Strength of the Northern Houses

[Dimples]

How can you say for certain that the Norths has not been revised?

Dorne's numbers were very publicly retconned down. If the North's or the Vale's numbers were similarly changed, it would've been noticed by now.

I don't think you can rely on a quote which we know for a fact is 33% wrong as a guarantee for your numbers.

If I can't rely on GRRM's word, which hasn't been revised in regards to the Vale and the North, then you definitely can't rely on Ran's pure speculation.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Dorne's numbers were very publicly retconned down. If the North's or the Vale's numbers were similarly changed, it would've been noticed by now.

If I can't rely on GRRM's word, which hasn't been revised in regards to the Vale and the North, then you definitely can't rely on Ran's pure speculation.

That's cool, but where is the SSM where he states that the North has 45k. Genuine question, I don't doubt its existence.

Quick question - We have seen all of the seven kingdoms in action in one way or another except Dorne and the Vale. I am trying to get an understanding of the various strengths of the different realms. When Robb calls the Northern Banners he gathers a host of about 18 thousand men. How do Dorne and the Vale compare to this (I don't expect numbers, just general feeling)

I'd say these three kingdoms were roughly equal in the force they could assemble... but the north is much bigger, so it takes longer for an army to gather. And life is harsher there as well, so lords and smallfolk both need to think carefully before beating those plowshares into swords.

I also gather that Highgarden is the most populated place (Renly mentions 40,000 men), with the Lannisters being next (two combined hosts in GoT seem to be about 35,000).

The Reach is the second largest domain (after the north), and the most populous and fertile as well. The westerlands are the richest, with all the gold and silver in those hills. Those two regions also have the greatest strength at sea, after the Iron Islands.

[KINGpanther]

Is this before or after the Red Wedding?

[Free Northman Reborn]

That's cool, but where is the SSM where he states that the North has 45k. Genuine question, I don't doubt its existence.

He does not state it outright. But the SSM you quote was provided when Dorne was still legitimately at a level of 50k spears.

Tyrion's comment in Clash/Storm about "50,000 Dornish spears" was originally intended to be a legitimate quantification of their strength. It was only years later that Martin retconned Dorne's numbers to a much lower level.

So at the time when he described the strength of the regions in your quote above, he clearly had the North, the Vale and Dorne all roughly hovering around the 50k mark.

Dorne is no longer at that level, but there is no indication that the Vale or the North were similarly downgraded. In fact, there is a much more recent SSM where Martin is asked exactly that question. And he kind of evades it by saying you have to remember that the North is much larger than Dorne etc. etc.

I wish I could track that SSM down, but there does not seem to be a searchable SSM database organized by topic, and unfortuantely google isn't helping me at the moment. Maybe someone else will remember it and find it for us. I will also keep trying.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

He does not state it outright. But the SSM you quote was provided when Dorne was still legitimately at a level of 50k spears.

Tyrion's comment in Clash/Storm about "50,000 Dornish spears" was originally intended to be a legitimate quantification of their strength. It was only years later that Martin retconned Dorne's numbers to a much lower level.

So at the time when he described the strength of the regions in your quote above, he clearly had the North, the Vale and Dorne all roughly hovering around the 50k mark.

Dorne is no longer at that level, but there is no indication that the Vale or the North were similarly downgraded. In fact, there is a much more recent SSM where Martin is asked exactly that question. And he kind of evades it by saying you have to remember that the North is much larger than Dorne etc. etc.

I wish I could track that SSM down, but there does not seem to be a searchable SSM database organized by topic, and unfortuantely google isn't helping me at the moment. Maybe someone else will remember it and find it for us. I will also keep trying.

When is the 50k first mentioned? I have just checked the chapter when Tyrion brings up the Conquest of Dorne during his conversation with Oberyn and there is no mention. I also double checked the Davos chapter where he mentions the same book.

What has been revised(Interview 2002) is Dorne having the same strength as the Vale and the North. As AFFC and ADWD were published after that interview any numbers used in those books, like Quentyn promising the 50k spears to Dany, would have no bearing on the North or the Vales numbers.

[Free Northman Reborn]

When is the 50k first mentioned? I have just checked the chapter when Tyrion brings up the Conquest of Dorne during his conversation with Oberyn and there is no mention. I also double checked the Davos chapter where he mentions the same book.

What has been revised(Interview 2002) is Dorne having the same strength as the Vale and the North. As AFFC and ADWD were published after that interview any numbers used in those books, like Quentyn promising the 50k spears to Dany, would have no bearing on the North or the Vales numbers.

Clash of Kings Chapter 17.

Varys notes that Prince Doran is a sentimental man who still mourns his murdered sister Elia. Tyrion reveals he has offered Doran a council seat and his sister's killer. Varys points out that Ser Gregor Clegane (who is known to have murdered Elia) is a Lannister bannerman, but Tyrion argues that Lord Tywin will agree 50,000 Dornishmen are worth one rabid dog.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Clash of Kings Chapter 17.

