R+L = J v 38

[MtnLion]

Though I don't believe Jon would leave the NW if the Others were still to be defeated.

Jon will leave the Night's Watch if he cannot defend the realms of men while a part of it. That is his calling, and everything he does. If he can better defend the realms of men as Lord of Winterfell, or King in the North, he will do it.

[Lady Green]

I hadn't concidered that Jon might see it as his duty to leave the NW, but then again that makes sense, especially with him wanting to march on Winterfell because he believed it was his duty.

[Lady KotLT]

A big deal has been made of weddings and how houses exchange their cloaks during the ceremony. It really would be interesting to find that Ned saved the cloaks in Lyanna's tomb. Honestly, I think it only matters what the reader deduces about Jon's parentage, I think the realm will turn to their savior.

I like the thought of finding the cloak in Lyanna's tomb maybe with a harp?

If it was Littlefinger that was responsible for telling about R+L then he really got into playing the game of thrones very early. Thats really interesting, he keep picturing him as a puppetmaster :bowdown:

[Techelles]

Ah, but the likelihood is that it is Littlefinger's animosity toward Brandon, and his desire for Catelyn that formulates the message about Lyanna and Rhaegar that reaches Brandon, and infuriates him.

I've heard this mentioned before, but I was never sure what supported the idea. Why would LF be involved at all? Why would he be the one delivering the news of Lyanna's kidnapping, and why would anyone take his word for it? Had he not just recently been defeated by Brandon in a duel and sent back to his hovel in the Fingers in disgrace?

[Lady KotLT]

Jon will leave the Night's Watch if he cannot defend the realms of men while a part of it. That is his calling, and everything he does. If he can better defend the realms of men as Lord of Winterfell, or King in the North, he will do it.

This really is Jon. His responsibility will be to the people and not care who is sitting on the throne. Afterall if they don't defeat The Others then there will be no people/kingdom left

[MtnLion]

I've heard this mentioned before, but I was never sure what supported the idea. Why would LF be involved at all? Why would he be the one delivering the news of Lyanna's kidnapping, and why would anyone take his word for it? Had he not just recently been defeated by Brandon in a duel and sent back to his hovel in the Fingers in disgrace?

The exact timing of the duel is in question. It could have been near the time of Harrenhal, and between Harrenhal and when Lyanna is "abducted" there is at least nine months of winter. Littlefinger was humiliated by Brandon during the duel, and laid up for long enough to begin plotting before he left Riverrun. That Lyanna and Rhaegar went off together was enough to get Littlefinger's creative juices going, and evolving into the Littlefinger we know today. So, if Littlefinger was the source of message to Brandon and possibly Robert, I'm sure it was full of all sorts of lurid but false details.

[Twinslayer]

This isn't exactly comparable. The Citadel is an entity that is sworn to serve the king and lords of Westeros, whereas the Night's Watch is a separate, independent, and neutral entity.

I don't recall Stannis ever saying such a thing. What he and Melisandre argue is that Jon's vows were never valid in the first place, because he swore them to "false" gods. Not that a king can absolve him of his vows.

To your first point, I agree that the Night's Watch is different from the Citadel (and from the kingsguard, which is the comparison made by Robb), because the Night's Watch is expected to/generally permitted to stand aloof from the squabbles of the realm. But I do think that ultimately the law against deserting the Night's Watch is the King's law, because when Ned executes the NW deserter at the beginning of AGOT, he does it in the name of King Robert and not in the name of the Night's Watch. [ETA -- nor does Ned send him back to the NW for punishment].

To your second point, I think it is clear that Stannis believes that Jon is bound by his vows to the Old Gods by operation of the King's law. I think it is implied that Stannis believes that, as King, he can relieve Jon of those vows.

To the best of my recollection, Stannis does not say anything one way or another about Jon's vows. However, Stannis does say that Mance Rayder -- a deserter from the Night's Watch -- is an oathbreaker. He also says that, by breaking his oath, Mance has broken the King's law. So unless Mance said his NW oath before R'hllor, then I think it is a safe bet that Stannis thinks that oaths taken before the Old Gods (or the Seven, if that is what Mance did) are valid.

Add this to Stannis' offer to make Jon Lord of Winterfell, and I infer that Stannis believes that a King can relieve a member of the Night's Watch of his vows.

Now, Melisandre does tell Jon that oaths sworn to "false gods" have no power. But I don't think Stannis ever says that.

[Techelles]

The exact timing of the duel is in question. It could have been near the time of Harrenhal, and between Harrenhal and when Lyanna is "abducted" there is at least nine months of winter. Littlefinger was humiliated by Brandon during the duel, and laid up for long enough to begin plotting before he left Riverrun. That Lyanna and Rhaegar went off together was enough to get Littlefinger's creative juices going, and evolving into the Littlefinger we know today. So, if Littlefinger was the source of message to Brandon and possibly Robert, I'm sure it was full of all sorts of lurid but false details.

