Show us that Aegon VI is really Aegon

[King Tyrion VIII]

(I'm paraphrasing your questions so that it's easier to follow, Corbon)

To clarify the comment you isolated, I think that you have to make a logical case for Varys and Illyrio's investment in Aegon as part of any argument about who Aegon really is. I don't believe we know their endgames for certain by this point. Instead, I was making an appeal for logically deduced arguments about endgames to factor in the arguments, because that was missing from the argumentation in the thread when I wrote that post. My comment was really more about how to argue the case convincingly, and that I think in order for it to be convincing either way, discussion of Varys' endgame is necessary.

Even if one takes "Aegon is real" as the default position because it's what Varys tells us, I don't believe the other "defaults" (meaning, Varys' words and actions that are also spelled out), add up very logically. I'm not saying that it is illogical to believe that Varys is pro Targ (or pro "right" Targ). I'm just saying that if we take "Aegon is real" at face value because it's what's told to us explicitly, that the other explicit aspects of this don't work extremely well in terms of logic. So, with this sentiment, I'm challenging the notion of "Aegon is real" as a "default," because the other pertinent "defaults" don't make tremendously much sense in the big picture. This is not meant as an argument against Aegon's being real; it's an argument in favor of challenging what we think are the "defaults" regardless of which position we take.

This next part is, however, an argument against "Aegon Targaryan." Posters who believe Varys is truthful about his speech to Kevan (and therefore that Aegon is real as the "default"), overlook the blatant lies Varys tells in this confession. Aegon has not actually ever "[known] what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid." Specifically, being hungry and hunted is not Aegon's story-- he's not the Targ who was hungry or hunted like this, not least of which is because no one ever knew he was actually alive.

To be honest, the speech that so many readers use to argue that Aegon is real strikes me as the opposite. Here is the passage:

Varys doesn't actually confirm that Aegon, son of Rhaegar, was saved and is the very same who is now storming the east. Kevan thinks about the dashed baby in his mind only-- all he says is that Aegon "is dead," to which Varys replies, "no, he's here." Which is not a lie-- the "Aegon" who is currently storming the east is obviously not dead. It's exactly the sort of mind game Varys has played in the past, such as his answer to Ned back in aGoT about Hugh the Squire/ LF. Ned thinks Varys is talking about Hugh as Jon's poisoner, when in fact, Varys has just told him LF's the one responsible: "“There was one boy. All he was, he owed Jon Arryn, but when the widow fled to the Eyrie with her household, he stayed in King’s Landing and prospered. It always gladdens my heart to see the young rise in the world.” My point, however, is that "Aegon is real" is hardly a "default" in my opinion given the tricksy way this passage is worded, especially in light of the way Varys misleads with "technical truths" notoriously.

I wasn't arguing against there being a logical case for Varys to be Pro-Targ. I was only arguing that the other explicit "defaults" didn't add up. It was an appeal to stop treating "Aegon is real" as the default, since it couldn't be explained logically at face value. Which is something I think you agree with given this explanation-- not about whether it's a default, but that there might be hidden motivations like knowing a prophecy to explain why Aegon is real.

I'm not going to dismiss Varys' potential knowledge of the prophesy as an argument for his validity. It could help explain Illyrio's investment-- as we know, Illyrio is a follower of R'hllor, and might believe this kid is AAR or some such. I have trouble with this though given that if this is truly the motive, then the fact that they orchestrated chaos during the advent of apocalypse works against this. I mean, if they are working with the prophesy in mind, then it was rather counter productive to destroy the realm prior to demon invasion.

People are using Aegon and Jon C's belief that Aegon is real as evidence for his being "real." This is like saying that Jon is actually Ned's son, because Jon, Cat, his siblings, Robert and everyone else believes he is.

