More Middle East Fun

[Horza]

I doubt it.

The only data point that suggests that in the article you linked is:

In Israel, the Netanyahu government, minus some skeptics, believes that the red line will likely be crossed by Iran sometime next summer, possibly sooner. And that may be one reason Israel has moved its parliamentary elections forward, to February to firm up its mandate.

Which is misleading as it implies moving elections forward was a governmental, administrative decision, not a Bibi, striking while the Opposition is in disarray decision.

Whoever the US President is in Spring, I can't see them being any more willing to sign off another Middle East war in exchange for an indefinite delay in the Iranian nuclear program. For all the Romney camp's talk about toughness and credibility they need to be seen to be fixing the US Economy right off the bat, and that won't go well with sky-high oil prices.

[snake]

I doubt it.

The only data point that suggests that in the article you linked is:

Which is misleading as it implies moving elections forward was a governmental, administrative decision, not a Bibi, striking while the Opposition is in disarray decision.

Whoever the US President is in Spring, I can't see them being any more willing to sign off another Middle East war in exchange for an indefinite delay in the Iranian nuclear program. For all the Romney camp's talk about toughness and credibility they need to be seen to be fixing the US Economy right off the bat, and that won't go well with sky-high oil prices.

You may doubt it but it's starting to look more and more inevitable. Unless Iran capitulates. Might not be a invasion or full scale war but I think something's gonna happen.

[Horza]

You may doubt it but it's starting to look more and more inevitable. Unless Iran capitulates. Might not be a invasion or full scale war but I think something's gonna happen.

For it to be inevitable it has to be established that such a strike is in US interests, and I don't think even the Romney foreign policy brains trust really thinks that. There's always unforseeable events, I guess, but the unforseeable is by definition only inevitable in hindsight.

[Datepalm]

Why elections, why? I think i'm going to hibernate.

[Horza]

That seems to be the Israeli public's attitude in a nutshell. Why, when the jerks aren't taking a break?

[Datepalm]

Personally, I had plans. Finish a degree, go on a diet, write the Great Israeli Space Opera Novel, things like that.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

DP,

Do it. We'd all love to read the Great Israeli Space Opera Novel.

[Datepalm]

It'll probably feature elections.

[Horza]

Personally, I had plans. Finish a degree, go on a diet, write the Great Israeli Space Opera Novel, things like that.

That's all well and stychic, but I foresee a severe impact on future mockery of retrograde American political happenings if the expected result eventuates and as an honorary board eurocommie this can only be of great concern.

[Datepalm]

What expected result? Current polling shows marginal shift right, putting our government somewhere in mid US-democrat territory.

[Lightning Lord]

What expected result? Current polling shows marginal shift right, putting our government somewhere in mid US-democrat territory.

Fascist.

[Datepalm]

Shas? Really, Shas?! You're going to be the most interesting part of this election?

Going to sleep.

(I'm...occupying the thread to complain about random things about the elections that bug me now. It's no more fatuous than the rest of the armchair generalling)

[Galactus]

Why elections, why? I think i'm going to hibernate.

You can't hibernate. You're only allowed to hibernate if there's actual snow.

EDIT: Oh, this nugget might be fun: One of the hosts of the swedish eurovision song contest (I think, at least for the swedish version, not sure if she'll host the entire thing) is the daughter of a palestinian refugee.

[Datepalm]

Now, snow would do a lot for this election. But it snowed last year, it probably won't again.

Can a volcano fling some stuff into the stratosphere someplace? Someplace uninhabited, obviously.

[Datepalm]

Yes! Yisrael Beiteinu - Likud merger!

Do I like this? No, of course not. Do I think it will strengthen the left? Only superfically, becuase while I do think theres reason to assume this will drive voters away from both parties, I also assume they know something I don't and so I hunker down in paranoia. Thats my natural condition anyway, so whatever. My best guess is that this a party leaders stunt that will cement both at the heads of their parties and shed YB's remaining russian-moderate vote (who are into things like secularism and jobs) and Likud's (even more) nutty religeous-settle not-so-fringe (who are into things like god, guns and organic Judea and Samaria Marijuana) in favour of a party that is solid right both economically and politically. I expect them to start talking about family values, rugged individualism and binders full of women any day now. (Lieberman "Big parties are better, and while I don't think we'll have two big one like in America soon..." Me: "Or one big one like we should..." No one appreciates my sense of humor.)

