Wise Man's Fear [SPOILERS!]

[Renasko]

What are you going on about, Pat?

[pat5150]

The fact that some people feel that sales of books by authors such as Rothfuss and GRRM will suffer because some fans are irked by the amount of time elapsed between novels and won't buy the next one...

Silly...

Patrick

[Werthead]

There is no question at all that ADWD's sales will not suffer due to the wait, not least because of the rising profile of the series in the meantime and the soon-to-be huge sales boost from the TV series. Regardless of if ADWD comes out in the autumn (now unlikely) or the spring, it will still be on sale in hardcover when the TV series debuts and fast readers will catch up to it long before it comes out in pb (especially if Bantam wait another 2 years before putting it out in mmpb).

The Wise Man's Fear is in a different position because the first book sold incredibly well, but we have no indication so far that this was not a flash-in-the-pan caused by DAW's extensive marketing for the book (and part of that marketing was sending out early ARCs and getting bloggers on board, providing many additional, positive review blurbs to both the book and the marketing for it). My assessment is that WMF will sell very well indeed, possibly eclipsing the first book, as long as DAW does similar marketing for it and gets the word out it's coming out.

The different between the two is stark: ADWD is Book 5 in a series with a steadily rising profile. WMF is the sequel to a single bestseller published four years ago. All indications are that WMF will do very well indeed, but it's success is not as automatically assured. If you disagree, go ask GRRM how far relying on Fevre Dream fans to pick up his next horror novel got him and his publishers in 1983, or ask Paul Kearney how the expected excellent sales for the sequel to his well-received Mark of Ran worked out.

[Myrddin]

The fact that some people feel that sales of books by authors such as Rothfuss and GRRM will suffer because some fans are irked by the amount of time elapsed between novels and won't buy the next one...

I reread the posts above yours and didn't get htis at all. WMF will suffer from a four year wait because people (not the 10% you mention) will have forgotten about reading NOTW and/or don't know it's coming out. I remember way back when Clash of Kings came out, I had nearly forgotten having read Game of Thrones and didn't realize the sequel was out. Several friends of mine were the same way, and only went to the store to get CoK (out in paperback by this time...) once I reminded them.

Most of the discussion above about writing times were more speculation on how long the third one would take, more than "I'm not buying it because he took to long."

I do find that the longer it takes for an author to release the next book, the less enthused I am to read it. Not in some snarky fan-boi rage, but more that waiting years and years to see how a story ends gets old. If I knew I'd still be reading Wheel of Time 20 years later, I would never have picked up Eye of the World. My loss, sure, but when enough time passes between volumes, the more I forget what happened before.

Believe me, I wish this wasn't true, and I know it's going to bite me in the ass someday if I ever get my own stories published. I'm sending out my first batch of query letters today...

[kcf]

I agree with Myrddin, which one reason I think it's a mistake for Daw not do ARCs for this one. One of the successful marketing strategies of NOTW was that it was pretty much the first book (in the SFF world anyway) to be widely circulated in advance to fans/bloggers.* Now, I suppose it may not matter so much since most of these blogs, message boarda and other places are talking about WMF already and will certainly talk up it's impending release. As Wert says, I don't think it'll matter too much as long as Daw does make a significant effot at marketing it.

*Admittedly, the reason I'm most upset that Daw isn't doing ARCs for WMF is that I really want one and wouldn't have trouble getting one if they were. I'm still hoping to get it at least a bit early though.

[pat5150]

Guys,

No ARCs just means that the Kens, Werts, and Pats of this world won't get it months in advance. But that doesn't mean that people like GRRM, Gaiman, Sanderson, etc, won't get a galley. As popular as the Hotlist is, even a perfect review from me means shit compared to a positive blurb by Neil Gaiman.

Don't know if anyone here follows Rothfuss blogs and Facebook ppage, but the guy is very active. He's a huge hit at every con he goes to, and the paperback edition of TNotW did extremely well. So don't go thinking that Daw is doing a fly-by-night with this one.

I'm privy to information you guys don't have, but based on sales of the first book, if only 20% of those who bought TNotW purchase TWMF the week it will be released, that will be enough to put Rothfuss in the NYT top 10. And given that the guy has nearly 17,000 fans on his FB page, and given that TWMF is eagerly anticipated, one can safely assume that more than 20% of his fan base will buy book 2.

Will it outsell TNotW in hardback? That remains to be seen. Though TWMF should be a racehorse right out of the gate, it's the quality of the novel which will dictate how well it will do in the long run.

