Your Most Hated ASOIAF theory

[sifth]

8 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

LF has killed Dontos, so no leads there. She knows a negative - but torturers won't be content with that. Note Cercei getting Qyburn to extract false confessions.

So what would LF have done if Sansa forgot to wear her hairnet that day? In fact why even put the poison in the hairnet to begin with? I doubt anyone was frisking Olenna, the day of Joff's wedding. Such a weird plan, when you really think about it.

[House Cambodia]

15 minutes ago, sifth said:

So what would LF have done if Sansa forgot to wear her hairnet that day? In fact why even put the poison in the hairnet to begin with? I doubt anyone was frisking Olenna, the day of Joff's wedding. Such a weird plan, when you really think about it.

Sansa only knew that Dontos gave the hairnet, and he's dead. She can't give any useful information about it.

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

3 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

Sansa only knew that Dontos gave the hairnet, and he's dead. She can't give any useful information about it

 Dontos is the information.  The fact that Dontos is dead the day after the event confirms his involvement.  (I'm assuming that LF would still kill Dontos). it doesn't matter that he doesn't point straight to LF, it matters that he points away from Tyrion.

[CamiloRP]

10 hours ago, Sevalemer said:

The Lannisters trusted him after he betrayed the Starks.  Why wouldn't the Tyrells trust him after he betrayed the Lannisters for them?

He's been the Lannister's man for years and for all they know he was with Ned for a few weeks. Not the same things, he also provided needed aid to the lannisters in several ocations, but he helped the Tyrells not once (they didn't need him for the murder), and he even went against them when he had Sansa wed Tyrion.

 

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He's still trusted by the royal family because they don't know he betrayed them. And like I said, we don't know what reward he is going to get from the Tyrells because the book isn't written.

But still, he looses influence over the king, replacing Joff with Tommen.

 

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He didn't know he was going to get Harrenhal before he betrayed anyone. He saw it as an opportunity to improve his standing somehow and it worked. It's likely the same thing here.

He asked for Harrenhall twice, and was offered it a third time.

 

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The Tyrells gain Joffrey not being king. Clearly, Olenna is the real head of the household and understood he was cruel and uncontrollable.  And they had thrown their lot in with the Lannisters by agreeing to the alliance in the first place, to make up for initially being traitors. Olenna says all of this.

But what does LF bring to the table?

 

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Olenna thought the risk of being caught in a regicide was worth killing Joffrey.  When you play the game of thrones etc etc.

Why increase the risk by adding a known liar (and trusted advisor of your target), a drunken fool and a teenager when she was gonna do the poisoning herself, and take the poison from Sansa in plain view of a lot of people? Wouldn't it be better to keep the poison in her pocket from the get go, excluding the possibility of the plan being foiled by those three untrustworthy individuals and people spotting her taking the poison from Sansa?

 

[sifth]

1 hour ago, House Cambodia said:

Sansa only knew that Dontos gave the hairnet, and he's dead. She can't give any useful information about it.

I'm just saying, what would have happened, if Sansa forgot her hairnet that day. She's only a kid after all.

[House Cambodia]

8 minutes ago, sifth said:

I'm just saying, what would have happened, if Sansa forgot her hairnet that day. She's only a kid after all.

The murder would have failed and none would have been the wiser. Sansa was extremely fastidious over her clothing and jewellery however - I think it was reasonable to assume she's remember the hairnet.

[Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom]

17 hours ago, Club-foot cleft-lips said:

First off, Happy birthday. I peaked at your profile page.

next.. Do you have a preferred Jon parentage theory? or more fun, a preferred R+L child that you like the idea of more?

Thanks mate! 

I do like the idea of Jon being the son of Brandon and Ashara, even though I know this theory tends to be seen as farfetched. It is hard to have a lot of ideas considering we don't have the exact timeline on how things went, but I suspect Brandon had his time with Ashara him being who he is.

 

16 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

So what do you make of the Origin Story of the TV show? The one where GRRM accepted D&D as showrunners because they were the only ones to work out that formula?

 

For me, it's D&D - done and dusted.  If it affects GRRM's writing going forward, it will be that he doesn't build it up to be a huge biga55 reveal because we all know and are bored with it by now.

I truly think D&D didn't give GRRM much importance at the time and just decided, in their arrogant way, to do their own thing. I think it is possible R + L = J is a thing, but not the way they did in the show, with Rhaegar asking the High Septon to annul his marriage to Elia, that made no sense, the marriage had been consumated and produced two children, the High Septon would never annul such union. If Jon is, in fact, Rhaegar's son, the most I can believe is true is that he is a bastard.

D&D defaulted to explain that everything they did was because GRRM told them so, but we could see GRRM was not happy with how the show was going, I think they had a rocky work relationship and he just decided to leave when season 4 was over. You can see how the quality of the TV Show decreased once GRRM was gone from the production team.

[Sevalemer]

7 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

He's been the Lannister's man for years and for all they know he was with Ned for a few weeks. Not the same things, he also provided needed aid to the lannisters in several ocations, but he helped the Tyrells not once (they didn't need him for the murder), and he even went against them when he had Sansa wed Tyrion.

 

But still, he looses influence over the king, replacing Joff with Tommen.

 

He asked for Harrenhall twice, and was offered it a third time.

 

But what does LF bring to the table?

 

Why increase the risk by adding a known liar (and trusted advisor of your target), a drunken fool and a teenager when she was gonna do the poisoning herself, and take the poison from Sansa in plain view of a lot of people? Wouldn't it be better to keep the poison in her pocket from the get go, excluding the possibility of the plan being foiled by those three untrustworthy individuals and people spotting her taking the poison from Sansa?

 

You say they didn't "need him for the murder" but maybe the plan was his?

 

We've seen similar things unfold this way.  Bronn quipped to Tyrion about how his life would be easier if Tommen was king and Joff died and Tyrion considers it. He doesn't immediately arrest Bronn or tell Cersei he's not loyal.

 

We don't know the details about the planning, and what it involved. It was probably something vaguely implied until both parties agreed to do it.

 

I don't think LF had great influence on Joff.  Tommen is the much more malleable king, it's pretty much regularly commented on by everyone.

 

Ultimately, LF's explanation of the murder plot fits with his entire MO in the story. According to George R. R. Martin, "Everybody trusts him because he seems powerless, and he's very friendly, and he's very helpful."

 

And for a larger point, imo, all these theories are "hated" because the building blocks for the story George has planned are there, and we are all making ourselves crazy waiting for this damn next book.

 

 

 

Edited April 10 by Sevalemer

[CamiloRP]

29 minutes ago, Sevalemer said:

You say they didn't "need him for the murder" but maybe the plan was his?

It probably was, still, why would the Tyrells accept rather than just decline/narc on him and do it themselves without his involvement and without exposing Olenna as much? In fact, if it was his plan it's even more of a reason to mistrust him, as his plan screams "set up".

Even if you wanted to murder someone, would you go ahead with it if a random guy you had no reason to trust (and is a known ally of your victim) would to approach you with a plan that involved you murdering the in front of a thousand people, while carrying the murder weapon yourself for a long period of time, handling it in open view of everyone and use a teenager and a drunk as accomplices? Like I said, it screams set up.

And if LF planned the whole thing, why does he need the Tyrells? Why risk them ratting on him? why use an old woman with presumably weak and slow hands to sneakily handle poison in plain view twice without being caught? why not using one if his many henchmen?

 

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We've seen similar things unfold this way.  Bronn quipped to Tyrion about how his life would be easier if Tommen was king and Joff died and Tyrion considers it. He doesn't immediately arrest Bronn or tell Cersei he's not loyal.

Bronn and Tyrion have much more of a relationship than LF and the Tyrells, so Bronn has much more of a reason to assume that Tyrion won't execute him or narc on him, and Tyrion has more of a reason to know that Bronns motives are to serve him, and he wouldn't do it if Tyrion doesn't ask.

Also, Tyrion's relationship with Joff is much more strained than Joff's relationship with the Tyrells, whom he likely has only met briefly and varely interacted with.

 

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We don't know the details about the planning, and what it involved. It was probably something vaguely implied until both parties agreed to do it.

A vaguely implied regicide ploy is still a regicide ploy, probably the worst crime there is in the story, and an incredible risk to do, specially if you have no need for the aid of your co-conspirators.

 

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I don't think LF had great influence on Joff.  Tommen is the much more malleable king, it's pretty much regularly commented on by everyone.

Tyrion and Varys do, ofcourse they can be wrong. But someone did tip of Slynt that Ned was gonna get excecuted and instructed him to act quickly, who else but LF? and how did LF know that if he wyasn't the one who persuaded Joff? Besides, Joff is shown to disobey his mother in favor of council from other people without Tywin at court and without apparently liking either of his uncles this person must either be Petyr or Maester Pycell, as we knowo the Hound wouldn't care about such things and Varys seems unable to control him. Who do you think Joffrey is more likely to listen to? The old pathethic maester who urges caution, the eunuc or the charismatic guy who likely advices him to indulge in hi impulses?

