NBA Off-season

[Jaime L]

I think that's the final nail in the coffin of Lebron-to-the-Knicks. I don't think the Knicks go through with the contract with Amare if Lebron was serious about going there because I really think Lebron would rather play with Bosh. Lebron's delaying making his decision caused the Knicks to get desperate and make sure they come away from Summer 2010 with some prize if not the prize. They've been putting all their energy into this offseason for what 2 years, 3 years now? Would be disastrous if they got spurned by everyone. Seeing Joe Johnson re-signe with the Hawks is kinda like finding out your safety school is all filled up.

Also seemed clear last week that four teams had more buzz behind getting Lebron than the Knicks: Chicago, New Jersey, Cleveland and Miami. Stephen A. Smith even guaranteed the latter which pretty much makes it a done deal and legally enforceable as well I believe.

[Slurktan]

I just heard on the radio that Miami is not in the running for LeBron. More accurately, I heard that he's down to three teams: Cleveland, Chicago, and New Jersey. That would make Mr. A's prediction wildly off if Miami didn't even make the final three. Cleveland looks more and more likely all of the time, but Chicago still makes a lot of sense on paper.

Does anyone know if there's any chance that Chicago could sign LeBron and Wade? I haven't really heard that scenario thrown out there, but I have heard LeBron and Bosh in Chicago. That makes me believe that LeBron and Wade is at least a theoretical possibility. But there is speculation that those two wouldn't really want to play together, and both of them with Rose would be just too many ball-dominators.

If Chicago wouldn't want Wade and LeBron, I wonder if there's any chance that Chicago would panic and let Wade sign out of fear of getting nothing.

Stephen A Smith has come out and said that the trifecta ain't happening in Miami and it's all because of Bosh. Bosh apparently won't take a paycut and wants max money. The only way he is getting max money is via sign and trade from Toronto. Miami has nothing Toronto wants so apparently it is out as a Bosh destination, he apparently also has zero urge to play in Cleveland even if they resign LeBron. Toronto I suppose still has a chance at resigning him but from the way Colangelo has been talking to the press and basically all the Toronto media killing Bosh in the papers it's not going to happen.

Chicago and Houston are the two candidates. What I like as a Raptors fan is that today it has been tweeted/reported/whatever that the Raptors will only trade him to Chicago if they get Noah in return. They don't want Deng. Houston has an offer of Ariza/Battier/Scola already offered to TO. I hope all that stuff is true as I would take either of those deals. Probably Noah first because he would be absolutely perfect with Bargnani but I do love Sugar Shane.

Latest I've heard about Wade is that it is getting serious with Chicago due to family issues he is having. Supposedly he just got temporary custody of his sons and they live in Chi town and he doesn't want to/can't move them anywhere including Miami.

[Commodore]

The idea that Chicago is ready to win is laughable to me. All of these teams have completely gutted themselves, Miami/Chicago/NJ/NY. One of those teams is going to be hung out to dry.

You don't see the Lakers/Spurs/Mavs/Celtics/Thunder/Rockets/Magic/Blazers/Suns doing that. They all have deep rosters with players that are undervalued/underpaid. They don't gut their teams and overpay for stars.

Since when did Noah become some All-Star big man? The Bulls have one All-Star and might get Boozer. That frontcourt is still too undersized. Their bench is nonexistent, one injury and that team is done.

Bosh needs max money, he doesn't get endorsements like these other guys. No way he is leaving $30 million on the table to play with Wade, that is outright moronic. And Toronto knows this, so Bosh can't threaten them with taking Miami's garbage (pothead Beasley).

My predictions:

LBJ - Cle, guy is very loyal, has a close group of friends/family in Ohio, can get max money. NJ maybe but I just don't see it.

Boozer - Chi, best PF they can get, will be way overpaid.

Wade - not sure on this one, probably Mia for max money, but who else can Miami sign? Chicago close second.

Bosh - Houston, this is a no brainer, deepest of the teams he can play for, has the assets to do SnT with Toronto, can get the max contract, can get gobs of money/endorsements from a billion Chinese Yao fans. He can be alpha dog in Houston rather than follow Wade/LBJ. No income tax. Close to his Dallas home. Guaranteed All-Star every single year (T-Mac was almost a starter last year lol).

Bosh will choose Houston, and LBJ and Wade will follow and stay with their current teams, it's the safe pick and the best pick financially, all getting max money.

Knicks will save their money and go for Melo next year.

