How deep was Renly already in with the Tyrells?

[Alester Florent]

43 minutes ago, Darth Sidious said:

The Tyrells are Targaryen loyalists. Which means they did not start plotting until after the death of Aerys. 

...

...

Well, you're not wrong.

[The hairy bear]

14 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I don't think anyone has to put it in Renly's head that Margaery and Lyanna look alike. Because they clearly don't. I think Renly just thinks that:

• Lyanna and Margaery were objectively beautiful brunettes and that, therefore, they must look alike.
• Robert is still in love with Lyanna and doesn't get along with Cersei so, therefore, Robert prefers brunettes over blondes

Why couldn't Margaery and Lyanna share some resemblance? Of course Ned didn't think that anyone looked like his dear long-lost sister, but for an external viewer, why not?

It's not only that they were both brown-haired. They also share other characteristics such as the slender figure, the pale skin, and the age: Margaery is 15, and Lyanna was just as old the last time Robert saw her.

I think that last one is particularly significant. Besides Lyanna and Margaery, we are also told that the whore who gave birth to Barra was 15, and there are hints that Mya Stone's mother and Delena Florent may have been similarly young when Robert left them pregnant. I suspect (and maybe Renly guessed that too) that Robert had a fetish for fifteen year old girls. (Robert's 15 may be DiCaprio's 25).

Edited July 21, 2023 by The hairy bear

[astarkchoice]

4 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

The Tyrells are Targaryen loyalists. Which means they did not start plotting until after the death of Aerys. 

This

Their control of the reach was handed to them by the tryells thus its awkward for them to be anything but, itd be like an anti stark manderly

[SeanF]

2 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

This

Their control of the reach was handed to them by the tryells thus its awkward for them to be anything but, itd be like an anti stark manderly

I think the Tyrells will be natural allies to Daenerys when she arrives, because they'll be driven from the capital by Aegon and the Dornish.  Especially if Aegon executes people like Mace and Margaery.

[astarkchoice]

1 minute ago, SeanF said:

I think the Tyrells will be natural allies to Daenerys when she arrives, because they'll be driven from the capital by Aegon and the Dornish.  Especially if Aegon executes people like Mace and Margaery.

If i recall a good part of their army was there with randyl tarly hence why the high sparrow suddeny allowed margery to be  released under his supervision. Then you have the ironborn bearing down on oldtown , loras storming dragomstone( the injury i think is fake,)and their upcomming siege of the florent keep  to create a new powerful tyrell cadet branch!  

 

Given all the shit going down i honestly think hilariously that margery may be married (again ) to aegon!

[Sandy Clegg]

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

Given all the shit going down i honestly think hilariously that margery may be married (again ) to aegon!

I'm willing to die on this hill. Margaery marrying Aegon is just too irresistible as a plot point, but also - her character marrying 3 kings in such a short time would be just hilarious. She'll need to use all her charm and wiles to pull that off without seeming like the ultimate bandwagon jumper. Can't wait to see the weaselling in full effect if it happens.

[astarkchoice]

39 minutes ago, Sandy Clegg said:

I'm willing to die on this hill. Margaery marrying Aegon is just too irresistible as a plot point, but also - her character marrying 3 kings in such a short time would be just hilarious. She'll need to use all her charm and wiles to pull that off without seeming like the ultimate bandwagon jumper. Can't wait to see the weaselling in full effect if it happens.

By the  time the final books written shel have been married again..collecting rings with fancy   stones like shes  thanos

[Alester Florent]

1 hour ago, Sandy Clegg said:

I'm willing to die on this hill. Margaery marrying Aegon is just too irresistible as a plot point, but also - her character marrying 3 kings in such a short time would be just hilarious. She'll need to use all her charm and wiles to pull that off without seeming like the ultimate bandwagon jumper. Can't wait to see the weaselling in full effect if it happens.

Four kings! Renly, Joffrey, Tommen and then Aegon. And possibly none of them consummated either.

[astarkchoice]

5 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Four kings! Renly, Joffrey, Tommen and then Aegon. And possibly none of them consummated either.

Dunno man young griff has that hot ex septa there and his crew are supposed to be guiding/imstructing him in ....all matters

[frenin]

On 7/20/2023 at 6:34 PM, BlackLightning said:

Robert is not surrounded by Baratheon swords; he's surrounded by Lannister swords...

He's surrounded by Vale and Baratheon swords actually.

 

On 7/20/2023 at 6:34 PM, BlackLightning said:

If Jaime could kill one king, what's one more?

He certainly would love to, it's difficult he could, especially in the event it was public Robert would set Cersei aside, provisions against Jaime would be made.

 

On 7/20/2023 at 6:34 PM, BlackLightning said:

Jaime WILL kill him.

