More Middle East Fun

[lumer]

You forgot Likud...

(Intentiinally? :cool4: )

[Datepalm]

Come on, this is harder than the name-all-the-states game. I didn't even get into the funny parties.

And states don't move around.

I can, btw, name all the states.

Galactus: You're Swedish. How low is that bar set?

[Lummel]

...Avoda - Labour Party. After wandering off into a kind of political senility over the past few years, has somewhat resurged following the social protests of summer 2011 (bite us, Occupy Wall Street. We were there first.) and general atmosphere. Holds about 13 seats after Barak split off, expected to do somewhat better now. Headed by Shelly Yehimovitsch, a former journalist, modern woman, social democrat, etc. Head of labour. Was once slammed for 'provocative, deliberately sexual photograph'. This photograph...

Is Israel really that prudish? Or is your public life overwhelmed by people with a secret and deeply shameful jogging fetish?

[Datepalm]

Is Israel really that prudish? Or is your public life overwhelmed by people with a secret and deeply shameful jogging fetish?

Very possibly. I was sure this was some religeous thing, but I actually looked it up and apparently it was a pretty respectable secular columnist who, yes, must have a deeply shameful jogging fetish - and a front page column to air it. (The response was mostly "Dude, wtf?" but it's the only weird thing I could come up with about Yehimovitch. She just hasn't been in politics long enough...)

[Sci-2]

Chicken so good, it could bring peace to the Middle East

Ottolenghi and Tamimi grew up around the same time on separate sides of the city, Ottolenghi on the Jewish west side, and Tamimi in Muslim east Jerusalem. Decades later, and thousands of miles away, they met in a London deli where Tamimi ran the kitchen, and Ottolenghi eventually won a job as a pastry chef. When Ottolenghi decided to start his own line of eateries about ten years ago, he asked Tamimi to join his team.

“We see eye to eye on many things,” Ottolenghi said. “We are quite similar in many ways, in the way we perceive food and what we enjoy and what we like, and this developed over the years.”

[Datepalm]

What is it with food and the conflict anyway? You get one of these 'lets all get along with Hummus' things every other tuesday. No one ever goes on and on about how the Chinese and the Tibetans could work things out over comparative dumplings or the Sri Lankans find peace through the perfect curry.

[Galactus]

What is it with food and the conflict anyway? You get one of these 'lets all get along with Hummus' things every other tuesday. No one ever goes on and on about how the Chinese and the Tibetans could work things out over comparative dumplings or the Sri Lankans find peace through the perfect curry.

We do occasionally get "settle things over a cup of coffee" metaphors. (and occasionally a party leader will invite the other party leaders to dinner in their approporiately non-ostentatious home) but then again, our conflicts mostly are on the level where that might actually make sense.

Although I think i've heard the metaphors in some kind of asian context (china? Japan? The taiwan issue?) using "something or other diplomacy" to refer to leaders getting together and unofficially discussing things too sensitive to discuss openly.

[KAH]

Despite temptation to actually go and draw a map, i'll stick to text.

Very helpful!

Although, if you do eventually draw a map, please let it be of the variety of "Here be Dragons" and a guy in the upper left corner blowing wind.

[Datepalm]

Cupcakes for everyone! With falafel, if you must.

Moshe Kachlon, mysteriously resigning minister or mysteriousness, is seriously considering starting a social party.

Not above dirty political tricks after all! Called "a fifth columnist" by Netanyahu. (he probably deserves it, actually, but that just makes it all the more awesome. He PERSONALLY PRESIDED OVER THE LIKUD CONFERENCE and was the one to call the unification with YB vote. Like two days ago. AWESOME.) Is there a greater compliment than this? Oh, to be personally called a fifth columnist by Bibi...we can all only aspire to such. Well done, Mr. MK Kachlon.

Anyway, he'll possibly be joining with Amsalem, a Shas dropout from the social wing of that party (and liberal by Haredi standards) to attempt to find that magic unicorn of 21st century political beasts - a social(ist) party with a low-working class voter base and probably fairly conservative (or just vague) stances on security and religeon. I probably won't vote for them, but will be watching closely. (assuming it happens) No way to know which way such a hypothetical party might break, but presumably Kachlon has burned his bridges with Bibi (well, until the next election anyway) and I imagine Labour will find them perfectly acceptable. Some poll has such party (possibly with Livni) hitting 20 mandates. (!!!)

