Show us that Aegon VI is really Aegon

[TheCrannogDweller]

I think you're approaching this the wrong way, but that's typical when discussing theories regarding the books. Instead of looking for 'proof' that Griff is a fake or a real Targ, let's instead look at things from the perspective of the author, you know the little fat guy.

Why was 'Aegon' introduced to us? What purpose does he serve in the story? To me that seems pretty obvious, Martin had originally intended to write a short trilogy, but due to the books massive popularity that has been extended out to a seven, or maybe an eight volume epic. This presented the well known problem of what the hell to do with Dany while he wrote about the rest of Westeros, hence the very long Meereen storyline. But having made her Queen of her own city, and presented all the challenges she has gone through what could possibly make her abandon all that and high tail it back to Westeros so the story can proceed? IMO that's Griff/Aegon.

Next what possible reason would Martin have to make Aegon a real Targ, since it's already a given that Dany and him will be fighting it out for the IT? So Dany is going to go to war with her own nephew, deny his legitimate claim that clearly exceeds her own? So MArtin will give us Dany the bitch and kinslayer? Not very likely IMO. Westeros does not need three legitimate Targs- Dany, Jon and Aegon.

Lastly, and this goes back to Illryio and Varys, what on earth would those two be doing putting a 'good' Targ on the IT? I mean seriously? For all we know of them, a couple of extremely shady foreigners who have no cultural or familial relationship to Westeros, deciding to nurture and support the rightful King through a sense of altruism and love of country? Not bloody likely and not how GRRM has written their characters. Reading the books I get the impression that these two are engaged in a very complex and dark plot, their motivations can be guessed at but it has nothing to do with supporting the rightful King.

That's a nice post and you certainly raise some fair points and present an interesting point of view.

However, him being fake doesn't really matter to Dany. What matters is if she believes that he is fake.

Also, even if she believes he is right, she has gone a long way since page 1. She is the mother of dragons now. Why would she bow to any other Targaryen, true or otherwise?

Speaking of Varys - yes, his motives are quite difficult to discern. For what is worth, I tend to compare him to Bloodraven - they held the same position in court and were hated and despised in the same way. And IMO, Bloodraven did all he did for the good of the Realm.

[Facebookless Man]

As for the first argument, you simply don't need to introduce a new character to force Daenerys to move. In fact she's already realizing she should get her priorities sorted. Throwing a new Targ, fake or real, into the story just for that purpose would be worse than pointless.

As for the second argument, forcing Daenerys to face her dark side and having her embrace her self-serving, power-hungry motives is actually VERY GRRM.

And lastly, whatever game Illyrio and Varys are playing is going to require a lot of explaining. Saying that putting a real Aegon on the throne automatically equates to being romantic Targaryen loyalists is a bit disingenuous from someone whose alternative explanation relies on a rather imaginative interpretation of the text.

[Weirwood Druid]

1. The Mad King demanded Elia and her children stay at the Red Keep as hostages to ensure Dorne would support them even though they were losing the war. Why would she decline an opportunity to save her child?

2. I think this is the best argument for Aegon being real. Jon Con was deeply in love with Rhaegar. He would not forget his face. I don't think a child - even a Blackfyre - with passing Targaryen looks would fool him. Jon must see Rhaegar's features in the boy's face.

Maybe she didn't trust Varys, seeing his connection with Aerys. Maybe she also wanted Varys to save Rhaenys or the deal wouldn't go through. Most likely however she would be desperate enough to accept Vary's offer.

[butterbumps!]

(I'm paraphrasing your questions so that it's easier to follow, Corbon)

Why do you have to come up with a satisfactory explanation of V+I's endgame when making an argument for Aegon either way?

To clarify the comment you isolated, I think that you have to make a logical case for Varys and Illyrio's investment in Aegon as part of any argument about who Aegon really is. I don't believe we know their endgames for certain by this point. Instead, I was making an appeal for logically deduced arguments about endgames to factor in the arguments, because that was missing from the argumentation in the thread when I wrote that post. My comment was really more about how to argue the case convincingly, and that I think in order for it to be convincing either way, discussion of Varys' endgame is necessary.

