Does Quentyn Martell's demise mean the end of a Dornish/Dany alliance?

[Yukle]

You are still not telling me anything whatsoever that shows that Dany will succeed where her less-stupid ancestors have failed.

ETA: Also, Dany subtle? Uh .... OK.

I have no idea how Dany will go. It's hardly likely that she is going to die in an anticlimactic arrest in Sunspear and it's equally unlikely that Dorne will simply forget that Dany refused Quentyn's offer. Although she didn't exactly tell him to release the dragons, I agree that they'd hold her responsible for his death,

Dany will learn from her invasion attempts so far. With no real army any more, what can she be but subtle? The Martells have few living heirs (plus the Sand Snakes, if they count) and if Dany was to kill all of them in a short space of time (or at least, prevent them doing much), Dorne is without a leader. That doesn't suddenly mean that the whole of the region will just change alliances, but it will spark chaos within it. Dany can emerge from the chaos as the new ruler - something she has managed to do already in Mereen. She also faced guerrilla fighting each night, and began trying to think of counter-tactics.

[redviper9]

Because they succeeded once, it doesn't mean they'll succeed forever. After all, the First Men held the North much longer than the Rhoynar held Dorne and they still eventually found a battle not worth fighting any more.

No one can withstand a fight without food and water. What's to say Dany doesn't transport people with the flux into Drone? Or that she might dump corpses into every river? There's also the fact that they certainly wouldn't be expecting such an attack as they'd only just sent Quentyn over a relatively short time before.

Dany could be subtle about things, and have poisons or diseases disrupting Dorne well before she ever bothers revealing herself, or while she fights in Westeros. The wars of Westeros prove that nothing lasts forever, even Dorne.

That seems out of character, but it's not impossible to conquer Dorne. Agreed, it's difficult, but why go to such lengths to prove that Dorne is invincible if not to have them fall?

True, hypothetically Dorne and the North could be conquered; but Westerosi history speaks against it. Yes, Nymeria and the Rhoynar succeeded in Dorne, but only after she married into the Martells (actually, marriage seems to be the only way Dorne can be subdued). And the North has never been successfully conquered. We don't know if Aegon and his sisters would have succeeded because Torrhen decided that discretion was the better part of valor. The Greyjoys took a few strategic positions, but we all saw how that worked out for them in the end (see Moat Cailin, Crannogmen unleashing hell at, and Deepwood Motte, Mountain Clans and Stannis routing Asha's force).

You mention Quentyn and how Dorne wouldn't be expecting an attack, so I have to ask: have you read the Arianne chapter that GRRM released recently? If you haven't already, you really should; I'm including the link below.

And really, Dany, subtle? Public crucifixion Dany? "I'm going to kill all the Usurper's Dogs" Dany? The Dany whose fling with Daario is widely known? As Tormund would say: har!

http://georgerrmartin.com/if-sample.html

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I have no idea how Dany will go. It's hardly likely that she is going to die in an anticlimactic arrest in Sunspear and it's equally unlikely that Dorne will simply forget that Dany refused Quentyn's offer. Although she didn't exactly tell him to release the dragons, I agree that they'd hold her responsible for his death,

Dany will learn from her invasion attempts so far. With no real army any more, what can she be but subtle? The Martells have few living heirs (plus the Sand Snakes, if they count) and if Dany was to kill all of them in a short space of time (or at least, prevent them doing much), Dorne is without a leader. That doesn't suddenly mean that the whole of the region will just change alliances, but it will spark chaos within it. Dany can emerge from the chaos as the new ruler - something she has managed to do already in Mereen. She also faced guerrilla fighting each night, and began trying to think of counter-tactics.

Yeah and that went so well. She's already shown that she's completely impotent when it comes to guerilla tactics and so are her troops. Which will work out so well in Dorne, where guerilla warfare is just how they do things.

Also the idea that Dany has actually learned anything of value is quaint and cute.

I'm not saying that Dany's going to die in Dorne, just that she's going to carry on the proud family tradition of being unable to conquer it. The only way Dorne can be subdued is through marriage. She threw that away and now Aegon has the chance to take advantage.

[Yukle]

And really, Dany, subtle? Public crucifixion Dany? "I'm going to kill all the Usurper's Dogs" Dany? The Dany whose fling with Daario is widely known? As Tormund would say: har!

That was before she found herself starving, naked and bleeding in the Dothraki Sea. I think that has humbled her a bit.

It seems strange to have a huge setup between Dorne, who appears to be historically impossible to defeat and a woman has almost lost everything and then have the strong Dorne win. Dany hasn't gone through so much in the story to be beaten by characters not properly introduced until the fourth book.