I wholeheartedly agree that it would have sold even more right off the bat had the book been released last year or the year before. But to think that it will have a dramatic impact on sales is a bit ridiculous. Every single major newspaper in North America with a book section will likely review it, as will Entertainment Weekly and other such venues, not to mention SFF blogs, websites, etc.

And the fact that most of the coverage will occur just before or around pub date should push initial sales even more...

We'll have to wait and see, sure, but I expect TWMF to do well on its first couple of weeks. Whether it can sustain the incredible momentum that TNotW had remains to be seen, but I don't expect to find Rothfuss living under a bridge and curse himself for not finishing the book sooner...

Lynch is another story altogether, because he never did sell as much as Rothfuss did, nor did he garner the same kind of rave reviews in print media, etc. But I think that Gollancz will push this one the way they pushed TLoLL, and if the book is good then the sales will follow. :)

Patrick

[Werthead]

Yeah, as has been said many times before, for all the storm of publicity and good online reviews that The Lies of Lock Lamora received, it was outsold by a whole bunch of authors that are never, ever discussed on this forum or most of the other big SFF ones, including Karen Miller and Gail Z. Martin. It did very well, but it was not a massive, unprecedented success, despite the glowing Morgan and GRRM cover blurbs. TNotW was on another level altogether.

[Lord of Rhinos]

Sending review copies matters when the book might not get read otherwise. Name of the Wind is popular enough that its sequel is going to get read by most of the bloggers regardless of whether they get an ARC and they will review it. I suspect Pat, Werthead, and kcf will be reviewing this shortly after release ARC or no ARC. The only thing that will change is that the reviews will be moved back a couple weeks.

[Jussi]

From Peter V. Brett's forum:

I am currently halfway through The Wise Man's Fear by Patrick Rothfuss in manuscript form. :cool4:

Been reading it in the park. So far, I have gotten grass stains on it, spilled iced tea on it, and used it to kill more than one bug with the audacity to crawl across the page while I was reading.

So far, it's as good as TNoTW. Really enjoying it.

http://www.petervbrett.com/forum/miscellaneous/so-what-other-books-are-you-currently-reading/#p100

[Slick Mongoose]

Cool. :thumbsup:

[Renasko]

Brett need prefer himself for a fan-convergence on him. Seize the 'script, at all costs!

[Myrddin]

Brett need prefer himself for a fan-convergence on him. Seize the 'script, at all costs!

The fans will be congregating outside his house, like the Fremen in Dune watching Paul ride past, but instead of chanting "Mu-ad Dib" they'll be chanting "Wise Man's Fear." :ph34r:

Meanwhile, the ninjjas will be sneaking in through the back... :ninja:

[Jussi]

Rothfuss wrote in his blog today:

Still revising. One week ’til deadline.

http://blog.patrickrothfuss.com/2010/08/locus-magazine/

[Renasko]

Anyone know if he made his deadline?

[Werthead]

Anyone know if he made his deadline?

From today's blog entry:

And I am still working on the book.

So I guess no, unless he finished it an hour or two later. I'd keep an eye on his blog in the next few days to see if he elaborates.

[Gabriele]

Yeah, as has been said many times before, for all the storm of publicity and good online reviews that The Lies of Lock Lamora received, it was outsold by a whole bunch of authors that are never, ever discussed on this forum or most of the other big SFF ones, including Karen Miller and Gail Z. Martin.

That's interesting. I read online excerpts of both those writers but found the actual writing so subpar that I didn't buy the books.

[Jussi]

Orion/Gollancz Spring 2011 catalogue claims that Wise Man's Fear will be published in March:

http://www.exacteditions.com/exact/browse/539/1198/7620/3/64?dps=

[Jussi]

Now Amazon UK is saying March 17th for the Gollancz edition:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Wise-Mans-Fear-Kingkiller-Chronicle/dp/0575081414/ref=sr_1_249?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1286104757&sr=1-249

[Werthead]

Very encouraging news. Based on Pat's info about the editor reading a fourth draft, it now looks like this book is more likely to make the spring date. However, believe nothing until Rothfuss confirms it's done and dusted.

[davos]

Very encouraging news. Based on Pat's info about the editor reading a fourth draft, it now looks like this book is more likely to make the spring date. However, believe nothing until Rothfuss confirms it's done and dusted.

This. Anyone who has worked in the book industry in any fashion be it in a bookstore, as a writer, a reviewer or whatever knows that any release date, even given by the publisher, is pure speculation until the editing process is completed. When that is done they can move forward with the process and give a fairly reliable release date. Until then don't believe anything, except possibly from the author.