How is Daenerys going to supply her army during the Invasion of Westeros?

[Lord Varys]

34 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

If Daenerys brings a sizable army and a bunch of refugees as some people expect, then yes, she will be at considerable disadvantage in comparison to Aegon. Especially so if her army includes a significant number of Dothraki.

Why are we now talking refugees in addition to soldiers? Why would Dany drag refugees on a campaign of conquest to Westeros in winter? Especially if climate and weather should be much better in Slaver's Bay, Volantis, or even the southern parts of the Dothraki Sea compared to Westeros?

Not sure why the Dothraki would be much of an issue there. If they follow Dany to Westeros they will be disciplined - in their mind this place is some savage backwater the size of Lys of Tyrosh (according to Jorah). They have no interest in the place, so if they go they would have to be fanatically loyal to Daenerys. After all, they would have to cross the sea for that. Which has been anathema to them so far.

34 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Both Aegon and Daenerys will have "take food from the people" problem, but a) Aegon's foreign sellswords will take far less food than Daenerys' foreign barbarians and b) Aegon's foreigners are far less foreign. So that is not going to help her any.

Depends on the size of the respective armies. Dany could very well also only bring 10,000 men to Westeros. But Aegon's Golden Company is likely going to be joined by up to 20,000 Dornishmen, men who have to eat, too.

How little George cares about army logistics can be drawn from the fact that the two Dornish armies sit in the Prince's Pass and the Boneway, respectively, since ACoK. Apparently the food logistics of Westeros are so great that an army can assemble and do nothing for months and years in an infertile mountain region without suffering any problems whatsoever.

Not sure how well that fits with the notion that feudal duties last only a couple of months or that people have to go back home for harvest (which is a thing in the Yronwood lands, among others).

34 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Renly did it during summer. Summer is time during which you build up stores for winter, and if needed, these can be redirected.

Such a large army would still live off the land and thus off the potential winter provisions of the people in the region. Yet they enjoyed the ride and the parties. 

34 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

But again, Golden Company will eat far less food than any force Daenerys can bring that would be able to match it in effectiveness. Especially so if they lose their elephants.

I'm sure the elephants are not there to die quickly. What would be the point of that?

34 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

She will need at least an initial army in order to gain support in Westeros, just as Aegon has to win at least some battles to get lords to declare for him. Name alone is not enough.

Dany has dragons and is a dragonrider, so she could rise armies on the basis of flying above the coastal regions of Westeros, visiting a few castles, combined with the very real threat of a military invasion of their lands. You read things and know, for instance, how Visenya Targaryen won the allegiance of the Vale. Or how the bastard Addam Velaryon raised an army for the queen who denounced him as a traitor.

34 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Food ships are, as I said, unlikely. Just look at how Golden Company landing went, and that was autumn, not winter.

Reread things. The Golden Company are dumped all across the Stormlands by the captains of the ships who transported them. They were not in charge of the navy. The triarchs commissioned sufficient civilian trade ships to get them out of their lands.

Ships go back and forth between Pentos and KL on a daily basis, just as the Narrow Sea is full of ships everywhere.

Also we know that autumn storms are more common than winter storms. The later are more severe so there is certainly a chance for Dany's or Euron's or some other important fleet being caught in a huge storm ... but they would not affect the day-to-day naval trade between the Free Cities and Westeros.

34 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

And monarch sitting the Iron Throne will not be a dragonrider, unless Aegon somehow gets a dragon... which is not unlikely.

It shouldn't be hard for Dany to take KL if she lands there.

34 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

That being said, it is true that scale of warfare will likely be very limited. Which is good for Daenerys because otherwise, between limited number and quality of troops she will be bringing to Westeros, she would have to either rely on local support or else give up.

Not sure what warfare there would be? Did Maegor conquer all of Westeros? Or Jaehaerys I? Or Aegon II or Rhaenyra or Aegon III? Nope. They just seized and kept (or lost) the throne.

34 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Narrow Sea is only narrow relatively speaking. It is 300 miles at the narrowest point, which is distance from Scotland to Norway, or else the average width of eastern Mediterranean.

A much shorter distance than from Gulltown to Eastwatch - yet Jon Snow thinks he can feed his people with food from the Vale.

34 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

And food first has to reach ports on the Narrow Sea, and then be shipped to wherever it is needed. So unless you are looking at feeding only King's Landing and leaving everybody else to starve, it will still be extremely difficult to nearly impossible logistical undertaking.

Well, if the Tyrells can drown KL in food brought up from Highgarden, so could Dany drown Highgarden or Harrenhal or Riverrun in food coming in to KL from Pentos.

The Flatlands are full of farms which produce food. And it stands to reason that similar farmlands exist all around the lands of Essos controlled by the Free Cities. The huge Volantene cities along the Rhoyne, for instance, cannot live off air and water alone.

34 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Welcome to literally every army in the book. Except the Golden Company are actually disciplined, not something you can say for anybody in Daenerys' army except for the Unsullied.

The freedmen companies would be disciplined as well, and the Dothraki, too. They know how to fight, and they also know how to forage.

I mean, sure, some xenophobic or racist peasant might be a tidbit more pissed if his crops are taken by Dothraki, but who cares about his opinion in that world?

34 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Actually, starvation is precisely what usually does lead to rebellion. Well, depending on what / who is causing starvation.

No, a proper famine leads to people just dying off starvation. In population centers you can get food riots and the like if the famine is due to things you can blame your rulers for - like, say, if there is a blockade or mismanagement. In other cases you will get riots where people try to steal food from those who (allegedly) hoard it, etc. But you won't get that in villages and small settlements.

But nobody is going to blame Dany for winter or the civil wars taking place before she even arrived in Westeros. And even if that were the case - keeping the rabble out is what castles and cities have walls for. People who are starving won't travel far nor are they capable of threatening or taking castles and cities.

In fact, if people fear Daenerys because of her dragons and barbarians and what not - they are more likely to flee from the regions she might land at or attack rather than go there.

34 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

And Riverlands are in fact unique, because the area was not exposed to, as you imply, merely normal foraging. Tywin intentionally burnt down as much of the riverlands as he could have as a form of irregular warfare campaign. So no, they do not "exemplify the problems of the people right now reasonably well". No other area in Westeros will be facing the problems Riverlands are facing, unless Daenerys and Aegon (and Euron) burn down half the Westeros in their wars.

Tywin commanded that certain places be burned ... but we actually not see huge portions of the Riverlands being burned.

What we see is more like Thirty Years' War double and triple foraging the same places combined with a deliberate brutalization of the common people. Just take Vargo Hoat's methods as an example. A policy of scorched earth is mentioned but not explicitly shown.

However, the idea that Aegon, Euron, Stannis, whoever else is going to sit on their hands until Dany shows up rather than continuing to brutalize the people and destroy the infrastructure is silly. We see how things are declining further in the Riverlands already, now with Lady Stoneheart's quest for revenge. It is easily imaginable that the Ironborn and the Dornishmen combined will put huge parts of the Reach in the same state the Riverlands are in right now. Aegon's campaign for the throne could destroy the Crownlands, etc.

KL and its surroundings could easily be a sacked ruin by the time Dany shows up. Especially if Euron showed up there first. That is all up in the air. 

[frenin]

On 4/30/2024 at 2:14 PM, Craving Peaches said:

The reason it is important that she comes back is to implement a system to replace slavery. Without a suitable replacement, the region will just revert to slavery again and the only difference will be who is enslaved.

All the more reason to leave Westeros to its fate.

