Show us that Aegon VI is really Aegon

[The guy from the Vale]

No, Tyrion had figured it out till then. Why else would he say that wonders and whatever come to greet the oncoming of Kings...

I keep repeating myself, but Tyrion didn't "figure it out". He was told the answer by Haldon. All he knew until then was that several people on the boat were not who they claimed to be, and that Young Griff's education was way over the top for a sellsword's son.

[Borsabil]

Again, A baby buys you time. You might only be needing a few hours, which fits with the last minute desperation feel of the whole idea. Remember Varys: people see what they expect to see. A fair haired baby in Elua's arms with his sister in the room...who exactly is going to be checking too closely in the heat of the moment.

Later, after head smash, you adjust because the situation allows for it.

You're putting the cart before the horse. It's not anyone's job to prove that Griff is a fake, personally given the surprise reveal and many inconsistencies I have to be convinced he isn't.

Let me explain the supposed baby swap in another way that's far more plausible and fits in with what we know about the type of men Varys and Illyrio are. The baby is killed by having his head smashed in. They think opportunity! They pick out a likely candidate, someone who has the Targ features not unknown in Essos. They rear and groom him as a means to usurp the throne with them being the puppet masters pulling the strings. Perhaps they have darker or deeper motives beyond the lust for power? The swap theory cannot explain Varys motivation, a foreigner risking death to spirit away a Targ baby. Why on earth, given everything we know about him, would Varys ever do such a thing? The alternate makes perfect sense however.

Griff is the wrong age, the only 'proof' we have is the testimony of a pathological liar and manipulator, we have many allusions to 'mummers dragons', the golden company, sworn enemies of the Targs decide to support him, and the list goes on. Jeez of course he's a fake. The reason for his existence is to get Dany out of Meereen and over to Westeros, once that's done he won't be around for long.

[James Arryn]

Yes, it is on the readers. I personally believe he had it figured. He figured out who Griff was as well.

Yeah, I'm not paying attention. You are disputing whether or not Tyrion had it figured out, not what version he believed. Sorry, off my game. In crowded hostel getting ready for pub crawl.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I keep repeating myself, but Tyrion didn't "figure it out". He was told the answer by Haldon. All he knew until then was that several people on the boat were not who they claimed to be, and that Young Griff's education was way over the top for a sellsword's son.

Confirmed, not told. He did have figured it out

[The guy from the Vale]

Confirmed, not told. He did have figured it out

Eh, I just reread that chapter yesterday. If you could tell me the line where Tyrion is figuring it out before the cyvasse game against Haldon, I'd love to get that hint :) As far as I understood it, Tyrion thought the story about Griff and Young Griff didn't add up, but did not know what to make of it until playing against Haldon.

Note that the Tortoise sighting happens after the cyvasse game.

[mosesxtwist]

4. The "mummer's dragon" = Dany, or simply refers to "Varys' Dragon" if Aegon is still the referent

The "mummers dragon" wouldn't change whether Aegon is a blackfyre or Targaryen. Red or black, a dragon is a dragon.

[PrimeRhaegar]

i simply adhere to an author centered analysis of the book. So unless the author says he is fake then he is not fake for me. If any one uses reader response or which ever other critcial theory to base that aegon is fake then more power to them for that.

[jordanmp16]

Kevan Lannister had been here, in this very hall when Tywin had laid the bodies of Prince Rhaegar's children at the foot of the Iron Throne, wrapped up in crimson cloaks. The girl had been recognizably the Princess Rhaenys, but the boy... a faceless horror of bone and brain and gore. None of us looked long. Tywin said that it was Prince Aegon and we took him at his word.

it was never truly confirmed that it was aegon who was dead, and if we've learned anything from martin its that no one is truly dead until he makes it absolutely clear they're dead

[Borsabil]

The "mummers dragon" wouldn't change whether Aegon is a blackfyre or Targaryen. Red or black, a dragon is a dragon.

Griff isn't claiming to be a Blackfyre, he's claiming he's a Targ. And anyway who's saying that he's either? We have even less proof of the former than the latter.

When you sum it up the only reason we think Griff is Aegon is because Varys says so, and that's it. The only reason that some think he's a Blackfyre is because the golden company support him, presumably on the word of Illyrio. So to sum up two manipulating pathological liars are the sole 'proof' of authnenticity.

[Drexyon7]

Babie Aegon's head was dashed in to make the body unrecognizable and the death ambiguous.

Aegon is mentioned frequently so we don't forget.

It would be just as easy if not easier to fool the GC into thinking he's a Blackfyre rather then fool all of Westeros into thinking he's a Targ.

The Wall baby swap

It really comes down to if you buy what Varys is saying though.

[Ygrain]

i simply adhere to an author centered analysis of the book. So unless the author says he is fake then he is not fake for me. If any one uses reader response or which ever other critcial theory to base that aegon is fake then more power to them for that.

And where exactly does the author say that he is the real deal? The characters who claim either have no way of knowing (JC) or are notorious liars (Varys and Illyrio). That's not exactly what I'd call reliable sources.

[MasterJack]

I am with the (f)Aegon crowd and I didnt read all 6 pages so sorry if it was already said.

There is a lot of Foreshadowing about a fake Targ, but it doesnt have to be Aegon.

What if the fake Dragon was Dany. And hatching dragons and *cough*not*cough" taming em has nothing to do with some magical blood.

[bent branch]

First, I'm glad to see that Aegon is Rhaegar's son is generally being acknowledged as the default position and the burden of proof being with those who think he is false. Having said that, at the end of ADWD I was very much on the fence as to whether Aegon was real or not. In my first read I missed all the clues that someone claiming to be Aegon was going to show up, so I didn't have any opinion as to whether he was real or not.

In my mind there is only one standard by which we can determine whether Aegon is Rhaegar's son or not. That standard lies in determining the motivations of the men who are backing Aegon, Varys and Illyrio. Illyrio tells us he is paying a debt of affection to Varys. I have no problem with this explanation for Illyrio's motives. Therefore, the only person's motivations that matter to me as to whether Aegon is real or not is Varys. The first time I read the novels, this section of text from Chapter 44 of ACOK struck me really strongly:

...The eunuch paused a moment. "My lord, you once asked me how it was that I was cut."

"I recall," said Tyrion. "You did not want to talk of it."

"Nor do I, but..." This pause was longer than the one before, and when Varys spoke again his voice was different somehow. "I was an orphan boy apprenticed to a traveling folly. Our master owned a fat little cog and we sailed up and down the narrow sea performing in all the Free Cities and from time to time in Oldtown and King's Landing.

"One day at Myr, a certain man came to our folly. After the performance, he made an offer for me that my master found too tempting to refuse. I was in terror. I feared the man meant to use me as I had heard men used small boys, but in truth the only part of me he had need of was my manhood. He gave me a potion tht made me powerless to move or speak, yet did nothing to dull my senses. With a long hooked blade, he slice me root and stem, chanting all the while. I watched him burn my manly parts on a brazier. The flames turned blue, and I heard a voice answer his call, thought I did not understand the words they spoke.

"The mummers had sailed by the time he was done with me. Once I had served his purpose, the man had no further interest in me, so he put me out. When I asked him what I should do now, he answered that he supposed I should die. To spite him, I resolved to live. I begged, I stole, and I sold what parts of my body still remained to me. Soon I was as good a thief as any in Myr, and when I was older I learned that often the contents of a man's letters are more valuable than the contents of his purse.

"Yet I still dream of that night, my lord. Not of the sorcerer, nor his blade, nor even the way my manhood shriveled as it burned. I dream of the voice. The voice from the flames. Was it a god, a demon, some conjuror's trick? I could not tell you, and I know all the tricks. All I can say for a certainty is that he called it, and it answered, and since that day I have hated magic and all those who practice it. If Lord Stannis is one such, I mean to see him dead."

When he was done, they rode in silence for a time. Finally Tyrion said, "A harrowing tale. I'm sorry."

