1st HBO Preview, 12 Sept 2010

[Ryan Dunn]

Regarding Gleesongate, you guys almost had me convinced that I was bat-shit crazy. Alas...

...ryan

P.S. Invertebrae = Ryan Dunn henceforth.

[KyleLitke]

Personally I think the preview looked awesome and I'm really looking forward to the show.

My two concerns are farther down the road anyway. One would be cost, like the Rome issue...will the show simply get too expensive to justify it?

The second concern would be way down the road and it's probably a "nice problem" to have...but if they do one book a season...well, 2011 would be Game of Thrones. 2012 Clash of Kings. 2013 Storm of Swords. 2014 and 2015 would probably be a mix of Feast for Crows and Dance (rather than leave characters out of an entire season my guess would be they'd mix them). If Dance isn't out by 2014 then the series will be the least of our complaints, I suspect.

But then what? Okay, perhaps Mr. Martin will have Book 6 out by 2016, that's feasible if he does it faster than Dance and if Dance is finished and out in 2011. But I'd be pretty shocked if he released Book 7 by 2017. So then what? The HBO series ends one year short of finishing it? Martin has to rush out the book even if it suffers for it (which I don't think he'd do)? The HBO series just has to make stuff up? Or has to get Martin to tell them what happened in which case we see it in the HBO series BEFORE the book?

Before anyone says anything, it's not keeping me up at night and it's so far away it doesn't matter now, it's really just an idle thought. ;)

[Ran]

George has said that David and Dan have a sense of where the books are going, and so are entirely capable of completing the TV show even if he's not done with the books.

As far as cost, the show is half the cost of ROME, about the same cost as DEADWOOD or BOARDWALK EMPIRE. Provided the show is a success that create buzz and helps sustain and boost subscription numbers, I don't forsee a budget problem preventing the show from getting more seasons.

[Songlian]

George has said that David and Dan have a sense of where the books are going, and so are entirely capable of completing the TV show even if he's not done with the books.

I'd rather hope it never gets to that, than the other way around. Imagine reading the books afterwards, knowing how the story ends and what fate awaits each character... 

But it's a long way to go still and we haven't even seen the first season yet.   

[jurble]

People are being too optimistic here, The Wire, greatest show in the history of television, only got 4 seasons, GoT will never reach 7 (6 if ADwD and AFfC is combined)

[Ran]

Songlian,

George doesn't want that to happen, either, but ... well, the possibility is there, and if we get to the point where we're worrying about S7, really, we don't have too much to complain about.

IT certainly is _very_ optimistic to envision a show running seven seasons, even one with great source material. It's not even a sure thing it'll get a second season (though I think the odds are better than 50-50 in that particular case -- it's hard to imagine it being a bomb or a debacle, and even modest viewership should convince HBO to give it a second season to see if it'll build its audience), much less at third, fourth, etc.

[The Mance]

...but if they do one book a season...well, 2011 would be Game of Thrones. 2012 Clash of Kings. 2013 Storm of Swords. 2014 and 2015.....

HBO hasn't always stuck to as strict a scheduling regiment with their series' as other networks do. I remember quite a lag between a couple of seasons of The Sopranos for example. So if they have to pad the interims a bit to give GrrM some more time, I don't think anyone would cry foul.

George has said that David and Dan have a sense of where the books are going, and so are entirely capable of completing the TV show even if he's not done with the books.

How would that work, exactly, without either, completely ::spoilering:: the actual ending for long time book fans, or creating their own alt ending to the show that doesn't jibe with the eventual ending in the books? Or do you just mean that they could be cutting the last book/season releases pretty close by being able to start/finish production of the last season before the last book has actually hit the shelves?

[Ran]

My understanding is that, yes, they would basically be running ahead of the books. Of course, I suppose George could distance himself from the production in this case, so their take on things would be, well, _their_ take on what he outlined to them. Who knows how well or thoroughly they'd anticipate or translate it?

