What if King Joffrey is killed in the King's Landing riot?

[Angel Eyes]

So in ACOK, a riot breaks out in King's Landing the day Princess Myrcella is sent to Dorne after Prince Joffrey starts shouting for someone who threw dung at him. We all know the story, etc. But what would be the series of events if, to give an example, one of the rioters throws a stone at Joffrey and it sinks into his head Goliath-style, killing him? Everything else happens as if canon: The Hound rescues Sansa, the High Septon, Ser Preston, Ser Aron are killed, Tyrek is missing, Lady Lollys is raped, etc.

Now what? Tommen has to be crowned, there's a couple armies (the Tyrells who are responsible for the food shortage though they might be headed home after Renly's assassination, Stannis Baratheon) bearing down on the capitol, Lord Tywin is preoccupied with Robb Stark in the Riverlands and Westerlands north of the capitol. Alliances, hostage exchanges are on the table.

[sifth]

I imagine events would play out more or less the same only the Tyrells would wed Margaery to Tommen. They probably wont kill Tommen, since he kind and easy to control, so no purple wedding.

[James Steller]

2 hours ago, sifth said:

I imagine events would play out more or less the same only the Tyrells would wed Margaery to Tommen. They probably wont kill Tommen, since he kind and easy to control, so no purple wedding.

That in itself changes a lot. No death of Joffrey at the wedding, Tyrion isn’t put on trial, Oberyn isn’t killed in a trial by combat, Tywin isn’t shot by Tyrion… though to be fair, Oberyn might very well have poisoned Tywin, but then that changes things too.

[Arthur Peres]

2 hours ago, James Steller said:

That in itself changes a lot. No death of Joffrey at the wedding, Tyrion isn’t put on trial, Oberyn isn’t killed in a trial by combat, Tywin isn’t shot by Tyrion… though to be fair, Oberyn might very well have poisoned Tywin, but then that changes things too.

Not just that, it could change the whole war.

If Joffrey is killed by a mob, what does that tell the Tyrells about the strenght of the Lannisters when they cannot even protect their king from a bunch of hungry peasants?

With KL starving and Cersei in charge sending threats to the smallfolk, that would also show that the lions are not untocheables, KL could rebel against the Lannisters as whole, there were people calling for Stannis and Robb after all.

[Alester Florent]

The death of Joffrey opens the door a crack to negotiations with Robb. There are still major issues to overcome, but the really insuperable one was Joffrey himself, both because he himself was totally opposed to peace (especially under Cersei's influence), and because he was directly responsible for Ned's death. With him off the table, a shrewd statesman like Tyrion or Tywin might be able to make some headway in seeking a peace deal.

[James Steller]

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

The death of Joffrey opens the door a crack to negotiations with Robb. There are still major issues to overcome, but the really insuperable one was Joffrey himself, both because he himself was totally opposed to peace (especially under Cersei's influence), and because he was directly responsible for Ned's death. With him off the table, a shrewd statesman like Tyrion or Tywin might be able to make some headway in seeking a peace deal.

I don’t think Tywin would have done it. He’d stolen Ice and melted it down for himself. The Starks will never forget that. I think Tywin knew that Robb would be too proud to negotiate a peace, so he cooked up a scheme to wipe out the Starks so that he could finally have his Valyrian steel swords.

[The hairy bear]

I think the outcome of this scenario would depend a lot on the reaction to Joffrey's murder of Cersei and Tywin.

•  One imagines that Cerseicshe would push for a brutal and disproportionate response directed, more or less, to the general population of King's Landing. Depending of how much she is able impose her will, that could easily lead to much more anti-Lannister opposition within the city.
• When Joffrey died, Tywin was about to leave Harrenhal and move West to face Edmure at the Red Fork. On the event of Joffrey's death, he may decide that he is needed in King's Landing to control the clearly inept Cersei and Tyrion, and attend the coronation. That changes everything: no battles of the Red Fork, possibly no battle of the Blackwater,...

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

A bigger what if is if the rock hit Tyrion and killed him. 

And in my opinion, without Tyrion, Stannis takes King's Landing before Tywin even shows up. Now, here is the question. How does that play out? Let's just say Joffrey dies in the taking of King's Landing and Stannis holds Cersei prisoner. Tywin gets there with the Tyrells, but Stannis has already done something to protect the city against a second invasion. Tywin has no idea where Tommen is by the way. In fact, since Tyrion is dead, ...is Tommen even removed from the city (didn't Cersei try to get Tommen away partially because of Tyrion?). If Tommen is there too, then that would actually make Myrcella the rightful Queen (from the Lannister perspective) which...would also essentially break the Tyrell alliance, so do the Tyrells...even stay at this point? Or do they just take off? Man, I've gone down a very weird road. What does Dorne do at this point, while holding Myrcella? Quickly marry her to Trystane? I could see this certainly breaking the Lannisters alliance with the Tyrells. Tyrells take off, Stannis still holds King's Landing, with Tywin's army camped outside King's Landing. Cersei is a prisoner, and Myrcella has been declared Queen in Dorne with a Dornish King Consort. Robb could probably sue for peace with Stannis in this situation somehow. 

[Angel Eyes]

17 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

A bigger what if is if the rock hit Tyrion and killed him. 

And in my opinion, without Tyrion, Stannis takes King's Landing before Tywin even shows up. Now, here is the question. How does that play out? Let's just say Joffrey dies in the taking of King's Landing and Stannis holds Cersei prisoner. Tywin gets there with the Tyrells, but Stannis has already done something to protect the city against a second invasion. Tywin has no idea where Tommen is by the way. In fact, since Tyrion is dead, ...is Tommen even removed from the city (didn't Cersei try to get Tommen away partially because of Tyrion?). If Tommen is there too, then that would actually make Myrcella the rightful Queen (from the Lannister perspective) which...would also essentially break the Tyrell alliance, so do the Tyrells...even stay at this point? Or do they just take off? Man, I've gone down a very weird road. What does Dorne do at this point, while holding Myrcella? Quickly marry her to Trystane? I could see this certainly breaking the Lannisters alliance with the Tyrells. Tyrells take off, Stannis still holds King's Landing, with Tywin's army camped outside King's Landing. Cersei is a prisoner, and Myrcella has been declared Queen in Dorne with a Dornish King Consort. Robb could probably sue for peace with Stannis in this situation somehow. 

Is Myrcella in the line of succession? And would Robb's bannermen allow him to sue for peace?

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

2 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Is Myrcella in the line of succession? And would Robb's bannermen allow him to sue for peace?

If she isn't in the line of succession, then Stannis is just the rightful King (from everyone's perspective). Stannis declares war on Tywin most likely, and I think Tywin's non-westerland allies might dry up real quick. Robb could at least try an alliance with Stannis to take down Tywin (not that that would be hard if it is...only Tywin's army vs. like...all of the Stormlands, Riverlands, and the North. 

I actually think Robb could sue for peace (with bannermen's support) though, as the bannermen were upset about having peace with the Lannisters..not Stannis. I think Robb could convince them. Especially if that peace with Stannis came with the added bonus of invading the Westerlands and destroying Lannisport or something. 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Lord of Raventree Hall