Varys notes that Prince Doran is a sentimental man who still mourns his murdered sister Elia. Tyrion reveals he has offered Doran a council seat and his sister's killer. Varys points out that Ser Gregor Clegane (who is known to have murdered Elia) is a Lannister bannerman, but Tyrion argues that Lord Tywin will agree 50,000 Dornishmen are worth one rabid dog.

Thanks

[Free Northman Reborn]

Thanks

I had to go and dig up the quote, but I knew without a doubt it existed. How? Well, because we were using the 50k benchmark for Dorne's strength long before Dance with Dragons came out.

So I knew it wasn't Quentyn's quote we were basing it on.

[Game Of Thrones]

How can you say for certain that the Norths has not been revised?

That SSM is way wrong, since it's a very old one.

Dorne originally had 50,000 men but that was halved and GRRM came up with the idea that the Martells was intentionally lying so that people would fear Dorne more.

The North originally had 50,000 men but that was increased when GRRM ditched the 5-year gap. Originally the Umbers, Karstarks, etc were supposed to recover during the gap, but now they couldn't and GRRM had to make the originally very minor Dustins and Ryswells incredibly strong (and he came up with Lady Dustin who hates the Starks and sent very few soldiers south), and make the mountain clans as strong as the Karstarks despite logic and geography (and GRRM decided to make the mountain clans require a king to pay their respects to them). That means the North can summon 60,000 or so now.

The Vale has not been revised so still 50,000.

[Nihlus]

I assume when someone says the North's power is around 40-45k, they're not counting mountain clans, Reeds, or Skagos?

[Game Of Thrones]

I assume when someone says the North's power is around 40-45k, they're not counting mountain clans, Reeds, or Skagos?

The North has 60,000. So yeah.

[Arakan]

That SSM is way wrong, since it's a very old one.

Dorne originally had 50,000 men but that was halved and GRRM came up with the idea that the Martells was intentionally lying so that people would fear Dorne more.

The North originally had 50,000 men but that was increased when GRRM ditched the 5-year gap. Originally the Umbers, Karstarks, etc were supposed to recover during the gap, but now they couldn't and GRRM had to make the originally very minor Dustins and Ryswells incredibly strong (and he came up with Lady Dustin who hates the Starks and sent very few soldiers south), and make the mountain clans as strong as the Karstarks despite logic and geography (and GRRM decided to make the mountain clans require a king to pay their respects to them). That means the North can summon 60,000 or so now.

The Vale has not been revised so still 50,000.

I think all in all this is a good summary. What is quite fascinating is the amount of in detail retconning which was necessary to make up for the 5-year gap. And this is only what we can prove with relative certainty.

[Game Of Thrones]

I think all in all this is a good summary. What is quite fascinating is the amount of in detail retconning which was necessary to make up for the 5-year gap. And this is only what we can prove with relative certainty.

Removing all traces of the gap probably delayed AFFC for about a year.

[Nihlus]

Alright, so can someone help me out here about the military situation in the North right now, after the deaths of 16,000-18,000 of the best Northern soldiers during the WOT5K? Here's how I understand it, correct me if I'm wrong:

Stannis showed up with 1,500 well equipped and battle-hardened men to save the Wall and the rest of the exhausted North (most notably the mountain clans and Umbers) from a huge wildling horde with clever tactics and good timing. After defeating the Ironborn at Deepwood Motte, he won the allegiance of a lot of Northern forces in the region who hate the Boltons. He has a host of 5,000 marching for Winterfell, seemingly horribly outnumbered and outgunned, of which 3,500-4,000 are Northern soldiers. Of those, ~2,500 are mountain clansmen, and 450 are Karstarks.The rest are Glovers, Mormonts, and survivors from Rodrik's host that was routed by Ramsay. There's also a few hundred Umbers preparing to meet him. The mountain clansmen suck, Stannis' own Reach/Crownland troops are of high quality, the Umbers are "green boys", the survivors from the old host would at least be passable, and I'm not sure about the quality of the Mormonts/Glovers.

Wyman sent sizable forces with Robb and Rodrik, but kept the majority of his men back to guard White Harbor against the Iron Throne. He ended up locking down the Iron Fleet instead. He lost about two thousand men in the war (1,500 with Robb + ~500 with Rodrik), and sent another 400 hundred to Winterfell under Roose. He needs minimum 6,000-7,000 guys just to operate his ships. He says he has more heavy horse than any other Northern lord, and promises to pledge them to Stannis under a certain condition. How many troops do he and his local allies have? 6,000-7,000? More importantly, are these quality troops at all? Because the text made it sound like he's just gathering a rabble.

Roose has gathered a host of 7,500-8,000 in Winterfell. 5,500-6,000 are from the North, 2,000 are from the Riverlands. 3,500 Boltons of good quality from the army that went with Robb, 600 Bolotons from the Dreadfort garrison (also of good quality), 500 Karstarks(?), 2,000 Freys sent to help him subdue the North (mostly well equipped and trained, but some elements seem to be scraping the bottom of the barrel), 400 Umbers, 400 Manderlys, and the honor guards of a few other houses that happened to be there for the wedding (maybe 100-200 men each?). What's the situation like elsewhere? Does he have any other significant forces anywhere, or any powerful and loyal Northern allies?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

How can you say for certain that the Norths has not been revised?