 

On 4/30/2024 at 2:14 PM, Craving Peaches said:

I am saying that I think based on Daenerys' character she would want to save people without having a reward offered/people demanding she come and save them, based on her wanting to save innocents she would be likely to go, since that is why she is in Slaver's Bay in the first place - the slaves did not offer her anything to free them. Yes it would be really stupid for people in Westeros to demand she helped and then offer nothing in return, or to offer a reward then withdraw it after she saved them. I didn't intend to suggest this.

The reason why Dany felt it was her obligation to help slaves and the reason why Dany'd feel it's her obligation to help Westeros are quite different, one it's moral the other is duty.

As Westeros queen to be, it'd be her duty to help Westeros, but Westeros isn't a country of slaves so she'd expect the country to give her her dues.

What Dany might do to help  the people of Westeros without expecting reward is to change the system of serfdom that is in place in the country for something less, even if slightly, oppresive, a la Aegon V but with tools to back up her demands.

[Aldarion]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Why are we now talking refugees in addition to soldiers? Why would Dany drag refugees on a campaign of conquest to Westeros in winter? Especially if climate and weather should be much better in Slaver's Bay, Volantis, or even the southern parts of the Dothraki Sea compared to Westeros?

Because I had heard that idea being thrown around like a lot.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure why the Dothraki would be much of an issue there. If they follow Dany to Westeros they will be disciplined - in their mind this place is some savage backwater the size of Lys of Tyrosh (according to Jorah). They have no interest in the place, so if they go they would have to be fanatically loyal to Daenerys. After all, they would have to cross the sea for that. Which has been anathema to them so far.

No, they will not. You think that Daenerys is some all-controlling divine entity... when in reality, even people claiming to be such failed at controlling their followers. Unless Daenerys takes a page from Stannis' book and decides to castrate anyone who rapes, she will not be able to stop Dothraki from doing that.

And yes, Dothraki are savages. Being "fanatically loyal to Daenerys" would only make them worse, not better, because you would be adding religious motivation to their savagery.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Depends on the size of the respective armies. Dany could very well also only bring 10,000 men to Westeros. But Aegon's Golden Company is likely going to be joined by up to 20,000 Dornishmen, men who have to eat, too.

How little George cares about army logistics can be drawn from the fact that the two Dornish armies sit in the Prince's Pass and the Boneway, respectively, since ACoK. Apparently the food logistics of Westeros are so great that an army can assemble and do nothing for months and years in an infertile mountain region without suffering any problems whatsoever.

Not sure how well that fits with the notion that feudal duties last only a couple of months or that people have to go back home for harvest (which is a thing in the Yronwood lands, among others).

Simple: Martin used actual historical armies as a model, which resulted in Westerosi armies being far more professional than he perhaps intended them to be.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Such a large army would still live off the land and thus off the potential winter provisions of the people in the region. Yet they enjoyed the ride and the parties. 

Uh, that is not how logistics works. Fact that Renly amassed 100 000 men rather indicates that they were not living off the land, especially since his march was noted as being slow. An army living off the land has to be relatively small, and it has to keep moving in order to avoid exhausting local resources.

Neither of which we see with Renly's army.

Rather, he was almost certainly living off supplies that would normally have gone to King's Landing. That was in fact his strategy. And if so, that means he wasn't actually imposing any additional burden onto the food situation.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm sure the elephants are not there to die quickly. What would be the point of that?

I'm certain they will be around for initial battles. I doubt they will be there for much longer than that.

Their point is to have something to counter Westerosi massive superiority in cavalry.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dany has dragons and is a dragonrider, so she could rise armies on the basis of flying above the coastal regions of Westeros, visiting a few castles, combined with the very real threat of a military invasion of their lands. You read things and know, for instance, how Visenya Targaryen won the allegiance of the Vale. Or how the bastard Addam Velaryon raised an army for the queen who denounced him as a traitor.

Visenya Targaryen won allegiance of the Vale because lord of the Vale was a child who wanted to ride a dragon. Do you think all lords in Westeros will die and get replaced by children?

And for "real threat of military invasion" she needs military, which is exactly my point.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Reread things. The Golden Company are dumped all across the Stormlands by the captains of the ships who transported them. They were not in charge of the navy. The triarchs commissioned sufficient civilian trade ships to get them out of their lands.

Ships go back and forth between Pentos and KL on a daily basis, just as the Narrow Sea is full of ships everywhere.

Also we know that autumn storms are more common than winter storms. The later are more severe so there is certainly a chance for Dany's or Euron's or some other important fleet being caught in a huge storm ... but they would not affect the day-to-day naval trade between the Free Cities and Westeros.

Golden Company were dumped all across the Stormlands by the captains... because storms had scattered the fleet.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It shouldn't be hard for Dany to take KL if she lands there.

 

“To go north, you must journey south, to reach the west you must go east. To go forward you must go back and to touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow”

She is not going to land at King's Landing.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure what warfare there would be? Did Maegor conquer all of Westeros? Or Jaehaerys I? Or Aegon II or Rhaenyra or Aegon III? Nope. They just seized and kept (or lost) the throne.

Ah yes, ripe fruit falls into Daenerys lap with no effort because Mary Sue power...

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

A much shorter distance than from Gulltown to Eastwatch - yet Jon Snow thinks he can feed his people with food from the Vale.

Learn something about sailing, please. And about history in general, for that matter.

Gulltown to Eastwatch is a coastal route. That means ships can easily navigate by sight of the shore, and have available shelter in case of storms.

Not the case for ships crossing the Narrow Sea.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, if the Tyrells can drown KL in food brought up from Highgarden, so could Dany drown Highgarden or Harrenhal or Riverrun in food coming in to KL from Pentos.

The Flatlands are full of farms which produce food. And it stands to reason that similar farmlands exist all around the lands of Essos controlled by the Free Cities. The huge Volantene cities along the Rhoyne, for instance, cannot live off air and water alone.

And? Daenerys will just magically create 100 000 ships necessary to feed Westeros with food from Essos and magically order the seas to calm down so that she can transport that food to Westeros?

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The freedmen companies would be disciplined as well, and the Dothraki, too. They know how to fight, and they also know how to forage.

I mean, sure, some xenophobic or racist peasant might be a tidbit more pissed if his crops are taken by Dothraki, but who cares about his opinion in that world?

Have you been reading A House of Cats by mistake? Dothraki are the furthest thing from disciplined, and they despise anyone who is not a horse nomad. Also LOL at talking about "xenophobic or racist peasant" when Dothraki themselves are xenophobic and racist.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, a proper famine leads to people just dying off starvation. In population centers you can get food riots and the like if the famine is due to things you can blame your rulers for - like, say, if there is a blockade or mismanagement. In other cases you will get riots where people try to steal food from those who (allegedly) hoard it, etc. But you won't get that in villages and small settlements.

But nobody is going to blame Dany for winter or the civil wars taking place before she even arrived in Westeros. And even if that were the case - keeping the rabble out is what castles and cities have walls for. People who are starving won't travel far nor are they capable of threatening or taking castles and cities.

In fact, if people fear Daenerys because of her dragons and barbarians and what not - they are more likely to flee from the regions she might land at or attack rather than go there.

Learn some history, please.

https://theecologist.org/2015/may/13/rebellion-and-hunger-how-drought-and-food-scarcity-are-fanning-flames-war

And sure, people are likely to flee. But Croatia lost 80% of population defending itself from the Ottomans rather than accept foreign rule. So no matter how you look at it, Daenerys' foreign forces are a liability.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin commanded that certain places be burned ... but we actually not see huge portions of the Riverlands being burned.

What we see is more like Thirty Years' War double and triple foraging the same places combined with a deliberate brutalization of the common people. Just take Vargo Hoat's methods as an example. A policy of scorched earth is mentioned but not explicitly shown.

