US Politics...the Reckoning

[TrackerNeil]

Oh come on. Most people who have a belief in a deity or deities will pray for rain during a drought. What makes one a "kook" or not is whether or not one attributes any rain that does fall SOLELY to one's prayers.

I'm not saying that Perry isn't that kooky. But if you think that simply "praying for rain" disqualifies someone from the Presidency, then it would be very hard to find any American politician who would qualify.

I'm fairly certain that both Romney and Obama would have no problem participating in a public prayer for rain in any part of the USA experiencing a drought.

Also, if apparent religious nuttiness were a barrier to entry, you'd disqualify half the Republican field.

[Selmy]

I don't know. Romney was way ahead this time last primary too. He's good with the donors but doesn't seem so good with the voters. The man has like negative charisma.

There are also questions being raised about shenanigans with Super-PACs related to his campaign.

I still think Romney would be the best candidate the GOP could put forward, I just don't think he has enough broad spectrum appeal in the new Republican party.

Who was it that said, "No one wants to vote for the guy that looks like he fired your Dad"?

Anyway, T-Paw is out, so it's anyones race!

[KazigluBey]

Oh come on. Most people who have a belief in a deity or deities will pray for rain during a drought. What makes one a "kook" or not is whether or not one attributes any rain that does fall SOLELY to one's prayers.

But isn't that the whole point? He actually thought he could change the weather by gathering a large group of people and praying. He's not too far from reading chicken entrails or doing a rain dance.

[Shryke]

Bachmann wins Ames Straw Poll in Iowa, barely edging out Ron Paul.

Pawlenty drops out after shitty results. No one notices.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/13/bachmann-wins-iowa-straw-poll/

Here's 538 on why the Ames Straw Poll is a pretty decent predictor of how the Iowa Caucus will turn out:

It is easy to make fun of the Ames Straw Poll. It can’t exactly be described as democratic when you — or the candidate hoping to secure your vote — have to pay your way into the polls.

But Ames has a pretty good predictive track record. Since the event began in 1979, the candidate winning the Iowa caucus has placed first or second in the straw poll every time.

Ames does better than other indicators. Since 1979, its results have the predictive power to explain 58 percent of voting in the Iowa caucuses.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/13/why-ames-actually-matters/

[Shryke]

Romney needs to win New Hampshire. And he knows it. I think he's basically given up on Iowa beyond just making enough of a showing to still be counted.

But if he can't get traction at the start, he probably gets snowballed under whoever does. It's the way the GOP primaries usually work.

[Andriy Czarchenko]

The proportional month after the 4 early states could be interesting.

[mormont]

Here's 538 on why the Ames Straw Poll is a pretty decent predictor of how the Iowa Caucus will turn out:

Against that, though, The Economist points out that

In fact, only three of the past six victors have gone on to win the caucuses, only two the nomination and only one (George W. Bush in 2000) the presidency. Mitt Romney won in Ames last time around, only to lose the caucuses ignominiously to Mike Huckabee. John McCain, the Republican Party's nominee in 2008, did not bother to campaign for the straw poll in 2007, and received less than 1% of the vote.

Romney didn't campaign this time, and Perry didn't bother to enter - in fact he chose to announce his run on the day of the result. That suggests that this time around, the poll result is not likely to be a good predictor of the caucus winner, let alone the nomination winner.

What it did do, of course, was show up the candidates who were going to struggle in the caucus - those that campaigned hard in the straw poll and still did poorly. Hence Pawlenty's withdrawal. I'm not sure if Huntsman might follow... he did badly, clearly, but did he campaign as hard?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

It would be interesting to see the religious right and the neo-cons go apoplectic if Ron Paul were to win the nomination.

[Ser Greguh]

What makes Perry so frightening as a candidate isn't so much the bare fact that he prayed for rain (although that is still completely bug-fuck crazy) as that he made that rain prayer his official plan for dealing with the drought. Our country may be completely bonkers in terms of the percentage of us that still believe in bronze-age fairytales but I like to think our populace still will reject someone for whom a rain prayer constitutes a legitimate plan A.

[TrueMetis]

What makes Perry so frightening as a candidate isn't so much the bare fact that he prayed for rain (although that is still completely bug-fuck crazy) as that he made that rain prayer his official plan for dealing with the drought. Our country may be completely bonkers in terms of the percentage of us that still believe in bronze-age fairytales but I like to think our populace still will reject someone for whom a rain prayer constitutes a legitimate plan A.

