R+L=J v.16

[kissdbyfire]

I think you are missing the point of the prophecy. Dragons, and the control of them is crucial in all of this. The dragonlords of old Valyria controlled dragons how? My guess, and it is only a guess, is that some of them did so with the same ability we call "warging" when it deals with the Starks and their wolves. It would make sense that the obsession of the Targaryens around keeping their "blood pure" has more to do with maintaining this inherited ability than it does to keeping platinum blond hair and violet eyes. They have lost the ability and have lost their dragons in the story's immediate background, but it is through a marriage of ice and fire - through the melding of those who birth the new dragons and those who bring back the ability of controlling the dragons through warging into them that humanity is saved from the threat of the Others. The PTWP and/or Azhor Ahai are not just a check list of things that happen before they kick the Other's tushes into oblivion. They represent specific abilities that are crucial to controlling the one weapon - dragons - that can bring about victory. Anyway, that's how I see it.

I had always assumed warging is a First Men/CotF thing...

[Alia of the knife]

Good point.

Keeping her at the ToJ with three of the KG signified that he was at least hesitant to bring her north to KL, aside from the obvious allusions throughout Ned's flashbacks to her being with child.

I wonder if perhaps had he succeeded, Rhaegar would have restored Summerhall and moved Lyanna there?

I think Rhaegar would have had to do something like that, because my bet is is that Lyanna would not have wanted to go to KL.

Roberts rememberances of her suggest she definitely liked being free and outdoors, so I think she would have despised Court life, though eventually she may not have a choice unless Rhaegar planned to be gone from Court all the time.

[Alia of the knife]

I think you are missing the point of the prophecy. Dragons, and the control of them is crucial in all of this. The dragonlords of old Valyria controlled dragons how? My guess, and it is only a guess, is that some of them did so with the same ability we call "warging" when it deals with the Starks and their wolves. It would make sense that the obsession of the Targaryens around keeping their "blood pure" has more to do with maintaining this inherited ability than it does to keeping platinum blond hair and violet eyes. They have lost the ability and have lost their dragons in the story's immediate background, but it is through a marriage of ice and fire - through the melding of those who birth the new dragons and those who bring back the ability of controlling the dragons through warging into them that humanity is saved from the threat of the Others. The PTWP and/or Azhor Ahai are not just a check list of things that happen before they kick the Other's tushes into oblivion. They represent specific abilities that are crucial to controlling the one weapon - dragons - that can bring about victory. Anyway, that's how I see it.

I think that is an interesting idea, but my thing is are the Dragons really a force for good, because the Dragons themselves have a pretty bloody track record.

In some ways, I'm rooting for the Maesters at least in their desire to see both forces eliminated.

Oh, and in any evaluation of Rhaegar, I think it is important to start with this - Rhaegar was right. He had some of the details wrong, but he was right that his line is crucial in defeating a threat that overwhelms all other considerations in the story. A crazy, melancholic, dreamer with dreams of grandeur? Well, maybe, but one who sees real threats others can't or won't.

But yet, he didn't see how dangerous his own Father was? (not meaning to be rude, or arguementative), but even Connington alluded to the fact that Rhaegar must have been unwilling to see for some time how mad his Father was.

To your last point, I was talking about Rickard's scheme, not Tywin's. Tywin obviously wants to marry Cersei to Rhaegar, and I don't doubt he harbored hopes even after Rhaegar is married to Elia - given Elia's notoriously poor health. But we also know Tywin considers marrying Jaime to a second daughter of the Riverlands, so it is not out of the question that Rickard could have thought it possible he would have considered Ned as an option for Cersei, especially after the open split that takes place between Aerys and Tywin after Harrenhal. Would Tywin have joined in a conspiracy to oust the Targaryens after all the slights, public and private, that he receives from Aerys? My take is he would in a New York minute if he thought the conspirators would win. King of the Westerlands and revenge over Aerys would have been very tempting.

As to the rest, you are leaving out a third connection here. Not only does Rickard betroth two of his children to two other great houses, but he also fosters Ned with a third. This is more than good luck that he has desirable children. While such may be a consideration in the proposed marriage to Robert, it doesn't hold with Hoster Tully's personality that he is going to marry off Catelyn to Brandon because he is such a swashbuckling, charming fellow. The Lord of Riverrun is making a political alliance that it is important to take note of, not just pleasing his daughter by marrying her off to a handsome well connected guy. There is too much happening here to dismiss Lady Dustin's revelations as just sour grapes, and as to Occam's Razor - well, it just doesn't apply to fantasy literature.

