Would Robb have been better off in the long run if he just stormed the Twins in the first place, or not?

[Craving Peaches]

He would probably lose a lot of men, but assuming he could take it he avoids having to barter with the Freys only for them to backstab him later, because there is no wedding they can take advantage of. Of course a lot could go wrong. But in the long run, if he successfully stormed the Twins and punished the Freys for lack of loyalty to their Tully overlords (like Hoster did with Lord Goodbrook) he avoids the Red Wedding. Harder for Roose to just turn on him too because the Red Wedding opportunity wouldn't arise. So all the men he threw away at Duskendale wouldn't necessarily die. What do you think?

[Alden Rothack]

5 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

He would probably lose a lot of men, but assuming he could take it he avoids having to barter with the Freys only for them to backstab him later, because there is no wedding they can take advantage of. Of course a lot could go wrong. But in the long run, if he successfully stormed the Twins and punished the Freys for lack of loyalty to their Tully overlords (like Hoster did with Lord Goodbrook) he avoids the Red Wedding. Harder for Roose to just turn on him too because the Red Wedding opportunity wouldn't arise. So all the men he threw away at Duskendale wouldn't necessarily die. What do you think?

The question is could he take it before riverrun falls to jaime because the siege of riverrun had already lasted a considerable time, i'm inclined to think he could since the freys aren't very competent.

However that won't neccessarily keep Roose loyal, he was always going to betray Rob if he thought he could get away with it.

[Corvo the Crow]

17 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

He would probably lose a lot of men, but assuming he could take it he avoids having to barter with the Freys only for them to backstab him later, because there is no wedding they can take advantage of. Of course a lot could go wrong. But in the long run, if he successfully stormed the Twins and punished the Freys for lack of loyalty to their Tully overlords (like Hoster did with Lord Goodbrook) he avoids the Red Wedding. Harder for Roose to just turn on him too because the Red Wedding opportunity wouldn't arise. So all the men he threw away at Duskendale wouldn't necessarily die. What do you think?

I doubt that he could've taken the castle within a few days, so  definitely not as it would allow Tywin to attack his rear.

But there's a chance that not crossing the bridge and attacking Tywin whether with or without the help of Freys may have been a lot better. Roose is able to get the drop on Tywin, we witness that Tywin's army still hasn't fully formed their lines when Tyrion learns of Roose's night march. Roose didn't take much advantage of his nightmarch, he could've sent his cavalry to cause some confusion but it could be understood he didn't want to risk them as there were very few to begin with. If he had more cavalry he could have sent them ahead and really have wreaked havoc long before Tywin's lines formed. Robb could've won the battle then and there. 

[SeanF]

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

He would probably lose a lot of men, but assuming he could take it he avoids having to barter with the Freys only for them to backstab him later, because there is no wedding they can take advantage of. Of course a lot could go wrong. But in the long run, if he successfully stormed the Twins and punished the Freys for lack of loyalty to their Tully overlords (like Hoster did with Lord Goodbrook) he avoids the Red Wedding. Harder for Roose to just turn on him too because the Red Wedding opportunity wouldn't arise. So all the men he threw away at Duskendale wouldn't necessarily die. What do you think?

Why not just construct a pontoon bridge over the river?  He must have done so to cross rivers earlier.

Westeros must have military engineers who can construct such bridges, and we know there are plenty of boats on the Trident.

Edited June 7 by SeanF

[astarkchoice]

55 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

He would probably lose a lot of men, but assuming he could take it he avoids having to barter with the Freys only for them to backstab him later, because there is no wedding they can take advantage of. Of course a lot could go wrong. But in the long run, if he successfully stormed the Twins and punished the Freys for lack of loyalty to their Tully overlords (like Hoster did with Lord Goodbrook) he avoids the Red Wedding. Harder for Roose to just turn on him too because the Red Wedding opportunity wouldn't arise. So all the men he threw away at Duskendale wouldn't necessarily die. What do you think?

