Padraig Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Agreed. The acceptance of the Easter European countries came too early, the Eu was not yet fit for them, and many people are realising that now, reducing the chances for other countries to join soon.Croatia is joining next year.Turkey has 74m people, around 7m below Germany. The EU 500m.Germany's influence isn't just based on population. Its economy is way bigger than Turkey's.And yes, its a bit late for large countries to worry about loss of power given the entry of all the Eastern European countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Järv Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Wiki tells me that the population of Turkey is 79,749,461population of Germany: 81,799,600fertility rate Turkey: 2.13fertility rate Germany: 1.41Thus, as I said, Turkey would soon be the most influential country as regards votes and members of parliament. And their economy is rapidly growing, in contrast to most EU countries.The Eastern European countries were all small, with the exception of Poland. So the change of power relations was smaller than it would be if a very large country like Turkey entered the Union.Just look at Ukraine: They also tried to get closer to the EU under the last president, but they were not welcomed warmly by most countries IIRC (except for Poland). One important reason for this was probably their size.Croatia is joining next year, yes. I predict that this will be the last new member for some time. It is almost impossible to come to decisions with 27 members, as we are experiencing currently. Every new member makes that process even more difficult.EDIT: An important factor correlated with size is the amount of subsidizes a country gets: Turkey, being poor and large at the same time, would suck up more or less all the available money, something that neither the poor countries, who wold get less money, nor the rich countries, who would have to pay more, would like very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K.C. Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Now -- this may very well see the return of the Ottoman empire.Take this as a warning Europe - this is what happens when you don't allow perfectly nice countries to join your Union.Interestingly, they've made waves lately by demanding artifacts back from various museums. There's a treaty stating that items removed from a country before 1970 don't have to be returned, but they're citing an old Ottoman law. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/01/arts/design/turkeys-efforts-to-repatriate-art-alarm-museums.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Lord Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Just look at Ukraine: They also tried to get closer to the EU under the last president, but they were not welcomed warmly by most countries IIRC (except for Poland). One important reason for this was probably their size.I think you're exaggerating the importance of size in this instance. For one thing, Ukraine's population is shrinking, and even at its current size, would be just fifth largest. Ukraine's admittance was halted more by poor infrastructure, weak economy, rampant political corruption at all levels and in all branches, lack of free speech, open-immigration, and civil rights concerns. The population may have played a role, but only as an element within the more deterministic factors.You might be spot-on with Turkey, I know less about their petition for admittance. Turkey definitely has a higher cultural hurdle to overcome than Eastern European countries. It may also relate to population, but given the overwhelmingly larger population of Western Europe bloc countries, I don't see it being a primary concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Hey guys, 2005 called: it wants its euroidentitatkrise back.The last year and a half has established beyond any doubt that Turkey now wields a lot more clout in its near-abroad than it could ever hope to in Europe, just as the last two years have removed many of the supposed pluses of membership.Their record of stable (touch wood), prosperous, democratic Islamic governance under the AK Party has given them a model to offer Tunisia, Egypt and others. At the same time, the Kurdish situation (among many other factors) provides ample grounds for seeking to mold the outcome of the Syrian crisis. Ottoman Empire II: Hill To Pay is an obvious exaggeration but leadership of a bloc of Islamic democracies unwilling to fall under Saudi or Iranian influence is definitely on the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Lord Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Can someone with more knowledge inform... how much power has been removed from the military within Turkey? From discussion with Turkish friends, I had come to understand that the military was constitutionally tasked with keeping a check on potential theocratic infringement on the secular government. But someone upthread mentioned military reforms in an attempt to conform to European standards? Is this accurate, has some of the bestowed power been revoked, and if so was it more conformity to Europe, or attempts at a more theocratic party trying to insulate itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K.C. Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Speaking anecdotaly, the impression in places like Afghanistan seems to be that Turkey is not some sort of regional leader that will set a shining example but that it's a military dictatorship where Islam has been suppressed. I would be very careful about falling into Iraq Syndrome with statements like Horza's. Like Lightning Lord though, I don't know enough to have an informed opinion about the facts on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Can someone with more knowledge inform... how much power has been removed from the military within Turkey? From discussion with Turkish friends, I had come to understand that the military was constitutionally tasked with keeping a check on potential theocratic infringement on the secular government. But someone upthread mentioned military reforms in an attempt to conform to European standards? Is this accurate, has some of the bestowed power been revoked, and if so was it more conformity to Europe, or