Of course it was revised - he gave the North another 20,000 men to make up for dropping the five-year-gap.

Alright, so can someone help me out here about the military situation in the North right now, after the deaths of 16,000-18,000 of the best Northern soldiers during the WOT5K? Here's how I understand it, correct me if I'm wrong:

Stannis showed up with 1,500 well equipped and battle-hardened men to save the Wall and the rest of the exhausted North (most notably the mountain clans and Umbers) from a huge wildling horde with clever tactics and good timing. After defeating the Ironborn at Deepwood Motte, he won the allegiance of a lot of Northern forces in the region who hate the Boltons. He has a host of 5,000 marching for Winterfell, seemingly horribly outnumbered and outgunned, of which 3,500-4,000 are Northern soldiers. Of those, ~2,500 are mountain clansmen, and 450 are Karstarks.The rest are Glovers, Mormonts, and survivors from Rodrik's host that was routed by Ramsay. There's also a few hundred Umbers preparing to meet him. The mountain clansmen suck, Stannis' own Reach/Crownland troops are of high quality, the Umbers are "green boys", the survivors from the old host would at least be passable, and I'm not sure about the quality of the Mormonts/Glovers.

The 4,000+ Northmen in his host are almost purely Mountain Clans and Mormonts. Glovers, survivors from Rodrik, Karstarks and Umbers are on top of that. Northmen are of middling and bad quality, Southerners are the best of the best.

Wyman sent sizable forces with Robb and Rodrik, but kept the majority of his men back to guard White Harbor against the Iron Throne. He ended up locking down the Iron Fleet instead. He lost about two thousand men in the war (1,500 with Robb + ~500 with Rodrik), and sent another 400 hundred to Winterfell under Roose. He needs minimum 6,000-7,000 guys just to operate his ships. He says he has more heavy horse than any other Northern lord, and promises to pledge them to Stannis under a certain condition. How many troops do he and his local allies have? 6,000-7,000? More importantly, are these quality troops at all? Because the text made it sound like he's just gathering a rabble.

He should have about 7,000-10,000 guys in his fleet and as many more in his army. 15,000-20,000 in total. Quality is high to very high, he's been training them for two years non-stop.

Roose has gathered a host of 7,500-8,000 in Winterfell. 5,500-6,000 are from the North, 2,000 are from the Riverlands. 3,500 Boltons of good quality from the army that went with Robb, 600 Bolotons from the Dreadfort garrison (also of good quality), 500 Karstarks(?), 2,000 Freys sent to help him subdue the North (mostly well equipped and trained, but some elements seem to be scraping the bottom of the barrel), 400 Umbers, 400 Manderlys, and the honor guards of a few other houses that happened to be there for the wedding (maybe 100-200 men each?). What's the situation like elsewhere? Does he have any other significant forces anywhere, or any powerful and loyal Northern allies?

3,500 Boltons from the South, 2,000 from Ramsay, not sure how to separate between Bolton and Hornwood here, 2,000 Freys and a bunch of wedding guests, maybe another 2,000 of very dubious loyalty.

[Frey Pie]

Wyman took Iirc 300 men to WF with him

I would think overall even with the losses his men took in the south Manderly now has more armed forces then ever due to the influx of other lords men, refugees, and so forth.

[Game Of Thrones]

@BBE

To make up for the loss of the gap he made the Ryswells, the mountain clans, and Dustins far stronger. So he added 2,000 more clansmen and 3,000 Ryswell and Dustin soldiers each. So he gave the North about 10,000 more soldiers (since most Houses must have had the amount of soldiers increased slightly), so it's probably 60,000.

[Free Northman Reborn]

@BBE

To make up for the loss of the gap he made the Ryswells, the mountain clans, and Dustins far stronger. So he added 2,000 more clansmen and 3,000 Ryswell and Dustin soldiers each. So he gave the North about 10,000 more soldiers (since most Houses must have had the amount of soldiers increased slightly), so it's probably 60,000.

And here I embark on a bit of idle speculation, but I personally suspect that he introduced the Skagos plot out of the blue, as Osha travelling all the way to Skagos - including somehow taking ship with a massive direwolf in tow - just seems like an unlikely plot in the extreme.

I suspect he introduced this in order to have a rallying point for the Skagosi - being Rickon - to retcon why they didn't initially send men to the muster and why they will now rock up with a very sizeable force to contribute to the North's total strength.

That is on top of everything else that has been counted up to now.

[Arakan]

And here I embark on a bit of idle speculation, but I personally suspect that he introduced the Skagos plot out of the blue, as Osha travelling all the way to Skagos - including somehow taking ship with a massive direwolf in tow - just seems like an unlikely plot in the extreme.

I suspect he introduced this in order to have a rallying point for the Skagosi - being Rickon - to retcon why they didn't initially send men to the muster and why they will now rock up with a very sizeable force to contribute to the North's total strength.

That is on top of everything else that has been counted up to now.

A Turgon moment of awesomness is coming ;). At the end of WOW we get 10,000 badass Skagosi semi-cannibal warriors...

[John Doe]

With Rickon riding Shaggydog riding an unicorn :idea: