Strength of the Northern Houses

[Universal Sword Donor]

Oh most cetainly, not disputing that. Just being a half a days ride from Winterfell, I imagine when the Lord of Winterfell says "jump", Cerwyn's immediate response would be "how high?". Otherwise it'd be called Castle Some-Other-Northern-House.

Where as Houses like Umbar, Bolton, Karstark, Manderly etc, they need more cajoling to get the best results.

Yeah I was speaking less of their obeisance vs other lords and more of a possible oversight in the appendix.

[NorthernXY]

I've always wondered why Winter Town isn't larger, only 1/5 of the houses are occupied during the summer. Winterfell is the capital of the North, on the Kingsroad, and close to a branch of the Whiteknife so it's easier to trade with Whiteharbor. I'd expect Winterfell to field a considerably larger force than the Dreadfort or Karhold, neither having a port and especially the latter because it's farther north. Most estimates on here put the Dreadfort's and Karhold's forces a thousand to two less than Winterfell's.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

1. In ADWD we see the mountain clans conjure up 3k,

True.

the Dustins and Ryswells at least 2k (at the Fever River) but more likely around 4k,

We dont see that at all. As far as I know one person quoted 2k on here and since then that has been regarded as fact. There is no evidence of 2k attacking the Fever River.

We know Lady Dustin and the Ryswells sent the minimum requirement down South.

the Karstarks around 500,

Yup. 450 men.

the Umbers almost 1k,

Kindof. Whoresbane has 400, we are not given a number for the Green boys under crowfood. The fact that they have had to reseot to sending old men and green boys is not a good sign

Ramsay 2k Boltons

We see Ramsays 600 join up with the Bolton and Karstark men returning with Roose.

and Hornwoods, the Mormonts and Glovers at least a few hundred,

Possibly.

and Manderly several thousand (the amount is up for debate, but 6-8k seems probable).

Phantoms. We have seen 400 at the Siege of Winterfell. When Winterfell was originally taken a Raven was sent to White Harbor and all they sent was a small number of men(anything from 50-200), Moat Cailin was taken by the Ironborn and they did nothing and in the fight for the Hornwood estate it was pretty much a deadlock between them and the Boltons.

There is no indication that they have anywhere near 6k still in the North.

This doesn't include the crannogmen or other houses such as the Lockes and both branches of the Flints.

Perhaps they just dont have the numbers to make a difference. If they had would they not have acted before now?

2. Robb left plenty of troops up north. He took 20k south, out of a total of 45k. 25k men is plenty to defend the North against the Ironborn. The problem was that Rodrik Cassel's bad decisions led to his own death as well as the "deaths" of Bran and Rickon, depriving the North of leaders to rally around.

Clearly he didn't leave enough men. It is not just the threat of the Ironborn but the Nights Watch has been begging for help from the North and gotten nothing in return. We hear of Alys Karstark complaining that there are not enough men left to properly collect the last harvest or the Umbers having to resort to bringing Green boys to battle.

Robb left a shortage of military to defend itself as shown in the books when it was unable to defend itself.

The other alternative is that he left plenty of men but none cared enough to sufficiently come to Bran and Rickons aide.

[Dimples]

I've always wondered why Winter Town isn't larger, only 1/5 of the houses are occupied during the summer. Winterfell is the capital of the North, on the Kingsroad, and close to a branch of the Whiteknife so it's easier to trade with Whiteharbor. I'd expect Winterfell to field a considerably larger force than the Dreadfort or Karhold, neither having a port and especially the latter because it's farther north. Most estimates on here put the Dreadfort's and Karhold's forces a thousand to two less than Winterfell's.

In terms of the population of the lands directly ruled by Winterfell, Winter Town is pretty inconsequential. Winter Town really doesn't matter, as Winterfell's forces come from the rural areas where the people are. Even the Manderlys get most of their forces from the countryside, not White Harbor itself, because that's where almost all the people are. The size of Winter Town has almost impact on the amount of soldiers Winterfell can levy.

As for why Winter Town isn't larger, IIRC the part of the Kingsroad in the North isn't used that much, so it probably wouldn't significantly affect the population of Winter Town. Also, while Winter Town is near the White Knife, it isn't directly on it, which it would have to be to profit from river trade.

[Universal Sword Donor]

Phantoms. We have seen 400 at the Siege of Winterfell. When Winterfell was originally taken a Raven was sent to White Harbor and all they sent was a small number of men(anything from 50-200), Moat Cailin was taken by the Ironborn and they did nothing and in the fight for the Hornwood estate it was pretty much a deadlock between them and the Boltons.

There is no indication that they have anywhere near 6k still in the North.

We know they sent 1500 south. Their overall strength is *at least* going to be in line with the strongest of the Stark bannermen. We also know that they still have more heavy horse than anyone north of the Neck, despite their Wo5K losses. That includes the Dustins, who sent as few south as possible despite being a principal bannerman, and the Boltons, who lost essentially no one from Green Fork to the RW. Keeping normal ratios for cavalry and infantry in mind, that sets their heavy cavalry at at least 500-600 and their infantry at 5K-6K. Infantry might be lower since most of their force headed south was infantry, but we can put a hard cap on the total (~1300).

So even with losses, they are sitting on probably around 4500 soldiers from existing reserves, and we know they are actively recruiting AND have a navy too.

They are in charge of the only city in the North, and they are willing/able to mind silver coins for Robb for a reason.

[Dimples]

True.

We dont see that at all. As far as I know one person quoted 2k on here and since then that has been regarded as fact. There is no evidence of 2k attacking the Fever River. Ok so the 2k at the Fever River is unsubstantiated.

We know Lady Dustin and the Ryswells sent the minimum requirement down South. Given that they're major houses and sent the minimum, they should still have a few thousand.

Yup. 450 men.

Kindof. Whoresbane has 400, we are not given a number for the Green boys under crowfood. The fact that they have had to reseot to sending old men and green boys is not a good sign I always believed that Crowfood had about the same number as Whoresbane, but there's no evidence so it's just a belief. True that the quality of their soldiers is bad.

We see Ramsays 600 join up with the Bolton and Karstark men returning with Roose. I don't remember enough from the book to argue this.

Possibly. They're mentioned as a good portion of Stannis' northmen, so a few hundred is plausible.

Phantoms. We have seen 400 at the Siege of Winterfell. When Winterfell was originally taken a Raven was sent to White Harbor and all they sent was a small number of men(anything from 50-200), Moat Cailin was taken by the Ironborn and they did nothing and in the fight for the Hornwood estate it was pretty much a deadlock between them and the Boltons.

There is no indication that they have anywhere near 6k still in the North. Maybe not 6k, but the Manderlys have a few thousand. They sent 1,500 (or 1,750 I don't remember exactly) men south, significantly less than the Karstarks. The Manderly lands are at least the same size as the Karstark ones, and almost certainly richer and more populated than the Karstark lands. It's logical that the Manderlys have more soldiers than the Karstarks, and given that they sent fewer with Robb it stands to reason they still have a sizeable amount lying around. Lord Wyman says that he has more heavy horse than any other northern lord, so he has at least a few hundred heavy horse (Roose's 4,000 should include a few hundred horse). Seeing as the proportion of heavy horse was probably higher than first group sent with Robb (heavy horse are easier to assemble on short notice), he probably still has a lot of infantry, too. Furthermore, he has roughly 50 good-sized war galleys, which would contain >2k men (although a great portion aren't soldiers) and is recruiting heavily in White Harbor itself.

Perhaps they just dont have the numbers to make a difference. If they had would they not have acted before now? They have numbers, but with the "death" of the Stark kids and Cassel means that the northern lords have no leader they can all rally around. Therefore the northern lords are reduced to individual efforts, such as the Dustins and Ryswells at the Fever River. Also it's stated that every major lord has at least 1,000 men (the size of the NW when Mormont says this), and while these other lords such as the Lockes and Flints probably sent many with Robb, they still have some, if only a little. The crannogmen may have significant numbers, but they were specifically commanded to defend the Neck, and were occupied with the Ironborn at Moat Cailin.

Clearly he didn't leave enough men. It is not just the threat of the Ironborn but the Nights Watch has been begging for help from the North and gotten nothing in return. We hear of Alys Karstark complaining that there are not enough men left to properly collect the last harvest or the Umbers having to resort to bringing Green boys to battle. They're talking about only the areas directly around Karhold and Last Hearth, where men could be gathered quickly to march with Robb. The Karstark lands are about the size of Germany, so it would take too long to gather men from the regions far from Karhold. The situation was probably better further out, but the areas close to Karhold and Last Hearth were definitely depleted of men.

Robb left a shortage of military to defend itself as shown in the books when it was unable to defend itself.

The other alternative is that he left plenty of men but none cared enough to sufficiently come to Bran and Rickons aide. Not all these men could quickly assemble, given the sheer size of the north. Very few White Harbor and Hornwood men could come because they were fighting a mini-civil war against the Dreadfort.

[The Fallen]

True.

We dont see that at all. As far as I know one person quoted 2k on here and since then that has been regarded as fact. There is no evidence of 2k attacking the Fever River.

We know Lady Dustin and the Ryswells sent the minimum requirement down South.

Yup. 450 men.

Kindof. Whoresbane has 400, we are not given a number for the Green boys under crowfood. The fact that they have had to reseot to sending old men and green boys is not a good sign

We see Ramsays 600 join up with the Bolton and Karstark men returning with Roose.

Possibly.

Phantoms. We have seen 400 at the Siege of Winterfell. When Winterfell was originally taken a Raven was sent to White Harbor and all they sent was a small number of men(anything from 50-200), Moat Cailin was taken by the Ironborn and they did nothing and in the fight for the Hornwood estate it was pretty much a deadlock between them and the Boltons.

There is no indication that they have anywhere near 6k still in the North.

Perhaps they just dont have the numbers to make a difference. If they had would they not have acted before now?

Clearly he didn't leave enough men. It is not just the threat of the Ironborn but the Nights Watch has been begging for help from the North and gotten nothing in return. We hear of Alys Karstark complaining that there are not enough men left to properly collect the last harvest or the Umbers having to resort to bringing Green boys to battle.

Robb left a shortage of military to defend itself as shown in the books when it was unable to defend itself.

The other alternative is that he left plenty of men but none cared enough to sufficiently come to Bran and Rickons aide.

By your own estimation there are at least 4,000 men left in the North. This doesn't include whatever men the Ryswells and Manderlys may have. You can make a conservative guess of around 2,000 men. That's 6,000 men.

Now, how many did Tywin leave behind? Or Stannis or Renly? Tywin had to resort to collecting the sweepings of Lannisport for his third army. Renly left a garrison at Storm's End. Ditto for Stannis at both SE and Dragonstone. Mace probably left a garrison also.

Robb left more men than all of them, with the Umbers being the only ones to resort to green boys and old men. Yet you single him out for criticism?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Now, how many did Tywin leave behind? Or Stannis or Renly? Tywin had to resort to collecting the sweepings of Lannisport for his third army. Renly left a garrison at Storm's End. Ditto for Stannis at both SE and Dragonstone. Mace probably left a garrison also.

Tywin left men behind. Robb states to Edmure that he(his 5k) were not enough to take Castrly Rock or Lannisport. He was left to take places like the Crag, a ruin. Balon also doesnt think he has the men to take CR. It is safe to say that the important settlements were well garrisoned.

Robb left more men than all of them, with the Umbers being the only ones to resort to green boys and old men. Yet you single him out for criticism?

Alys Karstark also mentions that they were not left with enough men to bring in the Harvest. Deepwood Motte and Torrhens Square were not left with enough men to defend itself.

[Universal Sword Donor]

Tywin left men behind. Robb states to Edmure that he(his 5k) were not enough to take Castrly Rock or Lannisport. He was left to take places like the Crag, a ruin. Balon also doesnt think he has the men to take CR. It is safe to say that the important settlements were well garrisoned.

Alys Karstark also mentions that they were not left with enough men to bring in the Harvest. Deepwood Motte and Torrhens Square were not left with enough men to defend itself.

Lets edit that a bit. Deepwood Motte is a wooden 'castle.' It's a piece of shit.

No one took Torrhen's square, an actual castle, until they stripped their garrison a la WF, when Rodrik wanted to retake WF, which was stripped of its garrison.

[Dimples]

Tywin left men behind. Robb states to Edmure that he(his 5k) were not enough to take Castrly Rock or Lannisport. He was left to take places like the Crag, a ruin. Balon also doesnt think he has the men to take CR. It is safe to say that the important settlements were well garrisoned.

With a proper garrison, a strong castle like Casterly Rock or Winterfell could hold off thousands. Robb also left men behind, enough to garrison Winterfell effectively, it's just that Rodrik Cassel took them away.

[The Fallen]

Tywin left men behind. Robb states to Edmure that he(his 5k) were not enough to take Castrly Rock or Lannisport. He was left to take places like the Crag, a ruin. Balon also doesnt think he has the men to take CR. It is safe to say that the important settlements were well garrisoned.

Alys Karstark also mentions that they were not left with enough men to bring in the Harvest. Deepwood Motte and Torrhens Square were not left with enough men to defend itself.

How many men would you say it takes to successfully defend Casterly Rock? A few hundred? The same with the Golden Tooth? Even if Lannisport has 2,000 men that's still less than the North.

And when did Balon make that statement? He said Tywin was cunning, he didn't say anything about not having the strength, if I recall correctly.

And it's funny how Tywin doesn't have to leave enough men to defend every castle in the west, but Robb has to defend every castle in the North? There's no double standard there.

Same for the Karstarks. How is it Robb's fault that Alys' uncle has taken whatever men were left and now they can't properly farm their fields, and how is that relevant?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Also it's stated that every major lord has at least 1,000 men (the size of the NW when Mormont says this), and while these other lords such as the Lockes and Flints probably sent many with Robb, they still have some, if only a little.

We should use this to get a better understanding of how many each House in the North has. Ran states in this video that the North has around 35k.

At the start of the series, we have the

• Starks as the Overlords(including Glovers and Tallhearts in this figure): I figure that this combo will equal whichever House has the highest number of soldiers. For the time being I will have them at 4k, in my opinion a Conservative estimate.

As well as the Noble House of

• Bolton: Roose brought 3,5k home of Bolton and Karstark men. If add the 600 Ramay used to take Winterfell I will put the Boltons at a conservative 2k
• Cerwyn: 1k
• Dustin: 1k
• Flint of Flints finger: 1k
• Flint of Widows Watch: 1k
• Hornwood: 1k
• Karstark: Bring 2,300 South and have 450 remaining. 2,750
• Locke: 1k
• Manderly: 1,500 South and have at least 400 remaining
• Mormont: 1k
• Reed( which includes the other Crannogmen): 1k
• Ryswell: 1k
• Umber: the Greatjon, like Rickard, controls one of the three Towers at Moat Cailin this suggests that he has brought a similar amount of men South. I will be conservative and put the amount at 2k including the 400-700 that remained in the North.

All of whom have at least 1k.

As well as

• Mountain Clans: We know that they contribute around 3k to Stannis and supply some men to Robb down South. I will call that 4k.
• Skagos. ???

From that 35k we have 26k with around 10k to add on to some House and Skagos.

'l will edit the likely mistakes I make.

[Universal Sword Donor]

We should use this to get a better understanding of how many each House in the North has. Ran states in this video that the North has around 35k.

At the start of the series, we have the

• Starks as the Overlords(including Glovers and Tallhearts in this figure): I figure that this combo will equal whichever House has the highest number of soldiers. For the time being I will have them at 4k, in my opinion a Conservative estimate.

As well as the Noble House of

• Bolton: Roose brought 3,5k home of Bolton and Karstark men. If add the 600 Ramay used to take Winterfell I will put the Boltons at a conservative 2k

Cerwyn: 1k

Dustin: 1k

Flint of Flints finger: 1k

Flint of Widows Watch: 1k

Hornwood: 1k

Karstark: Bring 2,300 South and have 450 remaining. 2,750

Locke: 1k

Manderly: 1,500 South and have at least 400 remaining

Mormont: 1k

Reed( which includes the other Crannogmen): 1k

Ryswell: 1k

Umber: the Greatjon, like Rickard, controls one of the three Towers at Moat Cailin this suggests that he has brought a similar amount of men South. I will be conservative and put the amount at 2k including the 400-700 that remained in the North.

All of whom have at least 1k.

As well as

• Mountain Clans: We know that they contribute around 3k to Stannis and supply some men to Robb down South. I will call that 4k.

Skagos. ???

From that 35k we have 26k with around 10k to add on to some House and Skagos.

'l will edit the likely mistakes I make.

These estimates might be accurate for someone who hadn't read the books or watched the shows or didn't have a forum login.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

How many men would you say it takes to successfully defend Casterly Rock? A few hundred? The same with the Golden Tooth? Even if Lannisport has 2,000 men that's still less than the North.

I have no idea. Unfortunately, we have spent no time in the West so everything is mostly speculation. As Castrly Rock is supposed to be the second largest castle after Harenhall I'd imagine it needs a fair few.

CR and LP are not the only valuable settlements in the West. Banefort and Faircastle would also leave protection as the Ironborn has always been a danger to the West and I'd speculate that Crakehall and some of the other settlements that share a border with the Reach would also have been left with healthy defenses.

And when did Balon make that statement? He said Tywin was cunning, he didn't say anything about not having the strength, if I recall correctly.

When Theon shares his plan he states that they could never take Casterly Rock.

And it's funny how Tywin doesn't have to leave enough men to defend every castle in the west, but Robb has to defend every castle in the North? There's no double standard there.

Its not a double standard. I'm not arguing that everyone but Robb left plenty of men at home. Far from it, had Dorne marched into the Stormlands while Renly was marching towards Kings Landing they too would have been caught with their pants down. The Reach seem to have been caught napping in exactly the same way that Robb was.

My point is the exaggeration of how many men the North can raise against all evidence pointing it to being around 30- 40k

Same for the Karstarks. How is it Robb's fault that Alys' uncle has taken whatever men were left and now they can't properly farm their fields, and how is that relevant?

This thread is about the Norths numbers. If the Karstarks were having trouble bringing in the Harvest then it suggests that there few men left behind.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

These estimates might be accurate for someone who hadn't read the books or watched the shows or didn't have a forum login.

They are the minimum estimates. Read the bottom quote, tell me what needs to be added and I will edit it, or you can just bitch about it. Whatever.

[Universal Sword Donor]

They are the minimum estimates. Read the bottom quote, tell me what needs to be added and I will edit it, or you can just bitch about it. Whatever.

Read the rest of the thread. Then you can complain that no one has corrected you. Your minimum estimates might be appropriate for something roughly 1/10 the size of the North.

[Free Northman Reborn]

We should use this to get a better understanding of how many each House in the North has. Ran states in this

that the North has around 35k.

At the start of the series, we have the

• Starks as the Overlords(including Glovers and Tallhearts in this figure): I figure that this combo will equal whichever House has the highest number of soldiers. For the time being I will have them at 4k, in my opinion a Conservative estimate.

As well as the Noble House of

• Bolton: Roose brought 3,5k home of Bolton and Karstark men. If add the 600 Ramay used to take Winterfell I will put the Boltons at a conservative 2k
• Cerwyn: 1k
• Dustin: 1k
• Flint of Flints finger: 1k
• Flint of Widows Watch: 1k
• Hornwood: 1k
• Karstark: Bring 2,300 South and have 450 remaining. 2,750
• Locke: 1k
• Manderly: 1,500 South and have at least 400 remaining
• Mormont: 1k
• Reed( which includes the other Crannogmen): 1k
• Ryswell: 1k
• Umber: the Greatjon, like Rickard, controls one of the three Towers at Moat Cailin this suggests that he has brought a similar amount of men South. I will be conservative and put the amount at 2k including the 400-700 that remained in the North.

All of whom have at least 1k.

As well as

• Mountain Clans: We know that they contribute around 3k to Stannis and supply some men to Robb down South. I will call that 4k.
• Skagos. ???

From that 35k we have 26k with around 10k to add on to some House and Skagos.

'l will edit the likely mistakes I make.

Ran never once claims inside knowledge to make that estimate. It is his guess, and he never tries to imply otherwise.

Quite simply, Ran's guess is wrong on this issue.

At the very least, the North can match the Vale's strength. Martin himself stated that, many years ago.

Since then he has scrapped the 5 year gap, which may be driving him to find additional soldiers for the North which he previously planned to gather from a gradual 5 year replenishment period which now no longer exists.

We see that the Dustins and Ryswells aren't even mentioned in the list of primary bannermen in the GoT Appendix, and yet we learn in Dance that they are some of the strongest of all the Northern lords.

The extra mountain men, Manderly's fleet, Skagos, etc all indicate more reserves that may not originally have been planned for.

Originally Martin planned for the North to equal the Vale. Even if that still applies the North likely has a strength of at least 40-45k.

After the scrapping of the 5 year gap that figure could now be in the 50k range.

Also, those figures you quote are patently ridiculous when you have the Dustins and Ryswells at 1k each, and the Manderlys in the 2k range.