So Petyr has at least some influence on Joff, which means he has more influence on him than on Tommen, who as a little boy has no reason to talk to Baelish or really anyone whom he isn't related to (or isn't an authority figure like a teacher (such as Pycell or a septon or septa). So why give that up in favor of a king that can more easily be controlled by his enemies? (the queen, Kevan, Tywin, Pycelle and even the Tyrells).

 

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Ultimately, LF's explanation of the murder plot fits with his entire MO in the story.

Yeah? When did he betray someone who was useful to him to favor someone who wasn't?

When did he use as a tool someone he didn't have complete controll under?

When did he use an elaborate plan rather than a much more simple alternative?

(Sansa is the exception to the first two, since he has a massive, creepy weakspot for her)

 

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According to George R. R. Martin, "Everybody trusts him because he seems powerless, and he's very friendly, and he's very helpful.

One thing is to trust him to aid in war, or with a pact, or to trust him enough to give him lands you wouldn't give to someone of greater standing, but trust him in the greatest crime there is in this society is a wholy different beast.

 

[Sevalemer]

20 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

It probably was, still, why would the Tyrells accept rather than just decline/narc on him and do it themselves without his involvement and without exposing Olenna as much? In fact, if it was his plan it's even more of a reason to mistrust him, as his plan screams "set up".

Even if you wanted to murder someone, would you go ahead with it if a random guy you had no reason to trust (and is a known ally of your victim) would to approach you with a plan that involved you murdering the in front of a thousand people, while carrying the murder weapon yourself for a long period of time, handling it in open view of everyone and use a teenager and a drunk as accomplices? Like I said, it screams set up.

And if LF planned the whole thing, why does he need the Tyrells? Why risk them ratting on him? why use an old woman with presumably weak and slow hands to sneakily handle poison in plain view twice without being caught? why not using one if his many henchmen?

 

Bronn and Tyrion have much more of a relationship than LF and the Tyrells, so Bronn has much more of a reason to assume that Tyrion won't execute him or narc on him, and Tyrion has more of a reason to know that Bronns motives are to serve him, and he wouldn't do it if Tyrion doesn't ask.

Also, Tyrion's relationship with Joff is much more strained than Joff's relationship with the Tyrells, whom he likely has only met briefly and varely interacted with.

 

A vaguely implied regicide ploy is still a regicide ploy, probably the worst crime there is in the story, and an incredible risk to do, specially if you have no need for the aid of your co-conspirators.

 

Tyrion and Varys do, ofcourse they can be wrong. But someone did tip of Slynt that Ned was gonna get excecuted and instructed him to act quickly, who else but LF? and how did LF know that if he wyasn't the one who persuaded Joff? Besides, Joff is shown to disobey his mother in favor of council from other people without Tywin at court and without apparently liking either of his uncles this person must either be Petyr or Maester Pycell, as we knowo the Hound wouldn't care about such things and Varys seems unable to control him. Who do you think Joffrey is more likely to listen to? The old pathethic maester who urges caution, the eunuc or the charismatic guy who likely advices him to indulge in hi impulses?

So Petyr has at least some influence on Joff, which means he has more influence on him than on Tommen, who as a little boy has no reason to talk to Baelish or really anyone whom he isn't related to (or isn't an authority figure like a teacher (such as Pycell or a septon or septa). So why give that up in favor of a king that can more easily be controlled by his enemies? (the queen, Kevan, Tywin, Pycelle and even the Tyrells).

 

Yeah? When did he betray someone who was useful to him to favor someone who wasn't?

When did he use as a tool someone he didn't have complete controll under?

When did he use an elaborate plan rather than a much more simple alternative?

(Sansa is the exception to the first two, since he has a massive, creepy weakspot for her)

 

One thing is to trust him to aid in war, or with a pact, or to trust him enough to give him lands you wouldn't give to someone of greater standing, but trust him in the greatest crime there is in this society is a wholy different beast.

 

I don't agree with your build-up of "regicide."

Everyone does regicide.  The Freys and Boltons committed regicide. The Lannisters committed regicide. There was regicide galore in the DoD.

 

To say that Littlefinger can't find a way to influence Tommen when his original plan with Ned was to rule through regency with the children in custody and he's CURRENTLY ACTING AS THE LORD OF THE VALE WITH A CHILD FIRMLY UNDER HIS GRIP is absurd.  Would LF have trouble ruling the Vale if Robin was Joffrey 2.0?  Of. Course.

 

This has gone far off the rails. LF and Olenna scheming to kill Joff is the story. Everything fits. Trying to poke holes into it to make the argument that Tyrion was the target for no reason because of no reason is not a compelling argument.

[CamiloRP]

14 minutes ago, Sevalemer said:

I don't agree with your build-up of "regicide."

Everyone does regicide.  The Freys and Boltons committed regicide. The Lannisters committed regicide. There was regicide galore in the DoD.

