Olenna's Targaryen Prince: Duncan the Small?

[brashcandy]

I have nothing to oppose this theory, other that it would destroy Olenna's character, in my view. I think that, if she was telling the truth, Olenna's speach to Sansa was a great comment on ambition and power. If she 's just bitter for being rejected and not becomming queen, she's not much different than Cersei, or Arianne (who obviously thinks that becomming queen consort is "better" than ruling princess of Dorne). I think Olenna is there to emphasise the difference, and that's the only reason I don't like this theory.

Hmmm, I had the opposite view as I think it actually enriches her character and makes her more interesting. Before, it all lines up squarely with her portrayal as a shrewd old harridan, looking out for her family's best interests and taking no shit from anyone - cool, but a little clichéd and unrealistic. This new possibility, however, suggests how and why she may have turned into the old harridan, and I find it more empowering for her character too, as she would have been responsible for attempting to rewrite her history and investing her nickname with new meaning. I also think the relevance to Sansa's narrative is important, as it aligns her with other women like Lysa Arryn and Cersei Lannister, who have at one point or another faced rejection, and seen themselves in Sansa's place.

[Lissa Nymeros Martell]

This makes so much sense.

[Lord Varys]

Everything Olenna says indicates that she spurned her Targaryen suitor, not the other way around. This means that Lady Olenna/House Redwyne broke the marriage contract. If Prince Duncan was Olenna's betrothed she would have had no reason to spurn him. He was the Prince of Dragonstone!

[Roadside Rose]

When Olenna talks to Sansa, she compares Aerion Brightflame to Joffrey. It gave me the feeling Aerion was the one she intended to marry.

I like your theory of Duncan the Small spurning Olenna. But we cannot be sure it was Duncan who spurned Olenna, even Jaehaerys refused an arranged marriage, and married someone he loved. There are a lot of Targ candidates.

[mrunderhill]

When Olenna talks to Sansa, she compares Aerion Brightflame to Joffrey. It gave me the feeling Aerion was the one she intended to marry.

I like your theory of Duncan the Small spurning Olenna. But we cannot be sure it was Duncan who spurned Olenna, even Jaehaerys refused an arranged marriage, and married someone he loved. There are a lot of Targ candidates.

Martin has shot down this theory. Olenna was too young for Aerion and probably never even met him. I don't think there were a lot of Targaryen candidates at the time Olenna was eligible to wed. There would be Aerion's son possibly, any descendant of Daeron through his daughter and then Egg's boys.

[Roadside Rose]

SSM dated Dec 99

Q.Who was the Queen of Thorns betrothed to? Her age is kind of indeterminate, but if she's 85, I figure it could be Aerion Targaryen himself. Her comment about him is what makes me think that. On the other hand, if she's younger, I suppose it was one of Egg's sons.

GRRM:She's not that old. Remember, she's Mace Tyrell's mother, not his grandmother. She's in her sixties, I'd say. Did I say she was older in the manuscript? If so, I need to go back and fix that. As to her betrothal... that's a story yet to be told.

[WinterWarrior]

Great theory AM, I like it. I wonder what the Q of T betrothal story will be if GRRM ever gets around to writing it. I would not be surprised if it is aligned with your theory.....I always like your posts - well thought out and makes sense.

[Lord Damian]

GRRM stated that of ADWD, Lady Oleana is approx 67 years old. One of Aegon V boys is most likely. Prince Duncan the small may have "spurned" her for Jenny of Oldstones, therefore giving up the crown and that may have pissed her off because she would not be queen, therefore she may have sabatoged Summerhall. That is what I am reading into what other posters like Apple Martini are hinting at. Oleana is too proud to say that she was "rejected" so she puts forth that she "rejected" a Targ. It fits, especially how she "offed" Joff.

[Lord Varys]

Egg's children - especially Duncan, Jaehaerys, and Rhaelle - may in fact be older than Aerion's son. Aemon said Egg had already a family when he ascended to the Iron Throne whereas Aerion's son still was an infant upon Maekar's death.

Egg's daughter Rhaelle apparently used to call Aemon 'Uncle Maester'. This means that they had a relationship of sorts. Which indicates that Aemon spend time with Egg and his children before he joined the Night's Watch when Egg ascended the Iron Throne. I very much doubt Aemon visited KL often after he had joined the NW. Although it is not impossible that Egg called him to court once in a while.