Yay, i'm no longer totally bored. Expect this to blow over soon.

[The Pita]

Is there really such a merger? Damn it, I was planning on voting for Beiteinu...

Guess I'm back to the Lapid camp. Fuck. I don't trust that rat fink any more than I trust Bibi.

...

I despise Israeli politics so much right now.

In other news, did you hear about the boom in Sudan? Israel's going cray-zay!

[Datepalm]

I would, honest to god, vote for the Liberbibi before I vote Lapid. He makes my skin crawl. He's also announced that he doesn't like IsraRomney, but that he wouldn't mind joining their coalition. I fact, if it comes to pass that Ra'am-Ta'al becomes the largest party and get together with Shas to implement fundamentalist Sharia Law, he would also 'not rule out' joining that coalition.

I did, and I don't entirely buy it, but maybe, who knows. It'll be fourty years (at least) before we know for sure one way or another for sure, so speculating seems kinda pointless.

[KAH]

I think perhaps it may have been done before here on the board, but if not -

I very much would like a key, a map, a Who's Who and What's What In the Bewildering Jungle of Israeli Politics.

BUT, only if it's done by Datepalm.

Illumination and wisdom rings hollow in a hall bereft of gut-aching laughter. (too much pressure?)

[Datepalm]

Despite temptation to actually go and draw a map, i'll stick to text.

A to Z of Israeli Politics for Elections to the 19th Knesset, roughly from right to left:

Mafdal: Ok, they're not called Mafdal anymore, they're a constantly shifting cluster of tiny parties all of whom are whats called broadly religeous zionist, or, to be more precise, their reason for existing is cheer on settlements and pray a lot. They were Mafdal when I got to know them, in the good old days of the 2003 election campaign at Shilat Junction when I nearly get beaten up by their psycho activists, (not that I mind. I would have loved to hit back, it just seemed bad form to be the one to start it) so thats what they are as far as i'm concerned. I assume theres some doctrinal differences that they're squabbling over ("Does the goat go on top of the caravan synagogue or next to it? What if it's a goat we stole from Palestinians? Women: baby machines first, human shields second - or vice versa), but I don't give a fuck. They can all go jump off a bridge.

They have 7 mandates at present (as two parties, National Union and Jewish Home) and are polling at six-nine. Despite the shift right, they haven't really picked up that many votes, because they've got a pretty specific demographic profile (psychos.) If you're just plain old right, you vote Likud or Liberman. These guys are...well, messianic. They picked up 70% of the vote in Kiryat 4, but 12% in Ma'ale Adumim. If these guys have an economic policy, nobody knows what it is.

Aside: The Shift Right - Personally, I don't think it's actually happened. Seriously. Positions that BIBI holds today, at least on paper, were far left 15 years ago. And Kadima, which is center-right, if we're being honest, and full of ex-Likudniks, holds them genuinely. What we've got is people shifting to the left objectively, but annoyed at the Palestinians at the same time (this is because, as a polity, Palestinians are fucking, to put it mildly, annoying) so they're banking on these non-wishy-washy-dovey-peacy-hippie parties to get thing done sensibly. Only, they voted for cunts. So it goes.

Yisrael Beiteinu - weird (or maybe not) evolution from sort of sensible-stuff-and-common-sense party that mainly pandered to secularism and economy (this combination is code for "anti Haredi", with a light side dish of anti arab, but mostly anti haredi.) with a Russian ethnic slant.

My personal feeling is that it grew last elections not so much becuase of people attracted to Liebermans Soviet Appartchnik charm, as becuase he was the tough guy making tough sounds against the Haredim. They took Shinui's old voters, and a few old school, non-religeous fascists who thought Likud had gone soft. Now part of the Liberbibi. Have 15, were polling at 15, but I anecdotally don't think it's precisely the same people. (at a guess, they're losing actual russians disappointed with total lack of any attention on stuff russians care about, plus new pious threads running through, and picking up the first time 18 year old boy voters who think their stunts at the foreign ministry are funny.)