No, they kill pretenders, that is, the killing of those kings bennefitted the eventual king so they are spared. This is not the case unless LF intended the place Stannis or Dany in the throne, or that Tommen was somehow involved in the killing of Joffrey. And even then, if they are caught, their life is still definitely over, as the life of the Freys and Boltons would've been if Robb had found out about their plans. Your argument makes no sense.

 

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To say that Littlefinger can't find a way to influence Tommen when his original plan with Ned was to rule through regency with the children in custody and he's CURRENTLY ACTING AS THE LORD OF THE VALE WITH A CHILD FIRMLY UNDER HIS GRIP is absurd.  Would LF have trouble ruling the Vale if Robin was Joffrey 2.0?  Of. Course.

You do realise this situations are extremely different, no? In his original plan his idea was to hold influence over Ned, since Ned would've been the one rulling.

Same thing with Sweetrobin, he held influence over Lysa, who ruled in Arryn's sted, and now rules by virtue of being his stepfather.

In what world would overprotective Cersei, power obsessed Tywin, or the power hungry Tyrells would've let act as Tommen's regent? In what world LF can manipulate Tywin better than he can Joffrey?

 

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This has gone far off the rails. LF and Olenna scheming to kill Joff is the story. Everything fits.

If everything fits, why haven't you been able to answer any of my questions?

How does it fit that Olenna gets involved in a regicide ploy with three untrustworthy people (a liar allied to the target, a teenager and a drunken fool) only to do all the work herself?

Why place the poison in Sansa, involving her and Dontos and risking Olenna to be spotted taking it rather than Olenna carrying it herself from the get go?

Why would the Tyrells assume they can trust LF and why would LF assume he can trust them?

Why would LF or the Tyrells think it's a good idea to have an old woman with pressumably slow and weak hands sneakily handle poison in plain sight twice (the second of those times being when everyone was looking in the direction of Joffrey and the chalise?

Why place the poison on Sansa when there was no reason to assume she would be seated near Joff?

Why would the Tyrells risk Margeary's death by poisoning the cup she drinks from, or risk her be implicated in the murder if Joff offered her some wine, she refused and then he died, poisoned by that wine?

Why would Petyr spend time and energy getting the jousting dwarves if they, if anything, only complicated the plan by causing Olenna to have to get out of her sit in order to be close to the chalise again? And why would Olenna choose this time to place the poison, rather than a more discreat time?

Why use Olenna as a poisoner? besides her old, slow hands, there were three people between her and Joff, hardly close enough to discretely plant the poison from her seat.

Why would Petyr kill Joffrey? not only he looses influence over the Iron Throne by doing it, but he also has admitedly no motive.

 

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LF and Olenna scheming to kill Joff is the story.

Also, I wanted to go back to this for one reason: saying "it's the story" is just saying "it's what a character told us" in this case. If you used that same logic for, say, the murder of Jon Arryn, you woudl've been pigheadedly certain that Cersei had him killed, because "it's the story". And we had more reason to believe that story than we have for the Olenna/LF theory, as Lysa wasn't known as a liar to us back then, while LF is, and Cersei had more reason for wanting Jon Arryn dead than LF has for wanting Tyrion dead. But you would've been wrong. Cersei wasn't the killer, "the story" lied to us.

Funnily enough, this lie about a poisoning commited using the aid of a Tully woman was in all likelyhood invented by Littlefinger. And in this case his intended target was an adult from a noble house who served as hand of the king and was wed to a much younger Tully woman, which LF intended to marry. Do this events mirror one another?

 

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Trying to poke holes into it

I don't think you can use the word "trying" if you haven't successfully explained the holes poked.

 

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to make the argument that Tyrion was the target for no reason because of no reason is not a compelling argument.

Well, besides the reasons given above, there are other reasons:

George claimed he wanted us to think about the answer, what would be there to think about if the answer was to be given only a few chapters later?

There's also the reason George had Joff eating Tyrion's pie when he died to at least hint at the possibility of Tyrion being the target.

And he had Tyrion dunk the wine, so the poison in the wine was unable to be confirmed.

Then there's a discussion about weather or not the poison was in the wine or the pie. They reach the conclussion that it was in the pie, however they do so by reasons we know to be false: Tyrion dunked the wine because he knew it was poisoned. Ofcourse we know Tyrion didn't know that.

Also, "the story" being told by arguably the biggest liar in the series, who also provides no evidence and no motive, is a reason to distrust it.

In the end, there's only one piece of "evidence" that points to the Olenna/LF theory: the word of a liar. And there is much more evidence pointing it to be a false theory.

