I think GRRM is trying something crazy...

[Mad Monkey]

I think when Daenerys finally gets to Westeros at the head of her army, she'll look around at the smoking, squalid ruin of the Seven Kingdoms and think, "I went through all that for this? What a dump!"

Yup - makes about as much sense as having Sandor survive on the quiet isle just so he can live out the rest of his days in peace i,e, it makes no sense whatsoever

How does that not make sense? The old Angry Man finds inner peace as a result of a religious experience is a pretty standard trope. It's probably on TV Tropes. His story doesn't necessarily end there but it's not like it's something that came out of nowhere.

[Addam of Hull]

I don't get the certainty with which people believe that Jon has somehow survived what appears to be a fairly fatal stabbing at the beginning of what looks to be an all out battle inside Castle Black. I'm not saying he is 100% irrevocably dead. I'm saying there is a ton of evidence to support the idea that he is dead. R+L=J may or may not be true. It doesn't mean Jon is automatically important to the end game. People complain that his arc isn't finished or that it would have been pointless if you stop here, I disagree.

The arc is very much a Julius Caesar arc:

• Successful military commander with experience in "barbaric" areas outside the empire takes over
  
• Brings "barbaric" people into the empire; expands the power of his position (emperor/Stannis v. Ramsay politics)
  
• Gets killed by established members of the empire who are fighting to keep the old ways
  

That's a complete arc. In terms of the narrative, Jon's purpose (in my view) is to try to bring the Wildlings and the Night's Watch together to fight the Others. He's done as much as he can reasonably do in that regard. I'm not sure why people think that Jon has a bigger destiny than that.

Even if we assume that Jon survives, he has no friends left at Castle Black. Selyse hates him. His old brothers hate him (they just finished stabbing him, don't forget). Mance has talked about how difficult it is to get Wildlings to follow anyone. Let alone the guy who a) betrayed them as a spy and b ) killed hundreds of their friends and family during the attacks on Castle Black. Melisandre is trying to figure out whether her Lord of Light, Stannis, is actually dead or not and while she has some affection for Jon, she did repeatedly warn him that he was in danger and he repeatedly ignored her. She's seen his death in the flames. If he didn't take her advice well, I think in Mel's worldview, Rhilor must want him dead. Who exactly is going to a) save him b ) protect him from the people who haven't stopped wanting him dead (the stabbing wasn't that cathartic, folks) and c) help him claim the Iron Throne or whatever destiny the forums seem to think that R+L=J implies? Shireen? Patchface? I get the "man of destiny" idea. I don't get how he gets out of his current predicament. There's no Drogon flying around that can save him. No Nymeria to pull him out of the river.

Yes, Ghost is alive (for now, although we saw how long Grey Wind lasted by himself) and Jon could survive as a wolf but if he was warging into Ghost who is sitting in his (presumably) warm(ish) chambers, why on earth would GRRM say that the last thing he feels is cold? That's not how he describes Jon's warging. We also know from Bran's flying dream that Bran sees Jon on a bed of ice, the warmth leaving his body. We know that Bran's dream is accurate. There may be a slight curve (like the Giant at Winterfell) but we are going to see Jon on a bed of ice with the last of the warmth leaving his body. Why not now?

As far as its placement within ADWD, remember that a whole bunch of Dance was excised and put into TWOW. If we take GRRM's word on it and it's about 20% of a book that's been taken out, his death would not have originally been a cliff hanger and could have played out in a much more "normal" fashion. At any rate, ADWD is by far the most cliffhanger-y of the books. There are cool reveals at the end of other books (Dragons, Lady Stoneheart) but the questions those raise are fairly open ended in terms of the plot moving forward. The immediate future is not on a knife's edge (pun fully intended). ADWD on the other hand, has a pending battle in Slaver's Bay. A pending battle at Storm's End. Jon's stabbing. Two pending trials at King's Landing and a bunch of other stuff I'm probably forgetting right now. He seems to have moved to a more suspenseful finish for this book. I personally don't mind this at all because it allows these forums to debate these things while he gets around to writing the 6th book. :)

It is theoretically possible that Qyburn could revive Kevan Lannister, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm not holding my breath for Jon Snow either.