[Techelles]

Yes, Doran is almost certain to side with Aegon, but it would be extremely stupid of Dany actually to attack Dorne. Why waste her time in a futile war in a land where dragons are notoriously ineffective when she could go after the throne, which is what actually matters? Then if Dorne wants a fight, they'll have to come to her, meaning they'd lose their home turf advantage. And on the other hand, if they don't move against her, then they aren't exactly a threat. I can see Dorne becoming independent again -- or failing that, it could be brought in with a marriage alliance. Not that Dany is necessarily going to sit the IT, of course.

ETA: Then again, she has been wasting her time in a futile war in Slaver's Bay.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

That was before she found herself starving, naked and bleeding in the Dothraki Sea. I think that has humbled her a bit.

It seems strange to have a huge setup between Dorne, who appears to be historically impossible to defeat and a woman has almost lost everything and then have the strong Dorne win. Dany hasn't gone through so much in the story to be beaten by characters not properly introduced until the fourth book.

Dany's getting her ass kicked by an old lady wearing green and she's too oblivious to even notice it. Somehow I don't think the Martells are "beneath" her.

[Faint]

The prophecies at the House of the Undying don't even bother showcasing the Martells which indicates to me that any confrontation specifically with them will factor little in her overall story.

[Yukle]

Yeah and that went so well. She's already shown that she's completely impotent when it comes to guerilla tactics and so are her troops. Which will work out so well in Dorne, where guerilla warfare is just how they do things.

Also the idea that Dany has actually learned anything of value is quaint and cute.

Put it this way: What has Doran Martell actually done? His one act of vengeance was to sign a pact that would see Arianne and Viserys married and then bide his time. He wasn't ruler at the time of Robert's Rebellion (probably, he may have been for part of it depending on when his mother died) and his family picked the losing side. Then his next great plan, to marry Quentyn and Dany, also didn't work out. What experience does he actually have of war?

The best commander they had was the Red Viper and he is dead.

He has no real experience at all, whereas Dany has fought in Yunkai and Mereen, and had hostile reactions throughout. Her experiences of violence are many and even if she learnt from only one in a hundred it'd surely give her more knowledge that Doran.

If the two parties fight, then Dany will win. If it's a test of wills, hers are iron and Doran doesn't seem to be a war-type person. Look at how he locked up the Sand Snakes so as not to risk a battle. He seems to be concerned about Dorne's strength in battle.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Put it this way: What has Doran Martell actually done? His one act of vengeance was to sign a pact that would see Arianne and Viserys married and then bide his time. He wasn't ruler at the time of Robert's Rebellion (probably, he may have been for part of it depending on when his mother died) and his family picked the losing side. Then his next great plan, to marry Quentyn and Dany, also didn't work out. What experience does he actually have of war?

The best commander they had was the Red Viper and he is dead.

He has no real experience at all, whereas Dany has fought in Yunkai and Mereen, and had hostile reactions throughout. Her experiences of violence are many and even if she learnt from only one in a hundred it'd surely give her more knowledge that Doran.

If the two parties fight, then Dany will win. If it's a test of wills, hers are iron and Doran doesn't seem to be a war-type person. Look at how he locked up the Sand Snakes so as not to risk a battle. He seems to be concerned about Dorne's strength in battle.

Mariya Martell was a shriveled little 80-year-old woman. I'm just going to leave that there.

And Dany herself hasn't really fought anything, by the way. She didn't crawl through the sewers, nor did she personally ambush the Yunkai armies. She sat her in tent.

[I Am Azor Ahai]

I still think Quetyn may be resurrected. Possibly by Moquorro.

Dorne will stand by Aegon, either way. Arianne is another schemer. She wants to get as high as she can and she will die.

[Yukle]

And Dany herself hasn't really fought anything, by the way. She didn't crawl through the sewers, nor did she personally ambush the Yunkai armies. She sat her in tent.

That's hardly any different to half of the commanders throughout the Known World. Doran hasn't even done the commanding part. Dany has experience of strategy and he doesn't. Also, Mariya seems to be a much braver person than the Martells still alive.

No region is invulnerable. Most readers expect the Wall to fall, and its history is far far far longer than Dorne's. Between a giant wall of ice and the fall of Robb's North to a surprise Ironborn attack, I think anything is possible. Incidentally, possible is not necessarily likely. Who knows what Dany will do? If it comes to attack, I think she'll win but I really cannot guess where her story goes next. I thought she'd be in Westeros by now.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

That's hardly any different to half of the commanders throughout the Known World. Doran hasn't even done the commanding part. Dany has experience of strategy and he doesn't. Also, Mariya seems to be a much braver person than the Martells still alive.

No region is invulnerable. Most readers expect the Wall to fall, and its history is far far far longer than Dorne's. Between a giant wall of ice and the fall of Robb's North to a surprise Ironborn attack, I think anything is possible. Incidentally, possible is not necessarily likely. Who knows what Dany will do? If it comes to attack, I think she'll win but I really cannot guess where her story goes next. I thought she'd be in Westeros by now.