I'd also note that her, meaning Lady Dustin, talk of southern ambitions is tied up into another conspiracy we are told about from another source. That being what the maesters of the citadel are up to as described by Marwyn in the epilogue of A Feast for Crows. Also note that Ser Barristan tells us of Aerys concern for what rebellious lords are up to at Harrenhal and we have plenty of reason to believe this isn't made up out of thin air.

[SFDanny]

I think that is an interesting idea, but my thing is are the Dragons really a force for good, because the Dragons themselves have a pretty bloody track record.

In some ways, I'm rooting for the Maesters at least in their desire to see both forces eliminated.

Good in the sense they are a powerful weapon in the hands of humanity in a war against a foe that would wipe them out. Good in and of themselves? I don't know. Not so good in the hands of people who use them for gaining more power over others.

The maesters certainly have a point, but then the maesters don't believe in the Others. They may change their minds once they are freezing their behinds off and seeing invading zombie armies storming the gates. Tends to change your point of view.

But yet, he didn't see how dangerous his own Father was? (not meaning to be rude, or arguementative), but even Connington alluded to the fact that Rhaegar must have been unwilling to see for some time how mad his Father was.

Two different things. I think he had to know his father was losing his grip in some ways. His appearance and his paranoia had to have many people worrying, including Rhaegar, but that's different from thinking he is dangerous or totally unconnected to reality. What we know of Aerys shows he made an example of those who held him hostage in Duskendale in some horrific ways, but he is not out of line with his contemporaries in dealing with rebellion. Consider the Tarbecks and the Reynes. No, I think Aerys was likely together enough to understand some vary real threats to his rule and competent enough in dealing with his subordinates that he was able to keep his throne safe for many years. When he cooks Rickard in his armor and forces Brandon to strangle himself, then everyone must have known he has lost it. That is after, however, Rhaegar runs off with Lyanna most likely thinking his father and Rickard will have to accept them after a while when things "cool down." Little did anyone think Aerys and Brandon would react the way they did. Anyway, I can see why any son, or daughter for that matter, would have a very tough time deciding to pronounce your father insane and forcibly remove them from dealing with the rest of the world. When it comes to absolute monarchs it seems to get tougher on an exponential scale.

[CJS 2207]

I think Rhaegar would have had to do something like that, because my bet is is that Lyanna would not have wanted to go to KL.

Roberts rememberances of her suggest she definitely liked being free and outdoors, so I think she would have despised Court life, though eventually she may not have a choice unless Rhaegar planned to be gone from Court all the time.

Well, we know from, I believe, Ser Barristan's recollections that Rhaegar haunted the grounds of Summerhall, so my guess is that he would be there rather often, but I do not know for certain if it would have warranted keeping Lyanna there permanently. However, if forced to make an assumption, I would hazard a guess and say he quite possibly would, since we know that he was drawn to the place, and we also know that his grandfather (and great-grandfather perhaps?), among others, attempted some sort of sorcery that ended badly (dragon resurrections perchance?).

Could Rhaegar have been planning to pick up where his ancestors left off in Summerhall...?

[Alia of the knife]

Good in the sense they are a powerful weapon in the hands of humanity in a war against a foe that would wipe them out. Good in and of themselves? I don't know. Not so good in the hands of people who use them for gaining more power over others.

The maesters certainly have a point, but then the maesters don't believe in the Others. They may change their minds once they are freezing their behinds off and seeing invading zombie armies storming the gates. Tends to change your point of view.

Two different things. I think he had to know his father was losing his grip in some ways. His appearance and his paranoia had to have many people worrying, including Rhaegar, but that's different from thinking he is dangerous or totally unconnected to reality. What we know of Aerys shows he made an example of those who held him hostage in Duskendale in some horrific ways, but he is not out of line with his contemporaries in dealing with rebellion. Consider the Tarbecks and the Reynes. No, I think Aerys was likely together enough to understand some vary real threats to his rule and competent enough in dealing with his subordinates that he was able to keep his throne safe for many years. When he cooks Rickard in his armor and forces Brandon to strangle himself, then everyone must have known he has lost it. That is after, however, Rhaegar runs off with Lyanna most likely thinking his father and Rickard will have to accept them after a while when things "cool down." Little did anyone think Aerys and Brandon would react the way they did. Anyway, I can see why any son, or daughter for that matter, would have a very tough time deciding to pronounce your father insane and forcibly remove them from dealing with the rest of the world. When it comes to absolute monarchs it seems to get tougher on an exponential scale.

