(Un)Catelyn Tully Queen of the North

[Lord Freypie]

Many consider common knowledge that

- Robb designated Jon as his heir in a document usually called Robb's will

- This document was given to Robart Glover or Maege Mormont who were going to visit Howland Reed

Then whole theories based on that developp ideas like a Great Northern Conspiracy to crown Jon, etc... to explain why the will was never spoken about again (so far).

It's well and good, but sadly there is no textual evidence of the two "facts" above. So let's consider another scenario.

The only chapter where Robb succession is discussed, is the one before the Red Wedding, and is structured like that.

* Cat and Robb discuss about the need to name a heir to Robb as Sansa is now a Lannister, and Jeine is not pregnant

- Cat suggest some Royce cousin from the Vale without having a precise name to give, and Robb announce his will to name Jon

- Cat vehemently oppose him with several arguments including a bastard can't inherit, and Jon being in the nightsguard he renounced any crown

- Jon say that as he king he may legitimize Jon, and that he may send men to the nightswatch to obtain that Jon is released of his vows

- Then Cat complain about the risks to see Jon's child become pretenders and rivals to the eventual heirs of Jon with Jeyne, using the example of the Blackfyre to show that legitimizing bastards is a bad idea

- They leave on a disagreement

An important thing to note at this point, is when Cat speaks about legitimized bastard sons able to become rival to Robb's sons she implies that Robb will first legitimize Jon (so he can inherit), when still alive (obviously a dead king can't legitimize anyone), then, eventually some years later, when the two have childs and Robb die there may be a problem.

As well, when Jon consider sending men to the nightswatch, he isn't saying "if I die my lords may send men to the nightswatch in exchange for Jon to be released of his vows" but considering himself to send men to the nightswatch.

The two seem to agree on one point, the course of events to name Jon heir : 1. legitimize him as a king, 2. obtain his release from the NW, 3. then he can be heir. None is speaking about doing that only if Robb dies.

* Then during several days Robb don't speak to Cat.

- Not much things to note out of the mention Cat suspect Robb barely sleep and he looks disturbed

He may eventually look like someone thinking hard about a decision (but as he has a lot to take as king it's not necessarily related with his succession).

* Then there's the famous meeting with several lords in Robb's tent

- First they learn about Balon's death from a sailor

- Then Robb announce his plan to reconquer the North (attack Moat Calin at least), and ask Maege Mormont and Robart Glover to visit Howland Reed to ask for his help, and carry orders for his vassals in the north (with a false version in case they are captured)

- Then Robb announce to Cat she will be sent to Seaguard until the end of the war, under the protection of the Mallisters

- When Cat object and says she'd prefer to stay in Riverrun, Jon answer he doesn't want his two treasures, Jeyne and Cat, to be in the same place, as it would tempt thieves

- Then, Robb take one parchment, make a speech about the risk to die heirless like Balon

- He then says he has spent a long time thinking about this question before taking a decision, and asks the lords to put their seals on that document naming his heir, without mentionning his or her name

- Cat then thinks something like "he is really a king now, let's hope the trap he has for the Greyjoys will work as well as the one he just used to trap me" (note : I don't have the third book in english, feel free correct that quote) ; Cat don't protest again about being sent to Seaguard and the chapter ends there

This part asks a lot of question :

- Why make Robb not mention Jon in his speech, if he was taking the obvious choice, the reader has already seen in the beginning of the chapter ? And if it was Jon why did no lords object that he is a bastard and a nightswatch man ? It's not like legitimizing bastards and asking crows to betray their vows happen everyday, I hardly imagine nobody would have reacted to something so exceptionnal.

- Like we have seen above, the logical course to name Jon heir included three steps : legitimizing him (a royal edict made when Robb is alive as only a king can), freeing for his vows (a diplomatic action with the NW, logically made asap as well), and finally naming him heir ; so why is there only one parchment ? and why is there no mention of sending a message to the nightswatch when 2 messengers are going to the north ? (nor any mention of Robb wanting to send raven mail from the Twins where he is in the next chapter)

- Why make lords sign Robb's will after discussing the sending of the 2 messengers north with orders (but without mentionning that parchment), if they were supposed to carry it ? Would have been more logical to discuss Robb's will at the same time as the other orders they were to carry (and also make 2 parchments, as their were 2 messengers in 2 boats, and risking to be captured like Robb said).

My conclusion is the answer of all these questions are the same : Robb heir isn't Jon, and Maege Mormont and Robart Glover were never supposed to carry Robb's will.

Then paying attention to the part about Jon's 2 treasures risking to tempt thieves, the last thought of Cat and the whole structure of the chapter, I can only make one conclusion the heir Jon named in his will was extremely probably...his own mother Catelyn Tully.

Robb may be a king but he is also someone who know to listen to his mother sometimes, so his thoughts during the several days he spent reconsidering his decision after the first conversation with Cat, have probably been the following :

- the risk to see a legitimized Jon's childs become rivals of mine is real, as good may be my relations with Jon, historic precedents are all but good (+ last time I trusted someone looking like a "brother" it was Theon)

- but I still don't want an unknown cousin from the Vale to be my heir

- so I need to name someone I know and trust, but who shouldn't start his/her own rival dynasty... sadly there are no non bastard Stark available

- my kingdom of the North include the Riverlands, so the best choice after a Stark is a Tully (+ dishineriting Sansa born from a Stark-Tully union to name a Stark-nobody bastard would be an extremely bad political move if I want to keep the Riverlands in the realm)

- I can name Edmure but err.... no, he is not really a clever guy + he is on the way to start his own Tully-Frey dynasty which may also become rival of mine if he learns he is my heir, and our two couples make childs ; better to have a temporary solution first, someone like my mother that will happily give the throne to my childs, letting Edmure inherit only if she is sure there is no other option

- Catelyn is also the best solution because if I die it very probably mean I failed to win the war, and she always wanted to negociate peace and showed some diplomatic qualities ; someone else (ie : Brynden) risk more to be a die hard, and continue the war until nothing remain of the realm

- then I need to place Catelyn in a safe place, different from the one Jeyne is, to be sure the Kingdom of the North continue to exist if I die in this war and one or the other place is lost

Catelyn Tully being Robb heir also explain why she feels trapped in the end. She could have argued more against being sent to Seeguard if it had no importance for the realm, but now she is named heir she has no option but to accept. She is now one of the two most important persons after Robb (the 2 treasures) and must obey king's will for the interest of the realm.

Then the main reason Robb's will has never reappeared is simple : as his heir was in the south Robb had no reason to send the document north with the 2 messengers. Robb's Will has very probably been carried to the Twins with other baggage, where we don't know what happened to it (likely the Frey have it or burned it).

Most of the lords who were at the meeting and then at the Twins, are either dead or prisoners, while the 2 sent to the Neck don't have the will and also believe Catelyn Tully dead. Nobody had any reason to speak about it.

Finally the fact Catelyn Tully has been turned to UnCat take a whole new meaning if she is queen of the north by Robb's will, as we know the UnDeads are focused on a mission, and the one of UnCat may be to insure the Kingdom of the North continue to exist (finding the crown -done-, then eventually finding the will, and an heir, who may be Sansa now that Tyrion is out of the equation, imagining she can find/free her (or Arya or Rickon by the way) ; or her own heir if she believes all Stark childs are dead, Brynden or Edmure Tully). And it may explain why in her last scene she appears with Robb's crown in hand.

And about the Great Northern Conspiracy etc... their goal may well be to find Rickon or Bran and crown one of them. Nothing in the theory need Jon to be their pretender. That Catelyn was Robb heir change nothing to northern lords politics, as they just don't know or believe her dead.

[The Sleeper]

There are some good ideas there, but there some problems as well. The problem with Jon and the Riverlands is almost the same with Catelyn and the North.

The biggest problem with your theory is that Cat is a widow with all her children dead or lost with an immediate need to procreate. Who would get to father these royal offspring could very well be the cause a civil war.

[lostinwesteros]

Wow, lots of time went into your post, and you reminded me of details I had forgotten when reading the book nearly two years ago. I, too, have wondered not only what Robb's will ended up saying, but also what happened to Robert Glover and Maege Mormont...did they get to Howland Reed or not, I wonder. My thinking was that they were well on their way before the RW so might very well have made it.

And Howland Reed is such a mysterious character...the only one living who was at the TOJ. We're also assuming [at least I am] that he was still living when he sent Jojen and Meera to Winterfell, and we know that Jojen has magic [greenseer dreams at least] but don't know if HR knows about Bran's ultimate destination and BR or not. But, I'm getting off track.

I think that Martin is keeping all of this about the will, also whether or not it got to HR, etc., etc. a mystery for us and that it will play a really significant part of how things will play out. By now it's almost a 'minor point', since it's not been emphasized, so that I think many have forgotten all about it. In reality, though, I think it's far from minor.

My personal theory is that Robb did name Jon heir and included the provision that Jon be released from his NW vows. And couldn't it also document that Robb was legitimizing him as part of his will, not necessarily having to do it in person? That would, in my mind, make it "OK" for Jon to leave the wall and go to Winterfell (which I'm hoping he'll do next book) and it would also put him in a position to have his true lineage [i'm a R + L = J theorist, myself] revealed. I also think RG and MM did make it to HR, and that will play a significant part in what's to come.

ETA: I realized I didn't address your main premise at all - sorry! To that I'd have to say Catelyn, dead or undead, is not to be Queen of the North.

[Lord Freypie]

I've not imagined Robb considered Catelyn would remarry and have childs.

For me his goal was insuring continuity of the realm in short/mid term, without risk for his own heirs if he died while his wife was pregnant (which was an immediate possibility, as he couldn't be sure she wasn't when he left Riverrun and was going to war).

Imagining he would have died at Moat Calin, Catelyn would have inherited, then if Jeyne wasn't pregnant ruled (at her death letting the throne to her heir Edmure, or Edmure child according to how long was her reign, or perhaps another heir she could have named in the meantime, after studying the different options*), or if Jeyne was pregnant acted as a regent until abdicating in favor of Robb's childs.

Catelyn was a way to differ/avoid giving the throne to Edmure, as Robb considered he was unlikely to be able to deal with the situation ; or other lords / unknown cousins he could only trust less than his mother. She was acceptable in the north as the wife of a Stark, and offered a good transition before a Tully with no northern link eventually inherited the throne through her.

[David Selig]

Interesting and original idea. But nothing in Cat's PoV indicates to me she knew about such an arrangement and I don't see why Robb wouldn't have told her. She wouldn't feel trapped and defeated if she was chosen for the heir. She's not afraid of havng power and of responsibility.

Plus given how sexist Westeros is and that Jaime's release has made many of the lords distrust Cat and her abilities, there should've been plenty of objections by them,

[Jabronius Maximus]

Interesting and original idea. But nothing in Cat's PoV indicates to me she knew about such an arrangement and I don't see why Robb wouldn't have told her. She wouldn't feel trapped and defeated if she was chosen for the heir. She's not afraid of havng power and of responsibility.

Plus given how sexist Westeros is and that Jaime's release has made many of the lords distrust Cat and her abilities, there should've been plenty of objections by them,

Pretty much this. Cat is a traitor in the eyes of most northern lords.

[Lord Freypie]

Yes her image after releasing Jaime is the most serious arguement against my theory.

On the other hand, after beheading Karstark Robb had already lost the support of those hating Catelyn for freeing Jaime the most.

(edit : fixed ;) )

[Ghost's Shadow]

Jon?

[The Sleeper]

I've not imagined Robb considered Catelyn would remarry and have childs.

For me his goal was insuring continuity of the realm in short/mid term, without risk for his own heirs if he died while his wife was pregnant (which was an immediate possibility, as he couldn't be sure she wasn't when he left Riverrun and was going to war).

Imagining he would have died at Moat Calin, Catelyn would have inherited, then if Jeyne wasn't pregnant ruled (at her death letting the throne to her heir Edmure, or Edmure child according to how long was her reign, or perhaps another heir she could have named in the meantime, after studying the different options*), or if Jeyne was pregnant acted as a regent until abdicating in favor of Robb's childs.

Catelyn was a way to differ/avoid giving the throne to Edmure, as Robb considered he was unlikely to be able to deal with the situation ; or other lords / unknown cousins he could only trust less than his mother. She was acceptable in the north as the wife of a Stark, and offered a good transition before a Tully with no northern link eventually inherited the throne through her.

If Robb had died while Jeyne is pregnent the issue in the will is not naming an heir, it is naming a regent, in which case his mother would be a very logical choice. Getting the succession backwards is kind of awkward and the way you are describing it just postpones the problem. Besides the title belongs to house Stark, not house Tully. Edmure might be the least complicated option as long as his sister and uncle did the actual ruling.

I always got the impression that Robb meant to marry Cat to Jason Mallister.

There truth is all options are problematic. Too bad they don't know Bran, Rickon and Arya are alive and in the latter's case unmarried.

[Barty]

Nice theory but I think the asoiaf app has already confirmed that Robb legitimized Jon and made him his heir.

[Lord Freypie]

Are the app makers supposed to know this kind of things ?

[jarl the climber]

If Cat was alive she would have a legal basis for being the regent if Bran, Rickon or any of the other kids somehow regained Winterfell. He also did not know if his wife was pregnant so its not clear what he would have stipulated if she was carrying his heir. The whole business with Ser Jaimie makes me think that it would be unlikely he would have named Cat to be regent. Jeynes 16 years old, her family is weak and not based in the North, maybe he stipulated that Jon would have to marry Jeyne but who knows. Still Cat would have a claim to the regency and she has a powerful family behind her(the Tullys) and she is well known in the North(most recently for freeing Jaimie and letting the Imp get through her fingers). Right now the Tullys seem like they might be on the way out and she would not exactly inspire confidence in the North, the part with her being dead really seems to be the clincher, however.

There is an interesting theory that someone came up with that states Robb left his will in Oldstones, that Lady Stoneheart secured it when she was their hanging the Freys at the end of ASOS and that she delivered it to the crannogmen in AFFC. The Freys mentioned to Jaimie that they tracked some of these bandits from Oldstones up to the Neck. At the same time Howland Reed would have been sending guides if Mormont and/or Glover got through to them.

[The Mother of The Others]

Whoa, it's sitting right there in front of us like a pornstar sized body part: Catelyn is our only ambulatory dead person, so she's going to get the job of being the living world's ambassador to the Dead Nation. She'll be our go-between, the one who's already dead enough that the Others won't feel compelled to kill her any further. ...........Ehhhhh, no. Coldhands is like Cat, and he didn't get any love from the Others. Damn it, for a second I was picturing a very sexual conclusion where she'd visit the supreme court of the Cold Ones and argue.... on our behalf? No, at this point she basically agrees with the Others that humanity should be declared a loss and put down. So this idea didn't really get off the ground hardly at all before it came crashing back down to earth and broke its tail section off.

Frump!

[unSonofStannis]

No I don't think that's going to happen she'll never see the North again I figure, I think she wants to go down fighting the Freys. Plus I think she would have no desire to rule the North all she feels now is a need for revenge.

[unSonofStannis]

But I do think theres a possibility of a Queen in the North in the end, Queen Dustin is her Name, slayer of the Flayed Man and Merman, Shield against the Frost, Mistress of Winter, Mother and Protector of the Old Way and Queen of the First Men.

[IRON BANK]

I could by this theory only if the argument between Cat and Rob about Jon did not happen in text, The whole reason for said argument is to legitimize Jon considering, Bran, Rickon, and Arya are assumed dead and Sansa is married to a lannister. Jon is the only viable blood relation solution. The whole argument betwween Rob and Cat over Jon sets the precedent in the readers mind that this is necessary. for two reasons. One when the will is revealed Jon takes his place at winter fell at the right KITN. When the IT needs a king he takes that and with the reveal of either Rickon or Bran he names them the new Lord of winterfell everything in place in a nice little package for the end of the story.

[Lord Freypie]

I wasn't saying she is going to return to the north and try to convince ex-Robb vassals to see an undead as their queen.

I'm saying she may have been named in Robb's will as the only chapter where Robb's will is mentionned has several hints in that direction, and I don't see the point of making Robb not mention his heir in his speech if it was to make the obvious choice (nor why make Cat feel she has just been trapped after he announce his unsurprising will and not after he announce she will be sent to Seaguard ; nor why have this chapter structure).

Insisting on him in the first dialog only may be a well done red herring, as well done as many others (ie : making the reader believe Cersei poisoned Jon Arryn and tried to get Bran murdered only to reveal it was someone else several books later when it was taken as a fact).

By the way importance of Robb's will no matter who was named, may itself be one (using reader hopes and their attachement to Jon to make them believe the KoN will be reborn with Jon as king at some point, when the real Jon plot and northern lords politics may go in different directions).

Consequences if my theory is right are :

- Jon isn't legitimized and won't be contacted by the Northern Conspiracy to become king of the north (instead they'll probably search the real Eddard childs, .. exactly what they do) ;

- he may still become king/pretender but when his real parents are revealed and it would be to the IT

- northern lords are more likely to abandon the idea of an independant kingdom of the north and support Stannis if they can't find the Starks childs as both Robb and his named heir are considered dead ;

- Robb naming a non Stark heir of Winterfell when there always must be a Stark at Winterfell had one more mystical reason to have been punished

.- UnCat become an incarnation of the revenge of the north even more than she actually is ; and her being dragged out of the river by wolves take even more sense

- UnCat has the authority/task to name the (living) real heir of the north, she isn't wandering with the crown for nothing ; whichever Stark child bought to her is likely to be told the story and crowned in front of the bwb

- she may even be the heir named in Robb's will and still design Jon as a way to respect the unwritten wish of her son, with potential to make this decision more emotionnal than having Jon chosen by a parchment

- people knowing the will, considering Cat dead, believing all Stark childs dead, and knowing she was killed after Robb, may consider that the heir of the north is now her brother Edmure or uncle Brynden