[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 5

[MikeDC]

Mance Rayder

~ Motive: Unsure.

~ Means: Ravens from Winterfell.

~ Pros: Lack of a seal (!) suggests that the wax was on hand, but not the authentic letter. Mance is also the only character to definitively know all of the information in the letter that the reader knows of. Mance was in Winterfell at the time as Abel the Bard, had freedom of the castle and would not put it past him to be able to send a bird by some means (threatening, spearwives sleeping with whoever's tending them, etc.)

~ Cons: But why write it? I speculated on the motive, but at the end of the day, we have a very weak motive for Mance which is his biggest knock. Fortunately, not knowing the motive doesn't mean he has none, just the reader isn't aware.

~ Odds: The fun pick; who doesn't like Mance's antipathy and grudging respect for the Boy Commander?

I've always felt the motivation for Mance was pretty obvious to me. His primary goal as King-Beyond-the-Wall was to get his Wildling army past the Night's Watch and into Westeros. Like Stannis, Mance knows Jon commands the loyalty of many Wildlings at the expense of the Night's Watch.

I count it as a strike against the possibility of Stannis being the author of the letter because Stannis primarily wanted to legitimize Jon and use him to win the loyalty of the North men. But Stannis understands by now that:

1. The Northern lords and NW hate the Wildlings.

2. The Northern lords and NW hate deserters.

3. They're often not very fond of bastards.

Thus, I think that goading Jon to Winterfell is a very questionable move for Stannis, because it would essentially be goading a bastard deserter from the NW to lead an army of Wildlings down onto Winterfell.

On the other hand, these things all work towards Mace's advantage under most any circumstance I can think of. As it stands, the best case for him is that Stannis knows he's there and doesn't kill him. There are lots of worse cases, predicated on the Bolton's getting ahold of him, Stannis burning him, or just being stuck in the midst of a completely hostile host no matter who wins.

If Jon shows up with a sizeable force of wildlings, that changes the game somewhat in favor of Mance. At the very least, it means that whomever beats Bolton, Stannis or the Northern Lords, can't simply rub him out. More optimistically, if all the parties at Winterfell are completely decimated, it might allow Mance to actually take control.

[alienarea]

We don't know about the timelines. What if the letter was written after the battle of ice?

Consider this: Like it has been speculated, Stannis has prepared a trap for the Freys, the Manderly's turn on them (because Davos was the Hooded Man and gave Manderly the go), they return to Winterfell with some dead Karstarks and Lightbringer as proof of Stannis death. They learn that Roose and his troops have retreated to the Dreadfort. Stannis, who is disguised, writes the letter with Mance to get all their ones away from the wall. That plan fails.

[bemused]

I like Stannis best. I'm sure he must know about Mance/Abel ..and he has Theon to provide info re: spearwives and their number as well as first hand knowledge of what Ramsay was likely to do with them ( and how he would respond to the escape of Theon and "Arya" ) .. Knowing this , Stannis' prime motive would be to warn Jon that Ramsay was coming.( Everything else could be sorted out after Ramsay had been stopped / killed / defeated. )

Stannis doesn't have his own ravens, but I feel he will be able to use the ravens brought by the Dreadfort maester in his camp. Those ravens aren't behaving like Mormont's raven for nothing ..we had Stannis' discussion with the maester about raven destinations to make it seem unlikely on the surface ... but we also know that Bran and Bloodraven can and do control ravens.

Even if it couldn't be done in one step from so far away , we've been shown a pathway ..through the weirwood on the island ..to the raven pecking at the burned corpse ..to the caged ravens.

Because we have reason to believe Stannis intends to fake his own death, it means that if he wrote the letter, it was sent either before the battle ,or before he managed to fake his way into WF.

That doesn't mean that I would rule out the other main candidates , they each have their points in favour.

But the other option that's mentioned less frequently is that the letter was intercepted at the wall by Bowen's group ( led or strongly influenced by Thorne ) ..that it has been at least read , and perhaps altered before Jon receives it. That would explain the smear of wax , and the repeated insulting use of "bastard".