Will certainly try to.

 

23 hours ago, SeanF said:

Cersei won’t become a septa, and unless her incest with her brother is revealed, murder is the only way of ending the marriage.

It's not up to Cersei honestly, people give the Lannisters far too much sway, i blame the show for that.

The only thing that'd matter to Renly if whether Robert could feasibly have overwhelming power to see his wish done,  nothing points to the contrary ergo...

 

17 hours ago, SeanF said:

No one would mourn Joffrey or Cersei and he’d kill Tommen and Myrcella to be on the safe side.

I don't think Renly has any intention of killing the children throughout the first book.

He wants Cersei gone, the children.... eh.

 

17 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

the reality is that there are more Lannister soldiers in King's Landing than there are Baratheon soldiers and that they'd be under the command of Cersei and Jaime.

We're never told that, it's a perception that little by little became fact.

There's also the actual fact that Robert can rely on the Goldcloaks, which overwhlem every force within the city.

 

 

 

[James Arryn]

The Marg thing, imo, again had more to do with models. Ie, the two principal models for Robert were Edward IV (especially younger) and Henry VI (especially older) and I think the Marg thing was a) actually realistic because of Robert’s character…sure, a long shot, but one with virtually no cost if it fails…and b) an allusion to Anne Boleyn, either as a false lead in the minds of readers or one of those garden paths than end up going nowhere. 
 

I don’t get the criticism of this, btw, beyond it being Renly. If it succeeds Renly achieves basically all his principal wants. If it doesn’t it’s a nothing-burger. Again, it’s Renly demonstrating an advanced understanding of Sun Tzu’s military ideal; to win the battle/war without fighting. 

Edited July 22, 2023 by James Arryn

[James Arryn]

On 7/21/2023 at 3:47 AM, astarkchoice said:

This

Their control of the reach was handed to them by the tryells thus its awkward for them to be anything but, itd be like an anti stark manderly

While I agree that the Tyrells are ~ Targ loyalists and do feel a debt, the Tullys were likewise raised up, arguably with even less of a resume, and that didn’t keep Hoster faithful. So it’s not a reliable factor, even if it can hold true for people like the current Manderlys or Tyrells we have seen. But we don’t see that much of either beyond the surface, I doubt a deeper exploration of either house would find them monochromatically loyal anymore than most houses. 

[Craving Peaches]

38 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

I don’t get the criticism of this, btw, beyond it being Renly.

Bet if Stannis did it, it would be considered a genius move and prove Stannis was the top political mind in Westeros. Just like how withstanding a siege in the 'un-siegeable' castle, a naval victory and successful surprise attack on stone-age refugee camp makes him the greatest general in the series.

Edited July 22, 2023 by Craving Peaches

[James Arryn]

21 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Bet if Stannis did it, it would be considered a genius move and prove Stannis was the top political mind in Westeros. Just like how one withstanding a siege in the 'un-siegeable' castle, a naval victory and successful surprise attack on stone-age refugee camp makes him the greatest general in the series.

Yeah, though the bigger sin is not not being Stannis, but rather an obstacle to his achieving what Justice, Truth and Good Dental Insurance obviously intended, undisputed King. Other characters are ~ forgiven for not being Stannis, but almost none are forgiven for being attacked/killed by Stannis. 
 

That said, and agreeing that Stannis’ individual military achievements are overblown, (and his mistakes either hand-waved (BW) or not unreasonably said to be secondary to his magic-based plan (SE)) on the whole he is one of the better commanders we see in the series. Nothing remarkable yet, Ice might be that coming, but almost uniquely he has credibility as a commander on land and at sea, that’s definitely something. 
 

What really gets me in terms of his eval is any belief that there was any military viability to his attack on SE/the coming battle with Renly. If you believe it was a pretext for supernatural assassination, okay…not great about Stannis the person, and imo a hell of a gamble on the unknown, but you can argue that if Stannis needs to be king, he’s going to have to pull something out of his hat to prevent the inevitability of King Renly/Queen Marg. But arguing that and at the same time trying to say Renly’s death just prevented an Agincourt imo demonstrates nothing but someone really, really wanting that to be true. The situation has almost nothing in common with the earlier HYW English victories except numerical disparity, crucially contradicts same in so many ways, not least of which is the quality of troops and need to fight a battle on two fronts which compounds the numerical disparity, and this belief that all of that won’t matter because Stannis.

That’s what gets me. It would have been a complete route. There’s just no reasonable way of arguing otherwise consistent with military realities beyond the always applicable truism that nothing is ever 100% certain in war. And to base any expectation on the single argument that it’s not technically impossible is, I mean, I guess if you want it to be true bad enough you take what you can get. Even absent all the reasons it was not Crecy et al, the point about those battles being big deals was the degree to which they were the exception. This had all the reasons it was highly improbable and none of the reasons it became the exception. 