Valid points.

Thanks :)

[Alia of the knife]

Well, we know from, I believe, Ser Barristan's recollections that Rhaegar haunted the grounds of Summerhall, so my guess is that he would be there rather often, but I do not know for certain if it would have warranted keeping Lyanna there permanently. However, if forced to make an assumption, I would hazard a guess and say he quite possibly would, since we know that he was drawn to the place, and we also know that his grandfather (and great-grandfather perhaps?), among others, attempted some sort of sorcery that ended badly (dragon resurrections perchance?).

Could Rhaegar have been planning to pick up where his ancestors left off in Summerhall...?

It's possible, though it's hard to know if he would try his hand at that sort of thing, or if it's because he was born at Summerhall, seemed to love it there, and might want to secret his beloved away, knowing she'd be safer and happier there.

I could be both.

[kg1982]

Oh, and in any evaluation of Rhaegar, I think it is important to start with this - Rhaegar was right. He had some of the details wrong, but he was right that his line is crucial in defeating a threat that overwhelms all other considerations in the story. A crazy, melancholic, dreamer with dreams of grandeur? Well, maybe, but one who sees real threats others can't or won't.

Rhaegar was right because Rhaegar created the conditions where PTWP was necessary. All the prophecies in ASOIAF are self fulfilling, so I think that it would be utterly awesome and fitting for the main prophecy to end that way. Yes, Rhaegar's relationship with Lyanna led to the PTWP and created the conditions where Jon happened to be in the right place and the right time to assume that mantle. However, Rhaegar also created great instability in the kingdom by running off with Lyanna and ignoring the political realities of the situation before it was too late. Rhaegar's actions during the rebellion were the "for want of a nail" in the whole situation.

IMO, Rhaegar gets too much of a pass among some book fans. His actions running off with the high lord's daughter from one of the most traditional families in Westros were incredibly rash.

To your last point, I was talking about Rickard's scheme, not Tywin's. Tywin obviously wants to marry Cersei to Rhaegar, and I don't doubt he harbored hopes even after Rhaegar is married to Elia - given Elia's notoriously poor health. But we also know Tywin considers marrying Jaime to a second daughter of the Riverlands, so it is not out of the question that Rickard could have thought it possible he would have considered Ned as an option for Cersei, especially after the open split that takes place between Aerys and Tywin after Harrenhal.

Ned was the second son. He would inherit nothing when Rickard died. I highly doubt that Tywin to go from insisting that Cersei be queen to being okay with marrying his precious prized pawn to a second son.

As to the rest, you are leaving out a third connection here. Not only does Rickard betroth two of his children to two other great houses, but he also fosters Ned with a third. This is more than good luck that he has desirable children. While such may be a consideration in the proposed marriage to Robert, it doesn't hold with Hoster Tully's personality that he is going to marry off Catelyn to Brandon because he is such a swashbuckling, charming fellow. The Lord of Riverrun is making a political alliance that it is important to take note of, not just pleasing his daughter by marrying her off to a handsome well connected guy. There is too much happening here to dismiss Lady Dustin's revelations as just sour grapes, and as to Occam's Razor - well, it just doesn't apply to fantasy literature.

Lord Tully did have ambitions in my opinion... He wanted to be a major player in Westros affairs; however, I don't think that he cared whether the Targaryens or the Baratheons were kings. He just wanted a seat at the big table, which is something that he felt the Tullys had been denied. Additionally, given how vulnerable the Rivelands are to invasion, marrying his children off to other great houses was a wise strategic decision on Lord Tully's part.

Lord Stark might have been thinking the exact same way. He had two very good game pieces, so why not get better marriage alliances than a bannerman's daughter. And I do think that the personalities of Brandon and Lyanna helped secure the marriage contracts. Someone like Lord Tully might decide that Brandon Stark was a good bet despite being from the North because he was a charismatic fellow. Tully was looking to expand his influence in Westros as a whole and was more apt to go for a young man who he thinks might be a powerbroker in the future.

