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NFL 2024: It's Draft Season You Sandbagging SOBs


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So Detroit gets the draft and they are picking so late that most fans will be in bed and pick 29 is kind of a ehh not exactly sexy...  Normally they are always in top 10 draft day but nope, not the year you host it. Last year would've been perfect, I guess the script writers screwed that all up.  Unfortunately for me the only day I would have a chance to go to it is Saturday and that just isn't the same.

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The Draft is tonight, and it sounds like teams are gonna be reaching for quarterbacks even worse than normal.  There's a lot of talk that 4 guys (Williams, Daniels, McCarthy and Maye) go in the top 6, and Penix doesn't last past 13.  That would be an unprecedented QB haul, and would mean a bunch of top prospects still available for the teams picking in the first 10 picks who don't need a qb. 

Assuming qbs go 1-2-3 without any trades, that still leaves NYG, MIN, VEG, and DEN needing quarterbacks, and only two guys left who are even remotely 1st round picks.  Think Vegas wants a year with Minshew/O'Connell under center?  Or the Giants need more of the Daniel Jones Experience?  There's gonna be a lot of FOMO pressure, because if you don't come out of the draft with a quarterback, your season is basically over before it begins. 

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https://x.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1783133659249193449

Trying to link this in while on my desktop and still can't get the Tweet to appear in the body.  :dunno:   Sorry.

So anyways, this was an interesting graphic with the "hit rate" by position of first round picks.  Unsurprisingly, offensive linemen are the safest picks (also the least frequent) while skill position players have the highest bust rate.

Edited by Rhom
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2 hours ago, Rhom said:

So anyways, this was an interesting graphic with the "hit rate" by position of first round picks.  Unsurprisingly, offensive linemen are the safest picks (also the least frequent) while skill position players have the highest bust rate.

Find it interesting safeties and corners are so low.

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12 minutes ago, DMC said:

Find it interesting safeties and corners are so low.

Seems like there are a lot of secondary guys that can skate by on great physical tools in college and then get exposed in the pros.  In college there (usually) isn't a ton of incentive to challenge top cornerbacks, because there are always other places to throw. 

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2 hours ago, Rhom said:

https://x.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1783133659249193449

Trying to link this in while on my desktop and still can't get the Tweet to appear in the body.  :dunno:   Sorry.

So anyways, this was an interesting graphic with the "hit rate" by position of first round picks.  Unsurprisingly, offensive linemen are the safest picks (also the least frequent) while skill position players have the highest bust rate.

That is interesting.  I'd also love to see that analysis done while controlling for coach/GM change.  

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5 hours ago, Maithanet said:

The Draft is tonight, and it sounds like teams are gonna be reaching for quarterbacks even worse than normal.  There's a lot of talk that 4 guys (Williams, Daniels, McCarthy and Maye) go in the top 6, and Penix doesn't last past 13.  That would be an unprecedented QB haul, and would mean a bunch of top prospects still available for the teams picking in the first 10 picks who don't need a qb. 

Assuming qbs go 1-2-3 without any trades, that still leaves NYG, MIN, VEG, and DEN needing quarterbacks, and only two guys left who are even remotely 1st round picks.  Think Vegas wants a year with Minshew/O'Connell under center?  Or the Giants need more of the Daniel Jones Experience?  There's gonna be a lot of FOMO pressure, because if you don't come out of the draft with a quarterback, your season is basically over before it begins. 

I'm sure Dallas would be willing to part with Trey Lance if someone comes calling. Anyone? Bueller, Bueller?

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27 minutes ago, Ramsay B. said:

I’d be happy with basically anyone other than J.J. McCarthy for the Giants. He’s all yours @Mr. Chatywin et al. Please trade up.

Would you honestly rather have Penix over McCarthy? I'm obviously biased as a Michigan fan. I watched Penix at Indiana and he looked really good, but couldn't stay healthy. He put up big stats last season with a guy who is expected to be a 1st round WR. Penix can look awesome but I'd always be scared of a knee injury. 

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I guess we should have seen this coming. They drafted Bijan last year really high and then didn't really use him, same with Pitts so I guess they have no problem w draft and stash philosophy.

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1 minute ago, dbunting said:

Wow Penix to Atl, after they signed Cousins and committed 100 mill guaranteed to him.  This is why I don't work in the NFL, I have no idea who is good!

I look at Penix in Atlanta and can’t help but think of Desmond Ridder.  I dunno man.

But looking at how skinny Jayden Daniels is knowing he’s going to Washington and knowing Caleb Williams is in Chicago where QBs go to die; I just think there are going to be a lot of QB busts.

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