We don't actually know how Ramsay would use it, we can only imagine, ( plausibly enough ) that he would use it that venomous way. We know Mance uses it all the time , but in a less vicious way . It harks back to Jon's first conversation with Mance, and seems a sort of inside , sardonic joke with an edge. There may be a touch of resentment in his use , since Mance , a bastard himself , bought Jon's reason for deserting ...but I've never felt the same level of scorn and hatred in Mance's use ,as what is clear in the letter. Stannis ( cold fish that he is ) has used it as a mere statement of fact... We've only actually seen Thorne use it repeatedly in a derisive, goading way. Even when it doesn't always seem to work , he won't give up on it, and no doubt hopes it will influence others' opinion of Jon , as well as hopefully get a rise out of him.

If the letter could have been added to, it's not necessary for any of the possible originators to know all of what's in the letter , or to have made quite so many demands.. so I think this , too, is worth considering.

We simply can't say with absolute certainty who the author is.

But no, Mance doesn't know just how much support Jon has among the wildlings. When he left the wall , Tormund's people had not come in. None of the wildlings at the wall had sworn directly to Jon at that juncture, and they numbered only about half as many as Tormund's group. Stannis is in a better position to know, since Tycho was still at the wall when they arrived , and we don't know how much he witnessed , or if the letter he brought from Jon was written before Jon hammered out his agreement with Tormund or after. ( My guess is after ) Mance may feel that only he can truly command the wildlings' loyalty .. but I don't think that's the case any longer.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I think Ramsay sent the letter. Ramsay would be severely mad if his bride and Theon got away. He would likely act stupidly, and quickly. He wouldn't bother with an official seal, could flay all the information out off a spearwife, and get Jon to come to him. Ramsay would assume fake Arya would run straight to the Wall and not to a war camp. If Jon is not there, it would be easy to get fake Arya back. Also, with the Trojan Horse trick where Stannis is assumed dead, it would make sense with the letter. It also fits Ramsay's character to just screw everything up.

[Rob Snow]

But technically Theon is NOT a turncloak. He was a ward of the Starks, a hostage in fact, he hadn't sworn allegiance to them.

Whereas Roose Bolton HAD! He was a Stark bannerman, and that oath of fealty applied to Ramsay as well, bastard or not.

Whether any of that would cut any mustard with Stannis or the Northmen I wouldn't know.

Actually, Theon is a turncloak. He swore allegiance to Robb when he first called his banners and marched South. Theon has also never denies it. He has objected to being called kinslayer, because the boys he killed were only "miller's boys."

Roose is a turncloak as well, and all the North knows it. Wyman Manderly says as much when he talks to Davos in the Wolf'd Den. Manderly will turn on him when he confronts Stannis (provided he can convince Stannis that Davos is still alive), as well as the Umbers.

[intheswamp]

When I first read the letter scene, I immediately took Ramsay out of the running for its writer. Every time we've seen another Ramsay letter, we get a description of his very unique writing style: brown/bloody ink, crazy slanted handwriting, and skin. Jon is usually one of the best characters at picking up the little details in things -- "A bastard had to learn to notice things". If he doesn't notice these details, then the letter was probably fairly standard. Now, that might not mean much, but I can't shake that first impression of the letter.

[bemused]

Theon swears to Robb and calls him brother and umm... way back in AGoT , Theon tells Catelyn that Ned has been a second father to him , as well . Turncloak is obvious . He is.

But the lines are meant to be blurred around kinslayer and hostage vs. ward.

[bobbybuilderton]

I'm late in the game, but I said somewhere else that I think Manderly wrote and sent the letter. I think he sent it to the wall in order to get Jon to attack so that Ramsay would be approached from two directions. Also, so that Jon could be there and speak up for it being a fake Arya. Jon strongly resembles Ned, right? Or at least looks like a Stark. He knows if Jon attacks, the Boltons will have an even harder time defending and also is at risk of having the fake Arya outed. He may know that Ramsay responds negatively to being called a bastard, and so he thinks the same might work to provoke Jon.