The duel occurred just after Cat's betrothal was announced, which was, I think, after Harrenhal, and Brandon was on his way to Riverrun to marry Cat when he heard about Lyanna. Between Harrenhal and the rebellion was about a year, right? And the rebellion didn't start until Brandon was dead and Jon Arryn called his banners. So there's our window.

But I don't think the duel's location on this timeline would really affect whether or not LF had a role. His wound was not life-threatening, as I recall, and wouldn't have taken too long to heal. So he would have been back in the Fingers pretty quickly, which puts him outside of the action. How would word of the kidnapping reach him there? This is before he had any influence, any pull, any network of informants keeping him in the loop.

And if the message did reach him there, it would have also reached many other more important people first, people who would have sent the message on to Brandon. The same is true if he had still been in Riverrun when the news arrived: there were other people there who would have heard it and reacted to it first.

Finally, I think Brandon would have gone after Lyanna regardless of how the news of her kidnapping was painted. Even if Lyanna herself had been willing and Brandon knew it, Rhaegar, who was a married man, had still eloped with a betrothed woman, meaning her dishonor was guaranteed from the start. And the insult to house Stark would have still been palpable; Lyanna was very young, and no one in her family had given her leave to go off with Rhaegar. And Rhaegar himself had certainly not been given the okay by ol' Lord Rickard. So there was never any way that Rhaegar could be innocent in this situation; regardless of Lyanna's attitude, he would have been fully aware that her family and her betrothed would be affronted.

In light of all this, I can't imagine what new angle LF's involvement would bring to the affair. If it were to be revealed, there wouldn't really be any implications; nothing would be changed, because he really couldn't have made things that much worse. They were plenty bad enough to begin with.

And on top of everything, the books never drop the slightest hint that LF played any role beyond the duel -- at least not so far as I can tell. So this is why I just don't see a reason to entertain the notion.

[Twinslayer]

Edit -- double post, sorry.

[MtnLion]

But I don't think the duel's location on this timeline would really affect whether or not LF had a role. His wound was not life-threatening, as I recall, and wouldn't have taken too long to heal.

He was opened from navel to breast collarbone. He was incapacitated long enough to get involved with Lysa while delirious, and mistake her for Catelyn. The story that I recall was that Littlefinger was offered a chance to yield seven times, and on the seventh he had nearly been mortally wounded, the wound described.

So he would have been back in the Fingers pretty quickly, which puts him outside of the action. How would word of the kidnapping reach him there? This is before he had any influence, any pull, any network of informants keeping him in the loop.

I don't think that he needs a network of informants to keep him in the loop, if he observes Rhaegar and Lyanna together. It certainly could be after the winter, while he is on his way back to the Fingers that he sees the two, near Harrenhal.

Finally, I think Brandon would have gone after Lyanna regardless of how the news of her kidnapping was painted. Even if Lyanna herself had been willing and Brandon knew it, Rhaegar, who was a married man, had still eloped with a betrothed woman, meaning her dishonor was guaranteed from the start. And the insult to house Stark would have still been palpable; Lyanna was very young, and no one in her family had given her leave to go off with Rhaegar. And Rhaegar himself had certainly not been given the okay by ol' Lord Rickard. So there was never any way that Rhaegar could be innocent in this situation; regardless of Lyanna's attitude, he would have been fully aware that her family and her betrothed would be affronted.

In light of all this, I can't imagine what new angle LF's involvement would bring to the affair. If it were to be revealed, there wouldn't really be any implications; nothing would be changed, because he really couldn't have made things worse. They were plenty bad enough to begin with.

And on top of everything, the books never drop the slightest hint that LF played any role beyond the duel -- at least not so far as I can tell. So this is why I just don't see a reason to entertain the notion.

If Littlefinger puts it forward that Rhaegar abducted Lyannna against her will and is forcibly raping her, in a message purportedly from another person, Brandon will fly into a rage. We know him as the wild wolf. If Lyanna and Rhaegar simply met and began travelling together, Brandon certainly should contact his father before recklessly riding into King's Landing to demand Aerys' send Rhaegar out to fight him.

[Dragonfish]

He was opened from navel to breast collarbone. He was incapacitated long enough to get involved with Lysa while delirious, and mistake her for Catelyn.

Just a minor note: Littlefinger didn't mistake Lysa for Cat while he was recovering from his fight with Brandon; it was while he was drunk one night, after having been rejected by Cat, before the duel with Brandon.

[Jon Icefyre]

Jon will leave the Night's Watch if he cannot defend the realms of men while a part of it. That is his calling, and everything he does. If he can better defend the realms of men as Lord of Winterfell, or King in the North, he will do it.