If we're talking about book 7 not being anywhere near done when a potential S7 comes around, sure, HBO might delay half a year... but if it's nowhere close, well, why? At that stage, they'll have invested maybe $300-$350 million dollars (including marketing) into the series, they're not going to cancel the production prematurely and they can't hold it off indefinitely (keeping actors under option for a couple of years, keeping sets, etc. would be costly). George sold them the rights, they're going to use them to their benefit.

So, yeah, readers of the books may have to prepare themselves for seeing something approximating the events of the final book on screen before they can read it. But this is all very theoretical and remote. We're talking about a problem that won't manifest itself until 2015 at the earliest, and that's if the series is a big hit that maintains a big audience over 5 seasons.

[Brude]

People are being too optimistic here, The Wire, greatest show in the history of television, only got 4 seasons, GoT will never reach 7 (6 if ADwD and AFfC is combined)

The Wire lasted 5 seasons, not 4, and it was completed in those 5. Somewhere in the process, David Simon and Ed Burns had ideas about a 6th season involving the very recent influx of Hispanics into Baltimore but decided against pursuing this because they realized it was a subject they knew far too little about.

The Wire was not canceled, The Wire ended its story arc.

[jurble]

WE HAD THIS DEBATE IN THE WIRE THREAD! Pretty sure it was canceled. And yeah I got the number of seasons wrong, but that might just be because the Newspaper arc sucked.

[Brude]

WE HAD THIS DEBATE IN THE WIRE THREAD! Pretty sure it was canceled. And yeah I got the number of seasons wrong, but that might just be because the Newspaper arc sucked.

No need to shout about it, and I don't necessarily remember stuff discussed seven months ago in another thread (and it wasn't really a debate, just one statement on the matter by each of us - I went back and looked). As for what happened, at the end of Season 3 Simon and Burns were unsure if they could get any more seasons out of HBO because ratings were so low. They put together a plan to finish the series in two more seasons, which they felt was what they needed to finish the story as they intended it. Despite the very low ratings, HBO agreed to renew the series per their plan, allowing them to bring their story to completion.

I guess HBO rightly realized that the show was inexpensive enough and might yet have future value on DVD and for sales to other markets as people discovered the show. Also, sometimes studios and TV stations understand the prestige factor of certain properties outweigh the money being made off of them. Another factor, the Powers That Be at HBO may simply have just really liked the show and wanted it finished. That happens sometimes, too. NBC didn't give up on "Hill Street Blues" and "Cheers" in their first, very, very low rated seasons, which paid off after both won racks of Emmys and became the top shows on TV. I think HBO's decision was similar.

It's impossible to predict what will happen with this series because we don't know what the ratings will be, we don't know the internal politics at HBO, we don't know how the Power That Be will feel about the show. It's not even the same regime in control of HBO now that made the decisions about The Wire, Deadwood and Rome, so those comparisons are moot, as well.

[Ran]

Except, no damned Emmys for The Wire. Travesty.

I agree that I would not consider The Wire cancelled. It was ended at a time mutually agreed upon by the producers and the corporation.

[KyleLitke]

No clue about how the Wire went, but I never understood the ratings to be that great. In this theory, we'd have to say the ratings are great for A Game of Thrones (if they're not, I'd be shocked if it went longer than perhaps 2, since it'd probably be too costly). Don't get me wrong, I've heard great, great things about the Wire and I'm sure when I watch it, I'll love it, but I can tell you from some of my favorite shows cancelled too early that it's about ratings, not critical acclaim, more often than not.

Anyway, I'd hate to see the show get past the books. I want to read the end, not watch it first (and no, I wouldn't be able to just "hold off", especially if the book isn't that close...someone would spoil it for me long before). But hey, they gotta do what they gotta do. Like others have said, though, it's all purely theoretical. That's such a long way off it's nothing to be concerned about, just an interesting thought.

