[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 5

[bemused]

Theon doesn't know about any secret passage. The show confused the issue by having maester Luwin tell him there was one. But in the books no-one knows. We have just been given enough hints to suspect one exists. Only BR/CoTF could remember and have passed the knowledge to someone ( my guess would be Benjen )

Stannis says Theon is worth more to him alive at the moment. He believes / assumes the Northerners are going to demand Theon's head , but he hasn't actually met with them yet... I feel sure they'll want to have Theon taken to the tree , like Asha , but then all bets are off.

[Ser Oswell]

What puzzles me is how Bolton sent the Manderly forces along with the Freys to beat Stannis. He knows that Manderly is up to something and hates the Freys and by sending them out to Stannis he has as good as gifted Manderlys forces to Stannis and sent the Frey forces to their Death. And as soon as it is revealed that Arya is fake, most of the northern lords except for the Dustin lady will stop supporting him and may even revolt against him, They have no love for Bolton and nothing but loathe and disgust for Freys and with Tywin dead and none of the southerners to help him i would be really surprised if Ramsey and Roose survive TWOW.

[blackhawk127]

Bolton is under the assumption that manderly beheaded davos and put it on a spike, in his mind they would have no reason to love each other and he can expect stannis to want to respond for the massacre of his hand. The tension in the room deals with whether manderly can convince stannis davos is off looking for rickon, and theon hasnt been nailed to a tree and can confirm rickon being alive. I would expect something along the lines of the freys attacking and manderly's forces taking them from behind, that will atleast give stannis a moment pause so he doesnt outright attack the northmen on sight. The other question is if Manderly himself is traveling with his forces theres a bit of a storm out and fatso isnt really a good complement to a war party, if hes in winterfell its a big risk if a frey can get back and warn bolton.

[bogdevil]

How is Theon going anywhere? Sorry, maybe I'm completely mistaken, but doesn't Stannis threaten to kill him by the weirwood tree?

I could have read it wrong, but I think this is so. Theon's redemption will be through revealing that Bran and Rickon got away, and that there's a secret way into Winterfell.

I was responding to a post about ramsay writing the letter and not knowing where he and fArya went, going with the assumption that Ramsay wouldn't know that Stannis captured theon. The other poster said that Ramsay would assume Arya would run to Jon. I was simply arguing against that notion. I realize he is Stannis' captive now and not going anywhere.

Theon and fArya escaped together, so a writer from within Winterfell would probably assume they stayed together, thus the letter to Jon demanding them both back. I was just pointing out that it doesn't make much sense for Ramsay to write the letter because he knows: 1) it is Jeyne Poole not Arya, 2) Theon knows it isn't Arya and 3) Theon and Jon aren't on friendly terms right now. So Theon running to Jon didn't make much sense even from Ramsay's POV.

[Ser Oswell]

Bolton is under the assumption that manderly beheaded davos and put it on a spike, in his mind they would have no reason to love each other and he can expect stannis to want to respond for the massacre of his hand. The tension in the room deals with whether manderly can convince stannis davos is off looking for rickon, and theon hasnt been nailed to a tree and can confirm rickon being alive. I would expect something along the lines of the freys attacking and manderly's forces taking them from behind, that will atleast give stannis a moment pause so he doesnt outright attack the northmen on sight. The other question is if Manderly himself is traveling with his forces theres a bit of a storm out and fatso isnt really a good complement to a war party, if hes in winterfell its a big risk if a frey can get back and warn bolton.

The thing is ,not all of Manderlys forces are at WF.He only took around 200-300 and the rest are at White Harbour along with Robett Glover. Davos has been gone for almost half of DWD. If he did find Rickon then he is very close to returning or may have already returned. It is very much possible that as soon as Davos is back, Glover will lead the rest of white Harbour forces to join Stannis with Davos among them.And there is no way Manderly stays at WF with rest of Boltons people.He will ride in a litter mostly and will have a plan that wont require him to fight at all.

[Ser Oswell]

Also i like how cool and composed Stannis is before battle. Heres an excerpt

"Who is coming? Bolton?"

"Lord Ramsay," Theon hissed. "The son, not the father. You must not let him take him. Roose... Roose is safe within the walls of Winterfell with his fat new wife. Ramsay is coming."