Haredi (Ultra Orthodox) Parties (detour):

United Torah Judaism: I have no idea what these guys are about. They represent the Ashkenazi Haredim in a vaguely feudal way. I really have no clue. I should probably find out. They've got 5 seats, they're polling at 6.

Shas: Ie, the interesting UO party, representing the Sephardic Haredim. Issue is, a lot of non-classic-haredim vote for them as well. It's a very social party and operated roughly like a terror organization without the violence (it always amuses me when westerners are impressed that Hamas/Hizballah/Taliban/etc run schools! and soup kitchens! OMG! Thats how it works, It's part of the gig of being a religeous extremist.They run schools like they wear funny hats. And so does Shas.) A lot of lower working class, traditional-religeous, especially Mizrachim vote for them. Its against their interests, but hey. (yes, I did also look for an opportunity to go fisticuffs with the Shas guys who were running the super cheap, gender segregated summer camps in the impoverished ethiopian neighbourhood that summer I spent in Petach Tikva. Kill me if I ever set foot in Petach Tikva again, btw.)

Aryeh Deri, Shas' own Silvio Berlusconi (ok, not quite) is back this year after being barred from politics for 8 years or something after being imprisoned for corruption. He's got a lot of influence - he's in a sort of weird head-of-party triumverate arrangement. He was considering starting a new party which was picking up 5+ votes at the polls so he's popular publicly. He's considered relatively dovish, and geuinely social rather than conveniently-social-for-my-guys, but i'd say it's a bit early to count Shas in the leftwing camp, to put it mildly.

Likud (ie, one half of Liberbibi): Ruling party, center right, etc. The thing is, it's kind of broad. It's got your hard core market capitalists/political opportunists like Bibi on one end, and then a populist Mizrachi tradition, and then a hard religeous/fascist right like Feigelin, who ran for Chair against Bibi and picked up a quarter of the votes. This joining Liberman business is going to seriously alienate some of them. (maybe both the non-bibi ends.) I guess they're banking on party loyalty, becuase Likud has some serious historical brand behind it and lack of alternatives for their voters. One poll showed Frankenparty doing considerably worse than they were seperately though.

The most interesting thing that happened was that their most popular minister, Moshe Kachlon, quit a few weeks back. He's from that populist/social wing of the party and put through some genuinely effective popular reforms that actually put countable money in peoples pockets. He's much beloved, considered honest, (and not Ashkenazi, like a lot of the voters). Did he quit becuase he got wind of the Liberbibi thing? Inquiring minds. He professes to retain Likud loyalty, but of course it would be totally awesome if he joined labout tommorow. Probably not going to happen, becuase that seems like the sort of political dirty stunt that he's genuinely above. They never last.

Yesh Atid (There is a Future)/Lapid Fetish Party: Former news anchorman and general charming peronality dude. Started a party. Possibly because he watched The Newsroom. Sorkin, would, in fact, adore him. His tough but caring, left but right, smart but not...omg, an intellectual. He tells truth to power and patronizes everyone else. I think he's pond scum. He's also the son of politician Tomi Lapid, so theres an added frisson of nepotism. At first, I think, he was running on a kind of center-center-center un-platform, but increasingly seems to be shifting right. Or, is being shifted right by the polls, anyway. The Liberbibi frankenparty thing seems to have given him a major boost, but there only been one poll so far and it's weird. His potential constituency, as far as I can tell, is bored suburban Gush Dan housewives. Polling at between 7 and 17. I want him to suffer an embarassing illness and leave the country forever. Is Sorkin making a new show?

Atzmaut (Independece) - Ehud who-gives-a-fuck Barak's party. - ex-labour chairman defence minister. Supposedly still record holder of standard army obstacle course fourty odd years on. Once had a prominent mole, which he had removed. This is seen as emblematic of move from dovish social democrat to snooty, vain right wing liberal. (also caught a lot of flack a few years ago for buying very expensive apartment, etc.) Split off from Labour (while he was chairman of it, IIRC(!)) with four others to found Independence party, which has never polled as recieving any seats. Actual rumors that he'll run in Likud, which is quite a political step.

