Does Quentyn Martell's demise mean the end of a Dornish/Dany alliance?

[WardenOfTheNorth]

I was just curious about this. Doran, Arianne, and maybe even the Sand Snakes(we know how volatile they can be) might blame Dany for what happened to Quentyn. As a result, this could spell an end for Dany's potential Dornish alliance...especially since Griff means to court them for Aegon. So what do you guys think?

[Mjoll]

I have thought about this myself. I have a strong feeling that she could very well loose Dorne to Aegon. What has Dany done for Dorne? And she stays in Meereen, whereas Aegon has definite plans to go to Westeros. It's easier to rally behind someone who is physically there. And lets not forget, the people in Westeros don't even know Dany is alive.

[BericDondarrion]

Why wouldn't Westeros know Dany is alive? Her mom and Viserys were smuggled away .

No way Dorne stands for Dany.

Aegon is supposedly Rhaegars and Elia MARTELLS son. You think Doran backs Dany over his late sisters son?

[Fire Eater]

If Droan hears about Quentyn's fate, he may die, leaving Arianne the ruler of Dorne. Arianne may think Dany is mad like her father, and that she gave Quentyn to her dragons.

Plus, if Arianne rashly marries Aegon, and then Dany comes to Westeros claiming Aegon is a fake, then conflict between Dany and Arianne is inevitable.

[Lady Seaworth]

I don't know why they wouldn't blame Dany for Quentyn's death. Although Quentyn was admittedly reckless, that doesn't change the fact that it was Dany's dragons that gave him a good roasting. Obviously Dany didn't intend for it to happen, but I don't really imagine the Dornish going "Oh, your dragons burnt Quentyn to cinders? Bit of a faux pas, but we'll overlook it".

[Daemul]

Doran isn't an imbecile like Arianne and the Sand Snakes, he would want to hear both sides of the story before doing something extraordinarily drastic like.withdrawing his support from a verified Targ who has dragons to back her up to instead support a out of the blue Targ who may be fake. The one saving grace is that from the sample chapters, Arianne is doing the smart thing and going to check on this pretender and see for herself whether he's who he says he is , which atleast shows she has a higher IQ than the Sand Snakes and Darkstar, not that it shows much.

[a white raven]

Don't you think Dany might be a little peeved at Dorne? "you send an envoy disguised as a suitor and try to steal MY dragons?!" "prepare to be roasted."

[wimpypuppy]

Dany has no issue with Dorne. She never suspected Quentyn of trying to steal her dragons. If I recall correctly, she kind of hinted that his only shot with her was if he could impress her with the dragons.

Doran may forgive her, depending on the story he hears, but as of right now Aegon's got the upper hand.

[Tony Soprano]

I can't believe people are actually saying Doran might actually look past his son's death. That's not something you forget or forgive. Danny treated him like dirt, laughed in his face and flat out rejected him without hearing him out.

Danny will be blamed for Quentyn's death by both Doran and Arianne. Honestly, I don't think Doran will rule Dorne for much longer, but I'm pretty sure Arianne will never ally Dorne with the woman who caused her brother's death.

[Ciglon]

Personally, I think (unfortunately) Doran's days are numbered and he will soon die, either knowing his son is dead and heartbroken, or not knowing anything and his plans having been, for all he knows, fruitless. :crying:

That said, if it came to war between Aegon and Dany, it's complicated.

On one hand, Dorne would go for Aegon, only because he is the son of Elia, [assuming they believe he's really Aegon obv.] and that's more important to Dorne's heart than Elia's sister-in-law. They could hardly be expected to go to war against Aegon, ever.

That said, would it be wise to go to war with a woman who has three dragons?

It all depends if Dorne believes Aegon is real. If they do, they'll support his claim, if not, they'll support Dany, that said, it'll be hard to support his claim when Dany is threatening them with dragons, so it'll really be up to Arianne at that point whether she will cautiously try to protect her people or stand up for Elia's son's birthright and place him

[Ser Creighton]

They will go all in on Aegon, he has to get some backing or his story is a dead end. Get ready for yet another war. Dorne and the Gold comapny vs. the Lannisters and Tyrells. And I think I can lock it down that the Vale will once again sit this one out and why not they can just sit back and watch everyone destroy themselves.

[lady m]

That said, would it be wise to go to war with a woman who has three dragons?

