Chances of the Series actually getting Greenlighted?

[red snow]

The Tudors finishes at the end of Season 4 and I believe that's it. I believe they've said that going much past the end of Henry VIII puts you into Elizabeth I territory

I'm pretty sure this never happens these days. The Borgias and I, Claudius in the 1970s enraged the British viewing public, but since then those sort of things haven't really raised eyebrows. Rome's incest storyline passed without comment in the UK.

Well there were 3 other monarchs in power between Henry and Elizabeth, including his eldest daughter who has been developed throughout the show. It's a shame they always get overlooked as TV would be a great way do cover their reigns. Although there's maybe some of it covered in films of Elizabeth before she was crowned?

Someone I worked with was absolutely disgusted by Rome and the Tudors. Luckily I she did the sensible thing of sinply not watching anymore and depriving the show of any publicity.

If AGOT wants some publicity they should find some roles for Russel Brand and Jonathan Ross. That always works for the BBC.

[FilliamHMuffman]

I'm hopeful, but my fear is if GRRM doesn't start showing some real progress on the books, HBO will get cold feet. Between the blog post early this month about failing miserably to resolve the "Mereneese Knot" and his plans to go to Ireland next month, another delay for ADWD is looking very likely.

[Ran]

HBO wouldn't care. To imagine the series is going to go six or seven seasons is a huge leap of faith as is, so I'm pretty sure they'll cross that bridge when they come to it.

There is no delay, BTW, as the book has not been scheduled. Can't delay what isn't scheduled.

[TheHalfman]

I don't know if it has been mentioned in any posts around here, but HBO is cutting HBO sports $15 million for 2010, so I'd imagine the purse will be a little bigger for HBO series now. (A lot less money to be spent on boxing, http://www.secondsout.com/columns/thomas-h...at-a-crossroads )

For $15,000,000, Mike Lombardo can develop two new series and maybe deliver the next Sex and the City or The Sopranos.”

I can't honestly give a chance, but I hope it's great.

[Brude]

Well there were 3 other monarchs in power between Henry and Elizabeth, including his eldest daughter who has been developed throughout the show. It's a shame they always get overlooked as TV would be a great way do cover their reigns. Although there's maybe some of it covered in films of Elizabeth before she was crowned?

Edward VI, Jane Grey (who lasted all of 9 days as Queen) and Mary I. There was a pretty good movie with Helena Bonham Carter and Carey Elwes called "Lady Jane" that came out in the 1980's about her. Her short life was quite interesting. Mary has had quite a few depictions, but it's usually in productions about either her father or half-sister/successor Elizabeth.

I can't remember much of anything about Edward VI.

[crunchb3rry]

No surprise in them cutting the budget for HBO Sports. Losing Inside The NFL was a huge blow. Maybe they are not cutting the budget so much as not having to pay the salaries of those has-been legends that probably got 7 figure salaries to rant about sports once a week. Still, it's more money in HBO's pocket. That much money could go a long way in bankrolling other "smaller" shows so HBO can put their dough into an epic series like this.

[Goofyhead]

Well let me ask this: about what percentage of pilots made by HBO get greenlit? I've never followed the film making process like I am with this show, so I have no clue. And what's the criterion for getting greenlit? I imagine they judge how much public interest there is and compare the cost of production, but how do they gauge the former? Do the ratings for the pilot play a factor? Or is it based on focus groups? How much does the success of the series help?

And on that point, does anyone know roughly when the pilot will be shown to the public? Will it be shown on HBO before the show is greenlit? Again, I don't know the process. I don't ever remember watching a pilot or see advertisement for a show that hasn't already been greenlit.

[Ran]

Goofyhead,

about what percentage of pilots made by HBO get greenlit?

No idea. No statistics that I've found. I do recall that at one point they said they had about 10-12 shows on their development slate, and only about 6 would get a greenlight. I know for sure of just one pilot that was passed on. We also have the example of GRRM having said there was an Arthurian show being pitched to HBO, which was the main rival to GoT's hopes ... and GoT got the greenlight, and then we were hearing of Showtime developing an Arthurian show; always made me wonder if they were one and the same, and if the developers just moved it over to Showtime when HBO passed.

And what's the criterion for getting greenlit? I imagine they judge how much public interest there is and compare the cost of production, right?

Basically. I assume they're going to look at all sorts of things -- the quality of the production, the casual viewer and hardcore interest, public support from critics (this is a bonus for GoT -- several internet-savvy TV critics have voiced their interest in seeing it go forward), money-earning potential in terms of DVDs and maybe merchandise, cost projections, and so on. It's a complex business.

How much does the success of the series help?

A little bit, but not a whole lot, I think.

does anyone know roughly when the pilot will be shown to the public?

Short of the pilot being leaked (not utterly impossible, but improbable; the leak of True Blood's pilot episode was the only such case I've seen from HBO), the general HBO viewership will not see it until it's aired as the first episode of the series. They won't just air the pilot to see how reaction is... although I suppose it's not impossible that HBO might leak it themselves to test the waters with the Internet crowd.

[JungianQueen]

I spoke to a friend of mine (who used to work at HBO studios as a script writer) and he said that if all this buzz is out there already, the chances are good that's it's a go. They wouldn't spend this much time making a public balleyhoo to back out.

