Worst diplomatic moment in the series ?

[Alden Rothack]

4 minutes ago, frenin said:

Who others?

 

They don't need to stop hating each other, they just need to, even if they try to undermine each other's positions, collabore to get shit done and save their necks, which they d

 

He rejected allegiance, not a truce, so did Stannis.

And it was always "others", Cat and Cressen, who urged for a temporary truce, the thought never crossed either broother's mind and when it was presented to them they flat out rejected it.

But given you last take, i will simply  agree to disagree.

okay

[csuszka1948]

On 6/10/2023 at 4:37 PM, Craving Peaches said:

Stannis could have had a lot more support if he acted sooner. It gets even weirder when you consider he was prepping for war before it happened by hiring sellswords and stuff but then when it comes to actually getting word out about his claim he waits for ages.

 

I also feel that's a very big plot contrivance.

Yes, Stannis is stubborn and he had many reasons to retreat to Dragonstone, but it makes little sense why didn't he send out his letters earlier.

 

The best explanation I have is that Stannis the kind of person who thinks certain things are so 'obvious' (bc they are obvious to HIM) that he doesn't need to explain himself. 

[csuszka1948]

On 6/11/2023 at 12:33 AM, Craving Peaches said:

Walder's betrayal of Robb Stark was very bad. You don't break guest right and murder thousands of people over a broken contract. It wasn't about honour. Walder didn't have any honour. Greed will bring his ruin.

 

 

 

Honestly, I feel the Freys would have been much better off if he betrayed Robb Stark on the field.

Imagine the Freys and the Boltons attacking the rest of Robb Stark's forces when they assault Moat Cailin. I feel it's likely that they would have managed to take them by surprise and kill Robb.

Compared to this scenario, what did Walder Frey gain with the RW besides personal satisfaction, really?

1) No loss of soldiers in battle: does it really matter to Walder Frey how many Frey soldiers die?

2) Additional hostages: they are useful for keeping the North in check (thus for Boltons), but why they are necessary for the Freys? The Lannisters and Tyrells have the armies to take the Riverlands under control with the help of Freys

3) Surety that Robb is dead: again, why is it so important for the Freys? Even if Robb has somehow survived such a betrayal, his army would be so reduced that he wouldn't be able return to the Riverlands

Edited June 13, 2023 by csuszka1948

[csuszka1948]

On 6/10/2023 at 5:49 PM, GZ Bloodraven said:

Ned telling Cersei he knew. It's not even a "get me my daughters" trade like Catelyn and Jaime, or a "I'm being radicalized into a cult" like Stannis, it's just a misappropriation of mercy, attempting to extend an olive branch and falling off the fucking tree and damning the realm and his family.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I wouldn't call it a bad diplomatic moment, rather misjudging Cersei's personality - thinking that she loves her children more than she loves power. 

Imagine if Cersei took Ned's warning to heart and fled with her children, taking them accross the Narrow Sea. This would have avoided a possible war with Tywin and would have made the guilt of Cersei clear for all to see (making Tywin the ridicule of the realm instead). 

 

Also, Cat releasing Jaime is much more reasonable than it appears in hindsight:

1) After the death of Rickon and Bran, Sansa was the heir of Robb, in enemy hands. It can be argued that she was a more important hostage than Jaime, whom Tywin has already treated as if he was dead. Even Robb admitted that he should have made the trade.

2) Cat released Jaime BEFORE the Battle of Blackwater, when Stannis seemed to be in the best position to win the war. Cat probably thought that if Stannis takes KL, Cersei won't let Sansa or Arya live, so she had to make the trade before the battle happens.

3) Tyrion made a promise in front of open court that he will release the girls if they return Jaime. If Tyrion didn't keep this promise, it would signal to the realm that the Lannisters' words are completely worthless and they aren't 'paying back their debt'. 

 

In general, the problem with many of Cat's decisions is that because they happen in cliffhangers, the reasoning behind them isn't sufficiently explained and most people believe that the decision was primarily emotional. The main example is the Catnapping, where most people assume that Cat has taken Tyrion because she thought him guilty and wanted vengeance, even though she only acted after Tyrion recognized her and realized that she has came from south and undercover.

Edited June 13, 2023 by csuszka1948

[csuszka1948]

On 6/11/2023 at 8:58 AM, frenin said:

No, for all their faults, Tywin and Cersei knew how to work with Tyrion, even tho they despised.

