Chances of the Series actually getting Greenlighted?

[Slynt]

I am afraid it won't become a series. Maybe in America people are a bit more aware of A Song of Ice and Fire, but here in Europe it isn't a widely known franchise. Of course, the books are as good as it gets and everybody who had actually read them knows this - but an audience must be drawn in, and it may be hard to do it with this type of story - medieval fantasy - but a pilot is enough for me to drool over.

And if the show would continue I'd be very happy (and surprised); if it doesn't, oh well. A shame the world remains ignorant of the awesomest saga ever.

[Halfhand]

I am afraid it won't become a series. Maybe in America people are a bit more aware of A Song of Ice and Fire, but here in Europe it isn't a widely known franchise.

Whether people are aware of the books matters little in HBO's decision to order the series or not. They will be much more concerned about things like profitability of the show. The fact that they already have thousands of people interested in the show before they've even filmed the pilot is just a bonus. Most projects have basically 0 people interested in the show prior to getting a series order.

[Ser Greguh]

I am afraid it won't become a series. Maybe in America people are a bit more aware of A Song of Ice and Fire, but here in Europe it isn't a widely known franchise. Of course, the books are as good as it gets and everybody who had actually read them knows this - but an audience must be drawn in, and it may be hard to do it with this type of story - medieval fantasy - but a pilot is enough for me to drool over.

And if the show would continue I'd be very happy (and surprised); if it doesn't, oh well. A shame the world remains ignorant of the awesomest saga ever.

To be sure, the books aren't popular enough to make the series a sure thing on its built-in fanbase alone (i.e. it's not Harry Potter) but there's still plenty of room for it to be picked up and be successful. See True Blood for reference.

[Three Headed Dragon]

A shame the world remains ignorant of the awesomest saga ever.

Totally, trying to get my mates to read the series has been like getting blood out of a stone. Eventually I have been resigned to "meh, it's your loss". Although as said many times before, if the series is greenlighted hordes of new fans will start the books......then i'll be all like "told you so"

:D :read:

[Padraig]

Yes. And its going to stand and fall on the US market anyhow. If its a success in the US then other countries will pick it up.

HBO wouldn't be making a pilot if there was no hope of a series.

[Three Headed Dragon]

I havent seen this before but it turns out the First Minister and Deputy First minister of Northern Ireland actually visited California "to help finalise the deal to bring the TV production here (to Northern Ireland)". Just have a look at the whole press release: http://www.northernireland.gov.uk/news/new...hbo-to-film.htm .

This really boosts the chances of the series getting created because it has big political backers, I wouldn't be suprised if the producers had told the ministers that "its as good as greenlighted" because I think it's unlikely that they would have talks just for a pilot. Well I guess this could just be me theorising......

[Ran]

It's not "just" for the pilot. It's for the pilot and the possibility of more. As a wise person noted to me, given the struggling global economy, the government was going out of its way to trumpet possible good economic news.

Certainly, the tax breaks and financial support they're getting from the Northern Ireland government will help make a series more economically feasible. Whether it'll be enough when weighed against everything else remains a question.

[Brude]

It's not "just" for the pilot. It's for the pilot and the possibility of more. As a wise person noted to me, given the struggling global economy, the government was going out of its way to trumpet possible good economic news.

Further to this, even if this show doesn't go to series, by going out to Hollywood to do this deal they are saying to anyone else out there, "hey, we're serious about this, come to Ireland to make your moves." Odds are they took meetings with several other studio and network bigwigs to promote Northern Ireland and whatever tax schemes and other sweetheart production deals they could in order to bring as many productions as possible there.

[Werthead]

The deal the politicians did for GoT was done at the same time as another one that also apparently secured the Paint Hall for Your Highness as well.

I am afraid it won't become a series. Maybe in America people are a bit more aware of A Song of Ice and Fire, but here in Europe it isn't a widely known franchise.

Amongst genre fans, ASoIaF is hugely well-known in Europe. It's published right across the continent and there are large, substantial non-English fanbases in Spain, France and Russia, among others. ASoIaF also appears to have sold a lot more of four books than the Sookie Stackhouse books did with seven before True Blood aired. On those figures alone, GoT is a strong bet.

But I think, at the end of the day, HBO trusts their producers, and it wasn't the Sookie books per se they were looking at, it was those books as filtered through Alan Ball that got them interested. Similarly, I gather they really wanted to work with David Benioff and GoT is the project he wanted to do, which led to the pilot being commissioned.