The eunuch sighed, "You are sorry, but you do not believe me. No, my lord, no need to apologize. I was drugged and in pain and it was a very long time ago and far across the sea. No doubt I dreamed that voice. I've told myself as much a thousand times."

To me this is one of the best examples I have ever read of a person explaining how a traumatizing event has affected him. Even before I knew that Aegon would be in the story, I believed "the voice" was Varys' motive. Subsequent readings have not changed my opinion. After seeing Conleth Hill deliver this monologue (and it was almost word for word the same), my attitude has harden even further. I do not believe Varys' story was a lie or that the take-away from this monologue was that Varys hates magic users. I believe he is haunted by that voice and is compelled to do something about it. I cannot really believe any theory that does not incorporate the voice.

By removing Serra and inserting the Tattered Prince into the Aegon as Blackfyre theory, I myself can come up with a theory strong enough to pass even my stringent standards. However, given that that theory doesn't incorporate "the voice" I don't believe it. The only theory that I can come up with that incorporates "the voice" is that Varys is working off of the PTWP/AA/3HotD prophecies and, therefore, Aegon must be real. Could I be wrong? Easily, but it is the best solution in my opinion at this time.

ETA: As to the issue of whether or not we will ever learn if Aegon is indeed real or fake, I think we will. I think eventually we will find out exactly what Varys' motives are. Once we learn Varys' motives we will know if Aegon is legit. The people in the story may not find out, but I feel sure we the reader will.

[Ser Creighton]

Another Aegon is fake/real thread? So basically you think it's a stupid debate, and you want to debate it??? Was there something wrong with the old ones that you just complained about? Or is it time to go over the same argument again?

Can we do a Wylla is Jon's mother thread, or a Dany is/is not fire proof thread again? There are dozens of them. I don't understand the logic, just pop up one of the old ones.

[Raining Blood Magic]

Aegon is the real Aegon but he isn't the savior of the realm.

[Esa1996]

Here is a small point (Im pro fake aegon theory anyway)

Martin says he got a lot from Maurice Druons " le rois maudits ". The baby prince switching happens there, saving little Joan I from mourder by making a switch with an other baby who ends up killed insted.

That already happens with Mance's son and Gilly's son.

[Viserion-Dracarys]

Jon first time met the boy when he was five... So, this argument is flawed...

Yes, in fact he did. Which got me thinking - Jon is a suspicious man, and Varys is not one of the people he would wholeheartedly trust.I don't think he would have ever agreed to raise a child if he did not have proof that he is real. Raising the boy meant that he had to fake his own death and dedicate about 15 years of his life to him, I don't think Jon would have done that if he did not have a reason to believe in Aegon being the Aegon. I doubt that the boy having the Targaryen looks was enough for him...

[Mladen]

Yes, in fact he did. Which got me thinking - Jon is a suspicious man, and Varys is not one of the people he would wholeheartedly trust.I don't think he would have ever agreed to raise a child if he did not have proof that he is real. Raising the boy meant that he had to fake his own death and dedicate about 15 years of his life to him, I don't think Jon would have done that if he did not have a reason to believe in Aegon being the Aegon. I doubt that the boy having the Targaryen looks was enough for him...

The problem is that we have nothing to assume that Jon was particularly suspicious about Aegon. Varys could have brought the boy to him, and he could have easily convinced himself that boy is Rhaegar's son. Love is powerful emotion and we have seen how it can distort characters' reasoning. So, no, I doubt that Jon asked any proof, and, btw, I don't know what proof Varys could have brought to him. Simply, we know nothing of presumed Jon's suspicious.

[PrimeRhaegar]

And where exactly does the author say that he is the real deal? The characters who claim either have no way of knowing (JC) or are notorious liars (Varys and Illyrio). That's not exactly what I'd call reliable sources.

thats exactly my point unless the author comes out and says it i will not say he is fake. I do get what your saying about not trusting jon con and varys though

[Mrs.Grumpy]

D'oh. I don't even believe Varys' story about his castration why should I trust him about the baby swamp? Plus, there's a ton of evidence that led us to believe Aegon is a Blackfyre.