Brude: I think you're right it's unfair to compare to Deadwood or the Wire. I think it's somewhat fair to compare to Rome though, if the cost ends up being somewhere close, only because that was a monetary issue where even if the ratings were good, it was hard to justify the show (particularly on HBO, where ratings aren't going to get you more money from commercials). Your point stands, just saying I think Rome is at least a somewhat fair comparison, unless I'm wrong and Game of Thrones costs a lot less.

[Lord O' Bones]

unless I'm wrong and Game of Thrones costs a lot less.

This has been mentioned. In this thread. A few times, I think.

Anyway, have you considered, that once GRRM gets through this latest sticky patch in the story that he may start to steamroll through the last books? That's the hyposthesis I console myself with.

[Ran]

Rome cost about $100 million a season. HBO is half that. It's nearer to Deadwood in cost. HBO's executives regretted cancelling Rome. They had gotten antsy about the cost after the BBC pulled out of co-funding, but after they cancelled it, the DVD sales were really strong and they realized they could have kept it going.

[Humble Asskicker]

Anyway, have you considered, that once GRRM gets through this latest sticky patch in the story that he may start to steamroll through the last books? That's the hyposthesis I console myself with.

As I've been telling people for a while now, the reason Feast for Crows is taking so long is that GRRM had to scrap nearly two years of work. It's taking time for him because he must simultaneously plot out how things will work with the five year gap scrapped. After that it will be smooth sailing, and the next books will be out in no time.

Oh, wait. It's 2010 now, isn't it? My bad; we need to find a different delusion to latch onto.

[KyleLitke]

Ah, good to know!

Apologies, Bones, I posted back on page 9 and then it blew up to page 19, and I didn't really have time to go through the thread to see what I missed. Hectic couple of days.

As for the "rough patch", I certainly do hope so. Splitting Feast and Dance may have made things more difficult. On the other hand I could see him having issues with cutting things down, unless a lot of PoV characters die off in Dance. But hey, I'm not really worried about it right now...I'll take it when I can get it, I suppose.

[Angalin]

My understanding is that, yes, they would basically be running ahead of the books. Of course, I suppose George could distance himself from the production in this case, so their take on things would be, well, _their_ take on what he outlined to them. Who knows how well or thoroughly they'd anticipate or translate it?

JK Rowling sat down with Steve Kloves in the early days of the HP adaptation to make sure that the essential points of the story were kept; Dobby's first appearance is an example of this. But that doesn't mean that Benioff and Weiss already know the answers to some of the big ASOIAF questions; it might just mean they know how much emphasis to put on certain plotlines.

[mormont]

As I've been telling people for a while now, the reason Feast for Crows is taking so long is that GRRM had to scrap nearly two years of work. It's taking time for him because he must simultaneously plot out how things will work with the five year gap scrapped. After that it will be smooth sailing, and the next books will be out in no time.

Oh, wait. It's 2010 now, isn't it? My bad; we need to find a different delusion to latch onto.

Well, the scrapping of the five year gap affected Dance too, so your incredibly witty remark is perhaps not as clever as all that after all. But, we'll just have to wait and see how future books go. As has been pointed out, we've got several years before this will become an issue for the series, assuming it gets that far. I think the end of ASOS could work as a natural 'break point' if HBO decide to end the series early - with some amendments, anyway.

[Humble Asskicker]

Well, the scrapping of the five year gap affected Dance too

Well, clearly. Dance, after all, is Feast Part 2 and was for a long time being written simultaneously with Feast Part 1. The gap is the likely culprit for the Meerenese Knot. The point is that while each book has its own dramatic arcs and such, chronologically the book delineation is a mere convenience of space (as demonstrated by GRRM freely moving chapters to future books). To believe that the problems that beset GRRM with the last two book due to this gap oh so fortuitously end here is an act of extraordinary faith.

But you're right that that is well down the line. I'm not complaining either; it doesn't bother me that the TV series will catch up with the books. I think it's a godsend, in fact, because I strongly doubt the books will ever be completed, so at least there's a great likelihood now that we'll see at least one version of the series completed (slim as it is, but now there's hope).