[ztemhead]

:: groans and whines in pain

i just....DON'T FUCKING GET IT!!! This is a typical Dolan move. It's beyond retarded. FUCK! What a dipfuck. God. :stillsick:

bwah! He's your problem now. Gotta love that ole! defense.

IMO the deal Sarver offered him to stay in Phoenix was completely fair.

Oh, also, have fun with the sideshow that is Amar'e's mother

I predict he's hurt again by the end of the year due to D'Antoni playing him too many minutes.

[Jaime L]

You don't see the Lakers/Spurs/Mavs/Celtics/Thunder/Rockets/Magic/Blazers/Suns doing that. They all have deep rosters with players that are undervalued/underpaid. They don't gut their teams and overpay for stars.

This list is pretty funny to me. I see the distinction you're trying to draw between good teams that don't do it and bad teams that do but it's demonstrably false. The Celtics are the definition of a team that gutted all of its young players for three stars. And the Lakers have always built their franchise around superstars. They're just fortunate enough that stars are drawn there. Every other team on that list except Phoenix is lucky enough to have gotten their superstar in the lottery. For the teams that haven't been so fortunate in the lottery, this offseason gives them opportunities to direct their destiny rather than leave up to ping pong balls.

Also if Chicago got LeBron James they would unequivocally be a top 5 team in the league. It goes without saying that the supporting cast there is better than Cleveland's without Lebron. You don't need a particularly deep team to win the title - look at the Lakers championships from the first half of the decade which were Kobe, Shaq and a whole lot of nothing. Or this most recent Laker team which only went about 6 deep. Superstars win in the NBA. Always have, probably always will.

[add-on]

Chicago and Houston are the two candidates. What I like as a Raptors fan is that today it has been tweeted/reported/whatever that the Raptors will only trade him to Chicago if they get Noah in return. They don't want Deng. Houston has an offer of Ariza/Battier/Scola already offered to TO. I hope all that stuff is true as I would take either of those deals. Probably Noah first because he would be absolutely perfect with Bargnani but I do love Sugar Shane.

The Bulls are not going to trade Noah.

The idea that Chicago is ready to win is laughable to me. All of these teams have completely gutted themselves, Miami/Chicago/NJ/NY. One of those teams is going to be hung out to dry.

Not quite sure how Chicago have gutted themselves. They've got a young All-Star point guard and a young big man who's known to pull down 20 boards in playoffs games.

My predictions:

LBJ - Cle, guy is very loyal, has a close group of friends/family in Ohio, can get max money. NJ maybe but I just don't see it.

Not sure he's all that loyal. As Jaime mentioned earlier in the thread, he's a frontrunner. It's why he's a fan of the Yankees and the Cowboys instead of the Indians and the Browns. I think the only reason he's delayed his decision until after his basketball camp is because he doesn't want to have to deal with negative press he'll get for leaving while he's trying to teach young basketball talent.

Boozer - Chi, best PF they can get, will be way overpaid.

This is my nightmare. Any team with Rose on it should run and gun. Adding Boozer is the end of that.

Bosh - Houston, this is a no brainer, deepest of the teams he can play for, has the assets to do SnT with Toronto, can get the max contract, can get gobs of money/endorsements from a billion Chinese Yao fans. He can be alpha dog in Houston rather than follow Wade/LBJ. No income tax. Close to his Dallas home. Guaranteed All-Star every single year (T-Mac was almost a starter last year lol).

Yao's career is almost certainly over. As much as it sucks, a guy that size doesn't make it back all the way from that kind of injury.

Bosh will choose Houston, and LBJ and Wade will follow and stay with their current teams, it's the safe pick and the best pick financially, all getting max money.

If Wade can't get anyone to join him in Miami, he'll almost certainly leave. The guy's 29; he wants to win again. Plus, max money doesn't matter as much to Wade/LBJ with all the endorsements they get.

[aeu]

I don't understand your concern. Amar'e has always brought the level of effort and professionalism of the last six months to every game and practice of his entire career. It's not like he upped his effort because of an impending contract or something. Plus I'm sure the Knicks have something in place to get Steve Nash as well to ensure that Amar'e is just as good. You're overreacting.

You forgot the part about his knee and eye injuries, but other than that, spot on!

Stephen A Smith has come out and said that the trifecta ain't happening in Miami and it's all because of Bosh. Bosh apparently won't take a paycut and wants max money.

Stephen A. is desperately trying to stay somewhat relevant. He was just making shit up originally. He came out and said "The big three to Miami is a done deal" but Bosh immediately said he cannot see it happening. I don't think LeBron seriously considered this either, all the reliable chatter is about Cle and Chicago for him (with NJ a distant third.)