attempts at a more theocratic party trying to insulate itself?It's possibly too soon to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Speaking anecdotaly, the impression in places like Afghanistan seems to be that Turkey is not some sort of regional leader that will set a shining example but that it's a military dictatorship where Islam has been suppressed. I would be very careful about falling into Iraq Syndrome with statements like Horza's. Like Lightning Lord though, I don't know enough to have an informed opinion about the facts on the ground.Weirdly, large swathes of the Turkish military think Turkey is an Islamic theocracy where secularism has been supressed...I don't see what Iraq Syndrome I was displaying upthread - nothing I wrote there was a proposal or a celebration of Turkish hegemony, just my take on what looks to be at stake for Turkey in the region as it stands, and I don't forsee adventurous use of military force by Turkey unless Iraqi Kurds lose their sway over their Syrian allies.ETA: ...though they are today tabling a motion to allow cross-border deployments for a period of one year. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K.C. Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Iraq Syndrome referred to past predictions that Iraq would help "spread democracy" in the Middle East. I don't disagree with your assessment, I just think politics in the region are wonky to say the least. They're still trying to work out how the words Islamic and democracy fit together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Iraq Syndrome referred to past predictions that Iraq would help "spread democracy" in the Middle East. I don't disagree with your assessment, I just think politics in the region are wonky to say the least. They're still trying to work out how the words Islamic and democracy fit together.They're incredibly wonky, but alongside the sectarian proxy conflict between Iran and Saudi in Syria (and Iraq, Lebanon and probably Bahrain thanks to the repression there) there's a big struggle for the hearts and minds of Sunnis of all persuasions and there are clear possiblities of alignment for moderate Islamist groups like Ennahda in Tunisia and possibly the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood with the brand of government repesented by Erdogan and the AK Party, in contrast to the Salafism being pushed by the Saudis and whatever jive Qatar is playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K.C. Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Are you some kind of actual expert, Horza? I say that in the most respectful way possible. I thought you were just a wise-cracking Aussie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Wisecracking Aussie I will cop to, but I posess no actual expertise of any kind.I've always been a news and politics junkie, and I will attribute some of my interest in this region to having to negotiate a playground featuring recent refugees from the Lebanese and Iran-Iraq Wars as a kid. But mostly I just like being Right on the Internet. This tendency is exacerbated when it comes to Middle East discussion as a lot of commentary tends not to give the people living there any credit for agency or agendas of their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Horza,I just heard a report on NPR that stated Syria said, with regard to the mortar strike across the border into Turkey, (paraphrased) "Shit happens you better not escalate.". The Turkish response is to authorize further incursions into Syria. Can the Assad regime fight a civil war and a war with Turkey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAH Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Can the Assad regime fight a civil war and a war with Turkey?If the Turks opt for regime change, Assad is doomed, simple as that.Whether they actually want to go the full nine yards is uncertain, though. The aftermath would bring a lot of headaches for Turkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seli Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Can someone with more knowledge inform... how much power has been removed from the military within Turkey? From discussion with Turkish friends, I had come to understand that the military was constitutionally tasked with keeping a check on potential theocratic infringement on the secular government. But someone upthread mentioned military reforms in an attempt to conform to European standards? Is this accurate, has some of the bestowed power been revoked, and if so was it more conformity to Europe, or attempts at a more theocratic party trying to insulate itself?I don't actually know if the lessened influence of the military is due to EU standards (although I hope we have standards) or internal politics. The latter option is just as, and perhaps even more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Lord Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 This thread is actually the first I'd heard of it being related to Europe at all. I knew Erdogan had taken measures to distance the military from any control of government, but not to what extent. Horza's link (what I had time to read) was informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 ETA: ...though they are today tabling a motion to allow cross-border deployments for a period of one year. Oh well.The Guardian is reporting that it just passed; parliament has authorized cross-border motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Horza,I just heard a report on NPR that stated Syria said, with regard to the mortar strike across the border into Turkey, (paraphrased) "Shit happens you better not escalate.". The Turkish response is to authorize further incursions into Syria. Can the Assad regime fight a civil war and a war with Turkey?The answer is no, Scott. But fortunately for them Turkey isn't invading over this.I don't know who wants a Turkish invasion of Syria less than the Assads but NATO and Turkey would be running close seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 What would a major incursion (not a full scale invasion) into Northern Syria by Turkish forces do to Assad's efforts to resist the rebels in Syria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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