Show us that Aegon VI is really Aegon

[butterbumps!]

OK, here's my next question: Why go through the trouble of a switch? Why not smuggle them out and be done with it?

It would let the rebels know that there were still loose ends out there in the form of Targ heirs, so I get the need for a swap versus smuggling.

Still, it's strange that Elia would be in the nursery clinging to a fake rather than in Rhaenys' room when the attacks began.

I can make an argument for this I think: No one suspected that Tywin would have Elia and both children slaughtered-- it surprised everyone, including Jaime. Let's suppose that the pisswater baby was swapped not because they expected the infanta to be killed, but rather taken prisoner. It's possible that Varys convinced Elia to switch babies with the promise that he could conjure support for Aegon off away from KL to raise the Targ dynasty again, but in order to do so, she'd have to raise the sub as her own to keep the suspicion down.

If this was the plan-- that the swap would happen not to save life of the babies (because killing kids like this wasn't usual prior to this sack) but to keep an heir safe in case of royal imprisonment to rise again at some point-- then it could explain why Elia would keep up the lie in the nursey with the fake, and not be rushing to her real child.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Maybe he couldn't? Maybe Varys isn't as omniscient and clever as some people think he is?

Or maybe he just adapted an already existing plan to smuggle Aegon out of the capital, devised by Rhaegar in order to spirit away his heir from his crazy father?

Well if you believe that Aegon is real, he did smuggle out one of them successfully. Why use a switch at all? If he can get one, why not both? He's done far more impressive smuggling — Illyrio, Tyrion — in the castle than that.

And I don't see anything at all suggesting that Rhaegar and Varys were in any sort of collusion, especially since it looks like Varys was one of the people feeding Aerys's paranoia, including feeding it against Rhaegar and Rhaella.

Also, since playing Devil's advocate seems to be in vogue in this thread - what if Varys' speech wasn't meant for Kevan, but for us?

All the more reason to think Varys is serving up crap, if it is meant for readers. There are already holes in it, like the idea that Aegon "knows what it's like to be hunted." Well, no he doesn't — he can't, because no one was ever looking for him.

[TheCrannogDweller]

Btw, if you look at this from a logical standpoint, Aegon as the immediate heir to the throne was in a much bigger danger than Rhaenys was. After all, who could've imagined that the entire royal family would be killed? That's an unprecedented act.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

It would let the rebels know that there were still loose ends out there in the form of Targ heirs, so I get the need for a swap versus smuggling.

Still, it's strange that Elia would be in the nursery clinging to a fake rather than in Rhaenys' room when the attacks began.

I can make an argument for this I think: No one suspected that Tywin would have Elia and both children slaughtered-- it surprised everyone, including Jaime. Let's suppose that the pisswater baby was swapped not because they expected the infanta to be killed, but rather taken prisoner. It's possible that Varys convinced Elia to switch babies with the promise that he could conjure support for Aegon off away from KL to raise the Targ dynasty again, but in order to do so, she'd have to raise the sub as her own to keep the suspicion down.

If this was the plan-- that the swap would happen not to save life of the babies (because killing kids like this wasn't usual prior to this sack) but to keep an heir safe in case of royal imprisonment to rise again at some point-- then it could explain why Elia would keep up the lie in the nursey with the fake, and not be rushing to her real child.

It says a lot when someone who believes Young Griff is a fake argues that he's real more convincingly than people who actually think he's real. :P

I don't, however, really buy the smuggle vs. switch argument, given the Viserys/Dany precedent. They were just as much heirs as Aegon and Rhaenys would've been and Robert largely left them alone until Dany got knocked up.

[TheCrannogDweller]

All the more reason to think Varys is serving up crap, if it is meant for readers.

Yeah, but if that is the case, it wouldn't be Varys serving us the crap - it would be GRRM himself. And I don't believe that he would lie to us all the time - I think he would mix truths with lies. Otherwise, he would get predictable.

I don't, however, really buy the smuggle vs. switch argument, given the Viserys/Dany precedent. They were just as much heirs as Aegon and Rhaenys would've been and Robert largely left them alone until Dany got knocked up.

The Viserys/Rhaella precedent. Unless you know of a medieval way to determine the baby's gender prior to birth.

Also, let's not pretend that ever since the Dance there was really a chance for a woman to inherit the Targaryen throne. So the male heirs were much more important.

And, by the by, do you remember what made Robert want Daenerys dead? Her pregnancy and the possibility that she might give birth to a son.

[RumHam]

Robert largely left them alone until Dany got knocked up.

Thats not totally true, he did send the fleet to capture them and Dragonstone once it was rebuilt. He just didn't chase them across the sea. I do wonder what he would have done with them if he got them. Probably nothing good.