[Tai Pan]

Jon's father is Rhaegar.  I never liked it.  I don't believe in it. The better theory is Artur Dayne fathered Jon Snow on Lyanna Stark. 

[Sevalemer]

47 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

And even then, if they are caught, their life is still definitely over, as the life of the Freys and Boltons would've been if Robb had found out about their plans

That's exactly what I'm saying lol. They did it anyway. They all do, despite the risk of certain death if they are caught.

 

47 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

In what world would overprotective Cersei, power obsessed Tywin, or the power hungry Tyrells would've let act as Tommen's regent?

Tywin and Cersei would've been around if Ned was ruling as regent, right?  I mean, LF's plan with Ned wasn't "assassinate all the Lannisters," right?

In any case, Tywin wasn't going to live forever, and Cersei played herself out of power quite fast.

47 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

How does it fit that Olenna gets involved in a regicide ploy with three untrustworthy people (a liar allied to the target, a teenager and a drunken fool) only to do all the work herself?

Because LF and her plotted it out, off-screen.

47 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Why place the poison in Sansa, involving her and Dontos and risking Olenna to be spotted taking it rather than Olenna carrying it herself from the get go?

Because Sansa was with Tyrion, and he had planned out a choreographed insult with Tyrion to get him and the king to fight. If the plan went awry and Sansa couldn't escape, she would be carrying the smoking gun proving Tyrion's and her guilt.

47 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Why would the Tyrells assume they can trust LF and why would LF assume he can trust them?

Mutually assured destruction. LF had enough influence to negotiate the alliance. If Olenna or LF were caught, they would implicate the other.

47 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Why would LF or the Tyrells think it's a good idea to have an old woman with pressumably slow and weak hands sneakily handle poison in plain sight twice (the second of those times being when everyone was looking in the direction of Joffrey and the chalise?

Maybe she felt strongly about handling it herself, instead of involving yet ANOTHER party. You seem to feel pretty strongly about adding more folks who could rat them out.

47 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Why place the poison on Sansa when there was no reason to assume she would be seated near Joff?

See above.

47 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Why would the Tyrells risk Margeary's death by poisoning the cup she drinks from, or risk her be implicated in the murder if Joff offered her some wine, she refused and then he died, poisoned by that wine?

No idea, unless Olenna told her she was going to do it.

47 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Why would Petyr spend time and energy getting the jousting dwarves if they, if anything, only complicated the plan by causing Olenna to have to get out of her sit in order to be close to the chalise again? And why would Olenna choose this time to place the poison, rather than a more discreat time?

To implicate Tyrion even further.

47 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Why would Petyr kill Joffrey? not only he looses influence over the Iron Throne by doing it, but he also has admitedly no motive.

To sow discord in House Lannister.

47 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Also, I wanted to go back to this for one reason: saying "it's the story" is just saying "it's what a character told us" in this case. If you used that same logic for, say, the murder of Jon Arryn, you woudl've been pigheadedly certain that Cersei had him killed, because "it's the story". And we had more reason to believe that story than we have for the Olenna/LF theory, as Lysa wasn't known as a liar to us back then, while LF is, and Cersei had more reason for wanting Jon Arryn dead than LF has for wanting Tyrion dead. But you would've been wrong. Cersei wasn't the killer, "the story" lied to us.

This is very funny, because Lysa changes her story from Cersei to Tyrion, and we have Tyrion's PoV in which he is assuredly NOT GUILTY of the attempted killing of Bran or Jon Arryn. 

 

Sure, LF could be lying about the whole thing. That doesn't make Tyrion the target any more likely than Margaery was the target. Which is why poking holes in what the book does tell us in service of your theory is not a compelling argument.

 

Let's go one step further. Maybe MACE was the target. LF could've been lying!  The assassination attempt makes no sense. That means Mace was the target, I'm convinced.

Edited April 11 by Sevalemer

[House Cambodia]

30 minutes ago, Tai Pan said:

Jon's father is Rhaegar.  I never liked it.  I don't believe in it. The better theory is Artur Dayne fathered Jon Snow on Lyanna Stark. 

Rhaegar works for me, albeit being kinda boring after so long. But your post has prompted a couple of questions I've been mulling over for some time but didn't think it worth a new thread. Can anyone answer these questions:

What happened to Lyanna's body? Surely Ned didn't bring it back to Winterfell, else he'd have given the game away, yet her statue is in the crypt.

Was it buried with the fallen knights at the Tower of Joy? Unmarked?

As Rhaegar and Robert duelled at the Trident, Rhaegar surely knew his 'wife' was giving birth, but at what point did Robert know his beloved had popped out a baby by his rival? Did he already know as they duelled? Did Ned deliver the news sometime later?