Nope tywin is at harrenhall..if robb begins a seige tywin is close enough to attack the siege in the rear and end the war right there

 

His own officers have already ruled out assault.  His army could try but given the impressive level of fortifications  its just as likey they fail or win with a phyrric casulty rate  that ends the war anyway

[Alden Rothack]

7 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Nope tywin is at harrenhall..if robb begins a seige tywin is close enough to attack the siege in the rear and end the war right there

Harrenhall is further from the twins riverrun and seagard and on the same side of the green folk

[astarkchoice]

Just now, Alden Rothack said:

Harrenhall is further from the twins riverrun and seagard and on the same side of the green folk

Still close enough to get their in days...to end any siege before it could even realisticly get  properly underway!! 

Doesnt matter what side either dude

 If rob besiges it properly it means both castles are under siege thus tywins forces arrive and easily swat away half his army..cross the bridge and do the same with the other half...basic warfarw is you cannot besige a xlcastle with an enemy force nearby.

If hes only besieging one half its not really a siege and tywins forces can easily cross the  freys bridge and smash the host on the other side at ease. 

[Alden Rothack]

4 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Still close enough to get their in days...to end any siege before it could even realisticly get  properly underway!! 

not unless they can fly, Tywin isn't going to get there in fighting condition in less than two weeks and thats after he hears about it, Jaime is closer but still further than seagard

4 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Doesnt matter what side either dude

 If rob besiges it properly it means both castles are under siege thus tywins forces arrive and easily swat away half his army..cross the bridge and do the same with the other half...basic warfarw is you cannot besige a xlcastle with an enemy force nearby.

If hes only besieging one half its not really a siege and tywins forces can easily cross the  freys bridge and smash the host on the other side at ease. 

Does the phrase Killbox mean anything to you, Rob should pray that Tywin is foolish enough to send his army over the bridge under fire and against an entenched force with days to prepare for his arrival.

Even Jaime isn't that rash.

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, Alden Rothack said:

-not unless they can fly, Tywin isn't going to get there in fighting condition in less than two weeks and thats after he hears about it, Jaime is closer but still further than seagard

-Does the phrase Killbox mean anything to you, Rob should pray that Tywin is foolish enough to send his army over the bridge under fire and against an entenched force with days to prepare for his arrival.

Even Jaime isn't that rash.

-robbs leadership literaly tell us they cant besige it in time to stop tywin getting to them..walder even mocks them about it as he strikes his deal.  Hes a few days at most away. This isnt up for debate the main characters literalty tell us so

 

-if robb is only on one side even with his full force  he cant build anything close to a suitable barrier to stop under 20k men crossing  even with a few days notice because hes under the twins....literaly being shot at  by huge scorpion bolts and archers all day (and all with the  huge range advantage of elevation being way up on those walls.) Once tywin arrives his archers will prob join them so robb  would either retreat or mass his troops to try and  resist tywin breaking out ....  and doing hed give the  archers and scorpion operators at the twins a shooting gallery!!! 

He can of course pull back but then the relief force can easily advance out at will.

 

Again you CANNOT hold a siege and fight off a  relief force its almost impossible.

[Alden Rothack]

4 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-robbs leadership literaly tell us they cant besige it in time to stop tywin getting to them..walder even mocks them about it as he strikes his deal.  Hes a few days at most away. This isnt up for debate the main characters literalty tell us so

Not from where hes stated to be hes not, the twins are about four hundred miles from where tywins is at the crossroads.

 

4 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

 

-if robb is only on one side even with his full force  he cant build anything close to a suitable barrier to stop under 20k men crossing  even with a few days notice because hes under the twins....literaly being shot at  by huge scorpion bolts and archers all day (and all with the  huge range advantage of elevation being way up on those walls.) Once tywin arrives his archers will prob join them so robb  would either retreat or mass his troops to try and  resist tywin breaking out ....  and doing hed give the  archers and scorpion operators at the twins a shooting gallery!!! 

He can of course pull back but then the relief force can easily advance out at will.