I think by the time of DwD, we're "given" R+L, and see that Jon was raised believing he was someone he's not (and potentially the Targ heir at that). So when we meet Aegon, a boy raised to believe the inverse (that he's the Targ heir), I think this should raise our hackles-- we have seen already how a fake identity can be cultivated through thorough lies and cover stories. And I do strongly believe that this is a connection we're "supposed" to make-- all Varys says in favor of Aegon at the end is pretty much an endorsement of Jon, who has actually been raised in the way Varys suggests.

Yes, your list is basically how I think it was supposed to work presuming the endgame was a "good" Targ ruler. The question that remains is why? Why would Varys remotely care whether there is a Targ on the throne, and further, whether that Targ is good or bad? More difficult to answer, why would Illyrio? It's the "why" that doesn't add up. Tyrion calls bullshit on Illyrio when they meet, which is a clue for us that Illyrio is not being straightforward about wanting a "good Targ" as his end.

Well, as I quoted in the passage above, Varys doesn't actually confirm anything to Kevan.

That Varys' birds report to both Varys and Illyrio is not a "lame" counter. Those birds come from Illyrio. Varys and Illyrio are old pros at the game of spying. I think it's naive to think that they aren't spying on each other.

Amazing post Butterbumps! Your post is progress on a topic that probably hasnt seen any for a long time.

[James Arryn]

I'm not sure how to explain why they'd destroy the kingdom prior to the Other invasion if this is actually the case. You'd think that the chaos brought by the Other invasion would be what primes the kingdom to accept "the PtwP," that would rally behind their chosen leader to beat back the foes (no complicated Dothraki invasion to gum up the works, and no wars to drain the realm's resources).

This does not trouble me, tbh. Presumably if Rhaegar or Aegon had been in place in the Red Akeem it would not be necessary. Varys did try to prevent the KL takeover. He may have come to bitterly regret his failure since. But if the PTWP is the key to defeating the Others, getting him in place is paramount.

So then consider the issue from Varys' POV, with that priority, and with his tools to try and effect same. This would be the way he'd go about things. He can't lead an army to crush Robert and restore the Targ line, but he can work towards a place and time into which the PTWP can do that himself, and set the table for him. This would be an exercise in realpolitik on behalf of the bigger picture.

[brAnthelAstgreenseer]

they call him Aegon in the 5th book so i think we all can see he is named Aegon.

[Facebookless Man]

I'm pretty sure that settles it.

[butterbumps!]

This does not trouble me, tbh. Presumably if Rhaegar or Aegon had been in place in the Red Akeem it would not be necessary. Varys did try to prevent the KL takeover. He may have come to bitterly regret his failure since. But if the PTWP is the key to defeating the Others, getting him in place is paramount.

So then consider the issue from Varys' POV, with that priority, and with his tools to try and effect same. This would be the way he'd go about things. He can't lead an army to crush Robert and restore the Targ line, but he can work towards a place and time into which the PTWP can do that himself, and set the table for him. This would be an exercise in realpolitik on behalf of the bigger picture.

I wonder if the strongest argument for this might be that Varys doesn't know how imminent the Long Night is. I mean, I understand some degree of chaos should be planted to create a vacuum for Aegon to fill, but Varys really outdoes himself, wouldn't you say? And, I mean, by the epilogue, the conditions are more than primed for Aegon to come in and rally the realm against the Others without needing Kevan and Pycelle's deaths. Winter has just been announced as per the raven, so the foreign invaders are going to arrive, foreign invasions are the best way to unify a realm, and there's still enough of a power struggle that a chosen one could emerge without those other deaths.

I'm not sure what to make of this point, but I've never seen it discussed. The point was raised in the other Aegon thread about "why now" in terms of killing Pycelle. Was the white winter raven a signal of sorts to Varys to move forward? (I don't mean from the Citadel, I mean in terms of Varys' own timeline-- was he waiting for winter). I have nothing but wild speculation about what that could mean, but it is quite curious-- when considering the magic angle-- that Varys "last stand" occurs while the message that winter's come is in the window.