Did I say these were going to be boring elections? I think i've been spoiled by following the american ones with that whole binary thing and neat maths. Trisk, Cyrano and all the rest of you obssessive poll followers...you have no idea. This, folks, is quality entertainment.

ETA: Haaretz reports a great conspiracy theory: this is all being done under Netanyahu's auspices. Kachlon publicly breaks up with Likud over economic politicy, founds a new party with a social agenda, drags votes away from Labour and Shas, and immediately joins Likud-led coalition. Even if true - depressing and yet...kinda awesome (not sure how legal either, but go prove it, I guess) and even then...these things never end up working that way.

[Lyanna Stark]

Wow, your politicians and their maneuvering are exciting. I think the Israeli elections could possibly get more interested viewers here than our own. Our politicians were recently deemed by comedians to be much too boring for political satire, in comparison.

However, I am rather disappointed by the absence of maps. Everything gets better with maps.

[Usotsuki]

However, I am rather disappointed by the absence of maps. Everything gets better with maps.

Apple disagrees :P

I do like the conspiracy theory but it does seem to be a bank shot gambit and with very few exceptions, such as Harry Reid's selection of his opponent in his last Senate race, they tend to end in at best a humiliating defeat and at worst significant jail time.

[Lummel]

...However, I am rather disappointed by the absence of maps. Everything gets better with maps.

I hope you mean a map showing Kachlon's political odyssey with optional conspiracy theory shortcut marked by a dotted line. The precise degree of affiliation between political parties should also be measurable with a protractor on this map :)

[Datepalm]

Either way, it's just such a totally epic political move. The thing is, two weeks ago, I couldn't have picked Kachlon out of a lineup, and I wouldn't say i'm a 'low information voter'. (I'll read the fake leaflet in any language you want!) I knew vaguely who he was and didn't really have an opinion either way, except about the phone reform thing which is nice but band-aid economics.

Now...it's been two weeks of the Kachlon show 24/7. He was voted Most Honest Politician on one tv show. Darlinged on both right and left, his Mizrachiness cuddled and stroked, his man of the people narrative and working class background expounded upon, and even more - the Likuds social traditions suddenly dragged out of their attic and crocodile tears shed over them, it's whiteness suddenly pointificated upon in a myriad acidly worded columns, etc, etc.

And then Kachlon acts all mysterious and at the same time embraces the Likud. Signs up to run it's campaign, runs the conference. Gets up on stage with Bibi, where Bibi (really!) embraces his and exults: "You were born in the Likud! You'll always be Likud!"

Two days later: goodbye Likud.

The conspiracy theory writes itself.

Having gotten over my cackling glee at the sheer ballsiness of the whole thing either way, this is still a bunch (along with Amsalem and whatever other self declared right-wing-socialist pop out of the woodwork now) with pretty reactionary positions, part of who's appeal is exactly the ability to give the illusion of separating economics and interior policy from the occupation. Like I said, i'm not going to be voting for them. OTOH, a few weeks ago (see my posts) we were looking at a totally stagnant, frozen political landscape with an election with a foregone result, which was going to be same-only-moreso. Now things are...getting interesting. Let's see that labour list already!

[Red Sun]

Thank you, Datepalm, for the very interesting insights in the Israeli political landscape.

[The Night's Watch Man]

Don't try to change the subject we're still waiting for that map!

[The Iceman of the North]

Yeah, where are the poll maps?

[Samalander]

Closest thing to poll map I could find.

For the Hebrew-impaired members of the board, helpful illustrations of key political figures also present:

http://images.globes...bhirot1-550.jpg

ETA: Liberbibi is so big, it has spread right off the chart!

[Datepalm]

Sam! There you are.

I tried to make a map, but it gets too complicated. The trick isn't the distribution of the votes (the elections themselves always end up throwing some surprises up and polls have too many variables at this point to mean anything) but the coalitionary maths, and I haven't figured out a way to graph that. The news sites will get up clicky "build your own coalition" toys soon, but I haven't seen any yet.