Even if one takes "Aegon is real" as the default position because it's what Varys tells us, I don't believe the other "defaults" (meaning, Varys' words and actions that are also spelled out), add up very logically. I'm not saying that it is illogical to believe that Varys is pro Targ (or pro "right" Targ). I'm just saying that if we take "Aegon is real" at face value because it's what's told to us explicitly, that the other explicit aspects of this don't work extremely well in terms of logic. So, with this sentiment, I'm challenging the notion of "Aegon is real" as a "default," because the other pertinent "defaults" don't make tremendously much sense in the big picture. This is not meant as an argument against Aegon's being real; it's an argument in favor of challenging what we think are the "defaults" regardless of which position we take.

This next part is, however, an argument against "Aegon Targaryan." Posters who believe Varys is truthful about his speech to Kevan (and therefore that Aegon is real as the "default"), overlook the blatant lies Varys tells in this confession. Aegon has not actually ever "[known] what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid." Specifically, being hungry and hunted is not Aegon's story-- he's not the Targ who was hungry or hunted like this, not least of which is because no one ever knew he was actually alive.

To be honest, the speech that so many readers use to argue that Aegon is real strikes me as the opposite. Here is the passage:

"...Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm’s End and the lords of the realm gather round him.”

“Aegon?” For a moment he did not understand. Then he remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains. “Dead. He’s dead.”

“No.” The eunuch’s voice seemed deeper. “He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them.”

Varys doesn't actually confirm that Aegon, son of Rhaegar, was saved and is the very same who is now storming the east. Kevan thinks about the dashed baby in his mind only-- all he says is that Aegon "is dead," to which Varys replies, "no, he's here." Which is not a lie-- the "Aegon" who is currently storming the east is obviously not dead. It's exactly the sort of mind game Varys has played in the past, such as his answer to Ned back in aGoT about Hugh the Squire/ LF. Ned thinks Varys is talking about Hugh as Jon's poisoner, when in fact, Varys has just told him LF's the one responsible: "“There was one boy. All he was, he owed Jon Arryn, but when the widow fled to the Eyrie with her household, he stayed in King’s Landing and prospered. It always gladdens my heart to see the young rise in the world.” My point, however, is that "Aegon is real" is hardly a "default" in my opinion given the tricksy way this passage is worded, especially in light of the way Varys misleads with "technical truths" notoriously.

Perhaps they also know something of Targaryen (or other) prophecies that lend them motivation? Maybe even something that they or their little birds stole or copied etc. I think, like Littlefinger, they are deep enough players, and we see so little of their inner workings, that there is still enormous room for all sorts of potential motivations for them.

I wasn't arguing against there being a logical case for Varys to be Pro-Targ. I was only arguing that the other explicit "defaults" didn't add up. It was an appeal to stop treating "Aegon is real" as the default, since it couldn't be explained logically at face value. Which is something I think you agree with given this explanation-- not about whether it's a default, but that there might be hidden motivations like knowing a prophecy to explain why Aegon is real.

I'm not going to dismiss Varys' potential knowledge of the prophesy as an argument for his validity. It could help explain Illyrio's investment-- as we know, Illyrio is a follower of R'hllor, and might believe this kid is AAR or some such. I have trouble with this though given that if this is truly the motive, then the fact that they orchestrated chaos during the advent of apocalypse works against this. I mean, if they are working with the prophesy in mind, then it was rather counter productive to destroy the realm prior to demon invasion.

Why did I bring up the parallel to Jon?

People are using Aegon and Jon C's belief that Aegon is real as evidence for his being "real." This is like saying that Jon is actually Ned's son, because Jon, Cat, his siblings, Robert and everyone else believes he is.

I think by the time of DwD, we're "given" R+L, and see that Jon was raised believing he was someone he's not (and potentially the Targ heir at that). So when we meet Aegon, a boy raised to believe the inverse (that he's the Targ heir), I think this should raise our hackles-- we have seen already how a fake identity can be cultivated through thorough lies and cover stories. And I do strongly believe that this is a connection we're "supposed" to make-- all Varys says in favor of Aegon at the end is pretty much an endorsement of Jon, who has actually been raised in the way Varys suggests.