What do they care. Full grown dragons didn't ever conquer the Dornish, Dany's adolescent ones will not be seen as a threat. Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken

This is a man who has born a grudge for 17 years for his sister and her children. There is no way he's ever allying with Dany after his own son gets killed by her pets. And since Arianne started listening to Doran he seems to be trusting her to be his advisor and

she doesn't like Dany and blames her for Viserys death. She will counsel against any sort of alliance with Dany.

. And once Gerris Drinkwater and Archibald Yronwood tell how Dany blew Quentyn off, which she didn't so much as treat him in a condescending manner of someone giving a little boy a pat on the head and sending him back to the kids table, Doran nor Arianne will consider allying with Dany.

[Lion of Judah]

I have no doubt that when they find out about Quentyn that Dany will get the blame. I think Dorne may posture with Dany, but their allegiance will lie with Aegon and they will help him try to steal one of Danys dragons.

[devilrob6]

I have seen in a lot of posts that people expect Dany and Aegon to be on opposite sides. Didn't Aegon go to Westeros to have something to offer to Dany when asking to marry her (on Tyrion's advice?). Both Dorne and Aegon were seeking for alliance with Dany. I think a Dany/Aegon/Dorne alliance could be a possibilty.

[WardenOfTheNorth]

Personally, I think (unfortunately) Doran's days are numbered and he will soon die, either knowing his son is dead and heartbroken, or not knowing anything and his plans having been, for all he knows, fruitless. :crying:

That said, if it came to war between Aegon and Dany, it's complicated.

On one hand, Dorne would go for Aegon, only because he is the son of Elia, [assuming they believe he's really Aegon obv.] and that's more important to Dorne's heart than Elia's sister-in-law. They could hardly be expected to go to war against Aegon, ever.

That said, would it be wise to go to war with a woman who has three dragons?

It all depends if Dorne believes Aegon is real. If they do, they'll support his claim, if not, they'll support Dany, that said, it'll be hard to support his claim when Dany is threatening them with dragons, so it'll really be up to Arianne at that point whether she will cautiously try to protect her people or stand up for Elia's son's birthright and place him

I note that you and Alex Baratheon think Doran wont rule Dorne for much longer. Why is that? Did I miss something? I know Doran is sick, but his sickness doesnt seem to be life threatning, and I dont remember any war/rebellion going on in Dorne as of yet.

[Mulled Wino]

So dany caused Quentyn to try to steal a dragon like an idiot?

JC wants to marry aegon and dany iirc

[Florina Laufeyson]

To the OP: Oohhohoh yeah.

Dorne doesnt know Quentyn is dead yet, but once they do...shit will hit the fan.

below is a spoiler for a WoW sample chapter.

Arianne is already wondering where Quentyn is. She also notes that she received information that Dany was responsible for Viserys' death. Ya know, the guy she was gonna marry due to a secret pact? Yeah. She is most displeased and even suspects that Dany killed him to get rid of him so she could gain the throne.

Shes also skeptical of Aegon but is entering his orbit....

So yeah when they find out about Quentyn, they will be very pissed off and wont declare for her at all.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I'm going to go with a big yes. Because Quentyn's dead, for one. Aegon's in the picture, for another. Even if Doran and the Sand Snakes don't hold Dany responsible for Quentyn's death — a big if in the latter's case especially — Aegon is still closer, of closer relation and a more convenient marriage prospect. The Martells would be crazy to side with a girl who isn't even there yet and no longer a marriage prospect over someone with a better claim who's there NOW and can marry Arianne.

ETA: Oh and Dorne successfully withstood Aegon and his sisters, who were competent and had three fully grown dragons. So this "oh but they'd never fight someone with three dragons!" is BS. Dorne has shrugged off better Targaryens before.

[Faint]

Yeah, many did not agree, but in my opinion . . .

. . . the Arianne POV chapters from The Winds of Winter are laying the groundwork for Arianne to throw caution to the wind where Aegon is concerned as a continuing symptom of her fear that her brother will upstage her. She is already making incorrect assumptions about Daenerys from what little information she has about her, so one can only imagine how she will interpret the events surrounding her brother's death.

We should also consider that Martin is quite fond of subverting expectations in this manner. Almost everyone has for some time now had the quite reasonable expectation that Dorne would support Daenerys, which is actually a very good reason to think it will not happen.

When she does build a coalition to back her, it will probably be made up of her father's enemies.

[Yukle]

I wonder... is a battle between Aegon and Dany loyalists really what the story needs right now?

As for Dorne battling better dragons before, that's certainly true. However, I wouldn't put it past Dany to fly to Sunspear on Drogon and say, "Hey, what's up? Who's Queen now?"