"Ramsay Snow, you mean. The Bastard."

"Never call him that!" Spittle sprayed from Theon's lips. "Ramsay Bolton, not Ramsay Snow, never Snow, never, you have to remember his name, or he will hurt you."

"He is welcome to try. Whatever name he goes by."

[Lord Jon Connington]

Except it is Jeyne Poole not Arya and Ramsay knows that.

Is there confirmation in ADWD that that the Boltons know Arya is a fake? The Lannisters obviously know, Littlefinger knows (There was reference to him 'training' the girl) Theon knows as well but who else knows?

[aryagonnakill]

Is there confirmation in ADWD that that the Boltons know Arya is a fake? The Lannisters obviously know, Littlefinger knows (There was reference to him 'training' the girl) Theon knows as well but who else knows?

Yes they know, I can't point you to a page but that is why they wanted Theon to give her away, to create some kind of legitimacy because he knew her.

[Veltigar]

The letter is obviously fake, we are told so. The opening word is 'Bastard' and the letter purports to have come from Ramsay Snow/Bolton who kills men for using that word in his presence. Ergo the letter is fake. This is known.

But I agree that the news that Jon is 'dead' is likely to reach Bravos although, there are actually two links to the Iron bank. One is the banker sent to meet Stannis, the other is the master of coin sent out from Kings Landing.

Arya is only going to cross the sea to avenge Jon's death though. Which means that one or the other Bolton has to survive and Stannis has to die.

It would be an Obvious fake if the word Bastard was used to describe Ramsay. Ramsay has no problem with using that word as a slight against anyone he hates (e.g. Jon Snow). People make up such crazy theories about this letter, but it's pretty clear that Ramsay wrote it. They captured Mance (or a random spearwife, although I think the tale about Mance in his cage is true) and got the info they needed to write the letter out of him. The story about the battles is obviously made up. Stannis has used the Maester from the dreadfort to send the word that he has been killed by the Karstarks when they changed side during the battle against the Freys and Manderleys (oddly enough most casualties of that battle were Freys if you know what I mean). The Bastard of Bolton then wrote a letter to the wall, claiming the honor for the victory, and demanding his toys back.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

It would be an Obvious fake if the word Bastard was used to describe Ramsay. Ramsay has no problem with using that word as a slight against anyone he hates (e.g. Jon Snow). People make up such crazy theories about this letter, but it's pretty clear that Ramsay wrote it. They captured Mance (or a random spearwife, although I think the tale about Mance in his cage is true) and got the info they needed to write the letter out of him. The story about the battles is obviously made up. Stannis has used the Maester from the dreadfort to send the word that he has been killed by the Karstarks when they changed side during the battle against the Freys and Manderleys (oddly enough most casualties of that battle were Freys if you know what I mean). The Bastard of Bolton then wrote a letter to the wall, claiming the honor for the victory, and demanding his toys back.

See I think it's pretty obvious that Mance wrote the letter. when he is disguised as Rattleshirt, he refers to Jon as "bastard' like a dozen times. in the exact same way as the pink letter. Mance wrote the letter. Mance did not get caught and killed by Ramsay. This is not a Greek drama, where everything happens off-stage and we hear about it later. Mance is IMO one of the top 3 cleverest characters in the books. He did not get caught by that psycho.

[Veltigar]

See I think it's pretty obvious that Mance wrote the letter. when he is disguised as Rattleshirt, he refers to Jon as "bastard' like a dozen times. in the exact same way as the pink letter. Mance wrote the letter. Mance did not get caught and killed by Ramsay. This is not a Greek drama, where everything happens off-stage and we hear about it later. Mance is IMO one of the top 3 cleverest characters in the books. He did not get caught by that psycho.

Honestly, it’s all spelled out in theon’s sample chapter:

Stannis gestured at the black birds in the cages. "These two are not so clever, I presume." "No, Your Grace. Would that it were so." "Tell me, then. Where are these two trained to fly?"Maester Tybald did not answer. Theon Greyjoy kicked his feet feebly, and laughed under his breath. Caught!

"Answer me. If we were to loose these birds, would they return to the Dreadfort?" The king leaned forward. "Or might they fly for Winterfell instead?" Maester Tybald pissed his robes. Theon could not see the dark stain spreading from where he hung, but the smell of piss was sharp and strong.