A lot of people are "reporting" random stuff, hoping that one of it will stick. I like Adrian W. from Yahoo, he is almost always right and does not report every little thing someone whispers to him as "breaking news!!!!" He is also conjecturing that LeBron will stay in Cleveland, mainly due to the ties / priviledges he and his boys have there.

What I like as a Raptors fan is that today it has been tweeted/reported/whatever that the Raptors will only trade him to Chicago if they get Noah in return. They don't want Deng. Houston has an offer of Ariza/Battier/Scola already offered to TO. I hope all that stuff is true as I would take either of those deals. Probably Noah first because he would be absolutely perfect with Bargnani but I do love Sugar Shane.

Slurk, would you be happy with that package from Houston? Scola was a great vaue last year, but he is a free agent, so they will have to convince him to do a sign and trade too. I don't know how likely that is, unless you pay him a sizable ransom, and they already signed Amir Jonson and drafted Ed Davis. Battier is a great glue guy and will help any team, but he is not young and Toronto will basically have him for a year. They really should be planning 2-3 years down the road with this S/T. I can see Toronto wanting Ariza, even though he (and his deal) looked much better a year ago.

Houston has some other pieces (Jordan Hill, Aaron Brooks, Knicks pick for next year), but if I'm Toronto, I would do everything I can to get Noah or J.J. Hickson from Cavs. I agree that Bosh desperately needs to do a sign and trade, so Toronto seems to have a lot of leverage here.

Knicks will save their money and go for Melo next year.

I would be shocked if Melo does not accept that extension offer for Nuggets. He would be turning down $65M for 3 years, then opt out of his contract and leave another $18M. With the new CBA (and maybe even a lockout) on the way, he could be leaving $25-$30M on the table. That would be crazy.

Also if Chicago got LeBron James they would unequivocally be a top 5 team in the league. It goes without saying that the supporting cast there is better than Cleveland's without Lebron.

I'm not so sure about that. I think young teams that show flashes of brilliance (like Chicago and OKC, or Portland until recently) get somewhat overrated. It's such a long way from where they are to a real championship contender. You need veterans, defense, experience and most importantly, parts that fit together.

It's true that Cavs do not have a talent like Rose, but they had a veteran team that complemented LeBron quite well. They had a lot of size underneath, and guards who do not need the ball in their hands to be effective.

As it stands now, current Chicago team plus LeBron will be

Rose

LeBron

Deng

Noah

Taj Gibson

+13 M in cap space

They will need to give up Noah to bring in a Bosh or Boozer (or maybe Deng, if they can get someone to take that contract.) Either way, they will be undersized. They will have no depth. And Rose + LeBron + possibly Deng does not seem to fit well together.

That team may have a future couple of years down the road, if Rose and Noah progress significantly and they add a couple of right pieces. I don't think they are instantly a contender / favourite though.

[Slurktan]

The Bulls are not going to trade Noah.

Then going by what Colangelo has been saying, Chris Bosh will not be a Bull. Period. Then you have to take into account if Bosh is out is that more or less likely to convince Wade or LBJ to come? It comes down to how much they value Noah.

Slurk, would you be happy with that package from Houston? Scola was a great vaue last year, but he is a free agent, so they will have to convince him to do a sign and trade too. I don't know how likely that is, unless you pay him a sizable ransom, and they already signed Amir Jonson and drafted Ed Davis. Battier is a great glue guy and will help any team, but he is not young and Toronto will basically have him for a year. They really should be planning 2-3 years down the road with this S/T. I can see Toronto wanting Ariza, even though he (and his deal) looked much better a year ago.

Houston has some other pieces (Jordan Hill, Aaron Brooks, Knicks pick for next year), but if I'm Toronto, I would do everything I can to get Noah or J.J. Hickson from Cavs. I agree that Bosh desperately needs to do a sign and trade, so Toronto seems to have a lot of leverage here.

I would be happy-ish with that trade assuming any Scola deal is relatively short (2-3 year deal). And the Raps could have had Ariza last year he just chose the Rockets over them. I'd definitely take him too, unlike on Houston he won't have to be the main scorer in TO.

Scola and Sugar Shane would be great here, exactly the kind of glue guys we need. For Scola it gives us time to groom Davis and he can be the 4th big man which is fine. Plus it means Bargnani won't have to play more than 30-32 mins which would be a good thing too. For Sugar he'd probably either be 6th man or starting 2, either way works for me.