Warfare in the Riverlands didn't last for thirty years. Repeated foraging of the same areas can indeed lead to exhaustion and depopulation, but it takes a long time for that to happen.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

However, the idea that Aegon, Euron, Stannis, whoever else is going to sit on their hands until Dany shows up rather than continuing to brutalize the people and destroy the infrastructure is silly. We see how things are declining further in the Riverlands already, now with Lady Stoneheart's quest for revenge. It is easily imaginable that the Ironborn and the Dornishmen combined will put huge parts of the Reach in the same state the Riverlands are in right now. Aegon's campaign for the throne could destroy the Crownlands, etc.

KL and its surroundings could easily be a sacked ruin by the time Dany shows up. Especially if Euron showed up there first. That is all up in the air. 

Sure. Except Aegon's campaign at least looks like it will be a fairly straightforward one, especially if you are correct and he doesn't actually go and establish control over most of Westeros. Right now, to gain de iure control over Westeros, all he really has to do is defeat Lannister-Tyrell army in the field and then take King's Landing. Cersei had dismissed most of her forces back to Westerlands.

[SeanF]

WRT losses on the Hungarian Marches, and other frontiers between Christians and Muslims, there was a religious dimension to that conflict that will be lacking in this case.  Threatening peoples’ religion is the surest way of motivating them to fight to the death.  Which is why sensible imperialists don’t threaten the local religion.

And, capture in such fights usually meant enslavement.

Dany won’t be stupid enough to force people to convert to R’hllor, or impose special taxes on followers of the Seven or the devsirme.  Nor will she be taking slaves.

Edited May 4 by SeanF

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, SeanF said:

was a religious dimension to that conflict that will be lacking in this case

I wouldn't be so sure of that given lots of R'hlorr followers will likely be part of Daenerys' army, and will view her as a messianic figure. Not to say whether Daenerys herself decides to endorse this, but I doubt whether she would be able clamp down on it effectively. Some people seem to assume Daenerys will just magically be able to instill absolute discipline amongst Dothraki and religious fanatics. While I certainly think she would order them not to plunder and so on I think the effectiveness of such an order would be questionable. The only military force we see that doesn't plunder seems to be The Holy Hundred.

[Aldarion]

12 minutes ago, SeanF said:

WRT losses on the Hungarian Marches, and other frontiers between Christians and Muslims, there was a religious dimension to that conflict that will be lacking in this case.  Threatening peoples’ religion is the surest way of motivating them to fight to the death.  Which is why sensible imperialists don’t threaten the local religion.

 

Considering that Daenerys is receiving major support from Rhollorites and fire priests in particular, and many of people coming with her will be followers of R'h'llor, I expect religious dimension to conflict to be significant.

13 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Dany won’t be stupid enough to force people to convert to R’hllor, or impose special taxes on followers of the Seven or the devsirme.  Nor will she be taking slaves.

Not so certain about that. Even if she herself will not condone any of that, she will not be able to entirely stop her followers from doing it either. Slavery is a big part of Dothraki culture, and Rhollorites are extremely agressive about proselytization.

[frenin]

10 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Slavery is a big part of Dothraki culture

So it is not crossing "the poisoned waters". If there are Dothraki willing to follow Dany to that end, it is obvious that they would have left quite a few of their traditions behind.

How small or how big Rhollorites zeal on Westeros will be remains entirely on how many will accompany her.

If she's bringing them in the thousands sure Fremen mania, but a dozen priests are not going to do nothing Dany does not condone.

[SeanF]

22 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Considering that Daenerys is receiving major support from Rhollorites and fire priests in particular, and many of people coming with her will be followers of R'h'llor, I expect religious dimension to conflict to be significant.

Not so certain about that. Even if she herself will not condone any of that, she will not be able to entirely stop her followers from doing it either. Slavery is a big part of Dothraki culture, and Rhollorites are extremely agressive about proselytization.

Slavery, I doubt, will be much of an issue.  I’d expect the Dothraki to be well-sated with plunder, taken from Eastern masters.  For them, taking slaves is simply a means to acquire luxury goods in exchange.

In matters of religion, I’d expect Daenerys to be like Alexander.

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Because I had heard that idea being thrown around like a lot.

Well, if this were an option then it is going to work logistically. It is a rather long journey from Vaes Dothrak and Slaver's Bay to Westeros, so if Dany were able to feed people on that journey she would also be able to do it once they are in Westeros.

But I actually see no reason for the silly belief that she would drag refugees to the other end of the world? What would be the point of that? Especially in winter and when they are going there to face ice demons and zombies.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

No, they will not. You think that Daenerys is some all-controlling divine entity... when in reality, even people claiming to be such failed at controlling their followers. Unless Daenerys takes a page from Stannis' book and decides to castrate anyone who rapes, she will not be able to stop Dothraki from doing that.

Castrating soldiers for raping strikes me as a rather dangerous thing to do. Stannis is the pretender who is most likely to be slain by his own men, either burned as a sacrifice to R'hllor by the Queen's Men (whose true allegiance was always a dagger at his throat) or simply because the men are done taking shit from him.

The Dothraki would do what Dany commands them in Westeros. They might also rape women, but who would care much about that? Dany might to a point, but if she unleashes them she would be fine with whatever they do or else she wouldn't unleash them.

Also not sure what that issue has to do with a feeding problem. The Dothraki taking food from the peasants is good for the former. They have food, which means full bellies and strong arms, which any hypothetical rebellious peasants will lack.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Simple: Martin used actual historical armies as a model, which resulted in Westerosi armies being far more professional than he perhaps intended them to be.

Nope, it straight out contradicts what George himself writes about the feudal duties the Northmen own the Starks. Robb can't have them assemble at Winterfell and wait indefinitely ... but somehow Doran Martell can? Even with no Martell prince there leading or overseeing them? That makes just no sense.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Uh, that is not how logistics works. Fact that Renly amassed 100 000 men rather indicates that they were not living off the land, especially since his march was noted as being slow. An army living off the land has to be relatively small, and it has to keep moving in order to avoid exhausting local resources.

Neither of which we see with Renly's army.

Rather, he was almost certainly living off supplies that would normally have gone to King's Landing. That was in fact his strategy. And if so, that means he wasn't actually imposing any additional burden onto the food situation.

That should still cause trouble in the Reach. This is not some bureaucratic state monster. Traders do trade in food, so if 'King Renly' takes food for his men without ample monetary compensation the people wouldn't be happy.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

I'm certain they will be around for initial battles. I doubt they will be there for much longer than that.

Their point is to have something to counter Westerosi massive superiority in cavalry.

It is not that they are that many elephants, anyway.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Visenya Targaryen won allegiance of the Vale because lord of the Vale was a child who wanted to ride a dragon. Do you think all lords in Westeros will die and get replaced by children?

Nope, she won the allegiance because she had a huge dragon and threatened to murder the little king and burn his entire castle, garrison, and mother. That is the implication.

And with Addam and Jacaerys Velaryon we see what effects a dragonrider showing up (and making promises) can have on the willingness of various lords to marshal armies. The idea that Dany would not be doing that personally or through her other dragonriders is silly.

In fact, if there is an invasion she will first fly across the sea to check things out and make deals.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And for "real threat of military invasion" she needs military, which is exactly my point.

Well, for the threat it is enough for people to know she has armies across the Narrow Sea and the means to make a landing in their lands. Which will cause problems for the people living there if they are not going to be friendly.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Golden Company were dumped all across the Stormlands by the captains... because storms had scattered the fleet.