Why do I think that Varys and Illyrio as Pro-Targ doesn't add up?

Yes, your list is basically how I think it was supposed to work presuming the endgame was a "good" Targ ruler. The question that remains is why? Why would Varys remotely care whether there is a Targ on the throne, and further, whether that Targ is good or bad? More difficult to answer, why would Illyrio? It's the "why" that doesn't add up. Tyrion calls bullshit on Illyrio when they meet, which is a clue for us that Illyrio is not being straightforward about wanting a "good Targ" as his end.

<shrug> And I think thats a lame counter. I don't see the little birds reporting back to Illyrio - they are too much tools without enough agency for that, and Illyrio is too far away while Varys is their life.

I certainly don't see them reporting to anyone else.

Which means (for me) there isn't any reason for Varys to lie to Kevin. Whatever the truth, he finally had an opportunity to tell someone. There is a reason thats a stock thing for masterminds to do - its human nature. Its not easy to hold everything in always and forever. Especially not when you appear to be winning and have a safe opportunity.

Its also a great way for authors to do a little exposing of hidden things.

I'm not saying Varys must have been telling the truth. Just that I can see how he could be, and that the claims why he must be lying just don't hold water for me.

Well, as I quoted in the passage above, Varys doesn't actually confirm anything to Kevan.

That Varys' birds report to both Varys and Illyrio is not a "lame" counter. Those birds come from Illyrio. Varys and Illyrio are old pros at the game of spying. I think it's naive to think that they aren't spying on each other.

[Fire and Blood!]

Well,we do have to show ID cards in places that matter or when applying for jobs, going abroad or getting a new mobile connection or when we vote...same applies there. In fact, people of Westeros won't even believe he is a Blackfyre,even if he claims to be, until they see some proof( The Blackfyre valyrian steel Sword). So there is a need for him to prove himself.

Um actually yes you do. Try to register to vote, try to get on a plane, try to open a bank account. "I have no form of ID, but trust me, I'm this person." See how far you get.

Yes, well that is true, however there is no such thing as an ID card or a passport in Westeros so do tell me, how can anyone there prove his identity?

[Borsabil]

That's a nice post and you certainly raise some fair points and present an interesting point of view.

However, him being fake doesn't really matter to Dany. What matters is if she believes that he is fake.

Also, even if she believes he is right, she has gone a long way since page 1. She is the mother of dragons now. Why would she bow to any other Targaryen, true or otherwise?

Speaking of Varys - yes, his motives are quite difficult to discern. For what is worth, I tend to compare him to Bloodraven - they held the same position in court and were hated and despised in the same way. And IMO, Bloodraven did all he did for the good of the Realm.

I think the motivation is clear. GRRM has given Dany multiple opportunities to return to Westeros, hell she was even given an all expenses paid trip back just so the havoc she was weaving in Essos could end, and she still turned it down, why? Because Martin needed her to stay put while he developed the story. The novels weren't ready for the dragons in the west yet, they needed a slow cook rather than the fast boil as first planned. It has left him with a problem, how can he convincingly show Dany running back to Westeros when she's been so reluctant? She needs a reason, and what better than the sudden appearance of a Targ upstart with an even better claim to the throne than hers? No more waiting until 'the time is right' if you want to park that pert little ass on the iron throne it's now or never. bad enough we have a male Targ, but the only son of her eldest brother, yikes! You're damn right this will make her suddenly want to speed things up when she finds out, presumably from Tyrion. All this seems pretty obvious.

Moving on to why Dany would make war with Aegon, and this is a tricky one where opinion comes into it. If Aegon is the real deal, then no matter what Dany believes or convinces herself of, she will still be a kinslayer and a usurper, she will have done precisely the thing that Robert did to her and her family. This is the same chick who will supposedly save mankind from an impending zombie army, you really think Martin is going to go down that road? No matter how selfish, short sighted and a bad judge of character that GRRM has written her she has never been evil, and to kill her own nephew to get her hands on power is a truly evil act. So nope not buying it.

I just think of the purpose that Aegon/Griff serves in the plot, him being an impostor makes way more sense than him being the genuine article.

[Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom]

I was from the real Aegon crowd, not anymore for sometime.

Well, I was just trusting in Jon Connington's words and because Tyrion noticed. But after some evidences in Illyrio's house, I started to have my thoughts changed.

What was those children's clothes that Tyrion dressed up? We can assume a boy child lived in Illyrio's manse for a time, it can't be Viserys', because they were with Illyrio for a year when the story started and Viserys was 22 or 23 when he was in Illyrio's manse and that were boy's clothes, so it can't be Dany's

Well, I just can trust in Jon's and Varys' words and Tyrion's noticing him, no more evidences beyond that

[TheCrannogDweller]

I think the motivation is clear. GRRM has given Dany multiple opportunities to return to Westeros, hell she was even given an all expenses paid trip back just so the havoc she was weaving in Essos could end, and she still turned it down, why? Because Martin needed her to stay put while he developed the story. The novels weren't ready for the dragons in the west yet, they needed a slow cook rather than the fast boil as first planned. It has left him with a problem, how can he convincingly show Dany running back to Westeros when she's been so reluctant? She needs a reason, and what better than the sudden appearance of a Targ upstart with an even better claim to the throne than hers? No more waiting until 'the time is right' if you want to park that pert little ass on the iron throne it's now or never. bad enough we have a male Targ, but the only son of her eldest brother, yikes! You're damn right this will make her suddenly want to speed things up when she finds out, presumably from Tyrion. All this seems pretty obvious.

Moving on to why Dany would make war with Aegon, and this is a tricky one where opinion comes into it. If Aegon is the real deal, then no matter what Dany believes or convinces herself of, she will still be a kinslayer and a usurper, she will have done precisely the thing that Robert did to her and her family. This is the same chick who will supposedly save mankind from an impending zombie army, you really think Martin is going to go down that road? No matter how selfish, short sighted and a bad judge of character that GRRM has written her she has never been evil, and to kill her own nephew to get her hands on power is a truly evil act. So nope not buying it.

Actually, the seeds for Aegon's return have been planted ever since book 1.

And the reason for her spending so much time in Essos is pretty obvious - GRRM was initially planning to have a 5-year gap after Storm, remember? Then that idea was scrapped, but the reason for it didn't stop existing. He needed to give the dragons (as well as the young characters) some time to grow.

[Bael's Bastard]

I haven't decided once and for all whether I think YG is really Aegon son of Rhaegar. I think there are interesting arguments for YG not really being Rhaegar's son, but it can go either way.

I think it is possible that he is a descendent of Daemon Blackfyre, or possibly even a descendent of Aerion Brightflame, the older brother of Aegon V, whose son was passed over when Aegon V was crowned approximately 67 years before the current time in the books.

I also think it is possible that he is actually Rhaegar's son. Aegon's brutal murder has been brought up over and over for 15 years over four books, and suddenly in the fifth book we get a perspective where a young man is revealed to be hiding his supposed identity as Aegon son of Rhaegar. That is a big twist on its own, while still being something the characters and us (until we know for sure) have every reason to be skeptical of.

Although we find out pretty early in the fifth book (which, perhaps it would have been revealed early in the fourth had it remained one book), it is not just stated outright, but is revealed over a few scenes, largely due to Tyrion "picking at it," and deducing it, not because some characters are trying to sell him as Rhaegar's son to other characters.

I think YG is in a similar but not identical situation as Jon Snow, in that his identity being true does not really "fix" things.

YG can really be Rhaegar's son Aegon, and still end up not being believed or accepted by most people. His story is going to be tragic almost any way it ends up. Whether he has been lied to and used all his life, or whether he truly is Rhaegar's son who survived the sack only to be used by Varys and Illyrio and end up killed almost two decades later.

There are ways it can be made interesting either way he goes, and I don't like getting into what GRRM would or would not do as it is not my story to write, but I think the reveal that Aegon could be alive was a huge twist (even as someone that did not have to wait years between books), and I am not sure that there is another twist coming about his identity.

[Facebookless Man]

Martin didn't pull a Targ pretender out of his arse just to get Daenerys back to Westeros, that's just ludicrous.