So yes there was politics involved, but I highly doubt that there was a grand conspiracy to overthrow the Targaryens as a whole although Rhaegar was likely planning something against Aerys. Aerys was just that paranoid that he took the normal wheeling and dealing that nobles do to secure their territory and expand their influence at court and decided that it was a plot to overthrow him. Rhaegar was off obsessing about his prophecy rather than getting rid of his father and let him.

[ARYa_Nym]

I don't think you can blame one person for forcing the PWWP prophecy. If this person is supposed to wake dragons from stone, (Dany) then why not blame the maesters who may have been responsible for the death of the dragons? If they hadn't died the Targaryens wouldn't have been trying to force them to come back.

[kg1982]

I don't think you can blame one person for forcing the PWWP prophecy. If this person is supposed to wake dragons from stone, (Dany) then why not blame the maesters who may have been responsible for the death of the dragons? If they hadn't died the Targaryens wouldn't have been trying to force them to come back.

1. Rhaegar is the one who ultimately created the chaos, so Rhaegar is the one who is ultimately responsible.

2. There would be no need for dragons if there had been stability in Westros. There is a huge magical Wall up North protecting Westros from the Others as well as the Stark family.

3. I do think that the masters are trying to banish magic from Westros and likely killed off the dragons. But I don't think that is a bad thing. Dragons can be used for great evil as well as great good. The dragons basically died out after the Dance of the Dragons, which consumed the Targaryens and probably ruined Westros. Perhaps the masters weren't too keen on another Targaryen civil war with both sides ravaging the countryside with the medieval equivalent of nukes.

I think that the masters, like most of Westros, fails to realize that dragons are now needed. But I think that it is difficult to ascribe an evil motivations to their "conspiracy." I also don't think that we can say that they cooked up some grand conspiracy to overthrow the Targaryens based on the words of a spurned woman. It's more likely that Lord Stark was making the sorts of alliances that lords routinely made during the Middle Ages.

[ARYa_Nym]

1) This is not the first time in 8,000 years that there has been chaos in Westeros. The Andal Invasion for example created instability and caused the COTF to isolate themselves from humans. Chaos can't be the sole reason.

2) Wights are killed by fire. Dragons could be an effective weapon whether Westeros was stable or not.

3) Destroying magic would be a bad thing. We know that it's not just the wall that keeps the Others from passing. There are magical barriers in place.

[Winterfell is Burning]

Rhaegar was right because Rhaegar created the conditions where PTWP was necessary. All the prophecies in ASOIAF are self fulfilling, so I think that it would be utterly awesome and fitting for the main prophecy to end that way. Yes, Rhaegar's relationship with Lyanna led to the PTWP and created the conditions where Jon happened to be in the right place and the right time to assume that mantle. However, Rhaegar also created great instability in the kingdom by running off with Lyanna and ignoring the political realities of the situation before it was too late. Rhaegar's actions during the rebellion were the "for want of a nail" in the whole situation.

If it's true that Jon is the PTWP, then Rhaegar played a part in furfill the prophecy, sure, but let's not forget that the best thing Rhaegar ever did for Jon was...to die. That allowed him to be raised by Ned, learn things he would never do if he was member of a family that considered itself superior to the rest of the mankind, and would never go to the Wall.

Also, Rhaegar clearly expected a girl to be the 3rd head of the dragon, so it's likely that if Jon was raised by him he wouldn't have put much thought in to him being the PTWP, and quite possibly would try to have a 4th child so he could have his Visenya.

IMO, Rhaegar gets too much of a pass among some book fans. His actions running off with the high lord's daughter from one of the most traditional families in Westros were incredibly rash.

Exactly. Even with a sane father, he would have started a war anyway, and I wouldn't be surprised if he knew that, and just thought that, because of the prophecies (and because he's the blood of the dragon), there was no way he could lose.

Lord Tully did have ambitions in my opinion... He wanted to be a major player in Westros affairs; however, I don't think that he cared whether the Targaryens or the Baratheons were kings. He just wanted a seat at the big table, which is something that he felt the Tullys had been denied. Additionally, given how vulnerable the Rivelands are to invasion, marrying his children off to other great houses was a wise strategic decision on Lord Tully's part.