Renly and Stannis were able to somewhat whereas Robert lived as he was the unquestionable patriarch of the family, but as soon the last dam broke they were completely unable to remember they were brothers and allowed decades of issues fester their common sense.

 

That's why i love the Baratheons, their pride truly know no bounds.

 

 

 

I don't think these 2 cases are the same.

Tywin, Tyrion and Cersei have all fought for a common goal - preserving the crown of Joffrey/Tommen - while Stannis and Renly fought for 2 different goals: putting themselves into the Throne.

The good comparison would be Cersei and Tyrion fighting for the inheritance of Casterly Rock after Tywin dies somewhere in the middle of ACOK or ASOS and I bet it would be bloody and would possibly allow enemies such as Robb Stark and Stannis to recover.

[csuszka1948]

On 6/8/2023 at 4:12 PM, Curled Finger said:

Cat taking Tyrion to the Vale to stand trial for the attack on Bran was a terrible idea all the way around.  Everyone paid for that one.  

 

I think the opposite: it was a large gamble, but overall a brilliant move without hindsight.

Even Tyrion - who knew himself to be innocent - thought it was a well-executed move from the part of Catelyn.

This post explains it well: 

 

I don't think we can fault Catelyn for assuming that Lysa - his sister - and LF - a childhood friend, loyal counsellor of the King who is in the presence of Varys - is telling the truth.

Actually, Littlefinger lying is probably a stupid gamble from his part, because if it was discovered that he lies about such an important issue (and this could easily happen - all that's needed is Ned showing the knife to Robert or arresting Tyrion as soon as he arrives to KL), his head would roll. He needed incredible plot armor to avoid Tyrion's revenge in ACOK.

[csuszka1948]

On 6/10/2023 at 1:59 AM, Alester Florent said:

Everything Cersei does.

 

I feel making Renly into her enemy (if it was done by her and not by Renly) is one of the worst offenders.

She knew that her children are bastards, that Stannis is the heir if this is discovered, and that the relationship of the Baratheon brothers is bad, but she still didn't try to befriend the ruler of the Stormlands.

On 6/10/2023 at 1:59 AM, Alester Florent said:

NED TURNING RENLY DOWN.

 

Would Renly's plan have succeeded though? I always have to question this. It could have easily ended with the heads of Renly, Ned and Loras in a pike or in prison. The person who would have benefited the most from such a scenario would be ironically Stannis.

His idea that the numerical superiority of the goldcloaks is needed to make a smooth transition was correct, his mistake was trusting LF after he explained to Ned why Stannis becoming King is horrible for him. 

On 6/10/2023 at 1:59 AM, Alester Florent said:

Cat makes a meal of a few things, although negotiating passage from Walder Frey wasn't one of them.

 

Cat usually makes smart moves with the (incomplete) information she has, but the plot is desperately against her. In contrast, when she gives smart advice which would result in advancing Robb's cause, nobody listens to her. 

I would say Cat is a reverse LF: LF makes huge gambles which almost always succeed, while Cat's gambles usually fail (ironically, her worst one, releasing Jaime, might turn out to be the best long-term).

On 6/10/2023 at 1:59 AM, Alester Florent said:

From a diplomatic perspective, the independence declarations by both the North and the Iron Islands were pretty disastrous. Robb at least has an excuse in that he was kind of bounced into it by his bannermen, but Balon actually planned that whole fustercluck.

 

I think Northern independence is problematic but can be actually maintained, it's the Riverlands part that is pretty disastrous.

[GZ Bloodraven]

35 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

I wouldn't call it a bad diplomatic moment, rather misjudging Cersei's personality - thinking that she loves her children more than she loves power. 

 

This is why I would call it a bad diplomatic moment. Ned was less intelligent than Cersei in this moment, and that's saying a lot. He thought that his word and the truth it carried was more powerful than the queen of the Seven Kingdoms, that he was in a strong enough position to offer mercy. It was a diplomatic moment in the sense that he was offering undue mercy to someone he didn't consider a threat, and it's what got him, his wife and his son killed. 

[Alester Florent]

5 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

Would Renly's plan have succeeded though? I always have to question this. It could have easily ended with the heads of Renly, Ned and Loras in a pike or in prison. The person who would have benefited the most from such a scenario would be ironically Stannis.