If Mance picked up the hints from the songs Manderly requested, and realized Manderly's "he would have grown up to be a Frey" comment, he may have revealed who he was.

I don't know, I really need to reread DwD

[Cybvep]

Everybody seems to be convinced that the Boltons will lose. I'm sure that Stannis will beat the armies in the field, but how is he supposed to take Winterfell? Treachery seems to be the only option, but I wouldn't be surprised if Roose simply closed the gates and told everyone else to fuck themselves. He will have a better chance to survive with fewer, but more loyal men. Oh, and if he rids himself of his problematic allies and his stupid bastard son in the process, then that's even better. It would actually be rather convenient. Then what? What will Stannis do?

[bemused]

The questions then are - What has the Northern Conspiracy been planning ? Is there an entrance through the crypts ? Have they been planning all along to take WF from the inside , regardless of what Stannis does ?

[Leonardo]

I'm late in the game, but I said somewhere else that I think Manderly wrote and sent the letter. I think he sent it to the wall in order to get Jon to attack so that Ramsay would be approached from two directions. Also, so that Jon could be there and speak up for it being a fake Arya. Jon strongly resembles Ned, right? Or at least looks like a Stark. He knows if Jon attacks, the Boltons will have an even harder time defending and also is at risk of having the fake Arya outed. He may know that Ramsay responds negatively to being called a bastard, and so he thinks the same might work to provoke Jon.

If Mance picked up the hints from the songs Manderly requested, and realized Manderly's "he would have grown up to be a Frey" comment, he may have revealed who he was.

I don't know, I really need to reread DwD

Same about rereading, but I really like the idea of Ramsay not sending the letter. However, the letter was pretty in character with him hehe

Everybody seems to be convinced that the Boltons will lose. I'm sure that Stannis will beat the armies in the field, but how is he supposed to take Winterfell? Treachery seems to be the only option, but I wouldn't be surprised if Roose simply closed the gates and told everyone else to fuck themselves. He will have a better chance to survive with fewer, but more loyal men. Oh, and if he rids himself of his problematic allies and his stupid bastard son in the process, then that's even better. It would actually be rather convenient. Then what? What will Stannis do?

Aye I think this is rather likely. The Manderlys and such may not bend to Stannis either, and then he will have to do battle with them, and on and on...

I mean unless Stannis is all gung-ho about seating Rickon in Winterfell to shut everyone up hehe.

[Slayer of Lies]

Any interested Theon I / Bastard Letter unravelers, a groat for your thoughts over here:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/89103-asha-wrote-the-bastard-letter-theon-i-twow-spoilers/#entry4528285

While there are many great Theon I subjects, I primarily started a separate thread to keep the focus on the potential of Asha as author of the Letter, which (if you think is plausible) has an obvious ripple effect into a great many things.

ETA: Many thanks for your consideration.

[mrlukeduke]

When I first read the letter scene, I immediately took Ramsay out of the running for its writer. Every time we've seen another Ramsay letter, we get a description of his very unique writing style: brown/bloody ink, crazy slanted handwriting, and skin. Jon is usually one of the best characters at picking up the little details in things -- "A bastard had to learn to notice things". If he doesn't notice these details, then the letter was probably fairly standard. Now, that might not mean much, but I can't shake that first impression of the letter.

Where is it that Ramsay used blood? Would like to read that.

I thought brown was normal for drying ink? Look: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/68/Eisengallustinte_selbstgemacht_schriftbild.jpg

He only used skin because he had his Reek now; it was a threat to his enemies with a nasty surprise, the skin of their "prince". He doesn't do it "all the time". It was just a threat to the iron born (a promise he delivered on), and proof of Theon's capture.