It's like the way the american's have to add up to 271 electoral votes. We have to add up to 61 Knesset Members, but imagine that some states simply didn't like each other very much and would not be in the same block, even if they were voted that way. Like Texas and North Dakota might both be red, but North Dakota insulted Texas' Hat that one time and Obama promised to get them some nice new gun deregulations so they're totally going to vote Obama instead. Take that, North Dakota!

But that's no reason not to try. Lessee...

Lets say Kachlon runs with Amsalem but without Livni/Olmert. They get 15, Labour gets 15, Lapid gets 10. Liberbibi gets 32, the arabs get 11, the settler psychos get 7. Meretz 4, Shas 11, Torah 5, Kadima is wiped out and Sharon rolls over in his coma.

Now lets try and get a block: Liberbibi+Settlers+Shas+Torah=55. Buy Lapid with some cologne from Duty Free and we've got a 65 right wing coalition. WTF is Lapid for suddenly becomes an interesting question. He's really fond of settlers, apparently, but is Tommy Lapid his daddy? Is he going to cooperate with the Haredim? Yes, of course he is. But what if he's offered something else?

Theres no way the left builds up to a coalition under this scenarion (Lapid or Kachlon are never going to be in a coalition with Meretz, and the arabs are never going to be in a coalition with anyone.)

But thats just one scenario. Let's say Livni joins Kachlon and they get 25. Liberbibi 25, Labour 15, Lapid 6, Shas 10, Torah 5, Arabs 11, Meretz 4, psychos 7...

this isn't adding up. I want a clicky thingy already. And I don't see Livni joining Kachlon anyway.

See, this is why this stuff is pretty much unmappable right now.

ETA - New survey shows Kachlon with 10, having gotten them mostly from Labour (!?) and the settlers (!?) and Liberbibi with 43 (or 44 without Kachlon, which is more optimistic than anything else so far.) That sounds far fetched to me.

[Galactus]

Why "Liberbibi"? it sounds like some kind of teletubby. Or possibly a pokemon.

[The Pita]

At the end of the day, these things are so ridiculously unpredictable, and there are so many wild cards...

I mean, last election, Kadima won, and then lost after it won. Then you have Kachlon, Tzippi Livni, and Ehud Olmert, all of which have publicly stated they have no intention of going back into politics, meaning they're all going to start their own parties.

We have about three politicians who aren't under investigation for corruption of some sort, and the fact that Bibi is one of them is one of the funniest depressing facts ever, because if HE isn't corrupt then who is. We have parties coming out of the woodwork. Bieberman (I wonder if they knew about those puns when they decided to merge) have the right idea in merging, since they have the same opinions. Kadima and Lapid also agree with them, as well as all three of the wild cards. It's just a ridiculous power play to see who's going to be drawing ridiculous diagrams for the UN in 2014. And it's all pointless posturing. Netanyahu is going to be PM. The only purpose of the election is to see how much power the religious bloc is going to have, and whether the Minister of Defence is Moshe Ya'alon or Shaul Mofaz, or if there's going to be an upset and Ehud Barak manages to keep the job. Lieberman will have some role in the government but his actual job will be done by Bibi. My only hope right now is that they keep the Minister of Education (Gid'on Sa'ar). We haven't had one this competent ever. Or one that was anywhere near competent. Or one that wasn't a miserable failure.

I should add, for Datepalm's thingy, that recent polls have shown Bieberman with 45. I don't know how much of that Kachlon will take. I don't see Meretz getting 4, as they've been getting downsized quite a bit in the past few years. Same with Labour, especially since a lot of their voters will be stolen by Kachlon. He has much better PR than Shelly Yehimovitch, and has her basic opinions except the right likes him. Lapid will probably get more than 6, and Shas might get more than 10. I also don't see Kadima being wiped out entirely, for some reason. I don't know why Mofaz still has any credibility, but he still appears to have people voting for him.

The reason Mofaz doesn't have any credibility is because after spending the first month after the primaries calling Bibi a liar, he joined the coalition and denied doing that, and then changed his mind again.

EDIT- Just read up on some of Israel Beitenu's politicians... We elected those fucks? Anastasya Michaeli? Stas Misezhnikov? I can understand voting for Shas, even if I think they happen to be the devil's incarnation on this earth. But you are literally voting for idiots. Not just idiots, but visibly incompetent idiots. At least one could excuse America for liking Sarah Palin for a month.