Noroldis Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Anyway, I disagree with the bit about the best military technology. America, hands down, has the best military technology. Israel's advantage is one of pure experience. The average Israeli combatant will have much more field experience than his counterpart in almost any army, and that is irreplaceable.That said, if Israel tries to attack Iran on its own, and doesn't get help at any stage, it will lose. There is no substitute for sheer firepower and size. Israel proved that in Cast Lead. Unless there is a US task force ready to join forces with Israel, any Israeli attack on Iran is doomed to failure.Also - even if Israel wanted to launch an attack on Iran, how could it do so? The two countries do not share a border, so obviously Israel can't send in a massive ground force (unless the countries between Israel and Iran accept letting Israeli ground forces pass, which I can't see happening and would ruin any chance surprising the Iranians anyway). The same applies for an air attack. Even if the Israelis succeeded at sneaking in an air strike, the countries whose skies it violated would then have reason to declare war upon Israel, or at least become politically very hostile toward it. I suppose the Israelis could send missiles with conventional warheads, but that won't be nearly enough to bring down Iran. And if the Israelis use their nukes as part of a preemptive strike, they'll earn near-worldwide condemnation. So it's no wonder the Israelis are pushing so hard for the rest of the world, and especially the US, to see Iran as a dangerous threat that must be dealt with ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paladin of Ice Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Another round of back and forth at the Syrian-Turkey border today: Syrian mortar falls on Turkish soil, Turks respond return fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saci Targaryen Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Another round of back and forth at the Syrian-Turkey border today: Syrian mortar falls on Turkish soil, Turks respond return fire.Obviously someone is pushing towards war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronson Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Obviously someone is pushing towards war.This could end up engulfing the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 This could end up engulfing the whole region.Still very unlikely that there will be war, never mind such escalation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Big (for Jordan) rally for electoral reform as King Abdullah dissolves parliament ahead of elections later this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Interesting development: Syria has agreed to keep its forces six miles (10km) from the Turkish border in the wake of this week's deadly shelling incident, Turkish media have reported.Such a move would amount to a buffer zone, fulfilling a longstanding request by Syrian opposition groups that would allow rebels to operate freely and civilians to seek refuge.How this actually gets enforced will be quite interesting. It's one thing to announce a withdrawal but the temptation to keep paramilitary loyalist forces operating to mount incursions into zones will be hard to resist. Does Turkey want to become guarantor of this zone? If so it's going to be really difficult to avoid getting sucked deeper into this mess, and into further conflict with the regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord O' Bones Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Army folk or people otherwise in the know: What is the likely range of Syrian artillery? I know the US Navy's is far more than six miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crown Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 A father of a friend of mine had the following theory:Syrian rebels are 'attacking' the Turkish border, making it look like Assad-people did it. Hoping that the Turkish would help them to overthrow Assad. I thought this could very well be true, it's plausible at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord O' Bones Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Extremely plausible assuming the rebels have artillery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 You'd think the Syrians would be loudly screaming this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord O' Bones Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Which is why I do not assume the rebels have artillery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Syria has longer-range stuff, being a Soviet client tends to be good for that. But the shelling appears to have been mortars, so it isn't as if big guns are the issue here. Consequently it's at least plausible (or plausibly deniable) that it was rebels, or shabiha pretending to be rebels or rebels pretending to be shabiha. Civil wars, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sturn Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Army folk or people otherwise in the know: What is the likely range of Syrian artillery? I know the US Navy's is far more than six miles.It of course varies on the type (mortars? rockets? cannons?), but even a WW2-era light howitzer (105mm) can easily overcome this range (7 miles). WW2-era heavy howitzers (155mm), over 9 miles. If Turkey has more modern stuff, they could reach out to nearly 20 miles still only using conventional artillery. MLRS rocket systems can reach nearly 200 miles.So yes, the 6 mile range doesn't mean much versus artillery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Tachyon Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Army folk or people otherwise in the know: What is the likely range of Syrian artillery? I know the US Navy's is far more than six miles.If they used heavy artillery like this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S3_Akatsiyatheir range is larger than six miles. However, the BBC mentions a mortar, not a howitzer, so it was probably something more like like this:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortar_(weapon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sturn Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Also - even if Israel wanted to launch an attack on Iran, how could it do so? The two countries do not share a border, so obviously Israel can't send in a massive ground force (unless the countries between Israel and Iran accept letting Israeli ground forces pass, which I can't see happening and would ruin any chance surprising the Iranians anyway). The same applies for an air attack. Even if the Israelis succeeded at sneaking in an air strike, the countries whose skies it violated would then have reason to declare war upon Israel, or at least become politically very hostile toward it.Airstrikes via Southern Israel > Gulf of Agaba > Red Sea > Arabian Sea > Iran. Rough guesstimate looking at a map, that is about 5,000 km? The US bombed Libya from the UK in 1986(France/Italy/Spain refused air space if you recall) by using air refueling over a route of about 10,000 km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snake Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 Reports are that this is mortars being fired from the Syrian side so yes it's possible that it's the rebels trying to draw Turkey into the fray. Also, it seems the rebels are having trouble getting defectors so they've taken to drugging, cajoling and more to get more defectors.Also, rebels threaten to execute Iranian hostages if the Syrian army doesn't listen to their demands. Story.In other news, Israel shot down an unidentified drone. I wonder whose it was? Any ideas?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saci Targaryen Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 Reports are that this is mortars being fired from the Syrian side so yes it's possible that it's the rebels trying to draw Turkey into the fray. Also, it seems the rebels are having trouble getting defectors so they've taken to drugging, cajoling and more to get more defectors.Also, rebels threaten to execute Iranian hostages if the Syrian army doesn't listen to their demands. Story.In other news, Israel shot down an unidentified drone. I wonder whose it was? Any ideas??YEA, and some people still believe we are not getting dragged into a huge messy war on the Middle East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronson Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 YEA, and some people still believe we are not getting dragged into a huge messy war on the Middle East.The situation is likely going to get a whole lot worse when Assad finally falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snake Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 The situation is likely going to get a whole lot worse when Assad finally falls.For certain. A lot of revenge killings, torture, rape, you name it. Iraq all over again. Possibly even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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