[Brother Seamus]

Stannis knows about Mance. If you look back at all his conversations with Jon since the battle at the wall , and at how Mel and Mance don't tell Jon outright that he didn't know ,it seems very very likely that he knows .

I assumed stannis knew, just because mel is his ally.

[bemused]

mrlukeduke .. the letter that Asha recieved and the wedding announcement both mentioned Ramsay writing in blood ( and perhaps even the letter Cat recieves before the RW...can't check right now ).I believe she also recieved a little scrap of skin... Asha's even says "I write this in the blood of Ironmen" or words to that effect.

I believe there's more than one reference throughout the books to "Maester's black" being an ink specifically used by maesters...

[blackhawk127]

If stannis were to kill theon now it would be a pretty big mistake, he should wait at least in his mind till winterfell is taken. Remember theon has lived in winterfell for most of his life and managed to take it albeit lightly defended, with only a few men. This shows theon has crucial tactical info on possibly entering winterfell undetected.

IMHO the most likely person who wrote the letter is ramsay, he has almost no clue where theon and arya are but its likely in his mind that arya escaping would head to her only living relative Jon Snow, so he sends the letter to draw snow out.

[bogdevil]

IMHO the most likely person who wrote the letter is ramsay, he has almost no clue where theon and arya are but its likely in his mind that arya escaping would head to her only living relative Jon Snow, so he sends the letter to draw snow out.

Except it is Jeyne Poole not Arya and Ramsay knows that. Now Jeyne might still run to Jon since he is probably still the closest thing to a living relative she has, but she never liked Jon much. Also I don't know why it would make sense for Theon to run to Jon. Theon is assumed to be the killer of two of Jon's brothers and abandoned Robb and sacked his castle behind his back. Why would Jon receive him warmly? Theon might go to Jon to set the record straight about Bran and Rickon, ask for forgiveness, and hope Jon would give him a swift death, but those reasons would not be apparant to Ramsay.

[blackhawk127]

theon has no where to run i never said he would go to jon, we see from this chapter stannis isnt letting him go which is a good move, however jeyne is sent to the wall along with the iron bank rep.

[~No One~]

The questions then are - What has the Northern Conspiracy been planning ? Is there an entrance through the crypts ? Have they been planning all along to take WF from the inside , regardless of what Stannis does ?

At the moment, I'm pretty sure, Stannis doesn't know that Manderly is a good guy. Manderly is marching on him, and Stannis thinks he beheaded his Onion Knight.

I think Manderly will try to join forces with Stannis, but Stannis will ask for some sort of proof that he's on his side and that Davos is still alive. Manderly will say he's gone to save Rickon, Stannis thinks this is BS since everyone thinks Rickon is dead, and then maybe Theon will pipe in, and start to redeem himself. He can vouch for Manderly. That'll be the start of their partnership.

As for getting into Winterfell, well, Theon knows about the passage, doesn't he? I believe he will be more instrumental to the Winterfell attack than anyone knows.

I also think the pink letter, written by Ramsey ("I want my Reek back!") was penned after Theon's escape, and Mance's subsequent capture. He makes up Stannis's defeat, which we know is false, to put more pressure on Jon to give up "Arya". I guess either Mance told Ramsey they were headed for the Wall, or Ramsey assumed when he found Mance was behind it.

[~No One~]

Also I don't know why it would make sense for Theon to run to Jon. Theon is assumed to be the killer of two of Jon's brothers and abandoned Robb and sacked his castle behind his back. Why would Jon receive him warmly? Theon might go to Jon to set the record straight about Bran and Rickon, ask for forgiveness, and hope Jon would give him a swift death, but those reasons would not be apparant to Ramsay.

How is Theon going anywhere? Sorry, maybe I'm completely mistaken, but doesn't Stannis threaten to kill him by the weirwood tree?

I could have read it wrong, but I think this is so. Theon's redemption will be through revealing that Bran and Rickon got away, and that there's a secret way into Winterfell.