I think the way the first script is set up (ending with "The things I do for love") I'm not sure how any exec can watch that and not want to see "what happens next."

Upgrade me from cautiously optimistic to a straight-up optimistic.

[ogbebaba]

They wouldn't spend this much time making a public balleyhoo to back out.

I may be wrong but I don't think the buzz is from HBO making any "ballyhoo" as far as I have seen they haven’t done anything to create buzz other than leak casting and production choices. I am pretty shore the main part of the buzz has been created by the fans of the source material.

[Ran]

Yes, that's the one caveat I thought of when JungianQueen shared her acquaintance's views. HBO has done little to create buzz beyond fairly standard press release schedules. There were the leaks, but I've been reliably told that these were genuine leaks, not just HBO's PR team releasing news as "leaks" to create buzz. So the existence of the buzz is real, but it's not evidence of HBO putting forth any special effort, so far as I can see.

[LugaJetboyGirl]

I am pretty shore the main part of the buzz has been created by the fans of the source material.

Like us! :)

[Rimmer]

Short of the pilot being leaked (not utterly impossible, but improbable; the leak of True Blood's pilot episode was the only such case I've seen from HBO)...

But aren't True Blood and GoT about the only two HBO shows to have an existing fanbase before they were released? I don't think it's coincidence that the TB one was leaked, and I think this one is pretty likely too.

[The Pita]

What other HBO shows were based on books?

[Werthead]

What other HBO shows were based on books?

The Wire is based on David Simon's book Homicide: A Life on the Killing Streets.

Band of Brothers was based on the book of the same name by Stephen Ambrose.

John Adams was based on the book of the same name by David McCullough.

Generation Kill was based on the book of the same name by Evan Wright.

The Pacific is based on With the Old Breed by Eugene Sled and Helmet for My Pillow by Robert Leckie.

More relevant are the fictional novels that HBO have built series around:

Sex in the City was based on the book of the same name by Candace Bushell.

The No. 1 Ladies' Detective Agency is based on the book of the same name by Alexander McCall Smith.

True Blood is of course based on Dead After Dark and its sequels by Charlaine Harris.

[Teabag]

The Wire is based on David Simon's book Homicide: A Life on the Killing Streets.

NBC's Homicide: Life On The Street is based on that book, not The Wire which isn't directly based on anything. The only thing HBO have produced straight from a Simon book is The Corner which is based on The Corner: A Year in the Life of an Inner-City Neighborhood

[The Pita]

Did those have existing fanbases?

I know my mom loves the book Ladies' Detective Agency.

I'll tell her there's a show, I guess.

[Ran]

The Southern Vampire series has a loyal following, though not so loud or large as GRRM's I think.

[JWJ78]

Too many characters, too many plot lines, too high a production cost- AND at this point no finale! What they are just going to write up a yr to yr deal or a 4 yr deal up front with the promise George will be able to complete the next 3 probably 4 books within the same 4 yr time period of the first four tv seasons- DON'T think so not when it takes 5+ years for him to write one.

Maybe it will get greenlight (I hope so) but it won't last long. 2 seasons just like Rome at most (which it's second season sucked because of the production break).

If you don't go into something like this thinking ahead of time about writing out the complete story and actually having an endgame then the quality of the show goes down- look at Heroes, Lost, BattleStar. The writers of all those shows were just winging it from season to season because they didn't know if they were going to get the next season Ok'd ahead of time, so it just stalls them. This is a big concern to me. Peter Jackson did such a good job on LOTR because it was already planned from beginning to end and all the planning for all three films before they were shot. Do you think HBO is going to care about such things? only if they can make enough money but again super high production costs.

I've been crunching some numbers looking at books pages versus recorded run time for the special edition dvd collections of LOTR and trying to compare ASOIAF books to a 12 episode season. LOTR avg'd about 150 pages per hour of run time for the first book. Now look at GOT it's 704 pages long so if we are trying to compare LOTR then 704/150 = 4.69 - that's roughly 5 epsiodes to have the same quality of Fellowship of the Rings. What are you going to do with the remaining 7 episodes??? easy add in book 2! YES that's right! ASOS 1216 pages /150 pgs per hr = 8.11. so with editings and proper pacing you could tell the story for the entire first 2 books in 13 episodes! so make one of those (say the season finale) a 2 hr show. PRESTO! HBO should be able to write up a deal right now! for 2 seasons both 12 episode with 1 two hr finale and be able to have all write material George has at the moment wrapped up and hit the same quality as LOTR.

Does anyone know how much it took Peter Jackson to make LOTR trilogy? cause my guess it will take HBO x2 maybe x3 more to make a full 4 books worth (2 seasons) of ASOIAF. Again this is if they do it right and it's a quality production. I just don't see where to money is going to come from.

[Son of a Craster]

hmm.. i agree with some of your points, but for your calculations perhaps you should use the pilot's script. It gives a much more accurate depiction of how much is needed for one season and not crunching any numbers I'd guess it would be 1 season 1 book.

With Ned's head being the season finale. Quite strong if you ask me.

My hopes / guesses are they'll make it to season 3... and either it'll be as big as Sex & the City and they'll work around any inconveniencies (at that point probable 1 1/2 unfinished books won't be much of an inconvenvience, GRRM already knows the ending) ooorrrr... not and then they'll stop right then and there.