 

Again you CANNOT hold a siege and fight off a  relief force its almost impossible.

your not going to be within bow range of the twins because you don't need to be and its stupid for exactly the reason that you identified, you only need to be close enough to stop supplies from getting in.

Robb isn't going to give the freys the chance to link up with Tywin and with his full force he can plasibly defeat him.

it could go the other way of course but its not the certainy you suggest.

[astarkchoice]

11 minutes ago, Alden Rothack said:

-Not from where hes stated to be hes not, the twins are about four hundred miles from where tywins is at the crossroads.

 

-your not going to be within bow range of the twins because you don't need to be and its stupid for exactly the reason that you identified, you only need to be close enough to stop supplies from getting in.

Robb isn't going to give the freys the chance to link up with Tywin and with his full force he can plasibly defeat him.

it could go the other way of course but its not the certainy you suggest.

-again we are literaly told tywin would march up and end any  realistic siege . Its far too strong a keep.

 

-if your  well outside of bow range you arent stopping any force crossing  (nor is it really much of a siege anymore) 

Even if you could stop all suppies getting in (ie split   your forces on both sides of the river) its got twice the supplies inside of a normal.castle (as its actualy 2) and its got a water supply (and possibly even fish!!) Even then you arent starving them out before reinforcements arrive and sweep away your thinly spread forces

[Alden Rothack]

2 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-again we are literaly told tywin would march up and end any  realistic siege . Its far too strong a keep.

not quickly enough to prevent Robb from bringing his full force together and moving to intercept, anything else makes no sense based on where Tywin is located when he learns Robb is at the Twins.

 

2 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

 

-if your  well outside of bow range you arent stopping any force crossing  (nor is it really much of a siege anymore) 

Even if you could stop all suppies getting in (ie split   your forces on both sides of the river) its got twice the supplies inside of a normal.castle (as its actualy 2) and its got a water supply (and possibly even fish!!) Even then you arent starving them out before reinforcements arrive and sweep away your thinly spread forces

Besieging from outside of bow range is actually very common and highly effective as supplies still have come along the roads and are easily spotted, you can still your forces together in the event you need to fight a major battle such as against tywin, now the freys should sally and try to join tywin that way but even thats not a certain sucess.

However given what Robbs goals are besieging the twins is only possible if he can cross the river elsewhere and if he can cross then he doesn't need to take the twins so theres now no point in doing so.

I still have grave doubts that taking the twins was a better idea than making a deal however the deal could have been better, marrying immediately for example would make it harder for the freys to back out later.

 

[Fencer]

It should be stressed too that fully besieging the Twins means splitting forces across the river--the very value of the Twins being the only secure crossing point also greatly compounds any attempted siege.  For all intents and purposes, the besiegers are stuck conducting two independent operations; the inability to effectively cross nearby means that command and control, resupply, and maneuver are split across the river.  Material and personnel cannot be moved with any ease between the two, meaning that reinforcement of one side by the other is not reasonably possible.

This poses as many challenges for the besieger as the besieged.  Contravallination to defend against reinforcements to the Twins (Tywin or others) while possible, take a lot of time and effort, and would even further strain the already distributed force.

On top of all that, exactly when or how would Robb's forces go about initiating this siege?  Move half the army across through the Twins, then (I guess the next day) instead of moving the rest across, begin the operation?  This would mean the force that had already crossed would be very restricted on supplies and reinforcement, having only what they crossed with, while also being the most exposed to counter attack.

It all seems like a very dicey prospect, particularly for not even being the reason for raising this army in the first place, and Robb didn't have the foresight of knowing what would happen a few books later.

[James Arryn]

Getting caught in a siege with an enemy army in the field is like one of the greatest blunders a commander can make, especially during the medieval period when armies were smaller and less compartmentalized. It’s how Robb overcomes huge numerical disparity at Riverrun, it’s how Stannis gets rolled up at the BW and in turn rolls up the wildlings, again despite numerical superiority. It’s about as vulnerable as an army can be, it’s basically a rout waiting to happen. It, at the very least, means you are starting the battle off with enemies to your front and~ rear, the latter completely entrenched. It’s a disaster. 