His idea that the numerical superiority of the goldcloaks is needed to make a smooth transition was correct, his mistake was trusting LF after he explained to Ned why Stannis becoming King is horrible for him.

We'll never know, but I think it has the strongest chance of success of any of the plans Ned is mooting (including LF's suggestion of letting Joffrey take the throne uncontested and ruling through him). A pre-emptive strike to eliminate Lannister guards in the Red Keep and seize Cersei's children while Ned still has the advantage of numbers and at least some semblance of the element of surprise is by far his best chance of securing control in the aftermath of Robert's death.

At the very least, if he can grab even one of Cersei's children that gives him bargaining power. While the plan might still fail in all its objectives, the most likely outcome is probably that it will partially succeed, and that's still a better position for Ned than the one he ends up in.

While it's still open to Cersei to bribe the Gold Cloaks (via Littlefinger), Renly's plan isn't initially reliant on them to execute, as the first phase - sweeping the castle and grabbing the kids - can be done with their own men. The Gold Cloaks will be needed in time, but neither LF nor Janos Slynt is suicidal and taking on the fait accompli of a Stark-Baratheon occupation of the Red Keep is a very different kettle of fish to the scenario which plays out, where Ned can't make his play against Cersei without the Gold Cloaks, because he doesn't have Renly's men and his own household is no longer sufficient for the purpose. LF (and Janos) are better off being able to present loyalty to the most powerful faction, which if the night-time phase of Renly's plan works, will be Ned and Renly.

Renly also knows Janos Slynt better than Ned. He's basically Janos's boss. They may not need LF to intercede with Janos if Renly is in play... and Renly will also know (better than Ned) that Janos can't really be relied upon.

The worst-case scenario is probably that, having grabbed Tommen and/or Myrcella but not Joffrey, the same thing plays out: Ned (and now Renly and Loras) arrive in the throne room to find Joff seated on the Iron Throne, and Joff, being what he is, decides he doesn't care if his siblings die and orders the arrest of the "traitors" anyway. This fight is likely to come down to the loyalty of the Gold Cloaks, but if Ned thinks he can pull off his coup without them there isn't actually any need for them to be there, and if they turn up when he hasn't asked for them that might be enough to tip Ned (or more likely Renly) off that something is wrong.

Really, in fact, Ned should have said yes to both Renly and Littlefinger, used their support to secure his position as regent, and then reveal the incest. Saying yes to LF doesn't mean he needs to actually follow through with the plan: he can agree to it in principle and then once he's got what he needs, bring Stannis back to the capital and play his hand. Instead he lets "honour" become "stupidity" and turns them both down, giving neither of them any incentive to support him, and failing even to recognise that's what he's done, if his disappointment at Renly's no-show is genuine.

It might all still have gone to pot, of course, but there's always an element of chance. If Ned had given himself the best chances of success but then had been blindsided by something out of the blue or simple bad luck, then I'd give him credit for trying. That's not what he did.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Alester Florent

[csuszka1948]

1 minute ago, Alester Florent said:

Really, in fact, Ned should have said yes to both Renly and Littlefinger, used their support to secure his position as regent, and then reveal the incest. Saying yes to LF doesn't mean he needs to actually follow through with the plan: he can agree to it in principle and then once he's got what he needs, bring Stannis back to the capital and play his hand. Instead he lets "honour" become "stupidity" and turns them both down, giving neither of them any incentive to support him, and failing even to recognise that's what he's done, if his disappointment at Renly's no-show is genuine.

 

 

Yes, I agree that this would have been the best play. Send a messenger to Stannis, telling him the truth and asking him to come with soldiers to KL as quickly as he can to secure his Throne and at the same time put the royal family under arrest with the help of Renly and LF and install himself as Regent until 'the heir comes of age' (in fact until Stannis arrives).

The look on LF's face would be priceless if he was overplayed by the honorable Ned Stark in such a way.

 I think he and Janos Slynt would be enraged since Stannis would quickly remove them (at the very least Janos Slynt) from their position, but Renly might view the situation as a net positive, since it makes him heir and gives an excuse to remove Cersei and her children from the Throne altogether.

 

That said, it's still possible that LF and the goldcloaks backstab Renly and Ned and side with Cersei, but even then, it likely results in a standoff, where time works on their favor (since Stannis - despite having much fewer troops - is the closest to the capital).