Lord Stark might have been thinking the exact same way. He had two very good game pieces, so why not get better marriage alliances than a bannerman's daughter. And I do think that the personalities of Brandon and Lyanna helped secure the marriage contracts. Someone like Lord Tully might decide that Brandon Stark was a good bet despite being from the North because he was a charismatic fellow. Tully was looking to expand his influence in Westros as a whole and was more apt to go for a young man who he thinks might be a powerbroker in the future.

So yes there was politics involved, but I highly doubt that there was a grand conspiracy to overthrow the Targaryens as a whole although Rhaegar was likely planning something against Aerys. Aerys was just that paranoid that he took the normal wheeling and dealing that nobles do to secure their territory and expand their influence at court and decided that it was a plot to overthrow him. Rhaegar was off obsessing about his prophecy rather than getting rid of his father and let him.

Yes, I heard some theories that Rickard's goal was to make the North independent, but that wouldn't make much sense, since he was making the North more involved in the affairs of the realm, not less, and seemingly the North was mostly left off alone after Aegon. What he was trying was to unite parts of the realm that weren't well represented in KL (unlike Dorne, Westerlands and the Reach), but there wasn't any rebellion in sight.

[kg1982]

1) This is not the first time in 8,000 years that there has been chaos in Westeros. The Andal Invasion for example created instability and caused the COTF to isolate themselves from humans. Chaos can't be the sole reason.

2) Wights are killed by fire. Dragons could be an effective weapon whether Westeros was stable or not.

3) Destroying magic would be a bad thing. We know that it's not just the wall that keeps the Others from passing. There are magical barriers in place.

1. No.. but there is a corollary between the extreme instability and the vulnerability of Westros to the Others. Without a Game of Thrones, then the Watch wouldn't be pushed to political action and there would be Starks in Winterfell as the first line of defense against the Others.

2. There'd be no need for dragons if the Wall stayed put.

3. Not necessarily. Magic like everything in ASOIAF is a very gray topic. There can be good use for magic (the Wall), but there could also be bad uses of magic. Dragons aren't necessarily a force for good. They're basically the nukes of Westros. Who'd want to put nukes in the hands of a family tending toward insanity?

[Son of Jon Snarkgaryen]

I had always assumed warging is a First Men/CotF thing...

I agree. Dany seems to be able to control (sort of) three dragons, without demonstrating any warging ability whatsoever - well, until she made the stupid mistake of locking them up and allowing them to become savage and unchecked, anyway... I think warging is strictly a First Men/CotF thing, or hell, maybe strictly a Stark/CotF thing, since we haven't seen any evidence that any other Northerners can pull it off.

[ARYa_Nym]

1. No.. but there is a corollary between the extreme instability and the vulnerability of Westros to the Others. Without a Game of Thrones, then the Watch wouldn't be pushed to political action and there would be Starks in Winterfell as the first line of defense against the Others.

2. There'd be no need for dragons if the Wall stayed put.

3. Not necessarily. Magic like everything in ASOIAF is a very gray topic. There can be good use for magic (the Wall), but there could also be bad uses of magic. Dragons aren't necessarily a force for good. They're basically the nukes of Westros. Who'd want to put nukes in the hands of a family tending toward insanity?

1) KL hasn't cared about the Wall for years. & it's even said in the vows that NW takes no part. They killed Jon for caring about what happens in the North. & the North wasn't worried about a threat from the Wall while Ned was in charge.

2) How do we know that it matters if the Wall stays put? The Others could find another way around the Wall. Perhaps the magic stops working, they use the ice spiders, or they go through water.

3) The maesters wanted to stop all forms of magic so that would include the magic that keeps the Others contained so they would have been helping them. The Faith was installed after the Andals invaded and they started to cut down weirwood trees. They could be helpful against the Others.

[Gala]

I absolutely agree with this. I think Rhaegar was mostly a rational person who knew his father was insane and was, apparently, plotting to remove him (Aerys was paranoid but probably had reason to be). People who are manic depressive are prone to grandiose gestures at times, and I can see Rhaegar's obsession with the prophesy tying into his actions regarding Lyanna Stark. I personally believe he loved her and she loved him, but that doesn't mean she wasn't "abducted" as far as the rest were concerned. And being in a manic phase might cause an otherwise rational Rhaegar to not think about what his actions might cause.