I couldn't agree with this more. I think people are getting way too caught up in the whole "Jon keeping his vows" thing. Circumstances have changed greatly for the NW, this isn't about simply keeping your honor and guarding the wall from wildlings for life anymore. The Others have come back after being away for thousands of years with the intention of heading south and Jon is fully aware of this. So for Jon the most important thing isn't keeping his damn honor anymore, it's protecting the realm from the white walkers the best way he can! Right now what the NW need more than anything is more men, cause as of now they have too few to defeat the Others, and as LC Jon can't force the realm to give the watch more men if they don't want to. Ahh but as a king or even Lord of Winterfell Jon would be in the best position he could possibly be in to help defend the wall against the Others. As a king or lord Jon would be able to command his bannermen/army/armies to march to the wall and help the NW in the war with the Others the same way Stannis marched his men to the wall to help fight the wildlings. If Jon doesn't figure this out on his own i'm sure someone will tell him this simple revelation. Whether Jon wants to be a King/Lord or not he will become one if he knows that's the only way he can get support from the realm in order help the NW in the war with the Others.

[Techelles]

He was opened from navel to breast collarbone. He was incapacitated long enough to get involved with Lysa while delirious, and mistake her for Catelyn. The story that I recall was that Littlefinger was offered a chance to yield seven times, and on the seventh he had nearly been mortally wounded, the wound described.

Heh, perhaps I remembered the wound incorrectly, sorry. Still, it doesn't affect my argument. In fact, if I thought it was worth it, I could even try to make the case that the more time LF spent incapacitated in bed, the less time and energy he would have had for schemes. But again, these are not at all my main points.

I don't think that he needs a network of informants to keep him in the loop, if he observes Rhaegar and Lyanna together. It certainly could be after the winter, while he is on his way back to the Fingers that he sees the two, near Harrenhal.

This scenario depends upon a whole lot of happenstance. First, it would have to mean that LF didn't leave Riverrun until just before the rebellion, that is, he didn't leave until at just the right moment in the one-year window in which he could have left that I established in my last post. Second, he'd have to have been the one person in the seven kingdoms who just happened to run into the prince and his mistress on the road. It just seems like a little much, especially if there is no evidence for it.

And if he did have this information, does he have the resources to disseminate it? Ravens, men at his command, money to pay men to deliver the message, etc? Not that I think he ever had the scoop in the first place. ...I guess he could have just started a nasty rumor, but again, I have to emphasize that I don't think it would have made much difference.

If Littlefinger puts it forward that Rhaegar abducted Lyannna against her will and is forcibly raping her, in a message purportedly from another person, Brandon will fly into a rage. We know him as the wild wolf. If Lyanna and Rhaegar simply met and began travelling together, Brandon certainly should contact his father before recklessly riding into King's Landing to demand Aerys' send Rhaegar out to fight him.

We don't know where Lyanna was staying, but we do know that wherever she was, she, a betrothed young girl, was not supposed to be running around with the married prince, especially not without the knowledge or supervision of her family. This is simply not appropriate fraternization for either of them. She was supposed to stay wherever she was sojourning until her wedding, not travelling.

I think that if Brandon heard that his sister had left the place she was supposed to be to go travelling with Rhaegar, it would have been enough to elicit a rash reaction. He would have regarded it as an elopement.

But I've just been speaking as if the report that reached Brandon was rather mild. It could well have been incendiary and suggestive of force without LF's involvement. Not many in the North or the Riverlands would have interpreted the situation kindly.

Also, his father was in King's Landing, which is where Brandon went. Oops.

[MtnLion]

Also, his father was in King's Landing, which is where Brandon went.

You lost me here, whose father was in King's Landing? Surely not Rickard Stark, because it is clear that he was sent for.

[Techelles]

You lost me here, whose father was in King's Landing? Surely not Rickard Stark, because it is clear that he was sent for.

Was Rickard not in KL before Brandon? That's what I was thinking, but now that I think again, you are right about that. Damn...keep dropping my facts.

Ahem. Yet I stand by the rest. (Regarding that, though, I'm about out of ammunition. We're in some pretty speculative territory.)

[corbon]

Ahem. Yet I stand by the rest. Regarding that, though, I'm about out of ammunition. We're in some pretty speculative territory.

Yes, LF's potential involvement is entirely speculatory and people who bring it forward should probably be clear about that (its my favourite theory, but I do try to be clear that it is 100% speculative).. There is no actual evidence for it. It just fits so 'neatly' within everything else.