And because the captains just decided to dump the soldiers wherever they landed. You are not thick enough to believe that Dany's captains would do the same. Say, a storm scatters her fleet ... then they will do as even fucking Victarion did on his journey to Slaver's Bay: Regroup at a crucial landmark - say, Dragonstone - and proceed from there with sufficient strength to KL.

The notion that 'storms' will suddenly disrupt the Narrow Sea trade when this has never before happened is utter silliness.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

“To go north, you must journey south, to reach the west you must go east. To go forward you must go back and to touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow”

She is not going to land at King's Landing.

LOL, that is just nonsense. George has already said Dany won't go to Asshai. If anything, she will go west to reach the eastern shore of KL, but that's it. 

And I also daresay that Dany is far too bright to draw her strategies from the cryptic comments of from a rather obscure masked sorceress.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Ah yes, ripe fruit falls into Daenerys lap with no effort because Mary Sue power...

Sure enough - since it shouldn't be that hard to conquer one city. She did it before with Astapor and Meereen. Why should KL be different? And who said that the Iron Throne is the endgame here?

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Learn something about sailing, please. And about history in general, for that matter.

Gulltown to Eastwatch is a coastal route. That means ships can easily navigate by sight of the shore, and have available shelter in case of storms.

Not the case for ships crossing the Narrow Sea.

When have you last consulted the actual books? Naval trade in the Narrow Sea goes both along the coastlines as well as back and forth between the cities on either coast. For example, Sam's journey from Eastwatch to Oldtown via Braavos. Or little Varys' mummer tour as a slave boy which included both Westerosi harbors as well as Free Cities.

These people are proper seafarers who have no trouble moving away from the shorelines.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And? Daenerys will just magically create 100 000 ships necessary to feed Westeros with food from Essos and magically order the seas to calm down so that she can transport that food to Westeros?#

LOL, who ever said that? She might bring in sufficient food from Essos to feed her soldiers, her people, and her allies? But all of Westeros? Hardly. Especially not the people who haven't bend the knee. Why should she even try to do that?

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Have you been reading A House of Cats by mistake? Dothraki are the furthest thing from disciplined, and they despise anyone who is not a horse nomad. Also LOL at talking about "xenophobic or racist peasant" when Dothraki themselves are xenophobic and racist.

The point is more that the way things stand right now there might be no maidens left to rape by the time Dany finally shows up. Nor any fighting spirit left in the starving, freezing and brutalized peasantry.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Learn some history, please.

https://theecologist.org/2015/may/13/rebellion-and-hunger-how-drought-and-food-scarcity-are-fanning-flames-war

So now we are comparing climate change effects to - what exactly? Years' long winters in a magical world where freak seasons have so far not fanned the flames of war and migration in the continent we talk about? Why would we do that.

Sure enough - it is a huge question why the hell anyone is actually still living north of the Neck in this shithole world - but people are for 'reasons' ... so we have to accept that and move on.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And sure, people are likely to flee. But Croatia lost 80% of population defending itself from the Ottomans rather than accept foreign rule. So no matter how you look at it, Daenerys' foreign forces are a liability.

Who cares about that? Dany isn't some silly Ottoman invading a foreign country with a different culture and religion. She is the last scion of the rightful dynasty of the country she might be invading, a dynasty who created the unified kingdom these people live in.

Her soldiers will be viewed the way the Golden Company is - or the way Dutch or French mercenaries fighting for this or that pretender in the Wars of the Roses were viewed, not as some kind of barbaric invasion.

There might be some problems in the regions she invades ... but she won't march through the entire continent, so that will be a small issue. 

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Warfare in the Riverlands didn't last for thirty years. Repeated foraging of the same areas can indeed lead to exhaustion and depopulation, but it takes a long time for that to happen.

I didn't mean the time, but the practice. Riverlanders are pissed because they have been foraged and brutalized again and again by various factions, often enough by the same sellswords who switched sides.

But be that as it may - similar things might happen in other regions, too, long before Dany arrives. Euron already has more means to harm the people than any other pretender.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Sure. Except Aegon's campaign at least looks like it will be a fairly straightforward one, especially if you are correct and he doesn't actually go and establish control over most of Westeros. Right now, to gain de iure control over Westeros, all he really has to do is defeat Lannister-Tyrell army in the field and then take King's Landing. Cersei had dismissed most of her forces back to Westerlands.

Sure enough, he should have little trouble seizing the throne ... but then people are likely to march or move against him. And being a young and somewhat foolish lad he might actually think it is his duty to pacify his new Realm personally by way of marching to the Riverlands, the Reach, or wherever else lawlessness and fighting continues.

Euron might easily enough oust him or make things very hard for him, and chances that the Tyrells will just meekly accept being ousted from power is also not very likely. Even if a good portion of the Reach lords declare for Aegon, Highgarden is not likely to follow suit ... and they will continue to control the bulk of the Reach's forces because they are simply way too connected with the other great houses in the Reach to be pushed aside. Also, of course, if Aegon were to marry Arianne, or if the Prince's Pass's Dornish army were to invade the Reach and attack Highgarden on behalf of Aegon while Tommen or Myrcella yet rule in KL peace between Aegon's new regime and the Reach might not exactly be stable.

And the West is never going to accept Aegon as king, either, especially not if Tommen and Myrcella are killed.

This story will continue to be a multifaceted monster, a huge mess of ever shifting alliances and betrayals, not some simple Aegon vs. Dany thing. And as (most likely) the last outsider to enter the game Dany will have her pick of potential allies. She could make deals literally with anyone. Especially if the Others are out in the open already ... but even if not.

Varys' plan was Aegon to be the endgame, the guy who cleans up the mess. But he couldn't wait, so now he entered the fray at the wrong time and without dragons. That won't work.

5 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I wouldn't be so sure of that given lots of R'hlorr followers will likely be part of Daenerys' army, and will view her as a messianic figure. Not to say whether Daenerys herself decides to endorse this, but I doubt whether she would be able clamp down on it effectively. Some people seem to assume Daenerys will just magically be able to instill absolute discipline amongst Dothraki and religious fanatics. While I certainly think she would order them not to plunder and so on I think the effectiveness of such an order would be questionable. The only military force we see that doesn't plunder seems to be The Holy Hundred.

That is rather silly as so far there are literal no followers of R'hllor among Dany's people while there is an ever growing number of R'hllorian converts in the Riverlands. If Dany ended up being joined by thousands of tiger soldiers following R'hllor you might have a point ... but then the game would be off, anyway, as the the tiger soldiers would likely cut through Westeros like a knife through cheese. They are the well-trained, standing army of the second most powerful Free City.

In any case, though, Thoros' converts are likely preparing the ground for Dany's eventual power base in the Riverlands.

Aegon will likely ally with the High Septon and the Faith Militant and they will add fuel to the fire by launching campaigns against the converts in the Riverlands. And perhaps also against followers of the old gods if they can.

Also, of course, R'hllor and red priests will likely be very popular in Westeros soon because their magics and god will actually help to keep the cold and night at bay. There is a reason why the hell Melisandre's entire religion revolves around using fire and shadows to fight against the dark.

4 hours ago, frenin said:

So it is not crossing "the poisoned waters". If there are Dothraki willing to follow Dany to that end, it is obvious that they would have left quite a few of their traditions behind.

Indeed. In context one would imagine that Dany will only take Dothraki she can trust. Men willing to cross the sea and thus abandon the old ways they believed in previously. We got the template for that back in AGoT with the people who witnessed the Mother of Dragons event.

She will likely be technically be able to convince all of them to migrate to Westeros if they accept her as their Stallion person, but it isn't likely she will force them to do this. But she would always have the means to jump on Drogon and fly back to the Dothraki Sea to ensure more Dothraki come if they are needed.

[Craving Peaches]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is rather silly as so far there are literal no followers of R'hllor among Dany's people

Well obviously not at the current time, but there are plenty waiting for her in Volantis.

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

ever growing number of R'hllorian converts in the Riverlands.

A few nightfires are mentioned aside from the Brotherhood without Banners. That's not really that many, and also they are probably practicing the less violent stand learned from Beric, the mainstream one is very much into burning things they don't agree with.

9 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Also, of course, R'hllor and red priests will likely be very popular in Westeros soon because their magics and god

There's no proof R'hlorr or any other deity exists. Magic working is not evidence of that. The magic is fuelled by sacrifice.

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

but then the game would be off, anyway, as the the tiger soldiers would likely cut through Westeros like a knife through cheese. They are the well-trained, standing army of the second most powerful Free City.

I'm sure they're good troops but if they were that good then why did Volantis lose its other territories in the first place?

[Lord Varys]

20 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

A few nightfires are mentioned aside from the Brotherhood without Banners. That's not really that many, and also they are probably practicing the less violent stand learned from Beric, the mainstream one is very much into burning things they don't agree with.

That is not the case. R'hllor is a slave god in Volantis, which means the god of the lowest class who decidedly do not run things and do not burn people left and right. Melisandre is the exception from the rule, not the rule. The main line red priests are like Thoros, Benerro and Moqorro. And Moqorro, for instance, was not exactly the driving force behind Victarion's weirdo double sacrifice to the Drowned God/R'hllor.

The obvious new zealots in charge in Westeros are the new High Septon and his fanatical minions.

20 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

There's no proof R'hlorr or any other deity exists. Magic working is not evidence of that. The magic is fuelled by sacrifice.

Who cares if gods actually exist? George himself said that Thoros is so successful in converting Riverlanders because the people there see him and his god work miracles. Things no other priest/god has done so far in Westeros.

And that success should only grow as hunger and cold start to plague the Riverlands.

20 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I'm sure they're good troops but if they were that good then why did Volantis lose its other territories in the first place?

Because the other Free Cities have a good military, too. But Volantis didn't lose other territories so much. It lost conquered territory in the wake of a war lasting for a hundred years which was ended by an internal revolution.

There is a clear decadence in Volantis regarding the ruling class and the amount of slaves they have. But their slave military is very 

[Craving Peaches]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

do not burn people left and right.

Firstly, I never said just people, I said 'things', I am talking about property as well, of which burning things very much appears the dominant position. Besides all the things that Melisandre is up to, there is more.

Per Salladhor Saan:

Quote

"The red priests have a great temple on Lys. Always they are burning this and burning that, crying out to their R'hllor..."

And they're burning things in Qohor too:

Quote

...and in Qohor followers of the red priests had rioted and tried to burn down the Black Goat. 

Melisandre is not some outlier when it comes to burning things. Thoros/Beric are more likely to be an outlier.

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Firstly, I never said just people, I said 'things', I am talking about property as well, of which burning things very much appears the dominant position. Besides all the things that Melisandre is up to, there is more.

Per Salladhor Saan:

And they're burning things in Qohor too:

Melisandre is not some outlier when it comes to burning things. Thoros/Beric are more likely to be an outlier.

LOL, okay, but people in Westeros are needing fire and warmth in winter, so priests burning things (to get them warm) should be exactly their thing, especially in the Riverlands where the converts are spreading. These people won't have any issue with whatever followers of R'hllor Dany may or may not bring.

[Craving Peaches]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

okay, but people in Westeros are needing fire and warmth in winter, so priests burning things (to get them warm) should be exactly their thing,

Not when it's people or items of cultural significance. The burning of the Seven was not presented as a good thing at all. It's iconoclasm and that quickly gets out of control.

[Aldarion]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Castrating soldiers for raping strikes me as a rather dangerous thing to do. Stannis is the pretender who is most likely to be slain by his own men, either burned as a sacrifice to R'hllor by the Queen's Men (whose true allegiance was always a dagger at his throat) or simply because the men are done taking shit from him.

The Dothraki would do what Dany commands them in Westeros. They might also rape women, but who would care much about that? Dany might to a point, but if she unleashes them she would be fine with whatever they do or else she wouldn't unleash them.

Also not sure what that issue has to do with a feeding problem. The Dothraki taking food from the peasants is good for the former. They have food, which means full bellies and strong arms, which any hypothetical rebellious peasants will lack.

It means that Daenerys will have a massive PR issue on her hands. Not only she will not be able to "feed the people" as you have claimed, but she will even further destroy the already torn apart continent.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nope, it straight out contradicts what George himself writes about the feudal duties the Northmen own the Starks. Robb can't have them assemble at Winterfell and wait indefinitely ... but somehow Doran Martell can? Even with no Martell prince there leading or overseeing them? That makes just no sense.

Robb couldn't have them assemble at Winterfell and wait indefinitely because he had to go and try to rescue his father.

When you think about it, feudal duties in Westeros have to be basically time-unlimited... or at least, option has to exist to extend them. Standard feudal "40 days per year" wouldn't suffice to get anything done.

Either there is no limit, or they get paid past said 40 days. Which still means there is effectively no limit, so long as lord has a source of income. And it also means that they have to be professional soldiers.

And what you are talking about the "feudal duties", that is not "what George himself writes" (though it technically is) but is rather, if it is what I am thinking of, Catelyn's internal thoughts. Which may or may not be correct.

Or else George Martin himself has no clue about the logistics, timeframes or implications of the world he himself had built. There is always that option, I guess.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That should still cause trouble in the Reach. This is not some bureaucratic state monster. Traders do trade in food, so if 'King Renly' takes food for his men without ample monetary compensation the people wouldn't be happy.

Westeros should not be some bureaucratic state monster. But Martin apparently doesn't understand that, else we wouldn't have had armies reaching 100 000 men, or a state covering the entire continent.

Literally everything about the Seven Kingdoms is impossible if we assume that their bureaucracy is truly medieval. But on the flip side, if they do have advanced bureaucracy, they shouldn't need feudalism.

No matter how you turn it, making sense of Westeros is trying to square a round hole. But as is written, Westeros clearly does have a decent bureocracy... we just never see it.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is not that they are that many elephants, anyway.

Eh, you don't need that many elephants against horses that are not used to them. It is the smell that basically drives horses mad.

Horses scare easily... now, they can be trained not to be afraid - even of things such as long pikes and gunpowder weapons... and yes, elephants.

But here is the thing: in order to train horses not to be afraid of something, you have to have said something. And Westeros has no elephants.

So against cavalry, they could very well be sort of a deal breaker.

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nope, she won the allegiance because she had a huge dragon and threatened to murder the little king and burn his entire castle, garrison, and mother. That is the implication.

And with Addam and Jacaerys Velaryon we see what effects a dragonrider showing up (and making promises) can have on the willingness of various lords to marshal armies. The idea that Dany would not be doing that personally or through her other dragonriders is silly.

In fact, if there is an invasion she will first fly across the sea to check things out and make deals.

If it is that easy, then there will be quite soon three pretenders in Westeros. We see than Daenerys has absolutely no control over her dragons, and even if Drogon starts listening to her, there are two other dragons to steal.

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, for the threat it is enough for people to know she has armies across the Narrow Sea and the means to make a landing in their lands. Which will cause problems for the people living there if they are not going to be friendly.

Hardly an effective threat when 1) it is uncertain she can land her armies in Westeros and 2) Westerosi armies are far superior anyway.

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And because the captains just decided to dump the soldiers wherever they landed. You are not thick enough to believe that Dany's captains would do the same. Say, a storm scatters her fleet ... then they will do as even fucking Victarion did on his journey to Slaver's Bay: Regroup at a crucial landmark - say, Dragonstone - and proceed from there with sufficient strength to KL.