I kind of like the idea of Aegon being Jon's mirror image though. But I'm still wondering what the point would be. Nobody is going to hand him the throne just for claiming "legitimacy". He's not even going to have it any easier than Stannis. Someone like Robb Stark would have had an easier time crowning himself if he'd played his hand right.

[Borsabil]

Actually, the seeds for Aegon's return have been planted ever since book 1.

And the reason for her spending so much time in Essos is pretty obvious - GRRM was initially planning to have a 5-year gap after Storm, remember? Then that idea was scrapped, but the reason for it didn't stop existing. He needed to give the dragons (as well as the young characters) some time to grow.

I seriously doubt that Martin was intending to write about Aegon from book 1, as at that time he was planning a trilogy. Aegon was sprung on us out of the blue, with no foreshadowing at all. Dany needs a reason to return. Of course Martin could just have her wake up one day and think 'hey best we make a move or what guys!' or he could give her a more compelling reason. Or do you think when Tyrion mentions Rhaegars 'lost' son to her she isn't going to have a kitten?

And then there is the why? Why will she make war, which seems to be a given, on Aegon if he isn't a fake? Will GRRM really make her that much of a bitch? Or will she be given compelling information from 'somewhere' that young Griff is indeed the mummers dragon?

[Borsabil]

Martin didn't pull a Targ pretender out of his arse just to get Daenerys back to Westeros, that's just ludicrous.

I kind of like the idea of Aegon being Jon's mirror image though. But I'm still wondering what the point would be. Nobody is going to hand him the throne just for claiming "legitimacy". He's not even going to have it any easier than Stannis. Someone like Robb Stark would have had an easier time crowning himself if he'd played his hand right.

Lol why is it ludicrous? Oh yeah, because you say it is?? Case closed then..

You could present a counter argument I suppose. Why do you think Martin has introduced yet another Targ pretender into the story?

[TheCrannogDweller]

I seriously doubt that Martin was intending to write about Aegon from book 1, as at that time he was planning a trilogy. Aegon was sprung on us out of the blue, with no foreshadowing at all. Dany needs a reason to return. Of course Martin could just have her wake up one day and think 'hey best we make a move or what guys!' or he could give her a more compelling reason. Or do you think when Tyrion mentions Rhaegars 'lost' son to her she isn't going to have a kitten?

And then there is the why? Why will she make war, which seems to be a given, on Aegon if he isn't a fake? Will GRRM really make her that much of a bitch? Or will she be given compelling information from 'somewhere' that young Griff is indeed the mummers dragon?

I didn't say that he planned to bring him back since book 1 - although he might have. What I said was that the seeds were there. He could've had Aegon killed in any number of ways, but he chose a way that could make people doubt the identity of the body.

And Daenerys never stopped trying to get to Westeros. The Iron Throne has been her goal for quite some time. But GRRM needed to give the dragons some time to grow up and become a weapon - hence the long story-arc in Slaver's bay.

I see that you chose not to respond to my argument about the 5-year gap.

[Facebookless Man]

Lol why is it ludicrous? Oh yeah, because you say it is?? Case closed then..

Indeed.

Which is it then, are we dissecting every word Martin puts in some (but not all) characters' mouths, or do we just assume major plot twists and characters of massive in-world importance are just thrown out there because he couldn't think of a reason why Dany would get her shit together?

[Lord of 311]

I dont have any evidence, nor have I come up with paragraphs on top of paragraphs explaining why I feel as I do. Yet I still feel Aegon is real for one sole reason: When I first read DWD I thought he was fake the wholee time and Tyrions suspicions certainly dont help. Yet it seems like everytime omething obvious is written down, Martin does the unexpected. Everyone thinks Aegon is fake, it would actually be a twist to find out that he is the true son of Rhaeger.

Eta--My spelling and grammar arent that bad. Its this PoS phone.

[James Arryn]

It would be interesting to consider Varys as interested in the PTWP angle. It would tie in some aspects, and it would be GRRMish to take the man we maybe most associate with the game and have him working towards the Song all along.

He would certainly be in a place to have information about the prophecies...he probably knew what Rgaegar was thinking. He may be more up to date on the Others than most in KL...it would also explain why things are being set in motion now.