Talking of whom, where were Ned and his companions supposed to be? There was a freaking big rebellion underway and a bunch of the leading protagonists were off acting as midwives - were no questions asked?

[CamiloRP]

2 minutes ago, Sevalemer said:

That's exactly what I'm saying lol. They did it anyway. They all do, despite the risk of certain death if they are caught.

Thing is, manathe Freys had reason to trust the Boltons as they would become the rulers in the North and the Boltons had reason to trust the Freys because they would become the rulers in the Riverlands, and they have the support of the Lanniter-Tyrell alliance, while the Starks didn't even have control of the North, as Roose said, they had already lost. On top of all of it: after the red wedding, the kingdom of the North would end, leaving no one to punish them.

On the other hand, the Tyrells have no reason to trust LF, Lf has no reason to trust the Tyrells, and regardless if they manage to kill Joff or not, the Lannisters are still in power and able to punish them if they are caught. And the Lannisters are largely believed to be winning the war, so betting against them is not as good an idea as betting against Robb.

 

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Tywin and Cersei would've been around if Ned was ruling as regent, right?  I mean, LF's plan with Ned wasn't "assassinate all the Lannisters," right?

So? the regent e still be Ned, and the power of the goldcloaks was behind Petyr, so they would have control over the kingdom for three years, regardless of Tywin and Cersei.

 

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In any case, Tywin wasn't going to live forever, and Cersei played herself out of power quite fast.

Unless Petyr planned to kill Tywin he had no reas to think he would die before Tommen came of age in 8 years, he's not that old. Also, Cersei plays herself out of power because Tywin is dead, she couldn't have done it while under Tywin's control. Finally, even if Tywin dies and Cersei is sent to Casterly Rock, there's still the Tyrells, Kevan and any other number of people who would definitely be against Petyr acting as regent.

 

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Because LF and her plotted it out, off-screen.

That's not an explanation. It still makes no sense for her to agree to such a plan, or for LF to agree to such a plan. "They planned it off-screen" is not an explanation for the senselessness of the plan.

 

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Because Sansa was with Tyrion, and he had planned out a choreographed insult with Tyrion to get him and the king to fight. If the plan went awry and Sansa couldn't escape, she would be carrying the smoking gun proving Tyrion's and her guilt.

But he is obssessed with Sansa, he certainly doesn't want her to die. Besides, there's no need to plant her as a patsy if you already have Tyrion. Specially if there are no traces of the poison, because it was all used in the poisoning. This makes no sense.

 

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Mutually assured destruction. LF had enough influence to negotiate the alliance. If Olenna or LF were caught, they would implicate the other.

Precisely my point: why risk the "mutually assured destruction"? why not just do it yourself and remove that risk? If Olenna was caught handling the poison (which is very likely) there's no reason for her not to implicate LF. Conversely: if Dontos spills, he can implicate LF and him in turn, Olenna. Why risk that?

 

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Maybe she felt strongly about handling it herself, instead of involving yet ANOTHER party. You seem to feel pretty strongly about adding more folks who could rat them out.

If she felt unsure about that, why involve Petyr, Sansa and Dontos? Why not involving someone in the most important part to add someone. It makes no sense to add all those people and do all the work herself?

I can get not wanting to involve extra people, so why didn't she carry the poison in her pocket from the get go, and poison the cup herself, removing the risk of involving three very risky allies and the added risk of handling the poison an extra time?

 

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See above.

So, no reason?

 

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No idea, unless Olenna told her she was going to do it.

You seem to ignore the latter part of the question: or risk her be implicated in the murder if Joff offered her some wine, she refused and then he died, poisoned by that wine?

Besides, if Margeary knew about the poisoning it makes more sense for her to be the poisoner: she's seated right next to Joff and presumably has more agile hands than her almost 80 year old grandmother.

 

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To implicate Tyrion even further.

Is it worth it, given it adds extra preasure to the poisoning? as everyone is looking in Olenna's direction.

 

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To sow discord in House Lannister.

If anything that gives power to House Lannister. With Tywin in the capital and a less wild king, with more time to regent over, he strengthens their possition. Joffrey is the whole reason why the North is in war with the Lannisters, that would've never happened under Tywin-Tommen. Also, Joffrey's cruel nature would probably create friction between the Tyrells and the Lannisters, which would bring more chaos.

In that case, LF should want to kill Tywin, not Joffrey.

 

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This is very funny, because Lysa changes her story from Cersei to Tyrion, and we have Tyrion's PoV in which he is assuredly NOT GUILTY of the attempted killing of Bran or Jon Arryn.

