NBA Off-season

[AutumnEvenings]

So my Jazz drafted Gordon Hayward with our much-anticipated 9th pick (thanks Relic ;)). I'm really not impressed. More than half of our team should be playing at the 3 spot already, with all of them being 2/3s, not 3/4s (well, AK can kind of play 4). I just don't know what our GM was thinking. Yes, he's good and all, but...Memo will probably never play like he used to, if he plays at all. We've got 2 half-tried centers but we'll probably let one (Koufus) go this off-season. We'd sure as hell better let Boozer go. I love Millsap, love love love him. He's a very good 4. But he's undersized. We need someone to come off the bench behind him weighing more than him, with an arm-span to match.

I think this means we'll get rid of Korver though. I'm not a fan of him, and now that we have a nice safe white guy who can sell pink jerseys to Mormon girls, his spot is gone. (The fact that he holds the best 3-point percentage is not very impressive when you look at his total performance for the 2.5 seasons we've had him, and last season especially.) Or maybe we'll trade Hayward. We've certainly traded away almost all of our round 1 picks.

Our round 2 pick was equally baffling. I love my Jazz, and I thought we did pretty well the 2nd half of last season. But we need some changes this off-season, and so far I'm not seeing it.

[Relic]

(thanks Relic ;))

:(

It gets so much worse...

This was funny because just four months ago the Knicks traded Jordan Hill (last year's No. 8 pick) and their 2012 No. 1, and agreed to swap No. 1s with Houston in 2011 so the Rockets would take Jared Jeffries off their hands (who makes less money than Hinrich, by the way) so they could also pursue LeBron and Bosh. Might be time to take Donnie Walsh to the GM vet and put him down.

AND Earnie Grunfeld took Hinrich off of Chicago's hands, allowing them to sign two max FA's, effectively screwing us even further. Yes i can see a future that includes Arenas and Amare stinking up the Garden. Oh, the horror.

[aeu]

Maybe Hinrich was the price of getting the 17th pick?

So, with that 17th pick, the Wizards selected someone named Kevin Seraphin. Then they helped Nets create more cap space by taking on Yi's contract (and pretty much nothing else, other than money to cover the salary difference).

I guess there is a chance that these moves turn out OK / good a couple of years down the road, but even then, Wizards seem to be selling themselves woefully short. All these teams are dieing to create a little bit of extra cap space and the Wizards are one of the few tems willing to help. You would think they would get much more for their services.

Good news for Relic & Knicks fans:

Lots of people are saying Bosh is going to Miami and apperantly, Hawks will be the suckers who pay $120M to Joe Johnson. So, it seems more and more unlikely that Knicks will be stuck with Bosh & Johnson.

Of course there is still the chance of them getting stuck with Carlos Boozer & Rudy Gay. :P

[Trebla]

Good news for Relic & Knicks fans:

Lots of people are saying Bosh is going to Miami and apperantly, Hawks will be the suckers who pay $120M to Joe Johnson. So, it seems more and more unlikely that Knicks will be stuck with Bosh & Johnson.

Of course there is still the chance of them getting stuck with Carlos Boozer & Rudy Gay. :P

It's all over the place. Several sources are saying Bosh and LeBron will go to the Bulls. Stephen A Smith has guarateed both will go to Miami, after he guaranteed they would go to New York.

Atlanta is NUTS to give that money to Joe Johnson. Denver is nuts if they don't give that kind of money to Carmelo and try to trade him.

I would be very surprised if LeBron goes Miami. I just can't see the King going there when that city is already owned by another superstar.

[Commodore]

Rudy Gay is getting a near max contract, that is insane, everyone is getting the max to stay with their teams.

There goes hopes of a Gay-Love-Sessions team in Minnesota.

[Jaime L]

Rudy Gay is getting a near max contract, that is insane, everyone is getting the max to stay with their teams.

Nothing sends the fans a stronger "we will be irrelevant for the next 5-10 years" message than this.

I keep hoping for that one day when NBA GMs learn that giving a max contract to a non-superstar absolutely guarantees medicority and yet they never seem to. It's like trying to teach a dog to whistle. But hey if it doesn't work out and turns out Rudy Gay is disastrously overpayed it's not like NBA contracts are guaranteed or anything.

[aeu]

It's all over the place. Several sources are saying Bosh and LeBron will go to the Bulls. Stephen A Smith has guarateed both will go to Miami, after he guaranteed they would go to New York.

Atlanta is NUTS to give that money to Joe Johnson. Denver is nuts if they don't give that kind of money to Carmelo and try to trade him.

I would be very surprised if LeBron goes Miami. I just can't see the King going there when that city is already owned by another superstar.

Agreed with all of this. Hawks offer makes no sense. I can see some team overpaying him to complement Lebron or Wade. There is at least some logic behind that. Atlanta just saw the results of having JJ lead a team, barely a month ago. Paying all that money to basically keep the same team from last year? It's crazy.

