Would Red Wedding still have gone ahead without Jeyne Marriage?

[James Arryn]

The decisive moment for Lannister hopes did not happen at the BW, but in a pavilion outside Storm’s End (or more accurately wherever he was when he decided that murdering his brother was the plan) with one man deciding that his getting to be the one who beats them is worth risking/reducing the ability to beat them itself. The BW is just further evidence that he was wrong.
 

Among the kajillion issues, if the Lannisters are the enemy and this isn’t just about who gets power, why not Shadowbaby Tywin or Joff? Because beating the Lannisters was secondary. So crediting the guy who makes the decision to make that a secondary consideration as being ~ Freedom’s Last Hope is imo faulty in the extreme. I get that from Robb’s pov, which is what people are arguing here, the BW was definitely more bad news, but let’s not lose focus on whose decision it was that everything rested on the BW in the first place. 

Edited July 26, 2023 by James Arryn

[frenin]

21 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Wait so which is it?

Abandoning Robb doesn't mean betraying him bloody and murdering him on their table.

[Alester Florent]

On 7/26/2023 at 8:27 AM, SaffronLady said:

It is threads like these that make me wonder what was Robb thinking when he accepted the Greatjon's hail of the King in the North. And why he barely engaged in diplomacy with the Reach - well, maybe something about Renly dying when his mother was dispatched to the Summer King, but he could have tried other Houses in the Reach besides the Tyrells. The Peakes, perhaps, since they are so rebellious already.

Are the Peakes still around?

But you're right about the Reach in general. With Renly dead and the Reach back in play, seeking an alliance even with the Tyrells, or failing that the Tarlys, Rowans, Hightowers, etc. would have been sensible. I guess that the fly in the ointment is that Cat is a suspect in Renly's murder and her behaviour in the aftermath (doing a runner with the other prime suspect) only added to the suspicion.

The smart thing to do politically would be to pin the murder on Brienne, Loras kills her immediately, and then she can reopen negotiations. But that's obviously not the right thing to do and I don't blame Cat for not doing it. Perhaps a better move than running away would have been to stand her ground and try to explain that Renly was murdered by Stannis - when she and/or Brienne actually get a chance to explain to Jaime, even to Loras, they are believed - but there's a difference I guess between trying to explain in the heat of the moment when Loras is so emotional he kills two of his innocent friends merely for letting them get away, and a year or two later when he's still angry but his initial grief and rage has simmered down.

If Cat had been anywhere other than in Renly's tent when he was killed, I think she would have had a reasonable chance of bringing at least the Reach lords over to Robb's side pretty quickly. Religion might be a sticking-point for a couple of them in terms of actually joining Robb's kingdom, but at the very least a tactical alliance would make sense.

As a bonus, who is it that the Iron Throne sends to negotiate with the Tyrells to bring them to Joffrey's side? Littlefinger. If he and Cat find themselves openly on opposite sides of a bidding war for the Tyrells' services, what are the chances he fulfils his brief honestly rather than switching sides to win favour with the "love of his life" (and no doubt retaining his position in Harrenhal as a perk for doing so)?

[astarkchoice]

20 hours ago, James Arryn said:

The decisive moment for Lannister hopes did not happen at the BW, but in a pavilion outside Storm’s End (or more accurately wherever he was when he decided that murdering his brother was the plan) with one man deciding that his getting to be the one who beats them is worth risking/reducing the ability to beat them itself. The BW is just further evidence that he was wrong.
 

Among the kajillion issues, if the Lannisters are the enemy and this isn’t just about who gets power, why not Shadowbaby Tywin or Joff? Because beating the Lannisters was secondary. So crediting the guy who makes the decision to make that a secondary consideration as being ~ Freedom’s Last Hope is imo faulty in the extreme. I get that from Robb’s pov, which is what people are arguing here, the BW was definitely more bad news, but let’s not lose focus on whose decision it was that everything rested on the BW in the first place. 

To be fair to stannis i think the shadowbaby stuff seems to havev a proximity max limit hence needing davos to get mel into the bowels of of stormsend

 

That said its a very stupid ex machina on reflection! If the fire priestess is so scared of the others then she should be at the wall (where her powers are greater) letting nights watch brothers run a train on her!!! Wights are utter bitches compared to steel puncturing shadows so make a goddamn battalion of them!!!!

[SaffronLady]

17 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

That said its a very stupid ex machina on reflection! If the fire priestess is so scared of the others then she should be at the wall (where her powers are greater) letting nights watch brothers run a train on her!!! Wights are utter bitches compared to steel puncturing shadows so make a goddamn battalion of them!!!!

Maybe deploying a thousand shadow babies isn't possible for one shadow bender no matter how much "fire" she could harvest. She wouldn't have needed a king to be Azor Ahai if the Red Priestess could just pull that off.

[astarkchoice]

40 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

Maybe deploying a thousand shadow babies isn't possible for one shadow bender no matter how much "fire" she could harvest. She wouldn't have needed a king to be Azor Ahai if the Red Priestess could just pull that off.