Edited June 7 by James Arryn

[Craving Peaches]

8 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Getting caught in a siege with an enemy army in the field is like one of the greatest blunders a commander can make, especially during the medieval period when armies were smaller and less compartmentalized.

This is why I don't get why people think Stannis could have won that battle had he not killed Renly.

[astarkchoice]

3 hours ago, Alden Rothack said:

-not quickly enough to prevent Robb from bringing his full force together and moving to intercept, anything else makes no sense based on where Tywin is located when he learns Robb is at the Twins.

 

Besieging from outside of bow range is actually very common and highly effective as supplies still have come along the roads and are easily spotted, you can still your forces together in the event you need to fight a major battle such as against tywin, now the freys should sally and try to join tywin that way but even thats not a certain sucess.

However given what Robbs goals are besieging the twins is only possible if he can cross the river elsewhere and if he can cross then he doesn't need to take the twins so theres now no point in doing so.

I still have grave doubts that taking the twins was a better idea than making a deal however the deal could have been better, marrying immediately for example would make it harder for the freys to back out later.

 

If robb drops the siege and attacks tywin theres a good chance walder sallys forth and attacks  from behind

 

 

If he settlesetles down ta.log term siege hes screewed as tywkn  will come but if they tfy and force it with sheer numbers fhrud lose so many tysmsin co uuld wfj

Edited June 7 by astarkchoice

[sifth]

Robb had no siege weapons and equipment and I don't think he had the time to make them. Truth be told the marriage deal was good, so was Robb leaving a garrison of loyal northern men to help the Freys defend The Twins. If Edmure hadn't ordered the loyal northern men away from The Twins, the Freys might not have been able to pull off the Red Wedding; not with half the soldiers at The Twins loyal to Robb and the North. 

Edited June 7 by sifth

[Alden Rothack]

7 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

If robb drops the siege and attacks tywin theres a good chance walder sallys forth and attacks  from behind

 

 

If he settlesetles down ta.log term siege hes screewed as tywkn  will come but if they tfy and force it with sheer numbers fhrud lose so many tysmsin co uuld wfj

yes both of those things could happen or robb tricks the freys into sallying early, destroys them easily then goes to fight tywin with an equal sized army that hasn't fast marched four hundred miles to get there.

[The hairy bear]

2 hours ago, Alden Rothack said:

robb tricks the freys into sallying early, destroys them easily then goes to fight tywin with an equal sized army that hasn't fast marched four hundred miles to get there.

1. Robb can go to fight Tywin without needing to destroy the Freys before. Why would he sacrifice time and manpower for to force submission from a third party without no strategical gain at all?
2. Why on earth would the Freys would ever try to make a sally against a greater army when they stand in a much stronger fortified position? Specially when the besieging forces are only blocking one of the two entries to the castle, allowing them to resupply at will? No commander would be stupid enough to make that mistake.

 

 

[astarkchoice]

3 hours ago, Alden Rothack said:

yes both of those things could happen or robb tricks the freys into sallying early, destroys them easily then goes to fight tywin with an equal sized army that hasn't fast marched four hundred miles to get there.

Medieval forces sallied out all the time though (a well.timed attack on spread out siege forces can yield immense damage or even break the siege entirely) ,  they can safely retreat to whatever fortress they are holding ... its one of the many advantages a huge castle brings! Edit  Shit it even has a barbican on both sides to help facilitate easy attacks out without comprimising the castles security. 

 

Also 

He cant go to meet tywin in battle either  because even a costly victory there puts him.back to square one ie needing to cross the twins with a now  badly mauled force while jamies siege of riverrun continues. 

More likely if hes dumb enough to besige the twins then  break the same  siege to chase tywin.....tywin will just  retreat to harrenhall ( as he has no reason as yet to assume the vale isnt comming).  By the time robb marches back hel.find the freys have scoured all wood  and supplies for miles around , trashed whatever siegeworks they got started before...all this with the clock ticking at riverrun.

Edited June 8 by astarkchoice