…

I will ask you once again. What was in the message you sent to Winterfell? "The maester quivered. "A m-map, Your Grace. "The king leaned back in his chair. "Get him out of here," he commanded. "Leave the ravens." A vein was throbbing in his neck. "Confine this grey wretch to one of the huts until I decide what is to be done with him."

…

"It may be that we shall lose this battle," the king said grimly. "In Braavos you may hear that I am dead. It may even be true. You shall find my sellswords nonetheless. "The knight hesitated. "Your Grace, if you are dead — ""— you will avenge my death, and seat my daughter on the Iron Throne. Or die in the attempt."

______________________________________________________________________

He has two ravens that can fly to WF. He arrested the Karstarks and the Maester before any of them was able to send word to Roose that they were find out. So, he can claim that the Karstarks came in action and killed him.

He anticipates rumors of his demise (which means that he is planning something)

ð What does this tell us:

Stannis is preparing a ruse. He wants to take WF but, WF is a strong keep so the Boltons have a clear advantage. He will not be able to take WF through a siege and he doesn’t know that a lot of Northmen inside of WF would be more than happy to attack Roose from the inside. So, he needs a way in and what would be better than getting his troops in disguised as Victorious Karstark men. In order to achieve this he has to do two things:

1) Win the battle in the snow (which will be a lot easier than expected since Manderley wants to defect)

2) Inform Roose and Ramsay that of your “death”.

_______________________________________________________________

He did all that. Ramsay than used the information he extracted from Mance [who might be one of the cleverer characters, but that doesn’t make you immune from capture. In fact Mance has already been captured once and this time he’s in a castle where an experienced manhunter (Ramsay) would go after him.] to write the Pink Letter (in which he of course claimed to have defeated Stannis since he’s the sort of douche that takes credit for other men’s work

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Honestly, it’s all spelled out in theon’s sample chapter:

Stannis gestured at the black birds in the cages. "These two are not so clever, I presume." "No, Your Grace. Would that it were so." "Tell me, then. Where are these two trained to fly?"Maester Tybald did not answer. Theon Greyjoy kicked his feet feebly, and laughed under his breath. Caught!

"Answer me. If we were to loose these birds, would they return to the Dreadfort?" The king leaned forward. "Or might they fly for Winterfell instead?" Maester Tybald pissed his robes. Theon could not see the dark stain spreading from where he hung, but the smell of piss was sharp and strong.

…

I will ask you once again. What was in the message you sent to Winterfell? "The maester quivered. "A m-map, Your Grace. "The king leaned back in his chair. "Get him out of here," he commanded. "Leave the ravens." A vein was throbbing in his neck. "Confine this grey wretch to one of the huts until I decide what is to be done with him."

…

"It may be that we shall lose this battle," the king said grimly. "In Braavos you may hear that I am dead. It may even be true. You shall find my sellswords nonetheless. "The knight hesitated. "Your Grace, if you are dead — ""— you will avenge my death, and seat my daughter on the Iron Throne. Or die in the attempt."

______________________________________________________________________

He has two ravens that can fly to WF. He arrested the Karstarks and the Maester before any of them was able to send word to Roose that they were find out. So, he can claim that the Karstarks came in action and killed him.

He anticipates rumors of his demise (which means that he is planning something)

ð What does this tell us:

Stannis is preparing a ruse. He wants to take WF but, WF is a strong keep so the Boltons have a clear advantage. He will not be able to take WF through a siege and he doesn’t know that a lot of Northmen inside of WF would be more than happy to attack Roose from the inside. So, he needs a way in and what would be better than getting his troops in disguised as Victorious Karstark men. In order to achieve this he has to do two things:

1) Win the battle in the snow (which will be a lot easier than expected since Manderley wants to defect)

2) Inform Roose and Ramsay that of your “death”.