Well its lonely for the guys at the wall..she could give it the old team try!!

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

5 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Well its lonely for the guys at the wall..she could give it the old team try!!

she can probably only give brith to one baby at a time, so would take a few years, and imguessing because they are not kings, their either not strong enough to produce shadow babies, or the act would be a one for one life sacrifice, and how likely are each member of the watch to sacrifice their lives for one night when their is moles town. also they're supposed to bear no children so...

Edited July 27, 2023 by Targaryeninkingslanding

[astarkchoice]

51 minutes ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

she can probably only give brith to one baby at a time, so would take a few years, and imguessing because they are not kings, their either not strong enough to produce shadow babies, or the act would be a one for one life sacrifice, and how likely are each member of the watch to sacrifice their lives for one night when their is moles town. also they're supposed to bear no children so...

Well shes probably hotter than 99% of the mole town hoes. If she doesnt tell the unlucky brother (def her style)  she could maybe make one that kills a few white walkers

[Alester Florent]

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

Well shes probably hotter than 99% of the mole town hoes. If she doesnt tell the unlucky brother (def her style)  she could maybe make one that kills a few white walkers

Draining NW men of life to create shadowbabies to kill wights seems like a highly inefficient use of resources even if they can be produced near-instantaneously (it appears the gestation period is probably not that long, since she was able to produce two in a matter of days to kill Renly and then Ser Cortnay.) It'd surely be better to cut out the middle (wo)man and have the NW brothers kill the wights themselves.

Using them to kill Others - if they are capable of doing so, which is not guaranteed - might be more worthwhile but we don't actually know how many Others there are, and that's before we get into the other problems: she apparently has get eyes on her target, and presumably where they are, neither of which is the case for many, if any, Others. And the shadowbabies probably can't cross the Wall either, so she'd need to go north of the Wall to birth them.

Overall, they are best used to eliminate specific, localised, high-value targets. We may query her choice of target in the books (why Renly not Tywin, was Ser Cortnay really that high-value?) but her approach seems broadly correct even if some of her (or rather, Stannis's) decisions are a bit wonky.

[Bendric Dayne]

Yeah I don't think the RW happens if Robb doesn't marry Jeyne. I think Walder is too much of a coward to openly betray Robb without cause. Regardless of him marrying Jeyne, I think he ultimately lost the war at the BW as many people here have said. Thing is, he did everything right, only Edmure messed up his plans. If he successfully lures Tywin to the Westerlands, Tywin can't make it back in time to the BW and Stannis takes KL. If Robb's plan worked he would have made Tywin look like a fool. By then, losing the Freys is not as big a deal. Tywin can remain west or try and assault KL or the Riverlands. So all Robb has to do is make sure his forces in the Riverlands remain behind castle walls which would force Tywin to siege the castles which would be incredibly difficult. Meanwhile, he negotiates with Stannis for the return of Sansa, which likely means Robb gives up his crown and remains warden of the north, but at this point it essentially ends the war so I think no one would complain. Besides Stannis isn't his enemy so there is no reason to fight him. If Tywin stays west, Robb and Stannis likely join forces to take the Westerlands and either force Tywin to surrender or leave him rotting in Casterly Rock as they take every other castle, meaning Tywin loses his power since he can't even protect his own people. In this scenario, Robb loses the Freys, but Roose likely doesn't plot to take Winterfell since the war is essentially over and they're all going back North soon anyways. Any ironborn or other rebellious force (Ramsay if he somehow does take a few castles) would just be a nuisance for the returning army to dispose of with relative ease. If Ramsay doesn't do anything then the few forces that stayed up north, take care of the ironborn. So there was a lot that was out of Robb hands that made him lose, but if his plan to lure Tywin west would have worked, he still ends up winning in my opinion, even after marrying Jeyne and losing the Freys. 

[SaffronLady]

1 hour ago, Bendric Dayne said:

Meanwhile, he negotiates with Stannis for the return of Sansa, which likely means Robb gives up his crown and remains warden of the north, but at this point it essentially ends the war so I think no one would complain. Besides Stannis isn't his enemy so there is no reason to fight him.

Now, someone convince Stannis not to punish Robb for once claiming to be a king just in case it becomes a 3-way battle royale because Stannis is trying to be "the Mannis" again.

[kissdbyfire]

On 7/25/2023 at 3:28 PM, Craving Peaches said:

Was it this insult that pushed Walder over the edge or was it more to do with the fact that Robb's position was looking un-winnable, with having to retake the North and defend the Riverlands in the face of the much larger Lannister-Tyrell army?

I think if not the RW, Tywin would have found another way to get rid of Robb. That said, if all else remains the same except for Robb marrying Jeyne, I think there'd be a fairly good chance of the RW (or something similar) happening anyway, under some other pretense. 