I read somewhere that the Hawks are up for sale, so the owners basically said "Screw it, let's give Joe Johnson the contract, we will not be paying it anyway."

Stephen A. is probably making stuff up. Bosh said the other day that he doesn't see it happening (all 3 of them going to Miami.) But yeah, there is so much wild speculation at this point.

In other news, Memphis keeps Gay for $80M

http://www.nba.com/news/features/aldridge.2010.freeagency//?ls=iref:nbahpt1

[Maithanet]

Nothing sends the fans a stronger "we will be irrelevant for the next 5-10 years" message than this.

I keep hoping for that one day when NBA GMs learn that giving a max contract to a non-superstar absolutely guarantees medicority and yet they never seem to. It's like trying to teach a dog to whistle. But hey if it doesn't work out and turns out Rudy Gay is disastrously overpayed it's not like NBA contracts are guaranteed or anything.

I couldn't agree more. Particularly given how desperately teams have been trying to clear cap space (trading away first round picks to unload bad contracts). It looks like the teams that were just moments before dying to clear cap space are now going to be handing out bloated contracts to second tier stars.

For me, it's all about attitude as well. Some guys think they are superstars, need to be paid like superstars, and need to get the ball like superstars. We have one in Washington, and we have been a decaying franchise ever since the ink dried on his contract. These guys absolutely prevent franchises from winning.

If you don't have one of the top 10 players in the NBA on your team, it is really really hard to win a championship. But it can be done (Pistons, I'm looking at you here), and the only way to do it is with a system, with depth and with accountability. Overpaying a guy who is maybe the 30th or 50th best man in the league is a death stroke, because he will invariably think he is better than he really is, and that destroys any possibility for system, depth and accountability.

Sidenote: If I am any of the big name free agents and looking to win championships, I can't see how you look any further than Chicago. Noah is good, and doesn't need the ball much. Rose is even better, and both are young. If I am a Bulls fan, I think there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic. Even if they were to strike out on Lebron/Wade/Bosh, I could see them being real contenders with the signing of two of the second tier guys (Stoudamire, Johnson, Pierce, etc), assuming they don't overpay for them.

[Jaime L]

Overpaying a guy who is maybe the 30th or 50th best man in the league is a death stroke, because he will invariably think he is better than he really is, and that destroys any possibility for system, depth and accountability.

Absolutely agree. It's possible you're even being too kind. A quick perusal of Hollinger's PER ratings put Gay as the 92nd best player in the NBA, directly tied with Roy Hibbert.

[Maithanet]

Absolutely agree. It's possible you're even being too kind. A quick perusal of Hollinger's PER ratings put Gay as the 92nd best player in the NBA, directly tied with Roy Hibbert.

Yeah, I'll admit I don't really know anything about Rudy Gay except that he went to UConn (right?). I was just being charitable since I didn't see a single Memphis game this year.

I think it's obvious that if you want to win, you'll do much better with a talented role player like Kendrick Perkins than an overpaid star like Gay or Baron Davis.

[Trebla]

Phil Jackson to return to Lakers

I think this is why Byron Scott signed with Cleveland.

[Jaime L]

Phil Jackson to return to Lakers

I think this is why Byron Scott signed with Cleveland.

Felt like he had to.

Can't beat the perfect symmetry of 4 threepeats. And I suspect both he and Kobe want a crack at whatever Lebron James led Frankenteam emerges.

[Sir Thursday]

I guess the question for teams like Memphis is what they should do if they refuse to pay Gay that much. Gay leaves to go somewhere else, and Memphis are left with some cap space and a gaping hole at SF. They're not a market that's likely to attract a big name free agent, so what are they left with? A year after making a credible if eventually fizzling playoff push, they're stuck in rebuilding mode again. All their fans will probably go back to watching the college teams...

/extrapolation. But I can kind of see why Memphis is doing it - I suspect being in the mix for a playoff spot now is probably more financially appealing than another season in the doldrums after so many since Gasol left.

ST

[Jaime L]

I guess the question for teams like Memphis is what they should do if they refuse to pay Gay that much. Gay leaves to go somewhere else, and Memphis are left with some cap space and a gaping hole at SF. They're not a market that's likely to attract a big name free agent, so what are they left with? A year after making a credible if eventually fizzling playoff push, they're stuck in rebuilding mode again. All their fans will probably go back to watching the college teams...

/extrapolation. But I can kind of see why Memphis is doing it - I suspect being in the mix for a playoff spot now is probably more financially appealing than another season in the doldrums after so many since Gasol left.

ST

Ultimately I think this is just thinking small. Clutching tightly to what few fans you have rather than rebuilding for a team that can actually win. Infact in the NBA there's no worse place to be than a team who maxes out in the 30-40 win range plateau. They don't have the horses to win any more than that and they're effectively eliminated from the top 5 of the Lottery of which the vast majority of difference makers come from. It's NBA limbo. Beyond that does a 40 win team materially outdraw a 20 win one? Maybe this past year because Memphis was a surprise playoff contender but in general I think fans know when their team has a low ceiling. This was the Wizards during the Strickland/Richmond/Howard years.

The other problem is the single biggest liablity every team in the NBA has are these albatross contracts made 4-5 years in the past that keep teams from contending when they actually start getting the right players. Jermaine O'Neal, Eddy Curry, Michael Redd, Luol Deng, Tracy McGrady, Raef LaFrentz etc. etc., the list goes on and on guys so overpaid that you have to give up truly valuable assets to encourage a team to take these cap killing contracts of your books. It's why there's all these trades for nothing these days. The only thing worse than not having a player is having an overpaid one.

Lastly if you look at the small market teams that have been successful in baseball, these are the ones who never overpay guys. They'll ditch a talented player the second he demands a contract that's more than he's worth. What were talking here is Moneyball. A guy's talent is only half the equation. Really to determine his utility to a team is a guy's talent versus his contract. This is especially true in a league with a fairly hard cap like the NBA. Everyone has more or less the same amount to spend (with some exception for teams who delve into the Luxury Tax), the only way you can outperform them is get a better bang for your buck. Value is everything.

So back to the original question: What do I do if I'm Memphis? Only target guys who are relative values. Hope we get lucky in the lottery, see if we can build a young, efficient core. Let Gay walk. Even if it means we're awful for a couple years. They took the easy but ultimately foolish way out. The way that most teams take. We've seen this script play out to failure every single time. Maybe it appeases a few fans, but as they say, when you start listening to them it's only a matter of time before you're sitting with them.

[Andriy Czarchenko]

Memphis can only blame themselves. They took Hasheem Thabeet with the 2nd pick last year.

Blowing your capspace just because you have it is stupid. Just look at Detroit with Gordon and Villanueva.

[awesome possum]

Sidenote: If I am any of the big name free agents and looking to win championships, I can't see how you look any further than Chicago. Noah is good, and doesn't need the ball much. Rose is even better, and both are young. If I am a Bulls fan, I think there is a great deal of reason to be optimistic. Even if they were to strike out on Lebron/Wade/Bosh, I could see them being real contenders with the signing of two of the second tier guys (Stoudamire, Johnson, Pierce, etc), assuming they don't overpay for them.

Not counting the excellent playoff series last year against the Celtics, this has been the most exciting time to be a Bulls fan since Jordan retired (the first... no, second? time). Even if the team lands no major superstar, the fact that management has made it clear they're totally committed to winning a few more titles is good for business.

[Relic]

There goes hopes of a Gay-Love-Sessions team in Minnesota.

Haha, that's awesome.

Man, i don't know. At this point the future looks so very bleak for us. The only upsde is keeping David Lee, who is this cities favorite Knick since Oak. Or Spreewell.

[add-on]

So back to the original question: What do I do if I'm Memphis? Only target guys who are relative values. Hope we get lucky in the lottery, see if we can build a young, efficient core. Let Gay walk. Even if it means we're awful for a couple years. They took the easy but ultimately foolish way out. The way that most teams take. We've seen this script play out to failure every single time. Maybe it appeases a few fans, but as they say, when you start listening to them it's only a matter of time before you're sitting with them.

Totally agree. Perfect example of The Right Way is Oklahoma City. Through smart drafts, trades and the luck to land Durant they've compiled a young nucleus that's set up to compete in the West for the next decade.

I'm so nervous about the Bulls. I don't know what to think.

And in other ridiculous news, the T-Wolves re-sign Darko to a four year, 20 mil deal. Why, David Kahn?

[Lightning Lord]

And in other ridiculous news, the T-Wolves re-sign Darko to a four year, 20 mil deal. Why, David Kahn?

I feel like we are personally being punished for our happiness at Garnett's ring in Boston. The guy deserved a ring, even if it couldn't come on our team! Stop collectively spanking us!

I hope soccer supplants NBA soon...

[Jaime L]

I'm so nervous about the Bulls. I don't know what to think.

It's going to be an interesting month in the NBA. There's going to be definite winners and losers between 4 franchises that went all in on the free agent sweepstakes: Chicago, Miami, New Jersey, New York. But only one or maybe two of these teams can make all that cap space they freed up worthwhile.

I do think Chicago's going to win out at the end of the day. But there's no team I feel confident to bet on.

And in other ridiculous news, the T-Wolves re-sign Darko to a four year, 20 mil deal. Why, David Kahn?

I continue to marvel at Darko's ability to continually find work and be paid well for it. I'm starting to think this guy is a secret genius. His only notable impact on the NBA in my opinion was costing the Pistons a ring or two by his mere presence. Yet somehow he convinced Joe Dumars to take him over Anthony, Wade and Bosh. And despite being a definite bust he continues to convince teams to either trade for him or pay him $5 million a year. Guess as an NBA fan you gotta hope he doesn't hypnotize your GM, but we all knew David Kahn was vulnerable.