And there's his 'voice' thing from earlier, which BB mentioned. It could be the force driving him to look beyond the immediate. We divorce him from the supernatural because he us so pragmatic, but in his world accounting for the supernatural IS pragmatic.

[Arya kiddin']

It would be interesting to consider Varys as interested in the PTWP angle. It would tie in some aspects, and it would be GRRMish to take the man we maybe most associate with the game and have him working towards the Song all along.

He would certainly be in a place to have information about the prophecies...he probably knew what Rgaegar was thinking. He may be more up to date on the Others than most in KL...it would also explain why things are being set in motion now.

And there's HS 'voice' thing from earlier. We divorce him from the supernatural because he us so pragmatic, but in his world accounting for the supernatural IS pragmatic.

You know this is a very nice line of thought. We actually do not know, like, have absolutely no inkling what Varys and Illyrio's endgame is, and I'm not buying that "good of the realm" crap too literally. The book is after all in the end going to place much more emphasis on "the song" and "the game" while being an integral part of it will always be secondary.

Yes Varys is pragmatic, but in what way? What does he know of sorcerers? A man as knowledgeable as him surely didn't just drop out on them after one incident, an incident that scarred him for life. So Varys' endgame being actually related to "the song" rather than "the game" isn't too far-fetched. :)

[James Arryn]

(a) I seriously doubt that Martin was intending to write about Aegon from book 1, (B) as at that time he was planning a trilogy.

Can you explain how b equals a in your mind?

He would also presumably have done several things earlier If it were a trilogy, like getting Dany to Westeros. I don't see how Aegon is uniquely defined by this.

[King Tyrion VIII]

I seriously doubt that Martin was intending to write about Aegon from book 1, as at that time he was planning a trilogy. Aegon was sprung on us out of the blue, with no foreshadowing at all. Dany needs a reason to return. Of course Martin could just have her wake up one day and think 'hey best we make a move or what guys!' or he could give her a more compelling reason. Or do you think when Tyrion mentions Rhaegars 'lost' son to her she isn't going to have a kitten?

And then there is the why? Why will she make war, which seems to be a given, on Aegon if he isn't a fake? Will GRRM really make her that much of a bitch? Or will she be given compelling information from 'somewhere' that young Griff is indeed the mummers dragon?

No, the trilogy idea turning into 7 books means Martin meant to write about Aegon sooner than he did. Dany's invasion was meant to happen at the end of book 2 so that means Aegon wouldve been revealed sometime in book 2.

[butterbumps!]

This is going in circles.

I agree that there is no way to prove this either way with evidence. In terms of sheer possibility, either works.

What I think is lacking, however, is a satisfactory explanation of WHY Varys (and especially Illyrio) would be so heavily invested in Aegon, Rhaeger's son.

One thing that the Aegon Blackfyre angle has going for it is plausible motivation on the part of Illyrio and Varys. If Aegon is actually Illyrio's son, and Serra was a Blackfyre descendent, it really ties together the "why" question, and there have been a number of persuasive cases made for this view, such that everything starts falling into place (I think this is the best thread with this argument in recent memory)

I don't think Apple's asking for evidentiary proof. I think she's looking for (and I'm curious too) a strong, logical case to be made for the "why" that would allow all the pieces to fall into place for the Aegon Targaryen angle as has been argued for the Blackfyre version (even if you don't agree with that view, and/ or find it speculative, it does wrap up neatly as an argument).

I think that the strongest angle to work is a magic one-- I said above that Illyrio is a follower of R'hllor, and if the two do know of and buy into the PtwP prophesy, it might be what pulls this together. I can't think of anything else that would really explain why Varys and Illyrio would be invested in Aegon, of Aerys and Rhaella's line.

I'm not sure how to explain why they'd destroy the kingdom prior to the Other invasion if this is actually the case. You'd think that the chaos brought by the Other invasion would be what primes the kingdom to accept "the PtwP," that would rally behind their chosen leader to beat back the foes (no complicated Dothraki invasion to gum up the works, and no wars to drain the realm's resources).

Amazing post Butterbumps! Your post is progress on a topic that probably hasnt seen any for a long time.

Oh thank you!