He's also made prayer his plan for fixing the Texan economy, which he fucked up.

[KazigluBey]

He's also made prayer his plan for fixing the Texan economy, which he fucked up.

And he's a serious contender for the president of the US. It's like we're sliding back into the dark ages, it boggles the mind.

[Selmy]

And he's a serious contender for the president of the US. It's like we're sliding back into the dark ages, it boggles the mind.

And Bachmann said life was better for African Americans under slavery, compared to today. So who really knows what she thinks or has planned...?

Seriously though, it's an abysmal GOP field.

[awesome possum]

And he's a serious contender for the president of the US. It's like we're sliding back into the dark ages, it boggles the mind.

Truly, it does. The top contenders are a Mormon who was Governor of one of the most liberal states and while Gov he passed near-universal health care; a guy who looks like a George W. Bush clone but who is fervently religious (as opposed to the conveniently religious Dubya); Michelle Bachmann.

It would be interesting to see the religious right and the neo-cons go apoplectic if Ron Paul were to win the nomination.

If Paul won I'd be tempted to vote for him, because if we're going to go down let's go down spectacularly.

[TheKassi]

And Bachmann said life was better for African Americans under slavery, compared to today. So who really knows what she thinks or has planned...?

Wouldn't happen to have the source would you?

[gomez]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/republicans/8628717/Michele-Bachmann-signs-controversial-slavery-marriage-pact.html

On my IPod, dunno if it'll code the link.

Pretty sue that's what he's referringto, anyway, though I wouldn't be surprised if she's done it again.

[Ser Greguh]

Holy shit. Just when I thought I had a full grasp of her bugfuckery, she yet again goes way beyond what I imagined could be possible for an ostensibly mainstream candidate. That would be astounding in a casual flippant remark ... in a signed statement it truly boggles the mind.

[TheKassi]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/republicans/8628717/Michele-Bachmann-signs-controversial-slavery-marriage-pact.html

On my IPod, dunno if it'll code the link.

Pretty sue that's what he's referringto, anyway, though I wouldn't be surprised if she's done it again.

Thank you for taking the time.

I do not understand the point trying to be made. Are there more households with homosexual parents in the African American community or something?

[Crazydog7]

What was that quote a few threads ago about whoever voted in this latest pack of Tea partiers deserves the government they get to bad the rest of us are stuck with it to.

Bachmann somehow wins the nomination with either Perry or Palin as the running mate I weep for the country. Its going to be a long haul till November 2012.

[mormont]

What makes Perry so frightening as a candidate isn't so much the bare fact that he prayed for rain (although that is still completely bug-fuck crazy) as that he made that rain prayer his official plan for dealing with the drought. Our country may be completely bonkers in terms of the percentage of us that still believe in bronze-age fairytales but I like to think our populace still will reject someone for whom a rain prayer constitutes a legitimate plan A.

Now I'm an atheist myself, but (like Ormond) this fixation on Perry praying for rain strikes me as slightly odd.

What's your Plan A when an entire state desperately needs rain? Buy some? Import some? Make some? What is it that Perry should have been doing, but wasn't doing, because he was relying on the efficacy of prayer instead?

So far as I can see, the sensation here is: 'religious guy in need resorts to prayer'. Well, um... yeah.

There are many other, more worrying things about Perry, I understand - that he was unwilling to sign a stay of execution for a man who was probably innocent, and may have impeded an investigation into the matter, for example. That his economic record is partly based on slashing essential services for the poor. That his record on education is poor. Why fixate on the fact that he prayed for rain?

[Ormond]

Thank you for taking the time.

I do not understand the point trying to be made. Are there more households with homosexual parents in the African American community or something?

Since the group has now removed that sentence from their pledge, I can't be 100% sure of the context.

But usually the reasoning of anti-same-sex-marriage groups for why it should be prohibited is that allowing same sex marriage "devalues" marriage and therefore will make it even less popular with heterosexuals. It's probable that whoever wrote the preamble to the pledge was thinking something like "The African-American community already has a huge proportion of out of wedlock births, and if we allow same sex marriage that will increase even further."

I know it really doesn't make much sense, but the idea that same sex marriage will lead to fewer heterosexuals getting married, and therefore more kids being born to single mothers and raised without fathers, is one of the core arguments of those who try to give a non-religious reason for opposing same-sex marriage.