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, James Arryn said:

While I agree that the Tyrells are ~ Targ loyalists and do feel a debt, the Tullys were likewise raised up, arguably with even less of a resume, and that didn’t keep Hoster faithful. So it’s not a reliable factor, even if it can hold true for people like the current Manderlys or Tyrells we have seen. But we don’t see that much of either beyond the surface, I doubt a deeper exploration of either house would find them monochromatically loyal anymore than most houses. 

True 

Beinf raised up has gotta be be a big factor though but itl depend on the current lord of that house

The tyrells by that stage hadnt managed to secure the web of marriages they have now to utterly control the reach which is a beast of a region to be under one house.

Edited July 22, 2023 by astarkchoice

[BlackLightning]

On 7/21/2023 at 2:59 AM, astarkchoice said:

Given all the shit going down i honestly think hilariously that margery may be married (again ) to aegon!

Nah, I don't think that will happen

Even if Margaery manages to survive Cersei's trial (and its almost inevitable fallout), I think King's Landing is going to be in for yet another brutal sacking when Aegon, the GC and the Dornish arrive...and when I say brutal, what I mean is that I think that -- somehow, someway -- the wildfire caches will finally blow. Off-topic I know but I think the sacking that we got in "the Bells" is what will be a part of the ending of Winds

That way we'll go into the final book with Aegon and friends struggling to rule and defend the 7K from a capital city that they basically obliterated...and I'm not convinced that Aegon will be some unifying force that the people can get behind.

On 7/22/2023 at 12:36 PM, James Arryn said:

While I agree that the Tyrells are ~ Targ loyalists and do feel a debt, the Tullys were likewise raised up, arguably with even less of a resume, and that didn’t keep Hoster faithful. So it’s not a reliable factor, even if it can hold true for people like the current Manderlys or Tyrells we have seen. But we don’t see that much of either beyond the surface, I doubt a deeper exploration of either house would find them monochromatically loyal anymore than most houses. 

House Tully actually had a lot more of a resume than House Tyrell.

The Tullys were kings: petty kings as they only ever ruled over their lands but kings nonetheless. The Tyrells were never kings; they were just stewards. The Tullys also rose in rebellion against the Hoares and the ironmen...big difference between that and waving a white flag once the Conqueror comes within five miles of the castle of your now-dead king and princes. 

Basically, the Tyrells were the equivalent of the Pooles, stewards of House Stark.

[Craving Peaches]

27 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

that I think that -- somehow, someway -- the wildfire caches will finally blow.

I think Jon Con might have something to do with that...

[James Arryn]

4 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Nah, I don't think that will happen

Even if Margaery manages to survive Cersei's trial (and its almost inevitable fallout), I think King's Landing is going to be in for yet another brutal sacking when Aegon, the GC and the Dornish arrive...and when I say brutal, what I mean is that I think that -- somehow, someway -- the wildfire caches will finally blow. Off-topic I know but I think the sacking that we got in "the Bells" is what will be a part of the ending of Winds

That way we'll go into the final book with Aegon and friends struggling to rule and defend the 7K from a capital city that they basically obliterated...and I'm not convinced that Aegon will be some unifying force that the people can get behind.

House Tully actually had a lot more of a resume than House Tyrell.

The Tullys were kings: petty kings as they only ever ruled over their lands but kings nonetheless. The Tyrells were never kings; they were just stewards. The Tullys also rose in rebellion against the Hoares and the ironmen...big difference between that and waving a white flag once the Conqueror comes within five miles of the castle of your now-dead king and princes. 

Basically, the Tyrells were the equivalent of the Pooles, stewards of House Stark.

1) The Tullys were never kings, petty or otherwise. They were always subject to other petty kings. 
 

2) The Tyrells, conversely, had at times run the entire Reach. They also reconquered Highgarden from a usurper and put another Gardener line back on the throne. But most vividly, the Tyrells/Reach are more or less George’s medieval France, and the repeated pattern in France was for an ancient ruling line to eventually see another line (Karlings/Carolingians with Merovingians, Robertian/Capet with Carolingians) establish more or less hereditary occupation of ~ stewards of the kingdom (Mayors, etc.) until eventually supplanting them on the throne itself in a relatively peaceful way.  

Edited July 24, 2023 by James Arryn

[BlackLightning]

40 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

1) The Tullys were never kings, petty or otherwise. They were always subject to other petty kings. 
 

2) The Tyrells, conversely, had at times run the entire Reach. They also reconquered Highgarden from a usurper and put another Gardener line back on the throne

I stand corrected; I just rechecked the wiki. I must've misunderstood

I didn't know that the Tyrells had led the charge