That only proves Tyrion didn't do it, but "the story" at that time still was that Cersei was guilty, so this doesn't change my point. "The story" at that time was wrong, and the only evidence we had for "the story" was a lie crafter by LF, why would it be different here? Specially including all the similarities between both victims and murder ploys.

 

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Sure, LF could be lying about the whole thing. That doesn't make Tyrion the target any more likely than Margaery was the target. Which is why poking holes in what the book does tell us in service of your theory is not a compelling argument.

 

Let's go one step further. Maybe MACE was the target. LF could've been lying!  The assassination attempt makes no sense. That means Mace was the target, I'm convinced.

You are ignoring all the evidence i pressented for Tyrion to be the target.

Mace couldn't be the target, as the poison was either in Joffrey's/Margeary's wine or Tyrion's pie. So the target must be one of those three. We already discussed why Joffrey makes no sense.

 

Let's examine Margeary as a target.

Now, if Margeary was the target, Olenna can't be the poisoner, which ofcourse I find fine, as I don't think she was the poisoner, but still there are a few problems with Margeary as a victim:

LF has no reason for wanting her dead.

Why poison her wine instead of her food? the wine would risk Joffrey dying.

Also, if the wine was what held the poison, it was poisoned at a time when Joffrey was the only one drinking it, making it a poor choice if you want to kill Margeary.

Like with Joffrey, everyone was looking in the chalice's direction, why use the poison at that time instead of at any other?

Like with Joffrey, why use Sansa to carry the poison? she wasn't seated near Margeary.

Like with Joffrey, why put the poison in wine if you intend to simulate a choaking? you can't choak on wine.

So yeah, Margeary as a target makes no sense. (Most of this inconsistencies apply to Mace as well, and to any other attendant to the wedding, with one exce[tion).

 

Now let's see the reason's why I think Tyrion was the intended target:

Right of the bat, for process of elimination Tyrion makes sense as a target, because Joff and Marge (the only other two likely victims) don't make sense. However, if that was the only evidence there was for Tyrion being the target, it would be a weak case, but I have more:

The pie makes more sense if you intend to simulate a choaking, which is what GRRM claimed the idea was. If the poison was in the pie, Tyrion was the target.

LF has a lot of reasons for wanting Tyrion dead: he wants to marry Sansa (which he can't if she's married to Tyrion); Tyrion has shown himself hostile to LF; Tyrion promissed Harrenhall to LF (something LF clearly wants) but then went back on it; Tyrion knows LF lied about the dagger, so he knows LF sort of started the war; if Lf wants to de-stabilize the Lannisters Tyrion is the second best victim (after Tywin); Despite being antagonistic throughout ACOK, LF recomends Tyrion as master of coin, why? would it be, to put it in LF's words "Always keep your foes confused. If they are never certain who you are or what you want, they cannot know what you are like to do next. Sometimes the best way to baffle them is to make moves that have no purpose, or even seem to work against you."

There's also the fact that LF is likely the one behind Tyrion's murder attempt in the battle of the Balckwater. Mandon Moore was named to the Kingsguard by Jon Arryn, but Jon didn't like him, so he was probably recomended by Lyse, who's under LF's control. And Lf is known to use the kingsguard as his henchmen.

Then there's the fact that the poison was with Sansa, meaning it was right next to Tyrion, allowing any LF henchmen to take it from Sansa and place it in the pie in one simple move.

The jousting dwarves point at the target being either Joff or Tyrion, but I think they point to Tyrion more, as they would distract him, making it easier for the pie to be dozed without him noticing.

And I'll bring this up again: Littlefinger wants to marry Sansa, the whole plan is to rescue Sansa in order to eventually marry her. So he definitely needs Tyrion to die. If the target wasn't Tyrion, and the poison was succesfully used to simulate a choaking, Sansa wouldn't be widowed and LF wouldn't be able to wed her.

So, as you can see. Tyrion makes much more sense as the target than anyone else.

 

[CamiloRP]

51 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

What happened to Lyanna's body? Surely Ned didn't bring it back to Winterfell, else he'd have given the game away, yet her statue is in the crypt.

Lyanna is confirmed several times by several characters (Ned, Robert, and Lady Dustin, at least) to be buried in the cripts. Ned her bones back, but no one else's.

What "game" do you think taking her to Winterfell "gives away"?

 

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As Rhaegar and Robert duelled at the Trident, Rhaegar surely knew his 'wife' was giving birth, but at what point did Robert know his beloved had popped out a baby by his rival? Did he already know as they duelled? Did Ned deliver the news sometime later?

Talking of whom, where were Ned and his companions supposed to be? There was a freaking big rebellion underway and a bunch of the leading protagonists were off acting as midwives - were no questions asked?