_______________________________________________________________

He did all that. Ramsay than used the information he extracted from Mance [who might be one of the cleverer characters, but that doesn’t make you immune from capture. In fact Mance has already been captured once and this time he’s in a castle where an experienced manhunter (Ramsay) would go after him.] to write the Pink Letter (in which he of course claimed to have defeated Stannis since he’s the sort of douche that takes credit for other men’s work

I hear ya. And you could be right. I'm still not convinced that Mance was captured though, when he was caught at the wall it was all part of his deal with Mel. He still has his ruby on too right? I just don't believe that with her help and with his brains he wasc aught and killed. I think the maester's ravens are just evidence that Stannis has Bolton informers in his camp. But at least now he knows about it, and will probably use it to lure the Boltons out onto that ice lake.

[Veltigar]

I hear ya. And you could be right. I'm still not convinced that Mance was captured though, when he was caught at the wall it was all part of his deal with Mel. He still has his ruby on too right? I just don't believe that with her help and with his brains he wasc aught and killed. I think the maester's ravens are just evidence that Stannis has Bolton informers in his camp. But at least now he knows about it, and will probably use it to lure the Boltons out onto that ice lake.

I don't think Mance is dead, he was just caught, tortured and thrown into a cage.

[aryagonnakill]

I hear ya. And you could be right. I'm still not convinced that Mance was captured though, when he was caught at the wall it was all part of his deal with Mel. He still has his ruby on too right? I just don't believe that with her help and with his brains he wasc aught and killed. I think the maester's ravens are just evidence that Stannis has Bolton informers in his camp. But at least now he knows about it, and will probably use it to lure the Boltons out onto that ice lake.

I don't think Mance could have made a deal with Mel before he was captured at the wall. How could they have communicated? I'm pretty sure Mance got beat fair and square at the wall. Another interesting questions is, is Mance still wearing the ruby? Wouldn't he continue to look like rattleshirt rather than bael the singer?

[Snarka]

Hello,

Could anybody please give me the source of this information in the interview?

"But George R.R. Martin has said that the sixth book, The Winds of Winter, begins with two big battles that were held over from the end of Dance With Dragons: the battle between Stannis and Ramsay Snow, and the civil war in Meereen."

From here: http://io9.com/how-m...me-of-512639504

This is the first time we at the Russian forum have heard that Ramsay and Stannis are indeed going to have a battle, and an epic one it seems! : )) Maybe even for seven days indeed? :drool:

I always assumed somebody was eh well... too creative when wrote that Letter. But if Mr.Martin himself confirms this battle, it changes some of my headcanon! I'd like to have all information possible, where it originates from?

[Suzanna Stormborn]

I don't think Mance could have made a deal with Mel before he was captured at the wall. How could they have communicated? I'm pretty sure Mance got beat fair and square at the wall. Another interesting questions is, is Mance still wearing the ruby? Wouldn't he continue to look like rattleshirt rather than bael the singer?

No i didn't mean he made a deal with mel before hand, I meant after he was captured he made a deal with her, that rattleshirt would burn instead of him. And as far as we know he is still under her protection or whatever at WF. I just don't accept that Mance was caught by Ramsay. Besides the blaringly obvious fact that Ramsay hates the word bastard. If you look at the 2 Jon chapters before Mance leaves the Wall he refers to Jon as Bastard several times. literally in the exact same wording and fashion as he does in the letter. it is a hint from GRRM to us, for whoever could pick that up during the reading. There is no way it is just a coincidence. Plus when do we ever hear Ramsay talking that way? It's not his style at all.

[Rooseman]

Here's what I think happened...

The Grand Northern Conspiracy is true, it's pretty clear that multiple northern lords currently residing in Winterfell are conspiring against the Boltons. Their plan is to somehow play them and Stannis out against each other.

At some point, they joined up with Abel. How that contact came about, I do not know. But then again, I also don't know how Littlefinger might have approached the Queen of Thornes about killing Joffrey. It just happened somehow.

Now the fake letter from Stannis arrives, with the news of his death and their plan is fucked (or so they believe). They have to get help from somewhere else in order to destroy the Boltons. This is where Mance comes in and suggests faking this letter supposedly written by Ramsay. Knowing Jon, he could expect that he would never just give in to the demands, but instead rally up as many swords as he could and march on Winterfell instead.

What reasons are there, that I prefer this theory over the more obvious explanation, that Ramsay wrote the letter himself?

