Egypt and the Middle East Thread 6

[KAH]

Air power really seems to have made a huge difference. The only good thing to take from it that loyalists haven't made huge progress. You'd fear that if the rebels broke it could get very very bad.

And Rafsanjani loses his post in Iran. Hardly good news either.

I dunno about air power. The reason I am sceptical about the whole no-fly-zone business, apart from the fact that it would apparently need an attack on Libyan air defenses from those who would enforce such a zone (unless it was enforced only on the eastern half, I suppose?) is that the Libyan bombers seem to have been of only moderate use, and in any case is probably not the chief problem facing the rebels.

I remember when the Iraqi no-fly zone of southern Iraq was to be imposed upon the negotiating of the ceasefire agreement, the Iraqi negotiators was all about whether the no-fly zone extended to helicopters. The US negotiators relented on that point for whatever reason, and Saddam set in helicopter gunships against the Shi'a rebels to deadly effect. The form of warfare the rebels are like to wage against Gaddafi, helicopter gunships are far more likely to be a great threat than bombers. Outside the odd munitions dump (which presumably the rebels have had the presence of mind to empty and restore), there aren't that many excellent military targets for Gaddafi's bombers. Bombing the civilian population only risks more defecting pilots, further international pressure, etc. Slowing approaching columns of trucks carrying rebels are probably their main positive effect for Gaddafi.

Should I guess, the cargo plane fleet might come more in handy, allowing Gaddafi to move troops to and fro his strongholds in Sirte and Tripoli, and possibly from abroad bringing in more mercs. As long as he can supply them, the mercs will probably be very happy to accept IOU's from Gaddafi - if he regains control, he's good for it, and I don't doubt he would think twice of beggaring Libya for years to come in order to pay off the foreigners he's bringing in to shoot at his own people.

Briefly about the Libyan Air Force.

As for Rafsanjani, I guess he has some redeeming features compared to Ahmadenijad, but this is a guy firmly within the establishment. An Iranian Mubarak, I suppose.

New clashes in Tahrir Square in Cairo.

[Fez]

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

That's the third or fourth largest holder (depending on what month it is) of Foreign debt, about the same level of importance to our debt as they are to our oil.

I know, you linked to the same chart I did. My point though was that only around 30% of our debt is foreign-owned, and only 5% of that 30% (so like 1.5% of total debt) is held by "oil exporters". I don't know how much of that is Saudi Arabia alone but even if it were nearly all of it, that's not nearly enough money to hold leverage over us. The bond market is not the same as the oil market, and there are more then enough countries/groups/individuals who want to buy US Treasury Bonds that it doesn't matter much if Saudi Arabia doesn't want to buy anymore of them.

[The Progressive]

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

That's the third or fourth largest holder (depending on what month it is) of Foreign debt, about the same level of importance to our debt as they are to our oil.

I know, you linked to the same chart I did. My point though was that only around 30% of our debt is foreign-owned, and only 5% of that 30% (so like 1.5% of total debt) is held by "oil exporters". I don't know how much of that is Saudi Arabia alone but even if it were nearly all of it, that's not nearly enough money to hold leverage over us. The bond market is not the same as the oil market, and there are more then enough countries/groups/individuals who want to buy US Treasury Bonds that it doesn't matter much if Saudi Arabia doesn't want to buy anymore of them.

Fez is right; the group of "oil exporters" includes: Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.

All together, they account for about 2.6 percent of US debt.

[Hereward]

From Lev's link:

So if anybody tells you that Americans work for China now, since they hold all our T-notes and can yank our fiscal chain, tell them that’s an exaggeration. The vast majority of US debt is owed to non-Chinese, after all. Maybe we should worry about the British instead – that queen of theirs looks like a tough customer.

Of course, this too is not the whole story, because if you think that China, or any other major holder or holders, deciding to dump its US debt wouldn't have everybody else scrambling to offload it too, you're kidding yourselves.

PS The Isle of Wight is most definitely not the Queen's secret island lair. Really.

[Padraig]

I dunno about air power.

While I did mean warplanes when I talked about air power last week, I did mean helicopters this time. I should have made that clear. Although warplanes are a good psychological advantage also.

And the Egypt news is grim also. I wonder who is behind the armed plainclothes hoods. This was a tack the regime was taking previously. The Coptic/Muslim clashes is also very worrying.

[KAH]

While I did mean warplanes when I talked about air power last week, I did mean helicopters this time. I should have made that clear. Although warplanes are a good psychological advantage also.