The TOJ incident is believed (or confirmed, I'm not sure) to have happened after Ned lifts the siege of Storm's End, which itself happened after Robert got to King's Landing, which happened after the Sack of King's Landing, which happened after the Batlle of the Trident. Considering travel times, teh TOJ took place a few months after the trident, so she wasn't giving birth during the battle, and there was no way for Robert or Ned to know she was pregnant.

Also, with this timeline, the TOJ took place after the war had ended, so there was no immediate need for NEd or his companions.

[House Cambodia]

3 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Lyanna is confirmed several times by several characters (Ned, Robert, and Lady Dustin, at least) to be buried in the cripts. Ned her bones back, but no one else's.

What "game" do you think taking her to Winterfell "gives away"?

 

The TOJ incident is believed (or confirmed, I'm not sure) to have happened after Ned lifts the siege of Storm's End, which itself happened after Robert got to King's Landing, which happened after the Sack of King's Landing, which happened after the Batlle of the Trident. Considering travel times, teh TOJ took place a few months after the trident, so she wasn't giving birth during the battle, and there was no way for Robert or Ned to know she was pregnant.

Also, with this timeline, the TOJ took place after the war had ended, so there was no immediate need for NEd or his companions.

Thanks for clearing these issue up. Regarding your question, Lyanna's body wouldn't have decomposed in that time. Catelyn and Maester Lewin would have been able to see evidence of her having given birth. Prior to that, it would have been examined at Starfall very soon after her death.

Edited April 11 by House Cambodia

[CamiloRP]

7 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

Thanks for clearing these issue up. Regarding your question, Lyanna's body wouldn't have decomposed in that time. Catelyn and Maester Lewin would have been able to see evidence of her having given birth. Prior to that, it would have been examined at Starfall very soon after her death.

Mmm, I'm not sure. First of all, we don't know what "that time" is. The trip between the TOJ an Winterfell likely takes a few months by horse (a minimum of 53 days according to this, but likely more, as they are carrying a corpse). By ship it would take at minimum 7 days to get from the TOJ to Storm's End, then 20 days in a ship from Storm's End to White Harbor and an additional 10 days from White Harbor to Winterfell, for a total of 37 days, this mimimum is certainly enoug. That seems like enough time for her corpse to decompose enough to remove evidence of her giving birth. Also, Ned could've stayed some h for her to be decomposed to the point extra time in either the TOJ or St dorm's End (in fact, he likely stayed some extra time, bringing down the tower). And we have to add in some extra time for his trip to Starfall.

Keep in mind that she wouldn't need to be examined at Starfall for it to be suspicious, as Ned would've turned up in Starfall with a baby.

There's also the fact that corpses in the story are often cleaned with beetles, Ned might have done that. I mean, I would do that rahter than travel with a rotting corpse.

Finally, why would anyone examine the corpse? Ned can simply ask for it not to be done and there's no reason to examine her remains.

 

[House Cambodia]

10 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Keep in mind that she wouldn't need to be examined at Starfall for it to be suspicious, as Ned would've turned up in Starfall with a baby.

Granted, the time it took to reach Winterfell could leave nowt but bones, but he went straight from TOJ to nearby Starfall to return Dawn. It would be extremely suspicious if he turned up with a freshly deceased young woman and a baby seemingly born at the same time as her death. Questions would certainly be asked and gossip spread, not least by those close to Ashara and Wylla.

Now, you might want to say Ned just wandered around like the Israelites in the desert with a corpse, a baby and a very famous sword until the body decomposed. But that requires him to go off the map along with news of the disappearance of kingsguard nights and other prominent knights and a freaking tower without anyone asking questions for weeks or months on end!

Edited April 11 by House Cambodia

[CamiloRP]

1 minute ago, House Cambodia said:

Granted, the time it took to reach Winterfell could leave nowt but bones, but he went straight from TOJ to nearby Starfall to return Dawn. It would be extremely suspicious if he turned up with a freshly deceased young woman and a baby seemingly born at the same time as her death. Questions would certainly be asked and gossip spread, not least by those close to Ashara and Wylla.

Now, you might want to say Ned just wandered around like the Israelites in the desert until the body decomposed. But that requires him to go off the map along with news of the disappearance of kingsguard nights and other prominent knights and a freaking tower without anyone asking questions for weeks or months on end!

The thing is, him ariving there with a newborn is still suspicious, corpse or not. There are two options: there was a wet nurse in the TOJ or there wasn't. If there was, Ned can arrive to the TOJ claiming the wet nurse to be the actual mother of the baby (tho for it to work, we have to assume the wet nurse had no child of her own). If there wasn't a wet nurse, Ned ariving in Starfall with a new born and no way to feed it would be suspicious as hell, regardless of Lyanna's body.