We are told the least of the Stark bannermen can raise more men than the entire Watch and yet you have the majority of them at 1k, including the Dustins and Ryswells?

Not even close.

[Dimples]

We should use this to get a better understanding of how many each House in the North has. Ran states in this video that the North has around 35k.

At the start of the series, we have the

• Starks as the Overlords(including Glovers and Tallhearts in this figure): I figure that this combo will equal whichever House has the highest number of soldiers. For the time being I will have them at 4k, in my opinion a Conservative estimate.

As well as the Noble House of

• Bolton: Roose brought 3,5k home of Bolton and Karstark men. If add the 600 Ramay used to take Winterfell I will put the Boltons at a conservative 2k

Cerwyn: 1k

Dustin: 1k

Flint of Flints finger: 1k

Flint of Widows Watch: 1k

Hornwood: 1k

Karstark: Bring 2,300 South and have 450 remaining. 2,750

Locke: 1k

Manderly: 1,500 South and have at least 400 remaining

Mormont: 1k

Reed( which includes the other Crannogmen): 1k

Ryswell: 1k

Umber: the Greatjon, like Rickard, controls one of the three Towers at Moat Cailin this suggests that he has brought a similar amount of men South. I will be conservative and put the amount at 2k including the 400-700 that remained in the North.

All of whom have at least 1k.

As well as

• Mountain Clans: We know that they contribute around 3k to Stannis and supply some men to Robb down South. I will call that 4k.

Skagos. ???

From that 35k we have 26k with around 10k to add on to some House and Skagos.

'l will edit the likely mistakes I make.

Of the men Roose brought back, the vast majority were Bolton men, so the Boltons would be more like 3-4k. Manderly has a confirmed 400 men not including his fleet, but it seems he has at least as many men in total as Bolton. Dustin and Ryswell should have much more than 1k each, as their lands are about the size of the Umber's and have a warmer, more hospitable climate. In general the houses in the southern parts of the north should have some more. The Starks without Glover and Tallhart should probably be around equal with the Boltons, so adding in Glover and Tallhart would put them at least at 5k. The mountain clan estimates seem right, and Skagos, being several times the size of Bear Island, should have around 3k.

Overall 35k seems to be very low, but still plausible. I would say 45k is a more likely estimate.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Ran never once claims inside knowledge to make that estimate. It is his guess, and he never tries to imply otherwise.

Quite simply, Ran's guess is wrong on this issue.

At the very least, the North can match the Vale's strength. Martin himself stated that, many years ago.

Since then he has scrapped the 5 year gap, which may be driving him to find additional soldiers for the North which he previously planned to gather from a gradual 5 year replenishment period which now no longer exists.

We see that the Dustins and Ryswells aren't even mentioned in the list of primary bannermen in the GoT Appendix, and yet we learn in Dance that they are some of the strongest of all the Northern lords.

The extra mountain men, Manderly's fleet, Skagos, etc all indicate more reserves that may not originally have been planned for.

Originally Martin planned for the North to equal the Vale. Even if that still applies the North likely has a strength of at least 40-45k.

After the scrapping of the 5 year gap that figure could now be in the 50k range.

Also, those figures you quote are patently ridiculous when you have the Dustins and Ryswells at 1k each, and the Manderlys in the 2k range.

We are told the least of the Stark bannermen can raise more men than the entire Watch and yet you have the majority of them at 1k, including the Dustins and Ryswells?

Not even close.

I dont think he needs to increase the Norths military to get those numbers he needs from scrapping the 5 year gap. The Iron bank has promised Stannis the money to hire 20k mercs to help him regain his Throne, he in turn has sent Justin Massey to go hire those men and to use them even if he himself is dead.

That is most likely where the missing numbers will come from.

I figure Shireen and Rickon will have a marriage contract cementing their cause, I also think Stannis will die in the next book.

[Universal Sword Donor]

I dont think he needs to increase the Norths military to get those numbers he needs from scrapping the 5 year gap. The Iron bank has promised Stannis the money to hire 20k mercs to help him regain his Throne, he in turn has sent Justin Massey to go hire those men and to use them even if he himself is dead.

That is most likely where the missing numbers will come from.

I figure Shireen and Rickon will have a marriage contract cementing their cause, I also think Stannis will die in the next book.

Your ability to opine is appreciated. Do you have anything to support your weak suppositions OR contradict other posts?