There isn't that much evidence to support your claim, though. Stabbings aren't actually that fatal. They have a low mortality rate. Caesar was stabbed upwards of 20 times, but only one blow was fatal. Granted, only one needed to be, but the point it still relevant. Nothing about Jon's last chapter really screams death. There's no certainty there. If GRRM wanted him dead, we'd know. Even though he had to restructure ADWD, if Jon was dead dead, he would have found the time and room to squeeze in a Melisandre chapter confirming that... but he didn't. You'll notice he did add in a Barristan chapter, though, which is where Quentyn's death is confirmed.

It's true that Jon's final moments feel like a Julius Caesar moment, but Jon's character arc is much bigger and broader than that. Yes, he's our primary Wall POV, but he's also a character that's spent all four books he's been in caught in the struggle with his sense of identity. He's spent the books wrestling with his oaths. His character arc and evolution as a character are about more than getting the Wall to fall or bringing the Wildlings over. Who are Jon's parents is one of the big questions GRRM has avoided answering and there's a reason for that. He's not going to reveal the answer after Jon is dead and it has no effect on that story. That's bad writing and GRRM isn't a bad writer. He's said himself that Jon is going to finding out who his mother was, so we know he needs to survive to get to that point.

And while you suggest the situation is dire for him, it's not actually all that bad. So far, only three sworn brothers have attacked. We have no idea about the loyalties of the others, but nothing in ADWD suggests that most of the Watch dislikes or disagrees with Jon and his policies. Even if they did, the Wildlings certainly like Jon and they outnumber the Watch at this point. And the Norrey and the Flint are there and they presumably have some interest in saving Jon since their men are marching hundreds of miles across frozen terrain to save the Ned's little girl.

[C0bR]

I think when Daenerys finally gets to Westeros at the head of her army, she'll look around at the smoking, squalid ruin she made of the Seven Kingdoms and think, "I went through all that for this? What a dump!"

fixed :D

[Old-Growth]

Not Dead Just Broken: A couple of days after Dance came out, our author replied to an interviewer who had asked about Jon's death: "Oh, you think he's dead, do you?". The interviewer changed the subject IIRC, probably having realized that he was not going to get any more than that rhetorical question. In any event, I think that we may reasonably infer that whether Jon is actually dead is still an open matter, and that we may not find out until we get TWoW.

[Mad Monkey]

fixed :D

Oh come on, there's no way you can blame her for the War of the Five Kings. She spent the whole thing in Essos! ;)

[The Greenhand]

Dead - no.

Throne - no.

Dead Yes

Throne Yes

[GGK1986]

I think perhaps Jon might subvert the game of thrones. Assuming R+L=J (everybody thinks this right?) and that he is actually their trueborn son and the rightful heir, I predict that he will not take the throne. He could actively reject it. Given that everybody else is trying to get power it would be an interesting thematic change.

Rhaegar was wed to Elia, not Lyanna. So Jon would be a bastard even if R+L=J were true.

[A Man Has Said]

I can't respond to a thread that deals with the dozens of cliffhangers that GRRM left at the end of "A Feast for Crows" and "A Dance with Dragons" with anything other than frustration.

I want to know what happens to Sam at the Citadel, and Alleras, and Pate/the Alchemist/Jaqen? ..and will Marwyn every hook up with Dany?

Will ANYONE ever hook up with Dany, or is she forever lost in the Dothraki Sea? Is she dying of the pale mare?

If she's alive, will she ever leave Essos and make her bid for the Iron Throne?

What is going to be the outcome of the Battle of Mereen? That's a big cliff-hanger there.

What about Aegon and JonCon? Will they meet up with Arianne? Will they put serious pressure on the Lannisters and Tyrells over the IT?

What about Stannis, Theon, and Asha? And the Battle for Winterfell?

And of course the question of whether Jon is dead is kind of important.

If it was 2 years between novels, as it was for the first three books, I personally wouldn't think these cliffhangers would be justified.

Each book should stand on it's own and have some sense of resolution, an ending.

J.K. Rowlings wrote a seven-part series of books too, but only the 6th book had any serious questions left hanging. (the identity of RAB mostly)

But it was 5 years before "A Feast for Crows" was completed and 6 for "A Dance with Dragons."

That's a VERY long time to be kept in suspense over so many issues that should have been resolved at the end of ADwD.

Cliffhangers are OK if it's a TV series where you may have to wait from the end of one season in April or May until the beginning of the next the following September.

But 6 YEARS? That's just nuts.

I think the craziest thing that GRRM has done is to act like ASoIaF is a side project that he can put on the shelf for interminable periods of time.

[FuriousGeorge]

I think when Daenerys finally gets to Westeros at the head of her army, she'll look around at the smoking, squalid ruin of the Seven Kingdoms and think, "I went through all that for this? What a dump!"

How does that not make sense? The old Angry Man finds inner peace as a result of a religious experience is a pretty standard trope. It's probably on TV Tropes. His story doesn't necessarily end there but it's not like it's something that came out of nowhere.

Hahaha yes that may well be a trope I wouldn't know but I know that 'author leaves subtle clues that most non-obsessed or non-forum going readers will miss about old Angry man still being alive only for that character to never appear in the story again meaning we never really found out if he achieved peace or not or even if he is actually still alive' is definitely NOT a trope

[Broken Fox]

I think a lot of people are quick to put down a theory or an idea because it's too "conventional" or "cliche", as if Martin is above that sort of thing. But not everything has to turn out as a huge twist/mindfuck. There are already a lot of classic themes ingrained in ASOIAF, no reason to believe more won't follow. I just see them being played out in an unconventional way.

[Clariana]

I can't respond to a thread that deals with the dozens of cliffhangers that GRRM left at the end of "A Feast for Crows" and "A Dance with Dragons" with anything other than frustration.

I want to know what happens to Sam at the Citadel, and Alleras, and Pate/the Alchemist/Jaqen? ..and will Marwyn every hook up with Dany?

Will ANYONE ever hook up with Dany, or is she forever lost in the Dothraki Sea? Is she dying of the pale mare?

If she's alive, will she ever leave Essos and make her bid for the Iron Throne?

What is going to be the outcome of the Battle of Mereen? That's a big cliff-hanger there.

What about Aegon and JonCon? Will they meet up with Arianne? Will they put serious pressure on the Lannisters and Tyrells over the IT?

What about Stannis, Theon, and Asha? And the Battle for Winterfell?

And of course the question of whether Jon is dead is kind of important.

If it was 2 years between novels, as it was for the first three books, I personally wouldn't think these cliffhangers would be justified.

Each book should stand on it's own and have some sense of resolution, an ending.

J.K. Rowlings wrote a seven-part series of books too, but only the 6th book had any serious questions left hanging. (the identity of RAB mostly)

But it was 5 years before "A Feast for Crows" was completed and 6 for "A Dance with Dragons."

That's a VERY long time to be kept in suspense over so many issues that should have been resolved at the end of ADwD.

Cliffhangers are OK if it's a TV series where you may have to wait from the end of one season in April or May until the beginning of the next the following September.

But 6 YEARS? That's just nuts.

I think the craziest thing that GRRM has done is to act like ASoIaF is a side project that he can put on the shelf for interminable periods of time.

You left out Jaime and Brienne and Lady SH.

[Fenrax1]

There isn't that much evidence to support your claim, though. Stabbings aren't actually that fatal. They have a low mortality rate. Caesar was stabbed upwards of 20 times, but only one blow was fatal. Granted, only one needed to be, but the point it still relevant. Nothing about Jon's last chapter really screams death. There's no certainty there. If GRRM wanted him dead, we'd know. Even though he had to restructure ADWD, if Jon was dead dead, he would have found the time and room to squeeze in a Melisandre chapter confirming that... but he didn't. You'll notice he did add in a Barristan chapter, though, which is where Quentyn's death is confirmed.

It's true that Jon's final moments feel like a Julius Caesar moment, but Jon's character arc is much bigger and broader than that. Yes, he's our primary Wall POV, but he's also a character that's spent all four books he's been in caught in the struggle with his sense of identity. He's spent the books wrestling with his oaths. His character arc and evolution as a character are about more than getting the Wall to fall or bringing the Wildlings over. Who are Jon's parents is one of the big questions GRRM has avoided answering and there's a reason for that. He's not going to reveal the answer after Jon is dead and it has no effect on that story. That's bad writing and GRRM isn't a bad writer. He's said himself that Jon is going to finding out who his mother was, so we know he needs to survive to get to that point.

And while you suggest the situation is dire for him, it's not actually all that bad. So far, only three sworn brothers have attacked. We have no idea about the loyalties of the others, but nothing in ADWD suggests that most of the Watch dislikes or disagrees with Jon and his policies. Even if they did, the Wildlings certainly like Jon and they outnumber the Watch at this point. And the Norrey and the Flint are there and they presumably have some interest in saving Jon since their men are marching hundreds of miles across frozen terrain to save the Ned's little girl.

Stabbings lethal or not is not a big issue. Even if he was killed, he has Melisandre right next door to resurrect him.

[David Selig]

Martin is not trying to constantly subvert expectations and tropes, far from it. A lot of the plotlines are largely predictable and the tropes aren't subverted much or at all. That especially applies to some characters like Sam and Jon.

[FuriousGeorge]

Martin is not trying to constantly subvert expectations and tropes, far from it. A lot of the plotlines are largely predictable and the tropes aren't subverted much or at all. That especially applies to some characters like Sam and Jon.

Alright then put your money where your mouth is, predict the plot of the next book and hopefully in two years we will have a good measure of how predictable GRRM is. It is easy to say you knew what was going to happen once you have read the books.

[Not Dead Just Broken]

Not Dead Just Broken: A couple of days after Dance came out, our author replied to an interviewer who had asked about Jon's death: "Oh, you think he's dead, do you?". The interviewer changed the subject IIRC, probably having realized that he was not going to get any more than that rhetorical question. In any event, I think that we may reasonably infer that whether Jon is actually dead is still an open matter, and that we may not find out until we get TWoW.

I'm all for his death being an open question. What bothers me is the certainty people have that he's alive. I think a lot of people down play what a mess he's made for himself. They ignore the text and cling to a few cryptic quotes from GRRM.

The two rangings Jon proposes before he dies are likely suicide missions. Hardhome (apart from possibly being cursed) has already claimed what few naval resources he has and the Others could be preparing to attack any day. Jon wants to send his best men out to meet their deaths. Ramsay wrote the letter hoping that Jon Snow would attack. Jon's answer is to rush headlong into the trap.

The enmity of the Queen's Men and the older members of the NW towards Jon's wildling policies should not be downplayed either. The Queen's Men are unlikley to take the death of one of their own at the hands of a giant lying down. And yes, there may be a couple of people who will want to kill Jon's attackers. There's going to be more blood in the snow.

[David Selig]

Alright then put your money where your mouth is, predict the plot of the next book and hopefully in two years we will have a good measure of how predictable GRRM is. It is easy to say you knew what was going to happen once you have read the books.

What's the point, nobody will remember this thread in three years. And it's not like there aren't thousands of other "My predictions for TWOW" type posts here and elsewhere on the net.

What I am saying is that Martin, even though he loves his cliffhangers way too much, isn't trying to surprise us all the time, far from it. Often he goes the conventional way. Who didn't predict that Jon will become LC at some point or that some will show bravery at a crucial moment, for example? Or that when Jon released Ygritte instead of killing her, he'll meet her again and that decision would be important?

[Kittykatknits]

Because:

A. Martin's outright stated Jon will find out who his mother his.

B. When Martin actually kills a character, it's done explicitly and in a manner that settles the question decisively. It's also resolved over the course of a single book.

C. There's too much foreshadowing and build-up of Jon's character to be finished right now.

D. All of the above.

Also:

E. Martin pretty much said so in an interview when asked about Jon's death.

[butterbumps!]

Alright then put your money where your mouth is, predict the plot of the next book and hopefully in two years we will have a good measure of how predictable GRRM is. It is easy to say you knew what was going to happen once you have read the books.

What's the point, nobody will remember this thread in three years. And it's not like there aren't thousands of other "My predictions for TWOW" type posts here and elsewhere on the net.

This response is an attempt at distraction from FG's extremely salient question. Who cares if no one remembers what you said in this thread. I don't mean this to come across as an attack or personal in any way when I say that you never miss an opportunity to call Jon a predictable boring cliche as proof that Martin doesn't subvert tropes. Yet, I realize I've never seen you make a prediction on where you think Jon's character is going. Your assertions about this don't stand unless you have an idea of how Jon's character will play out, which requires you to posit predictions that conform to standard tropes.

[Andrés Garcia]

I've had similar thoughts as well. Any time people on the forum claim that something is too expected to actually happen in the story, they're often disregarding what the story has been so far and who its writer is. Given these things, what everyone regards as too expected is actually very likely to happen, because given the context, it's really quite unexpected.

More generally, people who think that George R. R. Martin is all about killing off characters and having shocking twists have probably missed the point. We've been surprised about what has happened in the story so far and we are likely to be surprised in the future, but most of the big events that have taken place follows the clues and foreshadowing previously laid out. George is not an author to always go against clues and foreshadowing, or to subvert the thematic elements that he himself has worked so hard to make part of the story.

[Nerolunar]

I wish Jon would just stay dead.

:leaving: