So what is this "Meereenese knot" Martin is referring to on his "not a blog"

[Edward the Great]

He decides to join the watch, to try to escape from the watch, to accept Halfhand's offer and he decides not to kill the old man.

He decides to spare Ygritte, an idealistic move that could have backfired.

He decides to send Manse's child away so that Mel can't give him to the flames.

He has his men shoot Mance Rayder just as Mel starts to burn him

[Padraig]

Yes Jon is tempted by the Winterfell offer but he is elected Lord Commander before he can make a decision either way. When does Jon consciously make a decision?

This is not true, as we discussed earlier. Jon had choosen to stay in the NW before he was elected LCotNW. Do you remember the scene where he gets re-acquainted with Ghost? That's when he realises that Winterfell isn't for him.

I do agree that he is more reactive than proactive. But as you say, he is too junior in the first 3 books to be going around driving forward the plot.

Cruella, Jon did agree to kill Halfhand but did you expect him to come up with the idea on his own? I'm not sure of your complaint there. Compare that death with the old man, which he found a lot more difficult to rationalise. Similarly, it wouldn't make sense for him to jump into bed with Ygritte without any urging. The whole point is that breaking vows is supposed to be difficult.

You could argue that he had it easy. But he was dead if he hadn't escaped the Wildings when he did. He did lose Ygritte. He had to stand by while his family died one by one. He did get branded as a turncloak. He did have to kill a friend. Fair enough if you want things to be even grimmer for him. OTOH, at some stage it might get OTT. Does he have to be as riddled with bad luck as Robb was?

If he actually did betray his vows for his family, it would again paint him in somewhat negative light. But that would be something.

You don't think he gains any credit for putting his vows ahead of helping his family?

[Werthead]

I've heard that GRRM did have plans to send Dani to Asshai, and indeed travel off the EAstern coast of ASshai to land on the East coast of Westeros rather than travel back West to get there.

It was a popular fan theory for a while, but certainly GRRM never said anything outside of the novels backing up the claim. The biggest problem with this theory is that the planet is bigger than Earth, so the distance from Asshai to Westeros going east across the planet's equivalent of the Pacific (which is likely even bigger than our Pacific Ocean) would be astronomically huge. Remembering that Westeros' level of technology is somewhere around the 13th Century, and recalling that Columbus had a good 200-odd years of superior naval technology plus a much smaller distance to cross, we can conclude that crossing the planet's eastern ocean and coming on Westeros from the west is highly unlikely to be realistic. Given that Columbus' ships were running out of supplies when they reached the West Indies after crossing the modestly-sized Atlantic, there is no way Dany's force would be able to carry enough food to get them home going east across the oceans.

In addition, there is a vague hint in AFFC that the Stepstones actually extend south of Dorne, which I took to mean that the coast of the Free Cities may bulge out south of Westeros (the Disputed Lands?) before retreating back to the east (where Volantis is), so Dany's fleet (assuming she returns by sea) would be fairly close to the west coast of Westeros anyway if she chose to land there.

But given the geopolitical situation in Westeros, either a direct assault on King's Landing itself or a landing in Dorne and proceeding overland is the more logical course of action.

Although, the five year gap was probably going to have Dani either in Asshai or on her way, or whatever and had to be scrapped. Or retooled. Dani even acknowledges at one point she is supposed to go to Asshai. The knot is most likely the smooth exit (plot-wise) from Mereen, the skipping(?) of Asshai, and the interweaving of POVs in a game-changing scene, all the while having to sync up with Feast For Crows timelines. Ugh. It makes me overwelmed. It will be cool to read, tho. I bet it really is a bitch to write, let alone write well and gripping.

The pre-five-year-gap situation is quite clear to me that Daenerys would stay in Meereen and rule the city for five years, and then would lose control of the situation or her suitors would turn up or whatever else gets her moving back to Westeros. Dany going to Asshai for five years doesn't seem to make sense to me, and there is no reason for her to go there beyond Quaithe's vague prophecies. It may also be that Quaithe's prophecy has already been fulfilled: Dany went east (from the Free Cities to the Dothraki Sea to the Red Waste to Qarth) to go west (to Slaver's Bay). Or 'someone' has already gone to Asshai and come back already (whoever got Dany's eggs for Illyrio, assuming they're not the last Westerosi eggs as evidence now heavily suggests).

[Jackals Justice]

It was a popular fan theory for a while, but certainly GRRM never said anything outside of the novels backing up the claim. The biggest problem with this theory is that the planet is bigger than Earth, so the distance from Asshai to Westeros going east across the planet's equivalent of the Pacific (which is likely even bigger than our Pacific Ocean) would be astronomically huge. Remembering that Westeros' level of technology is somewhere around the 13th Century, and recalling that Columbus had a good 200-odd years of superior naval technology plus a much smaller distance to cross, we can conclude that crossing the planet's eastern ocean and coming on Westeros from the west is highly unlikely to be realistic. Given that Columbus' ships were running out of supplies when they reached the West Indies after crossing the modestly-sized Atlantic, there is no way Dany's force would be able to carry enough food to get them home going east across the oceans.

In addition, there is a vague hint in AFFC that the Stepstones actually extend south of Dorne, which I took to mean that the coast of the Free Cities may bulge out south of Westeros (the Disputed Lands?) before retreating back to the east (where Volantis is), so Dany's fleet (assuming she returns by sea) would be fairly close to the west coast of Westeros anyway if she chose to land there.

But given the geopolitical situation in Westeros, either a direct assault on King's Landing itself or a landing in Dorne and proceeding overland is the more logical course of action.

The pre-five-year-gap situation is quite clear to me that Daenerys would stay in Meereen and rule the city for five years, and then would lose control of the situation or her suitors would turn up or whatever else gets her moving back to Westeros. Dany going to Asshai for five years doesn't seem to make sense to me, and there is no reason for her to go there beyond Quaithe's vague prophecies. It may also be that Quaithe's prophecy has already been fulfilled: Dany went east (from the Free Cities to the Dothraki Sea to the Red Waste to Qarth) to go west (to Slaver's Bay). Or 'someone' has already gone to Asshai and come back already (whoever got Dany's eggs for Illyrio, assuming they're not the last Westerosi eggs as evidence now heavily suggests).

I don't see her losing control of Mereene. The whole point of her staying there was to learn how to rule, it wouldn't bode well if after spending half a decade there she then lost the city, or anything along those lines. But of course something will have to spur her to move, she won't simply spend 5 years there and one day decide she's ready.

I'd prefer she landed in Dorne, or anywhere aside from Kings landing. Allow the foreboding to build and such. But with Cercei currently imprisoned.. it wouldn't be as fun to make kings landing squirm. Who exactly is to oppose her now anyway? The majority of Westeros is in semi ruin, winter has come, grain stores are non existent. It's possible she may go to the battle against the others without her ever needing to contend for the throne.

[Alexia]

Similarly, it wouldn't make sense for him to jump into bed with Ygritte without any urging. The whole point is that breaking vows is supposed to be difficult.

Really? A virgin confronted with a reasonably good looking girl who wants him and it takes urging?

Sorry, the angst WRT Ygritte didn't ring true to me at all and was one of the more annoying passages in Jon's chapters.

[Lady Blackfish]

I don't hate Ygritte per se, but for me it was kind of obvious from the start that, oh, of course Jon would have to turn away from her, he's the Reluctant Hero, and he will be rewarded for it by a plot point soon after. I dunno, I don't mind that Jon is a good guy, I don't mind that he's a teenager and sometimes acts like one (actually those are the times that I like him best), but its the reluctance part of his archetype that feels narmy to me.

[shadow catlady]

I see your point about Jon always being so reluctant, Lady Blackfish. But that aside, did anyone else read Jon's reluctance with Ygritte as sexual shyness/ insecurity, instead of just a vow-breaking issue? She was older, aggressive, had foreign ideas about rights of the common people, and she was "clearly no maid." I thought he was just intimidated.

[Jackals Justice]

Really? A virgin confronted with a reasonably good looking girl who wants him and it takes urging?

Sorry, the angst WRT Ygritte didn't ring true to me at all and was one of the more annoying passages in Jon's chapters.

It's the Stark thing. Do you recall how annoyingly honorable Ned was in AGOT... Jon is his.. "father's son"

[Lady Blackfish]

shadow_catlady, I think all that was there, the regular teenager's first time part as well as the man of heavy obligations and duties part. My only thing was that I never really felt that it was ever going to be a choice, there was no suspense. I empathized with Jon enough, but it was kind of a given to me how it would end up. And to me, GRRM went to that well a little too often with Jon, the angst about his personal desires, and every time Jon would eventually get a reward despite never dirtying himself with personal desire or ambition. It just got predictable and cloying to me, maybe a combination of frequency and -- I don't know, just tipping his hand too early that Jon was going to be the noble selfless hero (unless you think all of this is set-up ...)

[Alexia]

ut that aside, did anyone else read Jon's reluctance with Ygritte as sexual shyness/ insecurity, instead of just a vow-breaking issue?

I'll try to read it next time with that in mind - its a far less annoying interpretation.

It's the Stark thing. Do you recall how annoyingly honorable Ned was in AGOT... Jon is his.. "father's son"

Ned annoyed me too. ;)

[Werthead]

I don't see her losing control of Mereene. The whole point of her staying there was to learn how to rule, it wouldn't bode well if after spending half a decade there she then lost the city, or anything along those lines. But of course something will have to spur her to move, she won't simply spend 5 years there and one day decide she's ready.

I agree. I think she gets a handle on how to control the city, but is then kidnapped by Victarion or agrees to marry Quentyn or is talked into it by Marwyn and Barristan or some other combination of events. However, she needs to get her arse in gear. One of my personal expectations for ADWD is that Dany is headed home by its end, even if she doesn't leave Meereen until the final page. If she's still prevaricating at the end or heading in another direction, I think the chances of ASoIaF being done in seven books will evaporate entirely.

I'd prefer she landed in Dorne, or anywhere aside from Kings landing. Allow the foreboding to build and such. But with Cercei currently imprisoned.. it wouldn't be as fun to make kings landing squirm. Who exactly is to oppose her now anyway? The majority of Westeros is in semi ruin, winter has come, grain stores are non existent. It's possible she may go to the battle against the others without her ever needing to contend for the throne.

I'm surprised people forget about Cersei's prophecy that she would only be supplanted by a queen younger and more beautiful than herself, and that clearly being Dany and not Margaery. For me, this suggests that the Tyrells will storm King's Landing from the south to rescue Margaery, possibly with the help of Kevan and the Lannisters. Cersei being arrested as well as Margaery allows Cersei to spin the story that the Faith turned on both her and Margaery together, and enables them to be rescued together rather than it being a case of Cersei trying to tear down Margaery as an enemy (which would trigger a Lannister-Tyrell war the Tyrells would win rather easily). A considerably reduced-in-power and possibly far more hated by the smallfolk Cersei could then return to the role of Queen Regent just in time to face Daenerys' arrival. I do agree that having Daenerys land in Dorne and march up to King's Landing is a dramatic way of doing things, but also a time-consuming one (since we'd have Dany POV chapters in Dorne, in the Stormlands etc). OTOH, she could just leave Meereen at the end of ADWD and land in King's Landing halfway through TWoW whilst a Dornish army marches up the coast to support her rather more easily.

[Alexia]

Werthead, the theme of the story is that prophecies are never for sure. Look at the Stallion Who Mounts the World (horrible visual, there).

Anyway, I think Cersei has lost her Regency - but I also think that Sansa, not Dany, is the more beautiful queen who will throw her down. Dany will go North, not Dorne. She and her dragons are needed to fight the Others.

[Padraig]

I see your point about Jon always being so reluctant, Lady Blackfish. But that aside, did anyone else read Jon's reluctance with Ygritte as sexual shyness/ insecurity, instead of just a vow-breaking issue? She was older, aggressive, had foreign ideas about rights of the common people, and she was "clearly no maid." I thought he was just intimidated.

Not primarily no. Partly, that's possible.

I'd agree with Jackal about it been a Stark thing.

And its fair enough on the reluctant thing. Jon needed a bit of luck or he would be dead like Ned. :P

[Jackals Justice]

Werthead, the theme of the story is that prophecies are never for sure. Look at the Stallion Who Mounts the World (horrible visual, there).

