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NFL Offseason 2011


Rhom

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If Rodgers has 5 more years of the productivity he has now he'll still not be in the class of Manning or Brady. He'll be a great, great QB, but he'll need to last a lot longer than that.

Dunno about that. Five more years would give Aaron eight as a starter. Brady now has ten (ignoring the one he was hurt in the first game). Five years of solid performances with a total of 2 or 3 titles would put him in that category, IMO.

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On a vaguely related note, I've now started digging into PFR, because stats about football are much better than the real football thing. One of the neat little things that he's done recently is looked at every QB in the last 20 years or so who started 8 or more playoff games (as well as a few active QBs with fewer than that) and seen how well they've done in the playoffs on a per-drive basis (instead of an aggregate), since drives are a much better way to look at overall performance.

The results are here, and they're pretty interesting. Rodgers stands out primarily because he had such a great run this season (and hasn't had much else) but there are lots of interesting bits that I wouldn't have thought about. Tom Brady's drives were the 4th most to finish 3 and out absolutely shocks me, for instance. Or Philip Rivers punting almost half the time on drives, something that belies that idea that he scores a lot (apparently not in the playoffs). Manning having the worst average starting field position at least makes sense, since the defenses he played with were singularly terrible most years and the special teams even moreso.

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I'll bet Disney was stoked that Green Bay won. Just saw the Aaron Rodgers 'I'm going to Disney World commercial!' Somehow I don't think the prospect of Big Ben at Disney world would have had the desired effect.

They froze out Ray Lewis from that commercial when he was the Super Bowl MVP ten years ago, so, I think if Big Ben had hypothetically won, they would have just picked someone like Polamalu or Hines Ward instead.

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On a vaguely related note, I've now started digging into PFR, because stats about football are much better than the real football thing. One of the neat little things that he's done recently is looked at every QB in the last 20 years or so who started 8 or more playoff games (as well as a few active QBs with fewer than that) and seen how well they've done in the playoffs on a per-drive basis (instead of an aggregate), since drives are a much better way to look at overall performance.

The results are here, and they're pretty interesting. Rodgers stands out primarily because he had such a great run this season (and hasn't had much else) but there are lots of interesting bits that I wouldn't have thought about. Tom Brady's drives were the 4th most to finish 3 and out absolutely shocks me, for instance. Or Philip Rivers punting almost half the time on drives, something that belies that idea that he scores a lot (apparently not in the playoffs). Manning having the worst average starting field position at least makes sense, since the defenses he played with were singularly terrible most years and the special teams even moreso.

This was the most important part of the article, IMO

Disclaimer: the stats presented here are in the quarterback's name, but even more than usual this is really about the team's offensive performance as a whole rather than the individual quarterback. There are certain parts, like the breakdown on interceptions, that are mostly all about the quarterback, but overall drive stats are something you have to keep the team in mind first for.

In the case of Rivers, the Chargers struggled mightily in the run in the post-season, especially under Norv. But this is most likely caused by the fact that during Norv's tenure, aging LT was broken down by season end in many of those games and actually injured DURING two of the seven games.

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Oh sure - I wasn't trying to use it as ammo for specific QB play over others. It's just really interesting. The interception rates, for instance, and the breakdowns of how many interceptions each QB had. Or the rates at which their team played from behind or ahead and how they played then.

The 3 and outs was interesting because while it's a team stat it's at least partially tied in with QBs. I also thought the starting field position was a great bit of information; too often a team's ability to score is very much defined by where they start.

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I've watched some pretty ugly Chargers playoff games. Rivers definitely was not the problem. LT wearing out and an amazing series of remarkably stupid plays (see Troy Brown strips after INT) and frustrating kicks from a place-kicker who was golden in the regular season.

2009 was a real killer for San Diego fans. The team was really good. The meltdown against the Jets inexplicable. Kaeding is a solid kicker, but not that day. Too bad, since if there is one team San Diego plays well against, it is the Colts. The route to the Super Bowl was open and I'd have loved to see what SD-NO looked like. The Rivers-Brees showdown would have been epic.

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Sorry to nitpick, but Steve Young was 38 when he was forced to retire.
Right - but he wanted to play longer, he had basically been in and out of injury from 1995-1997, and he didn't have that long of a NFL career to begin with since it essentially started in 1991.

5 years of productive football. And he was incredible in those 5 years, but again - 5 years.

(also to be fair 1995-1997 were not really bad years or anything, just ones where he didn't play fully)

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It's funny, I had a post in the last thread pre-emptively warning about this exact kind of analysis.

Favre was a three time league MVP. The guy was the best player in the league for three years in a row. Rodgers is not everything Favre was + good decision making. The only reason I can think people would say that is they didn't see Favre play in the mid to late 90s. As for Rodger's laser-rocket throws - I've seen them before, back when Favre threw them.

A pre-emptive warning? Pu-lese .... moving on. Did I say that Rodgers was a more legendary QB than Favre? Not even close!

What I did say is: Rodgers knows when to throw the ball out of bounds or take the sack instead of trying to force the ball in as Favre did very much in his early years. And this is true.

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Well, saying that a quarterback has better decision making than Favre...I mean, there's a reason he texted women pictures of his penis.

Or retired...3 times. And then came back.

Or chose Minnesota as the team to come back to, pissing off legions of Favre fans.

Decision making - he has it not. But I think he could thread the needle better and throw a long bomb better than Rodgers, and he can improvise significantly better than Rodgers can.

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What I observe (and I may be wrong) is that Rodgers gets rid of the ball more quickly than anyone from the moment he decides where he wants to throw it to the moment that ball leaves his hand. I'd love to see Sports Science break it down. Maybe I'm wrong, but Aikman seems to agree.

That's possible. I'd love to see Jaws compare the throwing motion of Rodgers versus Favre or Marino in their primes. Those are the three that come to mind who could just whip it with minimum effort and maximum velocity.

Nitpick: While Favre was MVP three times he was never Super Bowl MVP.

But nitpicks only work if you're the first to mention it. This little fact is what got me on my whole digression of Favre vs. Rodgers to begin with.

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Rivers does not deserve to be talked about with Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees, and Rodgers. There is no reasonable, rational argument that can be made where he compares to them in any way but fantasy stats.

Daunte Culpepper used to be a fantasy football players dream, too.

Just curious, do you ever get just a little bit bold and try to predict who the next great QB or even SB winning QB will be?

Or do you just stick to telling us about the QBs who have already won? I'm pretty sure those are easy to figure out :P

Although including Ben in that list is dubious. Not to throw more hate on the guy, but I think he's been the poster boy QB for "defenses win championships". I wouldn't say he's as bad as the guy who "doesn't lose the game", but he doesn't belong in the same company as the other guys you mentioned. Rivers included.

Ben's a good QB, but definitely not an elite.

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Yeah, that is a good way of putting it. With all of them it's a fucking laser that looks like it wasn't even taxing for them. I have endless respect for Peyton, but his throws look slightly more laborous. Wait...is that even a word?

Sadly everything Peyton does looks laborious. I get exhausted just watching him call a play.

Maybe I should have called it a fun fact. Just to clarify...I am not trying to argue that Rodgers has already proven that he is better than the other great names of the day. I just believe that I've seen enough to strongly believe that he someday will.

Well, I'll say this. The fact we're even debating where he ends up historically shows how high the ceiling has lifted. There's an "anything's possible" sense to his career now where before he was just trying to escape a considerable shadow.

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