OK, gotcha.

It seems Gaddafi has found a use outside the strictly psychological for the bombers anyway (it appears that he has found mercs to fly his planes too - Serbs and Ukrainians). Probably he's realizing that he needs to play a long game with the eastern rebels, so he is now targetting oil installations like the Sidrah oil terminal. The more time passes, the more likely the eastern rebels will organize the selling of oil on their own (the majority of oil infrastructure and fields appear to be situated in Cyrenaica), and arm themselves better with the revenues. Hence, the oil infrastructure is an obvious strategic target.

Of course, quite a few Mid East rulers may bankroll the easterners anyway; leaving aside the fact that Gaddafi has tried to kill at least one of them, these leaders may have a personal interest in a protracted civil war in Libya.

[Galactus]

France recognizes the rebels as sole legitimat egovernmnet of Libya

Shit just got real.

[The Iceman of the North]

According to UPI, Egypt have sent troops to Libya.

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

According to UPI, Egypt have sent troops to Libya.

That is very interesting, and makes perfect sense. If Egypt aids the rebels, and they succeed, Egypt's influence in the region will increase significantly. I don't think that's a bad thing, because I think the Egyptian military is pretty level-headed and reasonable. The Special Forces guys they've supposedly sent are top-notch, too.

The biggest thing they could do at this point is provide some good antitank/antiair missiles and training. That could change realities on the battlefield pretty quickly.

[Tormund Ukrainesbane]

Ron Paul convincingly argues against a no-fly zone.

But, he's a Republican, and a Christian, so we serious-minded people can't count his opinions.

[The Progressive]

I'm with Ron Paul ......... rebellion has its consequences.

What needed to be done is to continue with the humanitarian aids, confiscating Gaddafi's assets that isn't in Lybia, and ensuring an easier process for those who want to seek asylum.

[Lord O' Bones]

But, he's a Republican, and a Christian, so we serious-minded people can't count his opinions.

If you think this is why people don't listen to Ron Paul, I don't know what to tell you.

[The Progressive]

If you think this is why people don't listen to Ron Paul, I don't know what to tell you.

:laugh:

Well, a broken clock like Ron Paul is still right twice a day.

[Lord O' Bones]

:laugh:

Well, a broken clock like Ron Paul is still right twice a day.

Ron Paul is very right far more than twice a day. But he's either 12 hours fast or 12 hours slow.

[Samalander]

You all know what tomorrow is? That's right, it's

, which means another series of protests.

One Tsunami off the coast of Japan, and nobody cares. Did the protestors even come out or did they decide to stay in, knowing there would be no media attention?

[Tormund Ukrainesbane]

I have a beard. Zeus also has a beard. Therefore I throw lightning bolts to smite my enemies and man-whore it up with all the beautiful ladies of Greece. (Sorry Dalthor. Have fun raising my kids!)

[Crazydog7]

One Tsunami off the coast of Japan, and nobody cares. Did the protestors even come out or did they decide to stay in, knowing there would be no media attention?

No Irovy Coast is the news story that isn't getting any attention at all. I've been using the Al Jazeria Live blog and even they don't really have any coverage of that.

Well there has been a lack of really solid information since the beginning but ever since the rebels were forced to retreat on the 5th things have gotten really vague. Popular resistance is a fine thing but it doesn't matter how righteous your cause is if you don't have the firepower to back it up. With no ability to go on the offensive and no real ability to defend yourself from air attacks or defend the population that would support you otherwise.

The people who were going to defect have already done so the borders have been sealed off by goverment forces so no one can get out. Are they being kept in the country for some forced conscription into the army?

So I think we will see the opposition collapse after some last desperate stand somewhere and if any of the fighters survive they will go insurgent.

[Tormund Ukrainesbane]

Obama has done the correct thing (which he should have done in Egypt) by roundly condemning Gaddafi and his administration and leaving the rest in the hands of the Lybians. It's their fight, not ours.

[KAH]

It's their fight, not ours.

Fair enough. Are you opposed to providing defensive arms to the rebels as well? They would still have to do the fighting themselves.

[Tormund Ukrainesbane]

Fair enough. Are you opposed to providing defensive arms to the rebels as well? They would still have to do the fighting themselves.

I support the right of American (or any) weapons manufacturers to freely contract with anyone they wish. If they wish to contract with rebel factions, that is their right. I don't believe a single cent (that we don't have and will have to borrow) should be sent overseas by the government for any reason.