 

On 7/25/2023 at 3:28 PM, Craving Peaches said:

Would Walder have gone ahead with the plan if Tywin offered, even if Robb was the one marrying a Frey?

I think he could and possibly would have gone w/ any type of treacherous plot Tywin came up with if he thought it would be advantageous to him. 

[Castellan]

I wonder how much of the Red Wedding was Walder and how much was Tywin? I don't think it would have happened without Tywin's at least not opposing it. It is a bit reminiscent of the fate of the Reynes. Remember when Tywin can only say 'they have my son" after the defeat at Riverrun? And there was no way it was going to happen while Jaime was a prisoner, but as soon as Bolton sent word he was found, it happened.

[Bendric Dayne]

On 7/29/2023 at 4:56 PM, SaffronLady said:

Now, someone convince Stannis not to punish Robb for once claiming to be a king just in case it becomes a 3-way battle royale because Stannis is trying to be "the Mannis" again.

It's a good point. We know how rigid Stannis is. Is he so rigid that he would fight Robb until he kills him because he called himself king? Possibly. However, Stannis does try to legitimize Jon Snow because it is convenient for him. I think if Robb agrees to being reduced to warden of the north, essentially ending the war, then that would be too convenient for Stannis not to agree. But it's definitely not a given. 

[astarkchoice]

21 hours ago, Castellan said:

I wonder how much of the Red Wedding was Walder and how much was Tywin? I don't think it would have happened without Tywin's at least not opposing it. It is a bit reminiscent of the fate of the Reynes. Remember when Tywin can only say 'they have my son" after the defeat at Riverrun? And there was no way it was going to happen while Jaime was a prisoner, but as soon as Bolton sent word he was found, it happened.

Walder clearly reached out to tywin through tywins sister (married to a frey) and then to roose in nearby harrenhall. Tywin will get his victory but walder ensures his family are utterly wedded (literaly) to the new regime to ensure the next gen of lannister ,tyrell and freys are all loosely  family!

Roose either orders ramsay to do what he does outside winterfell OR once ramsay reports back what he did rooses mind is made up and he begins thinning northern resistance.

As for the actual planning of the finer details and the actual logistics/ tactics of the ambush  we hear this is roose , lame lothar frey and the seemingly simple ryman frey.

Edited July 30, 2023 by astarkchoice

[James Arryn]

On 7/29/2023 at 4:56 PM, SaffronLady said:

Now, someone convince Stannis not to punish Robb for once claiming to be a king just in case it becomes a 3-way battle royale because Stannis is trying to be "the Mannis" again.

Stannis has already judged Robb guilty and sentenced him to death. Remember the leeches? 

[Craving Peaches]

1 minute ago, James Arryn said:

Stannis has already judged Robb guilty and sentenced him to death. Remember the leeches? 

Ah yes but you see he hesitated for 0.1 seconds before chucking that leech on the fire so obviously Stannis could easily be persuaded to forgive Robb, as we all know Stannis is totally reasonable about that sort of thing and the most merciful man in Westeros to boot.

[James Arryn]

Just now, Craving Peaches said:

Ah yes but you see he hesitated for 0.1 seconds before chucking that leech on the fire so obviously Stannis could easily be persuaded to forgive Robb, as we all know Stannis is totally reasonable about that sort of thing and the most merciful man in Westeros to boot.

I’m feeling a ‘forgive but not forget’ non-distinct distinction heading our way. 

[Craving Peaches]

3 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

I’m feeling a ‘forgive but not forget’ non-distinct distinction heading our way. 

What I don't get is, how can Stannis get annoyed about Robb when Stannis had not announced his intentions to Robb? He is essentially getting annoyed that Robb didn't know about the incest and then magically work out that he Stannis believed in the incest and then through his psychic foreknowledge declare for Stannis at a time when Stannis had been silent for a year (same goes for Renly). Did he expect Robb (and Renly) would just sit around until Stannis moved his royal backside off Dragonstone?

[James Arryn]

7 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

What I don't get is, how can Stannis get annoyed about Robb when Stannis had not announced his intentions to Robb? He is essentially getting annoyed that Robb didn't know about the incest and then magically work out that he Stannis believed in the incest and then through his psychic foreknowledge declare for Stannis at a time when Stannis had been silent for a year (same goes for Renly). Did he expect Robb (and Renly) would just sit around until Stannis moved his royal backside off Dragonstone?

Other people’s opinions don’t have agency in Stannis’ mind, for the most part. They either accord with his will/destiny, no matter how irrational or unreasonable it would be to expect that in the circumstances, or they are obstacles to be destroyed like anyone else. He literally greets Cat by whinging about how wrong it was for Ned…just recently dead Ned, mind…to have been Robert’s Hand instead of him. Presumably he’d have given a similar benediction at Jon Arryn’s funeral if he’d stuck around. There’s just nothing in his mental geography that remotely competes with what he thinks Stannis Baratheon is owed.

Edited July 31, 2023 by James Arryn