[antisocial]

I'd say the odds are 60/40. I think people are way too optimistic. HBO has passed on pilots its produced before, and I think the nascent buzz is a drop in the bucket when you consider how little Internet buzz did for things like Snakes on a Plane and Watchmen; yes, those are films, but I think it scales.

I have to disagree with your percentage.

I'd say with the face recognition of Sean Bean its a sure bet that finding investors isnt a problem now. At least for the first season. And if they can make the first season great and they sweep the Emmy's, like I know they will (this is HBO after all). That just generates more interest, which generates more investments.

That and the books themselves will help. We all know, as will most reviewers (and investors) that the story just gets better as it goes along. So the anticipation of whats coming next episode (and season) helps fuel interest.

The problem then becomes not going over budget, the killer of Deadwood and Rome.

And yes, I am overly-optimistic. :)

[Ran]

"Investors" is not what HBO is looking for. They're looking for a show that's well-executed, that's marketable, and that fits the demographics they're looking for. They think GoT may be it, and are willing to lay out a few million on a pilot to help them make a decision.

Sean Bean is not that big an actor. Face recognition takes you only so far. A lot of factors have to come together.

[The Pita]

I have to disagree with your percentage.

I'd say with the face recognition of Sean Bean its a sure bet that finding investors isnt a problem now. At least for the first season. And if they can make the first season great and they sweep the Emmy's, like I know they will (this is HBO after all). That just generates more interest, which generates more investments.

That and the books themselves will help. We all know, as will most reviewers (and investors) that the story just gets better as it goes along. So the anticipation of whats coming next episode (and season) helps fuel interest.

The Wire won no Emmies. Rome won no Emmies (or very few). Just because it's HBO it doesn't mean we'll get Emmies. We might get shafted by those asshats. We'll definitely get good reviews though.

[Brude]

HBO has all the money it needs to pay for the show, as Ran says that's not the issue. The issue is seeing how the pilot turns out and deciding if going forward looks like a wise investment of that money. Is the show good enough and marketable enough that they think many people will tune in, download and later buy the DVDs? If so, then it goes to show, if not then making the show would just be throwing good money after bad.

It all rests on the quality and commercial viability of the pilot, and they won't know that until they see it. I can't even put that into percentages because it's really just a pass/fail grade in the end. As producers, D&D and HBO are lining up a lot of good, talented people for the project, but just because that happens doesn't mean it will gel, it just means the likelihood of success is much better. A lot of apparent "sure things" in terms of cast and crew still sometimes don't make the grade and just plain turn out bad. My friend just saw a stage version of "Othello" with John Ortiz, Philip Seymour Hoffman and directed by Peter Sellers (a major theater director, not the dead comic actor) and it wasn't good at all - half the audience didn't come back after intermission, and the first half was apparently better than the second, she said. All we can say is, with the group they've assembled, they are giving it the best possible chance. Next, we just have to hope it all works out.

My main fear for derailing things: the kids. SOOOO much rests on the acting abilities of three (or four, if you count Joffrey) very young, inexperienced actors to carry major portions of the story - and I'm not even including relative unknowns like Harrington and Madden, who at least are in their 20's and have years of training and some good experience. If just one of the three young Stark actors (Williams, Turner or whomever plays Bran) isn't working, that will be very fixable. If two are not working, well, that's a bigger problem but I think still something they can overcome. But if all three aren't up to it, then that's three major roles that will have to be re-cast and be re-shot - I could see that really giving HBO pause.

[crunchb3rry]

If it gets picked up, we all need to thank True Blood. Prior to that, HBO just did "safe" shows for the most part. Carnivale was their only real risk that I can recall. But a show about vampires that started out lukewarm and is now very popular would cause HBO to maybe reevaluate their audience. To go less for the middle aged women's "Sex & The City" type demographic and pull in some more younger folks. Young viewers are like the elusive holy grail for ANY network these days.

I think HBO will take a chance on GoT because True Blood proved you can have horror/sci-fi on a network that was previously all just shows closer to reality than "pop fiction." I'm willing to bet they will bank on True Blood viewers being the target audience. $50 says True Blood season 3 is GoT's lead-in and stays that way for a long time until True Blood ends its run and GoT functions as the lead-in for a new crop of new shows.

[The Pita]

HBO... safe shows?

Mad Men, the Sopranos, Rome....

