Hand's Tourney, but that's a small thing.  If we allow for Cat to take Tyrion war has already been declared and the parentage of Cersei's children becomes a much smaller matter.  It is all treason at this point.  

Even so, as you say, the damage is done.  I can see Cersei staying because she is queen and that tenaciously power hungry.  Still, all that pride with him and with her, I just can't imagine it would be a nice thing at all, not that it actually was.  Robert will end up dead eventually because her pride is bigger than his.  Maybe there is no way to take her down?  Maybe the Lannisters need to burn themselves out because they are just that fierce and wealthy and powerful?  

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Long live Queen  Margaery !!

[frenin]

13 hours ago, Nevets said:

Another possibility is that Cersei brazens it out, denies the accusation and demands a public trial.

Martin has talked about the topic a few times and he has always agreed with Ned and Cat that Robert would have Cersei killed inmediately.

So i don't think Cersei will get the benefit of a public trial unless she's the hell away from Robert, till he has calmed down.

 

13 hours ago, Nevets said:

he can probably buy every sell sword company out there

It doesn't really matter now does it? Without having naval superiority, those sellswords wouldn't even be able to cross the Narrow Sea.

I think that Tywin can be very problematic if he holes up in Casterly Rock or and employs terrorism. But direct warfare is a doomed initiative.

The Crown would declare him a traitor, cancel whatever debt any company or lord had with him and use the money owed to him against him.

So it's a matter of whether he can actually convince non western lords to rebel with his people's skills, if not, he's getting jumped and he's getting jumped fast, far too many people been having his number for decades. 

If say the Reach, the Riverlands and the Ironborn were to invade or plunder the West... well, he's toast.

 

I think Cersei would have either attempted to kill Robert and if he dies he dies or simply flee to Casterly Rock for a last stand.

She'd need to use her chldren as bargaining chip to other houses, how succesful would that move be with the King reneging on them and multiple regions against her, it's up to the imagination of the readers.