[Lord of Beyond the Wall]

He has to be a fake, why would Elia fight Clegane for a baby that isn't hers and why wouldn't she make sure Rhaenys left with him?

I love the idea that he sits on the throne because only the readers find out he's a fake. Him and everyone else believe he's the son of Rhaegar and Elia ;)

Because after all she is a mother. Any way, any kind of swap has to be with the knowledge of Elia and her approve, remember that she was held almost like a prisoner and after the news that the Crown Prince has been assassinated by the drunken Lord the immediate and reasonable thing to do was to put the heir at safe. It was a madness to keep the King and the Prince in the same location and after King Aerys decide to open the doors of KL to Tywin Lannister it was urgent to save the Prince. It's also necessary to remember that it was Kevan Lannister who said that anyone look with too much attention the body of the infant corpse that Tywin said it was the Prince, nobody actually identified the body as the one of Prince Aegon Targaryen.

[Lord Syv Aldlark]

Hey, hey...

Elia gave her life to protect Aegon from Gregor- her love magic protected him from any attack.

His hair was changed to blue by the magic and Gregor was helpless to do him harm- instead he found another baby to smash while Varys sneaked Aegon out of KL.

He will be forever known as "The Boy Who Survived the Mountain"

[Sigurður Ingi]

OK, here's my next question: Why go through the trouble of a switch? Why not smuggle them out and be done with it?

Would not be strange that heir of the throne was lost and same time when Lannisters attack the castle and also it be more riskier to smuggle children in case of the enemy having spies so by using switchthey can easily fool the enemy by saying that child was at room while the real one was smuggle out.

Reason for elder child and mother leaving behind while only young one was smuggle out was make the plan much true by having the queen and elder daughter at same room where the heir was in case of spies would find out about the plan.

That's still very unconvincing. It means that Varys walked up to her and said "It is likely that you and your children will soon be killed. Luckily I have found an easy way to safe your son. Any questions?"

I can imagine Elia not trying to escape, because she knows that her death would be a lot harder to fake, and if she just escapes people will be looking for her and her children, thereby endangering them. But if it's true that she actually resigned Rhaenys to be killed just so that Aegon's survival becomes a bit more likely, she was about the worst mother ever. Surely Rhaenys could be replaced as well.

Nah, if Aegon is real then Elia knew nothing about the plan. She might have realized, in her last few moments, that the child she was trying to defend was not actually her own, but she could not have been part of the deception. This was done by someone who did not care one bit about Rhaenys and Elia and just needed a male heir.

Because it is more easier to switch toddler like Aegon who was around 1 year old according to wiki and maybe the plan was to switch both children but when time came to do they didn't find replacement of her daughter and Ella decided instead of having losing her both children, she would save her other baby and sacrificing herself knowing that at least one of her children was save and had lived.

And would she not also be worst mother if she had lost both children knowing that she could have at least saved one of them.

[Light a wight tonight]

OK, here's my next question: Why go through the trouble of a switch? Why not smuggle them out and be done with it?

Smuggling them out would only be the first step. The usurper and his dogs would be searching for the kids and even if the kids got to Essos they would be the targets of assassins. Better to let Bob & Co think they were dead. End of story.

[The guy from the Vale]

Because it is more easier to switch toddler like Aegon who was around 1 year old according to wiki and maybe the plan was to switch both children but when time came to do they didn't find replacement of her daughter and Ella decided instead of having losing her both children, she would save her other baby and sacrificing herself knowing that at least one of her children was save and had lived.

And would she not also be worst mother if she had lost both children knowing that she could have at least saved one of them.

Except that Aegon had the much more exotic looks compared to Rhaenys. If you manage to find a silver-haired toddler, you should be able to find a brown-haired four-year-old girl.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Smuggling them out would only be the first step. The usurper and his dogs would be searching for the kids and even if the kids got to Essos they would be the targets of assassins. Better to let Bob & Co think they were dead. End of story.

Except that Viserys and Daenerys lived in Essos and nobody gave a shit until they tried to get the Dothraki army. That's my primary issue with "Targ heirs in exile = assassins everywhere." We've already had that exact thing, and lo, no assassins.

[Pero the first of His name]

Except that Aegon had the much more exotic looks compared to Rhaenys. If you manage to find a silver-haired toddler, you should be able to find a brown-haired four-year-old girl.

A 4-year old already has a distinct appearance while toddlers all pretty much look like potatoes.

[Dr. Pepper]

Well, that hostile tone of writing in the OP could have been avoided, but anyway:

What has been mentioned before, and also: Because Aegon being alive already was a big reveal in itself, since there have been only very sparse hints up until ADwD. Obviously that theory existed, but EVERYTHING that's not explicitely disproven will spawn a theory in forums like that. I personally didn't think Aegon was alive until the reveal, since it reeked of the cliche of the "rightful ruler's" long lost son.

Now piling another reveal on top of that is just lazy storytelling.

And, no, I wouldn't really say that I am in any kind of "group" regarding this.

This question isn't directed specifically at you, more in general, but I'm using your post as it touches on an often used criticism of Aegon being fAegon: that the reveal was shocking and another reveal is lazy.

After all of the reveals in the books, some that were quite shocking for those of us who weren't paying attention to the hints, why is yet another reveal considered lazy? There have been countless reveals in the books. For some of us, we didn't notice anything until the reveal happened and it was a wtf moment. For others of us, we noticed the clues and it was more of a "i knew it!" moment. How is this one different when some readers see it and other readers don't?

[Sigurður Ingi]

Except that Aegon had the much more exotic looks compared to Rhaenys. If you manage to find a silver-haired toddler, you should be able to find a brown-haired four-year-old girl.

I think it is possible that substitute child could easily been an light blond child and also it is much easier to smuggle an toddler since it is smaller than 4. year old girl and also it is easier to transport toddler rather than 4.year old girl and also toddler is less likely to ask questions.

And also Gregor did not make case easier to recognize the child :

“ Kevan Lannister had been here, in this very hall when Tywin had laid the bodies of Prince Rhaegar's children at the foot of the Iron Throne, wrapped up in crimson cloaks. The girl had been recognizably the Princess Rhaenys, but the boy... a faceless horror of bone and brain and gore. None of us looked long. Tywin said that it was Prince Aegon and we took him at his word. ^[2]

source: http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Aegon_Targaryen

[Petyr Patter]

Why is Aegon the real deal? Because he genuinely believes he's the real deal, he looks the part, and there is no one else out there to prove otherwise.

Whether or not it's TRUE, matters far less than if it is BELIEVED. I don't think Martin plans on revealing it one way or the other explicitly. Historically, lost heirs appear somewhat often, but are almost never proven to be the real deal one way or another. It some ways, the enhanced confusion just makes for a better story.

[Gar Weg Wun Sygerrik]

Except that Viserys and Daenerys lived in Essos and nobody gave a shit until they tried to get the Dothraki army. That's my primary issue with "Targ heirs in exile = assassins everywhere." We've already had that exact thing, and lo, no assassins.

There was no way to know that Bob would be so lax, and the Lannister sack happened beforehand so Daenerys and Viserys set a precedent after the fact. If Varys was truly trying to save the heir, he had no need to bother with 2 that were not the heirs.

[Gregor Blows in the Wind]

Mother recognizing false baby thing, and fighting for baby thing: we weren't there. I am eagerly awaiting truth on Aegon one way or the other, but long ago tales of baby killing just don't sway me one way or the other.

You have to speculate when trying to find logic here.

[Dr. Pepper]

I think it is possible that substitute child could easily been an light blond child and also it is much easier to smuggle an toddler since it is smaller than 4. year old girl and also it is easier to transport toddler rather than 4.year old girl and also toddler is less likely to ask questions.

And also Gregor did not make case easier to recognize the child :

“ Kevan Lannister had been here, in this very hall when Tywin had laid the bodies of Prince Rhaegar's children at the foot of the Iron Throne, wrapped up in crimson cloaks. The girl had been recognizably the Princess Rhaenys, but the boy... a faceless horror of bone and brain and gore. None of us looked long. Tywin said that it was Prince Aegon and we took him at his word. ^[2]

source: http://awoiaf.wester...Aegon_Targaryen

Isn't it convenient that the face of the babe was dashed in? Almost like it helped the fAegon cause. What would they have done if they babe hadn't been smashed to near unrecognizeable?

[Mountain Tribesman]

That's still very unconvincing. It means that Varys walked up to her and said "It is likely that you and your children will soon be killed. Luckily I have found an easy way to safe your son. Any questions?"

I can imagine Elia not trying to escape, because she knows that her death would be a lot harder to fake, and if she just escapes people will be looking for her and her children, thereby endangering them. But if it's true that she actually resigned Rhaenys to be killed just so that Aegon's survival becomes a bit more likely, she was about the worst mother ever. Surely Rhaenys could be replaced as well.

You forget, the children were in no immediate danger when Aegon was replaced and sent to Essos. It was done as a precautionary measure, in case the worst happened and someone wanted to kill the heir to the IT, not his sister. Nobody expected her to be murdered, along with her mother. As for Elia... she was most likely surprised by the appearance of Gregor and wasn't in the same place as Rhaeneys, so she couldn't protect her, but still defended the little baby in her arms.

Jon first time met the boy when he was five... So, this argument is flawed...

Not really. So I missed a detail, but the point was that Rhaegar would've reasonably wanted to have his son out of Westeros in case things went bad in the war against Robert, as they did. How things were organized later on in Essos matters little, the kid was out of danger.