HBO does almost no safe shows.

[The Iceman of the North]

HBO doesn't do Mad Men, but I do agree with the sentiment of the post.

[crunchb3rry]

HBO... safe shows?

Mad Men, the Sopranos, Rome....

HBO does almost no safe shows.

You misinterpret my use of the word "safe." I say "safe" because Sopranos is a mafia show (ie: appeals to a large group...thanks to Goodfellas, The Godfather, etc.) and Rome is a period piece based on the era of Roman history most embedded in pop culture (because of movies like Cleopatra, Gladiator, etc.). Both shows are grounded in reality. As was Deadwood, Oz, etc.

Basically, HBO doesn't do sci-fi fantasy. It's been a long time since Tales From The Crypt that HBO took a shot at another horror type series (True Blood). So if they pick up GoT, it would be a milestone for HBO.

[fitheach]

You misinterpret my use of the word "safe." I say "safe" because Sopranos is a mafia show (ie: appeals to a large group...thanks to Goodfellas, The Godfather, etc.) and Rome is a period piece based on the era of Roman history most embedded in pop culture (because of movies like Cleopatra, Gladiator, etc.). Both shows are grounded in reality. As was Deadwood, Oz, etc.

Basically, HBO doesn't do sci-fi fantasy. It's been a long time since Tales From The Crypt that HBO took a shot at another horror type series (True Blood). So if they pick up GoT, it would be a milestone for HBO.

Yeah, but HBO knows that Trueblood is very popular and is most likely willing to continue tapping into the gold vein that it is... Sorry had to go there :-). GoT is that next step.

[John_Galt]

The problem with GoT will be production cost. HBO is a business - it needs to make money. GoT will require custom sets, special effects (dragons). Look back at all HBO longest running series. How expensive was it to produce Sopranos? You just show up in New Jersey and start filming. Any other show, that wasn't set in contemporary time got canned withing 2 seasons (Rome, Carnivalle, Deadwood). HBO needs to make money, and I'm not sure they are ready to spend a lot of cash on a fantasy-setting show, when they can just make another show for fraction of the cost. Let's I hope I'm wrong on this one.

[Brude]

Any other show, that wasn't set in contemporary time got canned withing 2 seasons (Rome, Carnivalle, Deadwood).

As has been discussed many times before, the situations with Rome and Deadwood are not as you describe here, exactly. Deadwood ended more because David Milch wanted to move on to John From Cincinnati. My understanding is HBO wanted to continue doing Deadwood, and there was a plan to do a Deadwood movie for a while but that never came about. The cancellation of "Rome," though done for reasons of cost, came out of a number of blunders. First, HBO's partner, the BBC screwed up completely by re-cutting the first several episodes of the first season so that they played essentially as a bad soap opera focusing mainly on sex. The show died in the ratings in the UK and the BBC pulled out of the show. Second, HBO didn't take into account the potential for DVD sales, which was still a pretty new thing. They decided to end the show before the DVDs started selling - it turned out it was a huge hit on DVD, more than enough to have paid for continued production of the show, but by then people were committing to other gigs, the second season was written (and I think in production), etc.

So with GoT, there is a better understanding of how DVDs and download sales will help pay future production costs and also the BBC has learned its lesson not to screw with a good thing and re-cut the series (the BBC is also a partner in GoT). For example, the DVD sales of "Band of Brothers" alone are apparently enough to pay for the entire, gigantic production costs of "The Pacific" (rumored to top $200 million).

HBO needs to make money, and I'm not sure they are ready to spend a lot of cash on a fantasy-setting show, when they can just make another show for fraction of the cost. Let's I hope I'm wrong on this one.

HBO has already crunched the numbers on this, I'm sure. Very early in the process of making a greenlight decision, a preliminary budget gets drawn up. My dad and a friend nearly got a movie set up back in like 1976 with a couple of studios and United Artists even went so far as drawing up a preliminary budget for it, but nothing ever came of it. They never sold the project (his one brief flirtation with the movie business). As you said, it's a business and they don't go so far as getting into a hugely expensive pilot, like this will be, without having a plan as to how much the series will cost.

However, there are always the risks of budget overruns and such, so if the pilot somehow goes significantly over budget, that will be a problem for HBO. But as far as the cost of the series, I'm sure they already have a target number in mind. Shooting the pilot is more about making sure they can hit that mark, along with seeing the actual quality of the final product.