[Lord Damian]

Egg's children - especially Duncan, Jaehaerys, and Rhaelle - may in fact be older than Aerion's son. Aemon said Egg had already a family when he ascended to the Iron Throne whereas Aerion's son still was an infant upon Maekar's death.

Egg's daughter Rhaelle apparently used to call Aemon 'Uncle Maester'. This means that they had a relationship of sorts. Which indicates that Aemon spend time with Egg and his children before he joined the Night's Watch when Egg ascended the Iron Throne. I very much doubt Aemon visited KL often after he had joined the NW. Although it is not impossible that Egg called him to court once in a while.

Meakar had sent Aemon to the Citidel when Egg was squiring for Dunk. Aemon was already a Maester for many years when he was offered the throne upon Meakar's death. The great council passed over Aerion Brightflame's toddler child (unjustly and setting a dangerous precident) for Aemon but he refused and decided to take the black in order to "make a statement" by supporting Egg. Then, he and Bloodraven (who was imprisoned for many years in the Black cells) and a large retinue went to the wall, escorted by Dunk, who probably saw Young/Old Nan for the last time.

[Lord Varys]

I know all that, and we also know that all of Maekar's sons were summoned to and lived at court when their father ascended the Iron Throne. But my point is that Egg's children likely are elder than Aerion's son who seems to be the best candidate for Olenna's betrothed in my opinion.

Confirmation for the age of Egg's children is the fact that Princess Rhaelle did know her uncle well enough to form a relationship. She may even have been Egg's firstborn child. But Egg already had a family of his own when he became Aegon V. Which could indicate that he had more than one child at this time.

[Lissa Nymeros Martell]

Aegon V still has one son we know nothing about. So, it may not even be Duncan the Small. I almost think it's not Duncan but the story would be similar either way since she didn't marry either. I reckon this story will be told during the Dunk and Egg tales.

[Lord Varys]

Egg's as of yet unknown son is not his eldest son, that much is sure I think. Egg most certainly would not have named his second son Duncan. That's definitely the name he would have chosen for his first male child. Especially since GRRM already confirmed that Duncan was Egg's heir, at least for a time. He would have been the prince who let go of his claim to the Iron Throne when he married Jenny, making Jaehaerys the Prince of Dragonstone.

In the appendix of AGoT Jaehaerys II is supposed to be Egg's second son. This could be changed, I think, if GRRM feels the need to make Jaehaerys the third son. But then the mystery prince must either abdicate as well, or die at Summerhall with Egg and Prince Duncan, or some time before that.

But the fact that Egg named Jaehaerys 'Jaehaerys' in honor of Jaehaerys I, the best Targaryen king, strongly indicates that he was indeed his second son. His first son was named Duncan in honor of Dunk, the second Jaehaerys to honor the Conciliator.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Everything Olenna says indicates that she spurned her Targaryen suitor, not the other way around. This means that Lady Olenna/House Redwyne broke the marriage contract. If Prince Duncan was Olenna's betrothed she would have had no reason to spurn him. He was the Prince of Dragonstone!

Sorry, I'm just seeing this now. And I have to ask, sincerely, if you even bothered to read the OP and what it was actually saying.

The premise is that Olenna is lying -- not telling the truth, massaging facts -- and that she was spurned, not the other way around. No shit Olenna would have no reason to spurn the prince of Dragonstone. But she wouldn't have been the one doing the spurning, according to the theory. And no shit everything Olenna says indicates that she did the spurning. Says being the operative word.

[Bael's Bastard]

Good chance it was one of Aegon's sons, but I don't think it was Duncan, and I don't think it was connected with Summerhall. I hope we find out at some point.

[Lord Varys]

Apple Martini,

reread your original post, and your theory does make some sense. But I don't see how offending the Redwynes would have caused any real problems for Aegon V. Surely, a broken marriage contract would have been a scandal, but Prince Duncan's betrothal would have happened during the first half of the reign of Aegon the Unlikely, in the 230s or early 240s, not in the 250s (when the War of the Ninepenny Kings happened). We do know that Egg already had a family when he ascended to the Iron Throne, so Duncan would have been already born when Maekar died. In fact, the whole 'Prince of Dragonflies' thing indicates to me that Dunk took Prince Duncan with him on a tour as a hedge knight's squire just as with Egg before.

Prince Duncan may have fallen in love with that lifestyle more than Egg. Considering that the heir to the throne has to learn the business of ruling, and considering that Egg most likely would have wanted Dunk close by when he started to rule as Aegon V, my guess is that the two Duncans could only hit the road during the reign of Maekar - when neither Egg nor his sons were like to inherit the Iron Throne.

But is entirely likely that the spurning of Olenna Redwyne could have caused problems during another, earlier Blackfyre rebellion. The War of the Ninepenny Kings did not ever actually Westeros itself. And come to think of it, Olenna Redwyne would certainly consider a prince who spurns her very mad indeed...

On the other hand, I doubt that Olenna would have brought up the topic of Prince Duncan if he really did spurn her. Margaery and the other Tyrell women would have known the truth, and if this whole thing was actually a humiliation for I very doubt she would want to talk about it at all.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

It represents the youngest she could be at the time of Mace's birth, which is why I said, "points to the fact that she was at least 21" I don't think it's likely that she's a great deal older than that, as she would not have been very good marriage bait if she married well into her 20s. Making her older than that requires an explanation as to why it took so long for her to marry or why it took her so long to have children. The pattern for Westerosi noblewomen is to marry young and to begin having children almost immediately after their marriage. That's why I suggest that a birth date at the upper bound of the pre-235 era is most plausible for Olenna Tyrell.

We know from Cersei that Mace "no more" than 10 years older than she is, yielding a birth year of around 256 for him, possibly later.

Any marriage after the age of about 20 is going to be later than the norm, as Westerosi most highborn women are wed by that age. It is extraordinarily unusual that Arianne Martell remains unmarried at age 23. Even if we could push Olenna Tyrell's birth year back to 230 or 231, that would only put her in line only with the absolute latest possible dates for Duncan's birth. This is why I think it is most likely that if Olenna was a possible match for any of Aegon V's sons, the youngest is the most likely.

In short it is just barely mathematically possible that Duncan could have been a match, but it is much more probable that he was simply too old by the time Olenna was coming of age for marriage negotiations.

Members of the Targaryen family have a pattern of marrying young and experiencing high fertility in their first few years of marriage, making it likely that Aegon would've followed this pattern. A birthdate between 220 and 224 seems most likely for Duncan based on this pattern and on other information we have.

Isn't it possible that Olenna was supposed to marry Prince Jaehaerys? Or that they were negotiating a betrothal? And that when Duncan announced he wanted to marry Jenny and give up his throne, the whole plan fell through, since now Jaehaerys would be the next king, and kings should have queens from the strongest houses.

Jaehaerys also married for love, in fact, all three sons of Aegon did (which is a bit discriminating against Rhaelle, who Barristan doesn't mention as having married for love. Poor girl was perhaps the only one in her family to marry for political reasons or so). So Jaehaerys could have spurned Olenna as well, right?

Aegon was born around 199 AC, making him 34 years old in 233 AC, when Maekar dies. Aegon first travelled with Ser Duncan the Tall, and then married for love. This suggests that he married rather late in life, so probably his early twenties.

Barristan was born in 237 AC, making him 10 in 247 AC, when he is defeated by Prince Duncan, who had been knighted by then. This means that Prince Duncan was at least 17 at that time, placing his birth no later than 230 AC. So we know that at least 1 of Egg's children was born before he came into his throne.

Then there is Jaehaerys himself to consider. Jaehaerys' only son Aerys was born in 243 AC. His daughter Rhaella, who had been married to Aerys no later than 258 AC, had been in a short romantic affair with a knight. To actually be in love, you usually are older than 15 (Aerys' age in 258 AC), so Rhaella was presumably one or two years older than Aerys, placing her birth year in or around 241 AC, and placing Jaehaerys' marriage in 240 AC.

Jaehaerys had to have been married in 240 AC if this is the case. He also married for love, so probably not around the age of 14, but more around the age of 18 or 19 (at least a few years later than usually happened in that family). If he had been aroun 18 in 240 AC, he was born in 222 AC, when Egg was 23 years old. It seems to be that in Westeros, the children usually don't differ that much in age, so Prince Duncan could have been born in 220/221 AC, and the unknown third brother one or two years after 222 AC, with Rhaelle following after that.

Olenna not being from one of the eight great houses, probably means she wouldn't have been betrothed to the heir to the throne, but rather his younger brother, which fell through when that younger brother became the heir. It's possible that after that, they tried to betroth her to the third brother, but Olenna, not wanting to be slighted once more, refused and did everything she could to stop it from happening. Because if it did happen, she would have to live in the castle where her former betrothed would live with his new Queen. And that's just an aweful slight to bear.

But Aerion is Aegon older brother and would have been quite a bit older than Olenna. Also he died before Aegon took the throne in 233, when Olenna was either a small child or not even born. That timeline doesn't fit as well as Duncan the Small.

Aerion had an infant son when he died in 232 AC. Since the boy was briefly considered for the throne, I'm assuming he was trueborn, and Aerion was thus married.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Not Aerion, but Aerion's unnamed son has always been my prime candidate. However, with an addition of a third son of Aegon into the equation I have to say it is more possible that the youngest son especially could have been the Targaryen in question. I think Prince of Dragonflies unlikely still, but admit the idea of Olenna lying about her being able to put an end to the marriage opens up a different and possible take on the subject. Not a chance she actually refused to marry one of Aegon's sons.

Ooh... Maybe the QOT poisoned him and that's what happened to Aerion's legitimate son...

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Since I recently found more sources on the parties involved, and I just explained this in a Small Questions thread, I'll just quote myself here. In short, the conclusion is that Aerion cannot have been Olenna's Targaryen Prince, since she was born either 2 years before he died, or even after his dead. Duncan the Small seems the most likely, but Jaehaerys or their younger brother can of course not be ruled out entirely.

[in answer to the question who Olenna's Targaryen Prince could have been]

About Olenna's age we know 2 things: (1) She's in her sixties, and (2) she's older than Hoster Tully.

Catelyn's birth was estimated to have been in 264 AC. Minisa gave birth twice before, so Hoster would have been at marrying age in 261 AC (with the first child born in 262 AC). Another clue is that Brynden Blackfish (who is 5 years younger than Hoster) was allowed to fight in the War of the Ninepenny Kings and distinguished himself in the fighting. He would have been at least 15 years old in that year (around 258 AC, since the War of the Ninepenny Kings took place during the last part of the reign of Aegon V), making Hoster in that year at least 20 years old. That would align with his first child being born in 262 AC.

Hoster can't have been much older at that point, as the man who was most likely his grandfather was born in 202 AC (the young Lord Tully from the Sworn Sword and the Mystery Knight).

Olenna Redwyne is in her 60ies, and she's older than Hoster. Being in your 60ies in 299 AC places your birth between 230 AC and 238 AC. Hoster, as concluded above, would have been 20 in 258 AC, placing his birth in 238 AC. Olenna would be older than Hoster, so born in 237 AC or before.

The marriage candidates amongst the known Targaryen Princes in this case would have been the three sons of Aegon V: Duncan (born in 222 AC or before, Jaehaerys, born in 223 AC, and the 3rd son, born in 224 AC or after). It is not unknown for the man to be a few years older than the woman, but it does make sense that Olenna would have been born closer to the 230 AC than to the 237 AC (which is her absolute latest possible year of birth).

The popular theory is that Olenna was supposed to marry Duncan (giving Aegon V more control over the Redwyne fleet), but that he married Jeyne of Oldstones (who does not seem to have been a noblewoman). Olenna would have received the mocking nickname Queen of Thornes after her marrying Luthor Tyrell (whose sigil was a rose), as she could have actually been a queen. Also, Olenna is a proud woman. Should this theory be correct, she could easily be telling Sansa that she was the one who had put a stop to the marriage, while in reality, it had been out of her control.

[in answer to the question could it have been Aerion who Olenna was supposed to marry?]

No, Olenna was born between 230 AC and 237 AC (though most likely closer to 230 AC, as reasoned above). Aerion died in 232 AC.

Being at least 8 years older than Olenna (in Duncans case) would make sense. Marrying for love suggests Duncan married at a later age than normal, and he would have been at least 8 years older than Olenna, who would have reached the right age to get married around 15/16, making Duncan no younger than 21/22, perhaps even a little older. And around such an age, Duncan could have fallen in love, married Jeyne, leaving Olenna behind, rejected.

[History of Westeros]

Rhaenys I think you might be the reigning board expert on dates/ages. Sometimes knowing a semi-precise date rather than a range of +/- a few years makes an enormous difference while theorizing or playing ASOIAF detective.