[frenin]

6 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

The good comparison would be Cersei and Tyrion fighting for the inheritance of Casterly Rock after Tywin dies somewhere in the middle of ACOK or ASOS and I bet it would be bloody and would possibly allow enemies such as Robb Stark and Stannis to recover.

Despite their differences Tyrion and Cersei are able to put aside their differences, if only minimally, and fight for a common goal, deal with their enemies first.

That's exactly the opposite of Stannis's and Renly's approach.

[Kierria]

Worst diplomatic moment in the series ?

 

The worst diplomatic moments conduct came from the young men.  Viserys loses his temper and makes threatening behavior in Vaes Dothrak.  Jon puts the NW in danger to rescue his sister from the Boltons.  Robb's execution of Lord Rickard Karstark was a terrible political move. 

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

7 minutes ago, Kierria said:

Worst diplomatic moment in the series ?

 

The worst diplomatic moments conduct came from the young men.  Viserys loses his temper and makes threatening behavior in Vaes Dothrak.  Jon puts the NW in danger to rescue his sister from the Boltons.  Robb's execution of Lord Rickard Karstark was a terrible political move. 

Agree with 2 of the 3.

Jon only wanted to March in the Boltons after Ramsay threatened to massacre the Night’s Watch. Jon was protecting the Night’s Watch.

[Tyrosh Lannister]

4 hours ago, King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd said:

Agree with 2 of the 3.

Jon only wanted to March in the Boltons after Ramsay threatened to massacre the Night’s Watch. Jon was protecting the Night’s Watch.

No he wanted to rescue his family - or at least that's what the watch thought 

[sifth]

32 minutes ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

No he wanted to rescue his family - or at least that's what the watch thought 

You mean the members who were hypocrites about the whole "staying neutral" thing, yet wanted to support Tywin. Good old Bowen "don't get too close to Stannis" Marsh.............."let's support Tywin instead". Possibly the biggest hypocrite in the series. Jon not replacing him with Sam, was his biggest mistake, IMO. Heck he should have given Grenn and Pype a promotion as well, for everything they did to defend The Wall, during Mance's assault.

[H Wadsworth Longfellow]

We should first agree on exactly what we mean by diplomacy.  Diplomacy occurs between officials conducting affairs of an organization, government, or some legal body.  Arya and Sansa cannot be guilty of bad diplomacy because they are not officials because the Starks no longer have the legal right to govern or carry out agreements.  Arya's rudeness to Lord Dayne was just that, rude behavior but is not a diplomatic mess up.  It might be better to look at a few chosen examples for discussion.

Catelyn and Walder were talking in their official capacities and therefore can be judged based on their conduct.  Walder was charmingly abrasive and his manners were lacking but can we accuse the old coot of bad diplomacy?  It wasn't bad diplomacy from the Freys that caused the problem.  It was Robb.  Catelyn played her part well and let the words from the old man slide off.  The diplomacy from both sides was fine.  The Stark son just let his sausage do the thinking and messed it up.  

Stannis and Renly.  I am for the restoration of the Targaryen, Daenerys to be exact, to rule over Westeros.  But let's look at the Stannis-Renly negotiations in its own compartment.  What could Stannis offer a younger brother who was meaning to take the throne from an older sibling?  Sweet words would not smooth this difference.  

King Viserys III, the Beggar King and his behavior in Vaes Dothrak.  KVIII was not the idiot that Robert slandered him.  KVIII received the finest of tutoring called real world experience.  He managed to keep himself and his vulnerable little sister alive through the harsh world of the east.  His problem was emotional not intellectual.  He chose to ignore the Dothraki customs and didn't make any effort to learn their language.  That was bad diplomacy beneath the mother of mountains.  It's bad to engage in negotiations without knowing the other party and he paid with his life.

Robb Stark and Walder Frey.  It was already discussed by many before my comments.  Robb blew that one big time. 

Jon also blew the conflict with Janos out of proportions.  The difference between the two could and should have been handled better.  The responsibility falls on Jon because he was the commander. 

Ser Barristan and the Green Grace.  That was interesting.  Both seniors acquitted themselves capably.  I want to see what happens between them in the future. 

Tyrion and the Sellswords.  Tyrion gave away the House.  I suppose it's effective to promise something you don't have.  He got something out of it while not giving up anything up front.  Walder should have done it like this.  I can't be sure this is diplomacy but Tyrion was good.