:agree:

My personal opinion is that he wasn't just obsessed with prophecy! I think, as he was depressed and a good boy for all his life, may be with Lyanna he was, in fact, for the first time and really happy with her (sort of Romeo and Juliette only older), he simply couldn't give her away to the person like Robert - womanizer and so on. This kind of feeling would explain his 'madness'.

[Alia of the knife]

:agree:

My personal opinion is that he wasn't just obsessed with prophecy! I think, as he was depressed and a good boy for all his life, may be with Lyanna he was, in fact, for the first time and really happy with her (sort of Romeo and Juliette only older), he simply couldn't give her away to the person like Robert - womanizer and so on. This kind of feeling would explain his 'madness'.

I think you nailed it, because the more I think about it and read between the lines, I think this is more the case.

After all, other than having a mind towards the prophesy, what was he doing in real terms?

As I asked in a post before, did he lend his name and influence to fortifying the wall with better men and arms? Did he ever even see it, or go North?

I think it may have been 5% prophesy, (in that it became more signifigant when he met Lyanna), and 95% her.

And I too think he was a good boy all his life as well, and just finally had a "who gives a crap moment," especially as his nutty Father didn't appreciate his being dutiful, so I think he was going for his happiness when he had the chance, and being the Targaryen he is, went all the way, so of course he wasn't giving her up.

Just as Rhaegar could if he were so inclined, Robert too could have any girl in the Kingdom, and the gossip as well as Roberts reputation would be all over KL, so Rhaegar probably knew Robert wouldn't love Lyanna in the long run as he would, so he probably felt he deserved her more.

Selmy states: "Prince Rhaegar loved his lady Lyanna, and thousands died for it."

Note the "his" in that statement.

I'd say his feelings for her, (even in public), were not a secret to anyone, especially between Harrenhal and KL.

They just probably didn't know the how, when, since it's speculated she was the KOTLT.

[Rose of Winterfell]

Rhaegar was right because Rhaegar created the conditions where PTWP was necessary. All the prophecies in ASOIAF are self fulfilling, so I think that it would be utterly awesome and fitting for the main prophecy to end that way. Yes, Rhaegar's relationship with Lyanna led to the PTWP and created the conditions where Jon happened to be in the right place and the right time to assume that mantle. However, Rhaegar also created great instability in the kingdom by running off with Lyanna and ignoring the political realities of the situation before it was too late. Rhaegar's actions during the rebellion were the "for want of a nail" in the whole situation.

I don't see how Rhaegar created the situation where the PTWP is necessary-the prince is meant to lead the fight against the Others and beat them back/defeat them -Rhaegar did not cause the reemergence of the Others (unless there's some prophecy/connection we don't yet know like 'when the Targaryen and Stark lines become one the dead will wake again' (ew, that wording is terrible)). The Others were on the march before the events of AGOT started (and prior to that, under Jon Arryn's Handship, the realm was arguably pretty stable); Night's Watch rangers had been disappearing for months-and the gods only know how long the Wildlings had been fighting them off for... Mance had time to unite them all under his rule and prepare to attack the Wall by aCoK, so, given the 'wild', unpredictable nature of the free folk, that suggests a while, maybe even a year or two.

[LadyMary]

I don't see how Rhaegar created the situation where the PTWP is necessary-the prince is meant to lead the fight against the Others and beat them back/defeat them -Rhaegar did not cause the reemergence of the Others (unless there's some prophecy/connection we don't yet know like 'when the Targaryen and Stark lines become one the dead will wake again' (ew, that wording is terrible)). The Others were on the march before the events of AGOT started (and prior to that, under Jon Arryn's Handship, the realm was arguably pretty stable); Night's Watch rangers had been disappearing for months-and the gods only know how long the Wildlings had been fighting them off for... Mance had time to unite them all under his rule and prepare to attack the Wall by aCoK, so, given the 'wild', unpredictable nature of the free folk, that suggests a while, maybe even a year or two.

I don't believe the prophesy was that specific - about the PTWP fighting a war against the Others - was it?

[Son of Jon Snarkgaryen]

As much as I like R+L=J, I'm not entirely convinced that R+L was fully consensual, or that Rhaegar was as noble as everyone thought.