Obviously I'd take Noah over any of them though but I certainly wouldn't be displeased by swapping Bosh for 3 quality players like that (and possibly a pick or two).

EDIT:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5357607

I'm not as much of a fan of this deal. Thankfully Bosh doesn't seem to want to go to Cleveland. Maybe we could turn around and move Hickson to another squad and get something we want though.

[Jaime L]

I'm not so sure about that. I think young teams that show flashes of brilliance (like Chicago and OKC, or Portland until recently) get somewhat overrated. It's such a long way from where they are to a real championship contender. You need veterans, defense, experience and most importantly, parts that fit together.

It's true that Cavs do not have a talent like Rose, but they had a veteran team that complemented LeBron quite well. They had a lot of size underneath, and guards who do not need the ball in their hands to be effective.

As it stands now, current Chicago team plus LeBron will be

Rose

LeBron

Deng

Noah

Taj Gibson

+13 M in cap space

They will need to give up Noah to bring in a Bosh or Boozer (or maybe Deng, if they can get someone to take that contract.) Either way, they will be undersized. They will have no depth. And Rose + LeBron + possibly Deng does not seem to fit well together.

That team may have a future couple of years down the road, if Rose and Noah progress significantly and they add a couple of right pieces. I don't think they are instantly a contender / favourite though.

I think you're overstating the difficulty in building a contender with Lebron. I think if you look at any analysis of what Lebron means to a bad team it's about 30 wins. Think this will play itself out in Cleveland if he leaves as a 60+ win team will be in the 30s without him. Now put him on a playoff team like the Bulls, a 40+ win team, and I'd say he's worth about 20 wins simply due to diminishing returns. I think most analyses you'd see (Hollinger and otherwise) would bear this out.

Now I do agree there will be a transition period where the team learns to build chemistry. But I'd say that takes about 40 games or half a season. As the team scuffles and tries to find its identity I wouldn't necessarily expect them to get much more than 50-55 wins or so in the first year. But by playoff time I'd expect them to be hitting on all cylinders. And regardless any team with James and Rose on it becomes a contender come playoff time.

There's precedence for this. The Kobe led Lakers were a middle of the pack 40 win team until they added Gasol mid-season and instantly made the NBA Finals winning 57 games in the process. Or take the 2008 Celtics who built a team out of nothing, brought together guys from a bunch of different places and won the title that very same year. Even these Cavs that had to gel and grow together have changed materially each year. The Cavs of Shaq and Jamison is quite a bit different than the one that featured Eric Snow and Larry Hughes but the results were pretty much exactly the same.

The other thing about James is that his unique ability and skillset allows him to fit in on any team. His size and passing ability allow him to play literally any position on the floor. He has the size, strength and athleticism to bang against centers, and the passing ability to be the primary playmaking Point Forward for a team that doesn't have that (like the Cavs). In the playoffs he'd defend whoever was most killing the Cavs whether it was Pierce, Rondo or Allen (three incredibly different offensive players), he became a rebounding force when his team struggled there and he carried the bulk of the scoring load pretty much throughout the playoffs. He fills whatever gap is needed to make his team a winner.

Lastly the Bulls would provide talent on a level he hasn't played with. Think it's clear Joakim Noah can do everything Anderson Varejao can do, just much, much better. Rose can take a lot of the playmaking/passing load off of Lebron. Deng can help with scoring at least as well as the proven unclutch Jamison and/or Williams. It's true they're missing big bodies and shooters, but as for the former the guys he played with on the Cavs (Shaq and Z) were both very limited and defensive liabilities to boot and as for the latter did they have anyone who could consistently make 3's? There's a reason teams were able to pack the lane against the Cavs all playoffs long. Also keep in mind some of the gaps the Bulls have in their current roster would be quickly filled by veterans who would sign on for the chance to win a title. The James Posey/Robert Horry Corollary. Teams with a ) a proven superstar and appear to b ) be in contention for the title will never have a hard time finding that one quality role player to fill a need in a roster. I'm not saying the Bulls would win a title in their first year with James, I'd acutally really doubt that, just that they're instantly a contender.

[Jaxom 1974]

I usually don't have a ton to say in a NBA thread, but let us not forget that, when it comes to the "readiness" of a Bulls team to go deep into the playoffs as a major contender (if you add James) with Rose and Noah, the Bulls made the playoffs the last two seasons despite being coached by Vinnie Del Negro...