Anyway, I think Cersei has lost her Regency - but I also think that Sansa, not Dany, is the more beautiful queen who will throw her down. Dany will go North, not Dorne. She and her dragons are needed to fight the Others.

I like this idea. King littleFinger and Queen Sansa :D

But I don't think Cersei is done yet, The younger and more beautiful Queen has not been made known yet.

And it would seem, at least for now that perhaps Margarey and Cersei's fates are intertwined. Mace will not allow his daughter to rot in jail, and part of keeping her position may involve appeasing Cersei, at least for a time. Although it depends on how quickly Cersei lands on her feet, if she is released.

You can bet that high septon will find the flames though.

However, she needs to get her arse in gear. One of my personal expectations for ADWD is that Dany is headed home by its end, even if she doesn't leave Meereen until the final page.

This is my main problem with the way AFFC/ADWD was handled. We know that nothing too world changing has happened to the other characters, at least not until the very end of ADWD. Else word would have reached at least kings landing by the end of AFFC. Which means as you say, Dany will mostlike be embarking on her journey to Westros at the end of ADWD. But how exactly does that fit? If Victarion left for Mereene near the end of AFFC, as did the archmaester, it would seem to fit that they will be reaching her before she reaches Westros. Why have them go at all if they entirely miss Dany.

I'm surprised people forget about Cersei's prophecy that she would only be supplanted by a queen younger and more beautiful than herself, and that clearly being Dany and not Margaery.

I hadn't forgotten that. And it's actually something that I've been longing for ever since reading it. But does it need to be so specific? Does Dany literally need to come and take the throne from her? Prophecies are tricky creatures, the realm could fall into Danys hands without her so much as lifting a finger. And Cersei would still have lost to a younger and more beautiful queen.

[Edward the Great]

Margaery, like her brother Loras, is incredibly beautiful. And at this stage she has a much larger army than Dany. I would not count her out. Dany regaining the Iron Throne at the end would be very cliche.

[Mad Monkey]

Isn't Margaery in jail?

[Ran]

Margaery's described as pretty, rather than as stunningly beautiful (that's Loras). I don't really know that she's more beautiful than Cersei at this stage. However, later on, will Cersei still be a great beauty? That's a question.

I don't think Margaery and Cersei will be rescued together, in any case. I suspect Cersei's salvation will come by some other fashion.

[Padraig]

This is my main problem with the way AFFC/ADWD was handled. We know that nothing too world changing has happened to the other characters, at least not until the very end of ADWD. Else word would have reached at least kings landing by the end of AFFC.

Well, the Wall and Meereen is physically so far away that something could happen in either without word reaching Kings Landing. They still don't know Dany has dragons and she has had them for a year and a half at least!

At the same time, probably wouldn't make sense for her to leave for Westeros too soon. She had decided to stay in Meereen at the end of aSoS.

[Errant Bard]

They still don't know Dany has dragons and she has had them for a year and a half at least!

They know, Varys told them. Cersei chose to dismiss it, like the stories about krakens and other supernatural phenomena. Of course, Varys didn't really phrase it so it would be taken seriously, then or after.

Word reached Oldtown, as well, as we see in the very prologue of AFFC, and people, once again, chose to ignore it.

[Jackals Justice]

They know, Varys told them. Cersei chose to dismiss it, like the stories about krakens and other supernatural phenomena. Of course, Varys didn't really phrase it so it would be taken seriously, then or after.

Word reached Oldtown, as well, as we see in the very prologue of AFFC, and people, once again, chose to ignore it.

Not that I blame her. Would you want to believe your enemy has 3 dragons? It is typical of her though, to be dismissive of things that eventually come back to bite her.

Margaery, like her brother Loras, is incredibly beautiful. And at this stage she has a much larger army than Dany. I would not count her out. Dany regaining the Iron Throne at the end would be very cliche.

But it would be as Cliche for her to die in a glorious battle against the others as well.. So what would should happen to Dany? She could fufill the Lightbringer prophecy down to the letter, having the blade tempered through her heart, but that would also be cliche. Riding off into the sunset? That's worse, and it would go against everything we've been told she is to simply give up the Throne, unless she dies I can't see her giving up the fight for it.

With Margery, I assumed we could rule her out as the one the Prophecy foretold of simply because Cersei assumed Margery was the one whom it spoke of.