You and everyone else. I don't know exactly what she'll do either, but I fully expect for her to face plant at some point like the useless egotist she is, and can hardly wait.

Still though, no good reason — again, for the sixth time or whatever — to think that Dany can succeed in Dorne where her betters have failed. I'll keep saying this until it sinks in.

[Mladen]

I still think Quetyn may be resurrected. Possibly by Moquorro.

Dorne will stand by Aegon, either way. Arianne is another schemer. She wants to get as high as she can and she will die.

My God, what a ghastly idea. Quentyn was severly burned, hat he`ll be looking like? Like a living proof what hapenns if you get near dragons?

@Apple, no need of convincing, Dany will make the same mistake her father did, she will screw things up royally

[redviper9]

That's hardly any different to half of the commanders throughout the Known World. Doran hasn't even done the commanding part. Dany has experience of strategy and he doesn't. Also, Mariya seems to be a much braver person than the Martells still alive.

Yep, those cravenly Martells. I mean look at Doran, taking the time to know his potential allies and enemies, making sure that no one knows what his next move might be, and thinking that one shouldn't get into a fight unless there's a good chance it could be won. Or that Arianne; she didn't risk anything or anyone when she decided to crown Myrcella. And only a coward would agree to go meet with (F)Aegon not knowing what kind of reception she'll receive. And it was such a cowardly move on Quentyn's part to risk life and limb against two dragons for the good of his homeland. And don't even get me started on Oberyn and those daughters of his: always hiding in Sunspear like the wusses they are/were.

Still though, no good reason — again, for the sixth time or whatever — to think that Dany can succeed in Dorne where her betters have failed. I'll keep saying this until it sinks in.

Preach it!

[Yukle]

Yep, those cravenly Martells. I mean look at Doran, taking the time to know his potential allies and enemies, making sure that no one knows what his next move might be, and thinking that one shouldn't get into a fight unless there's a good chance it could be won. Or that Arianne; she didn't risk anything or anyone when she decided to crown Myrcella. And only a coward would agree to go meet with (F)Aegon not knowing what kind of reception she'll receive. And it was such a cowardly move on Quentyn's part to risk life and limb against two dragons for the good of his homeland. And don't even get me started on Oberyn and those daughters of his: always hiding in Sunspear like the wusses they are/were.

The same Doran whose daughter told him, "For Tywin Lannister you always had the forbearance of Baelor the Blessed but for your own blood none?" And she said that he disappointed her. In the end, his plans for revenge can to nothing. The Red Viper was brave by taking on a giant nutcase but Doran seems to be completely terrified of fighting. If Dorne is so strong and so impervious to external invasion, why not be done with it and simply refuse to declare for Joffrey and Tommen rather than bide his time?

[Djinn]

So Daeron with dragons and 50000 troops couldn't keep Dorne(and only conquered it by Alyn Velaryon merit), but Danaerys will? Unlikely.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

So Daeron with dragons and 50000 troops couldn't keep Dorne(and only conquered it by Alyn Velaryon merit), but Danaerys will? Unlikely.

But ... but ... subtlety.

[lady m]

The same Doran whose daughter told him, "For Tywin Lannister you always had the forbearance of Baelor the Blessed but for your own blood none?" And she said that he disappointed her. In the end, his plans for revenge can to nothing. The Red Viper was brave by taking on a giant nutcase but Doran seems to be completely terrified of fighting. If Dorne is so strong and so impervious to external invasion, why not be done with it and simply refuse to declare for Joffrey and Tommen rather than bide his time?

Because the goal is Tywin, not Gregor Cleagane. Doran has patience, he waits till he has an advantage and then strikes. That's not cowardice, that's strategy. And I believe Arianne fully got on board his plans once he revealed them to her.

[redviper9]

The same Doran whose daughter told him, "For Tywin Lannister you always had the forbearance of Baelor the Blessed but for your own blood none?" And she said that he disappointed her. In the end, his plans for revenge can to nothing. The Red Viper was brave by taking on a giant nutcase but Doran seems to be completely terrified of fighting. If Dorne is so strong and so impervious to external invasion, why not be done with it and simply refuse to declare for Joffrey and Tommen rather than bide his time?

You know, Doran has a particularly useful character trait called subtlety...perhaps you've heard of it?

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

Playing Devil's advocate here: Doran points out that Dorn's success wasn't what everyone seem's to believe it was. Guerrilla warfare? Unlike the original Targs, whose forces were mostly 'standard' sell swords, Dany has Unsullied & Dothraki...both very good at dealing with that sort of thing! & Dorn would be the most like the Free Cities, so the disadvantages they would have in the rest of Westeros, not so big there.