What's going to happen now remains to be seen, but launching Vinnie alone is going to make Rose and Noah better...now add James and let's see what happens.

[Skipshot]

I just thought I'd share this hilarious article in which some espn writer tries to claim that the Knicks can offer LeBron a much better supporting cast than the Bulls (written before Amare signed with them). If you want to see why Danilo Gallinari, Toney Douglas and Wilson Chandler should get LeBron excited more than Rose, Deng and Noah, or how Bill Walker is more valuable than Taj Gibson, then check it out.

[Sir Thursday]

As a Houston fan, I'm loving how this has all played out. I find it hard to believe that there would be a Scola + Ariza + Battier for Bosh swap - seems more likely to me that it will be 1-2 of those and then some combination of Jordan Hill/Chase Budinger/picks. And given that, I find the fact that we'd be using stuff we got from NY specifically so that they could go after players like Bosh to pip them to him especially ironic :P.

Kudos to Cleveland for trying to strike a deal with Toronto - given how quiet they've been the last few weeks (what with them not being involved in the draft and all) I had thought they were just standing pat and hoping that the loyalty card and the extra money would be enough to convince LBJ to stay.

ST

[add-on]

I can't believe it's only Tuesday. I feel like I haven't slept in weeks. I need this to end.

I really like David Lee and would prefer him over Boozer if the choice came down to those two. Lee's cheaper and more durable, so there's the whole thing about getting bang for your buck. Plus, i'm a big fan of his pick n roll game.

[Trebla]

Chicago's 670 The Score was reporting that LebRon has dropped William Wesley aka "World Wide Wes" from his inner circle. WWW has been dropping statements and hints about LebRon's destination for months and appeared to be pushing for Chicago. If any of that is true, it could be a sign that LBJ is edging away from Chicago. I googled WWW/LeBron and couldn't find any blurbs about the new rift.

So anyways, the other talk was should the Bulls consider trading Noah for Bosh. Ultimately I would say yes but the caveat being a guarantee that they would get LeBron or Wade as well. And it's highly unlikely either would make such a guarantee before the Bulls could pull the trigger on that. So it would come dowm to doing what the Knicks did: deal and pray one of the Big Two pick you. Would it be better to trade Noah for Bosh or to just sign Boozer and keep Noah?

[aeu]

Trebla,

Worldwide Wes was indeed dumped from LeBron's inner circle quite publicly, right before teams started visiting LeBron. Maverick Carter called NY Times to make sure everybody got the news.

But Maverick Carter, James’s longtime business manager, said Tuesday that Wesley would not play a role in James’s deliberations and would not be present as various teams visit his client in Ohio.

“All the Wes rumors are untrue and he will not be at the meetings,” Carter said. “Wes has nothing to do with where he goes.”

[Piper]

Anyone buying this?:

LeBron James is planning to announce the team with which he will sign during a one-hour special on ESPN Thursday night, ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard has learned through independent sources.

ESPN would only confirm that active discussions for the special are ongoing. But sources tell Broussard that representatives for James contacted the network, proposing that James makes his announcement during a 9 p.m. ET special.

Those sources said that James' representatives requested they be allowed to sell sponsorship for the one-hour special, with the proceeds going to the Boys and Girls Clubs of America, and that ESPN agreed to the proposal but had not been told what James has decided.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5359255

[Jaime L]

Anyone buying this?:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5359255

A primetime special?

Was going to bash the ego of this guy but if the proceeds are going to a charity then at least there's a good cause to his flaunting his self-importance. How are they going to fill an hour though?

[Commodore]

A primetime special, what a joke.

If it isn't Cleveland he will catch hell for this.

[Jaime L]

A primetime special, what a joke.

If it isn't Cleveland he will catch hell for this.

You know, as I think about it, it pretty much has to be Cleveland, right? You don't hold a primetime special to flaunt ripping the hearts out of your hometown. There'd be death threats whenever he'd play in Cleveland. Think he means this as his grand "coming home" moment.

[Slurktan]

A primetime special?

Was going to bash the ego of this guy but if the proceeds are going to a charity then at least there's a good cause to his flaunting his self-importance. How are they going to fill an hour though?

Because all the promotional money is going to those charities I love it. The media has already made this situation a gigantic mess, LeBron surprisingly has come out of it looking very well. Honestly I think it could be 42 minutes of him throwing chalk up in the air in slow motion and the ads would still sell like gangbusters. I don't really care what the program is as I'm not going to watch until the last 10 minutes anyways. Good for him for giving money to charity.