The notion that 'storms' will suddenly disrupt the Narrow Sea trade when this has never before happened is utter silliness.

Long Night has never happened since Andals came to Westeros, so expecting it to happen is utter silliness.

And yes, Daenerys' captains may well do the same. Sure, they have the duty to transport troops. But their primary duty is to preserve their own ships. If storms make landings difficult, they will dump troops they are carrying as quickly as possible and wherever possible.

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And I also daresay that Dany is far too bright to draw her strategies from the cryptic comments of from a rather obscure masked sorceress.

I daresay she is not. Or she would not be thinking about Quaithe's prophecies every time something comes up.

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure enough - since it shouldn't be that hard to conquer one city. She did it before with Astapor and Meereen. Why should KL be different? And who said that the Iron Throne is the endgame here?

King's Landing is well-fortified and more importantly, does not have a massive slave population just waiting to be liberated and a military that would lose a war against Neanderthals.

Even King's Landing's Gold Cloaks are likely better than anything existing in Essos outside Yi Ti.

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

When have you last consulted the actual books? Naval trade in the Narrow Sea goes both along the coastlines as well as back and forth between the cities on either coast. For example, Sam's journey from Eastwatch to Oldtown via Braavos. Or little Varys' mummer tour as a slave boy which included both Westerosi harbors as well as Free Cities.

These people are proper seafarers who have no trouble moving away from the shorelines.

And again, that is all fine and dandy during summer.

Not necessarily during the Long Night.

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

LOL, who ever said that? She might bring in sufficient food from Essos to feed her soldiers, her people, and her allies? But all of Westeros? Hardly. Especially not the people who haven't bend the knee. Why should she even try to do that?

 

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The point is more that the way things stand right now there might be no maidens left to rape by the time Dany finally shows up. Nor any fighting spirit left in the starving, freezing and brutalized peasantry.

By the way you are talking, Daenerys doesn't need to bother showing up at all because everybody will be dead anyway...

And you don't need peasants to have "fighting spirit". Their entire role is to provide food.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Who cares about that? Dany isn't some silly Ottoman invading a foreign country with a different culture and religion. She is the last scion of the rightful dynasty of the country she might be invading, a dynasty who created the unified kingdom these people live in.

Her soldiers will be viewed the way the Golden Company is - or the way Dutch or French mercenaries fighting for this or that pretender in the Wars of the Roses were viewed, not as some kind of barbaric invasion.

There might be some problems in the regions she invades ... but she won't march through the entire continent, so that will be a small issue. 

And she is bringing a bunch of foreign barbarians and a psychotic, extremely agressive foreign religion with her.

Yeah, no comparison with Ottomans at all. </sarcasm>

Golden Company are Westerosi exiles. They are not foreigners. But Tiger Soldiers, Essosi slaves, Unsullied will be foreigners... and Dothraki are not just foreigners but also barbarians, no better than Huns or Mongols.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure enough, he should have little trouble seizing the throne ... but then people are likely to march or move against him. And being a young and somewhat foolish lad he might actually think it is his duty to pacify his new Realm personally by way of marching to the Riverlands, the Reach, or wherever else lawlessness and fighting continues.

Euron might easily enough oust him or make things very hard for him, and chances that the Tyrells will just meekly accept being ousted from power is also not very likely. Even if a good portion of the Reach lords declare for Aegon, Highgarden is not likely to follow suit ... and they will continue to control the bulk of the Reach's forces because they are simply way too connected with the other great houses in the Reach to be pushed aside. Also, of course, if Aegon were to marry Arianne, or if the Prince's Pass's Dornish army were to invade the Reach and attack Highgarden on behalf of Aegon while Tommen or Myrcella yet rule in KL peace between Aegon's new regime and the Reach might not exactly be stable.

And the West is never going to accept Aegon as king, either, especially not if Tommen and Myrcella are killed.

This story will continue to be a multifaceted monster, a huge mess of ever shifting alliances and betrayals, not some simple Aegon vs. Dany thing. And as (most likely) the last outsider to enter the game Dany will have her pick of potential allies. She could make deals literally with anyone. Especially if the Others are out in the open already ... but even if not.

Varys' plan was Aegon to be the endgame, the guy who cleans up the mess. But he couldn't wait, so now he entered the fray at the wrong time and without dragons. That won't work.

Tyrells are already hedging their bets. They are as likely to join him as anything else. But sure, anything could happen there.

Westerlands don't exactly have that much fighting power left - if my calculations are correct, they had lost half their fighting strength so far.

But yeah, you are overall correct. Except, nobody is cleaning up the mess that Westeros is right now. No single person can do it, until Others invade and force the peace.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is rather silly as so far there are literal no followers of R'hllor among Dany's people while there is an ever growing number of R'hllorian converts in the Riverlands. If Dany ended up being joined by thousands of tiger soldiers following R'hllor you might have a point ... but then the game would be off, anyway, as the the tiger soldiers would likely cut through Westeros like a knife through cheese. They are the well-trained, standing army of the second most powerful Free City.

In any case, though, Thoros' converts are likely preparing the ground for Dany's eventual power base in the Riverlands.

Aegon will likely ally with the High Septon and the Faith Militant and they will add fuel to the fire by launching campaigns against the converts in the Riverlands. And perhaps also against followers of the old gods if they can.

Also, of course, R'hllor and red priests will likely be very popular in Westeros soon because their magics and god will actually help to keep the cold and night at bay. There is a reason why the hell Melisandre's entire religion revolves around using fire and shadows to fight against the dark.

There are many Rhollorites among the very Tiger Soldiers who likely will join Daenerys.

But Tiger Soldiers aren't cutting through anything in Westeros. They may be top of the line for Essosi forces, but best of the best of Essos is still far inferior to average Westerosi armies that it isn't even close.

"Standing army" is not an automatic win button, you know... I won't repeat myself, so:

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2024/01/26/social-background-of-the-army-organization/

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2024/01/26/building-a-fantasy-army-part-5-recruitment/

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2024/01/14/26-modern-misconceptions-about-medieval-warfare/

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/proof-that-westerosi-armies-are-professionals/

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/military-of-westeros-1-organization-and-manpower/

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/military-of-westeros-2-tactics/

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/military-of-westeros-3-weapons-and-equipment/

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/military-of-westeros-4-conclusions-and-implications/

And if the Faith launches campaigns against Rhollor converts, well... that will probably be one of the best things they can do, considering the nature of Rhollorite religion!

Fire is not good here... whether ice wins or fire wins, Westeros is doomed. Both of those need to go for Westeros to prosper.

At any rate, you are quite overestimating numbers of Rhollorite converts.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Not when it's people or items of cultural significance. The burning of the Seven was not presented as a good thing at all. It's iconoclasm and that quickly gets out of control.

That is Stannis' problem, not that of the red priests in general. And even Melisandre got quite a few genuine converts, among Stannis' people, the watchmen, and even some wildlings.

In the Free Cities the red priests are obviously not burning other gods or holy objects or else there would be real trouble up to civil war there.

In fact, the only theocracies we know were not created by followers of R'hllor but in Lorath, Norvos, and Qohor.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

It means that Daenerys will have a massive PR issue on her hands. Not only she will not be able to "feed the people" as you have claimed, but she will even further destroy the already torn apart continent.

I didn't claim she will 'feed the people', I said she shouldn't have problems feeding her people, especially her armies. Taking food from the Westerosi should actually be an advantage as it will weaken (potential) enemies while strengthening her forces.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Robb couldn't have them assemble at Winterfell and wait indefinitely because he had to go and try to rescue his father.