Kadima - Who? They've been shedding people left and right (literally) like dandruff. Half their vaguely interesting MK's have already announced they'll run with someone else. (Nino Absadze for Labour yay!) If Livni (who lost the chairpersonship to the non-entity that is Mofaz and then bowed out of politics, leaving behind a vaguely martyrlike image) and/or Olmert come back, maybe theres a chance. They're both ex Likudniks who moved left, so theres a kind of cred with that. I prefer Livni to Olmert, becuase she has an honestly clean political image, and probably because I still resent him for his years as mayor of Jerusalem. Have 28 seats (more than Likud) will have about 5 at this rate, and possibly no one to fill them with.

Avoda - Labour Party. After wandering off into a kind of political senility over the past few years, has somewhat resurged following the social protests of summer 2011 (bite us, Occupy Wall Street. We were there first.) and general atmosphere. Holds about 13 seats after Barak split off, expected to do somewhat better now. Headed by Shelly Yehimovitsch, a former journalist, modern woman, social democrat, etc. Head of labour. Was once slammed for 'provocative, deliberately sexual photograph'. This photograph.

They've been picking up a bit of a basketcase of candidates from all over the left, social and political and Gilad Shalit's father (!? He's certainly emerged as an impressively measured personality after so long in the public eye, and I do like him, but politics? You deserve better than that, man.) It will be interesting to see how they shake out the final list. It could be all social all the time, or it could have a considerable diplomatic contingent. No idea how thats going to play.

Meretz - European style social democratic party. They put things like gay rights and envioroment front and center, and they've got some good people, but they don't really hold any positions that someone else doesn't as well (they're just noisier about them than labour) and have a probably deserved reputation for snooty elitism. I know someone who's running in their primaries who has strong organized labour ties, but he's really unlikely to make it into the Knesset. Have 3 seats and I doubt they'll get more than 4-5, if not still 3.

Arab Party Bloc:

Hadash/Communist Party - One foot jewish, including their most prominent MK, Dov Hanin, who got a third of the vote for Tel Aviv mayor a few years back. The far left of the jewish vote and the non-religeous arab vote. Mix of social and political left. I'm ok with their social stuff (and with Dov Hanin) but I think their political platform is wishy-washy orientalist one state nonsense. Too long to get into. Have 4 seats, will likely stay thereabouts.

Balad and Ra'am-Ta'al - personally I find them more or less indistinguishable. They're both very far left on political stuff, but often retreat into that useless identity politics language. I think Balad might be one-staters and R-T two staters+all it's citizens, but I honestly don't know. The arabic reading public might be able to tell the difference between them, but I can't. They've pretty much never worked with anyone on anything that i'm aware of. 6-7 seats between them. Hey, MK Ahmed Tibi is funny though. (no, really, he seems to have a great sense of humor.)

Hypothetical "Arab Zionist Party" - some rumors of this, but no polling that i've seen. Besides the fact "arab zionist party" is a terrible name sure to win them absolutely no votes, including their own mother, this might be an interesting concept. The idea being an arab party that focuses on social arab issues and/or the broadly accepted two-state solution rather than pretending it's a member of the Palestinian or ocassionally Syrian parliament and waxing rhapsodiously about The Opressed Narrative. That plays well on Al-Jazeera, but doesn't do much for housing shortages in Nazareth. I think this might have a certain appeal to middle and working class arabs, but then they might just get mad at what they see as a self interested party pandering to the jewish establishment. Arab turnout was just 54% in 2009 and some portion of that (small but not negligible. Much lower in the last elections than before though) goes to parties outside the arab bloc as well. We'll see. At the moment its just a rumor.

ETA - Doh, I forgot Likud. Probably becuase I secretly wanted to. Added them in in their appropriate place.

[Galactus]

Awww, your parties seem much more interesting than ours.