And it provides a template for the later LF MO. Insert random misinformation and benefit from the chaos that follows. He had to learn that somewhere

[corbon]

Heh, perhaps I remembered the wound incorrectly, sorry. Still, it doesn't affect my argument. In fact, if I thought it was worth it, I could even try to make the case that the more time LF spent incapacitated in bed, the less time and energy he would have had for schemes. But again, these are not at all my main points.

One of the points of the theory is that it is a perfect 'on the fly' plan, with no plotting or planning required.

This scenario depends upon a whole lot of happenstance. First, it would have to mean that LF didn't leave Riverrun until just before the rebellion, that is, he didn't leave until at just the right moment in the one-year window in which he could have left that I established in my last post. Second, he'd have to have been the one person in the seven kingdoms who just happened to run into the prince and his mistress on the road. It just seems like a little much, especially if there is no evidence for it.

The only happenstance required is that LF meets or sees R+L on the road. Timing, thats all. Like Cat and Tyrion meeting in the inn, or any number of other events.

Since Lyanna has probably been spending a fair amount of time around Riverrun, where her brother will be married and there are age-and-station appropriate young women that will become family, she probably knows Littlefinger as at least a 'familiar face' who is known at Riverrun. So she may trust him to pass a message on - he has access to Riverrun and can pass a message on to her father using the ravens there, and others.

And if he did have this information, does he have the resources to disseminate it? Ravens, men at his command, money to pay men to deliver the message, etc? Not that I think he ever had the scoop in the first place. ...I guess he could have just started a nasty rumor, but again, I have to emphasize that I don't think it would have made much difference.

no resources are required. All he has to do is return to Riverrun with a 'message from Lyanna'. Thats it. Whether he has one or not.

We don't know where Lyanna was staying, but we do know that wherever she was, she, a betrothed young girl, was not supposed to be running around with the married prince, especially not without the knowledge or supervision of her family. This is simply not appropriate fraternization for either of them. She was supposed to stay wherever she was sojourning until her wedding, not travelling.

Exactly.

Yet she was a famous horsewoman, of independent and wild spirit. No doubt at all she was accustomed to riding out wherever she was.

I think that if Brandon heard that his sister had left the place she was supposed to be to go travelling with Rhaegar, it would have been enough to elicit a rash reaction. He would have regarded it as an elopement.

But I've just been speaking as if the report that reached Brandon was rather mild. It could well have been incendiary and suggestive of force without LF's involvement. Not many in the North or the Riverlands would have interpreted the situation kindly.

Rash, but that inconceivably stupid? An action that has zero prospect of a positive result in any form? An action that never even mentions his sister or her situation at all in fact? Just ride up to the gates of a paranoid king, with a small group, and demand the crown prince come out to die? Its not even clearly a proper challenge!

It really seems that something particularly incendiary must be required to explain Brandon's actions, wild wolf or not.

[SFDanny]

Never mind. I think I see a problem here.

[Lady Green]

I couldn't agree with this more. I think people are getting way too caught up in the whole "Jon keeping his vows" thing. Circumstances have changed greatly for the NW, this isn't about simply keeping your honor and guarding the wall from wildlings for life anymore. The Others have come back after being away for thousands of years with the intention of heading south and Jon is fully aware of this. So for Jon the most important thing isn't keeping his damn honor anymore, it's protecting the realm from the white walkers the best way he can! Right now what the NW need more than anything is more men, cause as of now they have too few to defeat the Others, and as LC Jon can't force the realm to give the watch more men if they don't want to. Ahh but as a king or even Lord of Winterfell Jon would be in the best position he could possibly be in to help defend the wall against the Others. As a king or lord Jon would be able to command his bannermen/army/armies to march to the wall and help the NW in the war with the Others the same way Stannis marched his men to the wall to help fight the wildlings. If Jon doesn't figure this out on his own i'm sure someone will tell him this simple revelation. Whether Jon wants to be a King/Lord or not he will become one if he knows that's the only way he can get support from the realm in order help the NW in the war with the Others.

I hadn't considered this til now, but as Jon has grown this is within his character, though who is likely to point that out to him, Sam's in Oldtown and he's the most likely to notice! Unless he has a conversation with a Wilding of some description and they inadvertantly tell him.

[Arya Targaryen]

I hadn't considered this til now, but as Jon has grown this is within his character, though who is likely to point that out to him, Sam's in Oldtown and he's the most likely to notice! Unless he has a conversation with a Wilding of some description and they inadvertantly tell him.

I don't think Jon needs to be told, he already knows. Bowen Marsh manages to find the proper reasoning :cool4:

Anyway, in his last chapters he starts to act more and more like a King in the North (arranging marriage, letting wildlings throug, securing a loan, etc). And he sees the limits of his power there. And if the Boltons threaten his already limited power up there, while he knows hew should deal with the Others, than the Boltons should be defeated. If Stannis is dead, than he himself has to do it. Even if it is oathbreaking.