1.) Wishful thinking ;) I just don't want Mance to be caught by Ramsay, he's such a strong character and I'd hate to see him broken by his torture

2.) It's not really GRRM's style to tell us about important plot-changing turns like this offscreen. It is however his style to use this technique in order to mislead us (see: Davos' beheading)

3.) The way in which he uses the word "bastard." Now I know that Ramsay does use that word too, but the only instance I remember was, when he called his horse a "bastard." He never used it to refer to an actual bastard, and I do not think that he would do that, since it has to remind him of what he is. On the other hand, that style is very similar to the way Mance talks to Jon

4.) The letter doesn't bear the Bolton seal, it's just a smear of pink wax. This is the strongest hint in my opinion. "In reality" that wouldn't mean as much, but the fact that GRRM put that in must have some significance. Why else would he write that? Just to fuck with us? Nah...

Oh, and totally unrelated to that: I liked the fact that Bran warged into the Ravens in order to manipulate Stannis into sacrificing Theon at a weirwood tree. Our little boy is going down a dark road. :)

[Perpetual Bran]

Here's what I think happened...

The Grand Northern Conspiracy is true, it's pretty clear that multiple northern lords currently residing in Winterfell are conspiring against the Boltons. Their plan is to somehow play them and Stannis out against each other.

At some point, they joined up with Abel. How that contact came about, I do not know. But then again, I also don't know how Littlefinger might have approached the Queen of Thornes about killing Joffrey. It just happened somehow.

Now the fake letter from Stannis arrives, with the news of his death and their plan is fucked (or so they believe). They have to get help from somewhere else in order to destroy the Boltons. This is where Mance comes in and suggests faking this letter supposedly written by Ramsay. Knowing Jon, he could expect that he would never just give in to the demands, but instead rally up as many swords as he could and march on Winterfell instead.

What reasons are there, that I prefer this theory over the more obvious explanation, that Ramsay wrote the letter himself?

1.) Wishful thinking ;) I just don't want Mance to be caught by Ramsay, he's such a strong character and I'd hate to see him broken by his torture

2.) It's not really GRRM's style to tell us about important plot-changing turns like this offscreen. It is however his style to use this technique in order to mislead us (see: Davos' beheading)

3.) The way in which he uses the word "bastard." Now I know that Ramsay does use that word too, but the only instance I remember was, when he called his horse a "bastard." He never used it to refer to an actual bastard, and I do not think that he would do that, since it has to remind him of what he is. On the other hand, that style is very similar to the way Mance talks to Jon

4.) The letter doesn't bear the Bolton seal, it's just a smear of pink wax. This is the strongest hint in my opinion. "In reality" that wouldn't mean as much, but the fact that GRRM put that in must have some significance. Why else would he write that? Just to fuck with us? Nah...

Oh, and totally unrelated to that: I liked the fact that Bran warged into the Ravens in order to manipulate Stannis into sacrificing Theon at a weirwood tree. Our little boy is going down a dark road. :)

Not that i wouldn't like this to be the case, but i have a remark on this theory:

The letter's use of Bastard feels strongly like Ramsay wrote it himself. Especially when he calls himself Trueborn. It's like he's trying to rub it in Jon's face, knowing all too well the humiliation that might provoque in a bastard's mind. Ramsay likes to humiliate people, and likes acting supprior, so i think that was very in character for him. I don't actually disagree that Mance might have wrote it, but i just think that part of GRRM's brilliance is that the letter doesn't give away its falsehood that easily.

I do agree with your othe pointers, especially about Mance concentrating on Jon's bastardy and knowledge of how that subject might be touchy for him.

I would also like to add that Roose Bolton would in no way in hell let his son write a provocative letter to someone who potentially commands the nights watch and the wildlings. Granted that they shouldn't know that Jon openened the wall for wildlings for sure, but Mance's presence is clearly an indicator that Jon has a better relationship with them than his predecessor lord commanders of the night's watch.

[mushroomshirt]

The letter's use of Bastard feels strongly like Ramsay wrote it himself.

I think you are right which is why I think Veltigar nailed it in this post.

It really makes the most sense, IMO.

[Rooseman]

I think you are right which is why I think Veltigar nailed it in this post.

It really makes the most sense, IMO.

But he's talking about the fact that Stannis faked his death letter, which I'm not debating.