When you think about it, feudal duties in Westeros have to be basically time-unlimited... or at least, option has to exist to extend them. Standard feudal "40 days per year" wouldn't suffice to get anything done.

Either there is no limit, or they get paid past said 40 days. Which still means there is effectively no limit, so long as lord has a source of income. And it also means that they have to be professional soldiers.

And what you are talking about the "feudal duties", that is not "what George himself writes" (though it technically is) but is rather, if it is what I am thinking of, Catelyn's internal thoughts. Which may or may not be correct.

Or else George Martin himself has no clue about the logistics, timeframes or implications of the world he himself had built. There is always that option, I guess.

Not sure you even remember what I'm talking about here. In AGoT it is clear that Robb has to march soon as his bannermen won't wait indefinitely at Winterfell, independent from the goal of the campaign.

And I compared that to the Dornish situation to illustrate that George gives shit about the logistics of feeding armies - or even the minutiae of armies themselves. In a book series where 20,000 men can camp in a barren mountain pass environment for years without having problem feeding themselves the chances that such logistics come up as a significant plot point later are very low. George would make a fool of himself if one character/army had to struggle with such issues while they are literally non-existent for others.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Westeros should not be some bureaucratic state monster. But Martin apparently doesn't understand that, else we wouldn't have had armies reaching 100 000 men, or a state covering the entire continent.

Literally everything about the Seven Kingdoms is impossible if we assume that their bureaucracy is truly medieval. But on the flip side, if they do have advanced bureaucracy, they shouldn't need feudalism.

No matter how you turn it, making sense of Westeros is trying to square a round hole. But as is written, Westeros clearly does have a decent bureocracy... we just never see it.

What we do know is that people buy and sell food, so unless Renly was stealing food from the people he expected to cheer him on he would have to buy the food from them. Which he could, to a point, with Tyrell money and through the Tyrells own food stores. But a 100,000 men plus their retinues and hangers-on, etc. do march through farmland and fields. They destroy crops that would have been due in the next harvest, etc. This whole campaign thing should have been a problem, especially on this scale. But it wasn't much of an issue.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Eh, you don't need that many elephants against horses that are not used to them. It is the smell that basically drives horses mad.

Horses scare easily... now, they can be trained not to be afraid - even of things such as long pikes and gunpowder weapons... and yes, elephants.

But here is the thing: in order to train horses not to be afraid of something, you have to have said something. And Westeros has no elephants.

So against cavalry, they could very well be sort of a deal breaker.

My point more was that I really don't expect them to die quickly. Earlier attempts to bring elephants to Westeros failed because they died on the ships (Corlys' elephants, for instance), but Harry apparently got some for the Golden Company earlier and they were robust enough to make it to Westeros.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

If it is that easy, then there will be quite soon three pretenders in Westeros. We see than Daenerys has absolutely no control over her dragons, and even if Drogon starts listening to her, there are two other dragons to steal.

We can also speculate that Dany is going to arrive in Westeros as a blind cripple as lots and lots of stuff can happen on the way. But so far the dragons are in her control or kind of in the grasp of people who want to work with her (which goes for Victarion, Brown Ben, and Tyrion), so the idea that her determined enemies will be dragonriders is pretty outlandish at this point.

It is like insisting Cersei is going to ally with Dany for some reason.

And Drogon is now pretty much under Dany's control. She lacks a saddle and a whip, but it shouldn't be that hard to overcome that issue.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Hardly an effective threat when 1) it is uncertain she can land her armies in Westeros and 2) Westerosi armies are far superior anyway.

You cannot really put yourself in the shoes of a Westerosi nobleman, right? They do not think like that, especially if they are dealing with a Targaryen dragonrider.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Long Night has never happened since Andals came to Westeros, so expecting it to happen is utter silliness.

And yes, Daenerys' captains may well do the same. Sure, they have the duty to transport troops. But their primary duty is to preserve their own ships. If storms make landings difficult, they will dump troops they are carrying as quickly as possible and wherever possible.

Now you are turning around things again. Nobody dropped off Golden Company men on Tarth or Estermont because storms forced them to do this. During a storm you wouldn't even try to land on an unknown shore. They were dumped there because the ships were scattered and the captains didn't care where they were getting rid of their human cargo.

Dany's captains won't be people having 'a duty to their ships' but a duty to their queen and her cause. Which would be a successful invasion. Not the preservation of a couple of ships at the expense of the queen's main objective.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

I daresay she is not. Or she would not be thinking about Quaithe's prophecies every time something comes up.

That silly lines came up quite some time ago in the story. Did Dany go south from Astapor to reach Meereen or Yunkai? Did she fly south to reach the Dothraki Sea in the north?

And it is you who goes with the notion Dany will go to Westeros for conquest, to take the Iron Throne. If that were indeed the main goal it would be nonsense to not land at KL and take it. It would be utter stupidity to land somewhere else and march there through ice and snow.

It is also quite ridiculous to assume she would do anything else as every succession or civil war for the Iron Throne so far involved the challenging power to march against KL. The Dance of the Dragons was basically a war between Dragonstone and KL.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

King's Landing is well-fortified and more importantly, does not have a massive slave population just waiting to be liberated and a military that would lose a war against Neanderthals.

It has a decent wall and gates, but they can be breached easily enough. And might already be breached by some other pretender before Dany even shows up.

And chances are very good that a good portion of the Kingslanders - perhaps even the majority - might prefer the dragonrider(s) overheard to the dragonless fake boy who might or might not be in the city by that time.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Even King's Landing's Gold Cloaks are likely better than anything existing in Essos outside Yi Ti.

LOL, what?

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

And again, that is all fine and dandy during summer.

Not necessarily during the Long Night.

Oh, so now we will have Long Nights magical storms to hinder Dany's invasion or trade across the Narrow Sea in general, but not wights or Others in Westeros at the same time causing (some/many) people there to consider allying with the vast armada and the dragons of the Dragon Queen? Right.

You cannot have both.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

 

By the way you are talking, Daenerys doesn't need to bother showing up at all because everybody will be dead anyway...

And you don't need peasants to have "fighting spirit". Their entire role is to provide food.

Not dead yet, but worn down to the point that they don't care about the propaganda you want them to fall for. And, of course, if there is anti-Dany propaganda then it will be aimed at the people, including peasants.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

And she is bringing a bunch of foreign barbarians and a psychotic, extremely agressive foreign religion with her.

That is obviously a huge exaggeration.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Yeah, no comparison with Ottomans at all. </sarcasm>

LOL, Daenerys is a Targaryen. She is no foreigner. Christian nobility like the Habsburger would never intermarry with the Ottomans, but obviously every nobleman in Westeros would like Daenerys Targaryen as a wife or sister- or daughter-in-law.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Golden Company are Westerosi exiles. They are not foreigners. But Tiger Soldiers, Essosi slaves, Unsullied will be foreigners... and Dothraki are not just foreigners but also barbarians, no better than Huns or Mongols.

The Mongols were pretty cool, actually. And of course Black Balaq and Garys Edoryen and Lysono Maar are foreigners, just as Strickland and those self-styled Strongs and Coles and Mudds are scum, just as the bastards among them are.

These people won't be welcomed with open arms in Westeros, especially if they want lands and titles and castles. 

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Tyrells are already hedging their bets. They are as likely to join him as anything else. But sure, anything could happen there.

Mace has all his money on Tommen.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Westerlands don't exactly have that much fighting power left - if my calculations are correct, they had lost half their fighting strength so far.

I told you that those are wrong. And whatever they have left is not going to join Aegon, that much is clear. They might end up joining Dany or they might help Euron bring Aegon down.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

But yeah, you are overall correct. Except, nobody is cleaning up the mess that Westeros is right now. No single person can do it, until Others invade and force the peace.

But as I said - Aegon might very well think it is his job to pacify the Realm, to carry the war to Euron, Stannis, the Riverlands and wherever else there is trouble yet. And that will likely cost him dearly as winter has come.

The lad will be drunk with power and victory if he wins the Iron Throne very quickly and easily.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

There are many Rhollorites among the very Tiger Soldiers who likely will join Daenerys.

But Tiger Soldiers aren't cutting through anything in Westeros. They may be top of the line for Essosi forces, but best of the best of Essos is still far inferior to average Westerosi armies that it isn't even close.

"Standing army" is not an automatic win button, you know... I won't repeat myself, so:

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2024/01/26/social-background-of-the-army-organization/

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2024/01/26/building-a-fantasy-army-part-5-recruitment/

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2024/01/14/26-modern-misconceptions-about-medieval-warfare/

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/proof-that-westerosi-armies-are-professionals/

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/military-of-westeros-1-organization-and-manpower/

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/military-of-westeros-2-tactics/

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/military-of-westeros-3-weapons-and-equipment/

https://fantasyview.wordpress.com/2023/11/09/military-of-westeros-4-conclusions-and-implications/

Since there are literally no sources on the effectiveness of the Volantene soldiers it makes no sense to even try to speculate about that. The crucial thing about the tiger soldiers is that they are many, fanatical followers of R'hllor whose High Priest tells them Dany is their savior/living god, and they were a powerful tool in Volantis' earlier wars - which they waged with and against the free companies in the Disputed Lands and elsewhere.

They would be as professional as the Golden Company.

I mean, you do notice that the triarchs are merely mildly concerned by the presence of the Golden Company in their lands, right? They don't think Volantis will fall in a fortnight to 10,000 professional Westerosi-style sellswords. That means they have reason to believe that they could crush the Golden Company easily enough.

We also have Victarion pissing his pants once he learns that the Volantenes are on their way to Dany, too. He is a moron, but if he knows anything that how to guess and assess the strength of fighting men. He knows the Iron Fleet under his command can't stand against them.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

And if the Faith launches campaigns against Rhollor converts, well... that will probably be one of the best things they can do, considering the nature of Rhollorite religion!

Feels like you are not exactly the most religiously tolerant person on the planet. R'hllor magic is real, the Seven are impotent phantoms.

The Faith Militant and the new High Septon are another dead end, another distraction leading the people down the wrong path.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Fire is not good here... whether ice wins or fire wins, Westeros is doomed. Both of those need to go for Westeros to prosper.

That is a separate issue, as this is the World of Ice and Fire, so neither is going to go away. And of course fire will be a bare necessity in winter. This is a story about a fight of fire and warmth and life against ice, cold, and death. It is people plus three dragons against ice demons and their undead thralls. A very simple equation in the end.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

At any rate, you are quite overestimating numbers of Rhollorite converts.

They are growing. Dany won't arrive in Westeros tomorrow. And chances are great that people will fall over themselves to convert to Thoros' god once the resurrection of 'Catelyn Stark' is a public fact and her forces actually put down the Lannisters and Freys in the Riverlands.

Beric already had a lot of success in the underground, but the magical and miracle aspect of this whole movement will only gain traction once the effects are out in the open. Death is not necessary the end in this world. People can come back. And even if they are strange or somewhat twisted, nine of ten people will prefer such a resurrected loved one to a dead and cold corpse.

[Craving Peaches]

27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is Stannis' problem, not that of the red priests in general.

I've just given you two quotes which show that more R'hlorr followers than Stannis's lot are engaging in iconoclasm. Again:

Quote

...and in Qohor followers of the red priests had rioted and tried to burn down the Black Goat.

Textbook example of iconoclasm, trying to burn down other people's religious objects. Furthermore, the comment Salladhor makes to Davos:

Quote

"The red priests have a great temple on Lys. Always they are burning this and burning that, crying out to their R'hllor...

Is specifically in relation to a conversation between him and Davos where they are discussing the burning of the Seven, hence it alludes to more iconoclasm.

So not only do we have Melisandre burning statues of the Seven and Weirwoods, we have R'hlorr followers in Qohor trying to burn down the patron god of the city and red priests in Lys burning all sorts. Clearly, iconoclasm is standard practice for the Red Faith, or at least not limited to Melisandre as you appear to be suggesting. It is widespread enough that it happens in multiple locations with varying levels of frequency.

Edited May 5 by Craving Peaches

[Ring3r]

On 4/26/2024 at 1:14 PM, Craving Peaches said:

This is a massive issue for her potential invasion and I don't really see how she can resolve it.

1. There is not enough food left in Westeros for Daenerys to supply her army via foraging/using reserves. It is pointed out numerous times that the food supplies remaining in Westeros are inadequate to feed everyone already there, so there is no way they can feed even more people coming later. This issue will be compounded by the size of the army Daenerys is aiming to bring. Not to mention all the difficulties that come with a regular winter. Then we have to factor in that it will probably be supernaturally cold, icy etc.

2. Daenerys cannot just ship food from Essos in as some people have suggested. First of all, there is a food shortage in all the territories she currently controls as well. Secondly, even is we assume she takes control of territories that have food/are growing food, she cannot just start taking food from there to feed a large army without depriving people living there of food, not to mention the logistics involved in shipping it over. And unless the army is near a port it will then need to be transported overland in the winter conditions etc.

3. How she is supposed to feed all the horses the Dothraki will be bringing? Where is the fodder going to come from?

So it looks like either Daenerys will have to bring a much smaller army, or her army will starve, or she'll have to make loads of other people starve so her army doesn't starve.

She's going to do it the exact same way every other army has had to - plunder the countryside, inducing mass famine in the smallfolk. 

If Faegon is able to very quickly take control of King's Landing, as seems likely, he's going to be massively popular in that he stops the wars temporarily, particularly if the North turns their full attention to the Others.  We know from Dany's vision that the Mummer's Dragon is going to be very popular with the people.

Dany's going to face mass hatred by the smallfolk of Westeros because she's bringing a huge foreign army and will re-ignite the wars, further depleting the smallfolk's stores immediately prior to a terrible winter.  I think that might be the final straw that causes her to do something drastic.....probably not exactly the same as in the show, but her repeated attempts at ruling have either resulted in disaster (astapor) or revolt (mereen.)  Having the smallfolk of Westeros hate her is going to severely disturb her mental calm.....particularly if it occurs after she helps save the world from the Others and Euron and loses a dragon to each.  I do think she's going to go mad with grief.....it's just going to be set-up a lot better than the show. 

Perhaps she won't even be responsible for the destruction personally...if she enters a deep despair over the people's reaction to her....her link with Drogon might cause him to go on a rampage against what he percieves as the source of her pain - the people.  She may lose control of him.

Edited May 5 by Ring3r

[A Ghost of Someone]

By the time Dany gets to Westeros, the food stockpiles in the Vale will either be part of the deal to join F-Aegon  or local. the horses can always grace, they also eat horses but as usual, the smallfolk will bare the brunt of it and have what little they have to eat, taken from them and worse with the Dothraki coming to town, especially the women. 

Edited May 5 by A Ghost of Someone

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Ring3r said:

in that he stops the wars temporarily,

Don't know how's that possible with the Lannisters and Euron still running amok and the North being its own separate theater.

Young G ascension will not stop any wars, unless plot, it'd simply mean new alliances are made, whatever the Riverlands are still burning either way.

I simply do not know why people sincerely believe Aegon has the capability to solve Westeros' huge problems by himself.