ETA: one other issue wrt a problem with the PtwP notion: Aegon was decidedly not taught anything about prophesies, Azor Ahai, the Long Night or R'hllor-- it's a septa he has, not a priest. Wouldn't this work against a magical aspect in Varys backing Aegon as the PtwP?

[James Arryn]

Some of it could depend on how central to ultimate victory his reading of the prophecy makes the PTWP.

Like, if it's get him and we prevail, don't and we lose...well I can see Varys putting as many eggs in that basket as possible. Particularly if in the past he hedged between fate and present with regards to Rgaegar/Aerys, and now blames himself for where that lead. So, yeah, without more chaos Aegon might win...but I can see him doing everything he can to make that even more likely. If he believes Aegon is the key to the Others, he'll be less concerned with what tools Aegon has to fight them than with actually getting him to the fight.

[Pyrrhus]

Well, he has silver hair, purple eyes, and he's with a former hand, and good friend of Prince Rhaegar. The evidence says he's probably Aegon, so it's your job to prove he isn't. Until that time, Aegon is Aegon. Sorry to rain on your parade, but there's more evidence to say he's Aegon than to say he isn't, so it isn't our job to prove he's real, it's your job to prove he's fake. Good luck

[butterbumps!]

Some of it could depend on how central to ultimate victory his reading of the prophecy makes the PTWP.

Like, if it's get him and we prevail, don't and we lose...well I can see Varys putting as many eggs in that basket as possible. Particularly if in the past he hedged between fate and present with regards to Rgaegar/Aerys, and now blames himself for where that lead. So, yeah, without more chaos Aegon might win...but I can see him doing everything he can to make that even more likely. If he believes Aegon is the key to the Others, he'll be less concerned with what tools Aegon has to fight them than with actually getting him to the fight.

Well, ok, I can run with this. Let's assume that Varys is going full throttle to absolutely ensure the PtwP is in power.

How can one account for the lack of preparedness we see wrt the Long Night and battling Others in Aegon's training? Aegon's training, and what Varys highlights to Kevan in the end, are all about benevolent leadership. If the notion of tPtwP is truly on the forefront of Varys' mind, surely a hint of this would have emerged somewhere, right? Wouldn't Jon Con think of Aegon as more than his king in this circumstance?

Well, he has silver hair, purple eyes, and he's with a former hand, and good friend of Prince Rhaegar. The evidence says he's probably Aegon, so it's your job to prove he isn't. Until that time, Aegon is Aegon. Sorry to rain on your parade, but there's more evidence to say he's Aegon than to say he isn't, so it isn't our job to prove he's real, it's your job to prove he's fake. Good luck

Oh, yes. Sort of like how Jon's grey eyes, brown hair and the fact that Cat- Ned's wife- thinks he's Ned's son means that Jon is Ned's son.

[Maxpey]

It would let the rebels know that there were still loose ends out there in the form of Targ heirs, so I get the need for a swap versus smuggling.

Still, it's strange that Elia would be in the nursery clinging to a fake rather than in Rhaenys' room when the attacks began.

I can make an argument for this I think: No one suspected that Tywin would have Elia and both children slaughtered-- it surprised everyone, including Jaime. Let's suppose that the pisswater baby was swapped not because they expected the infanta to be killed, but rather taken prisoner. It's possible that Varys convinced Elia to switch babies with the promise that he could conjure support for Aegon off away from KL to raise the Targ dynasty again, but in order to do so, she'd have to raise the sub as her own to keep the suspicion down.

If this was the plan-- that the swap would happen not to save life of the babies (because killing kids like this wasn't usual prior to this sack) but to keep an heir safe in case of royal imprisonment to rise again at some point-- then it could explain why Elia would keep up the lie in the nursey with the fake, and not be rushing to her real child.

The Elia question is difficult to answer.

One explanation is that Elia believed that Varys had a plan of action for Rhaenys as well but Varys was unable to get to Rhaenys in time.

Another explanation is that perhaps Varys never had a plan for Rhaenys but instead lied to Elia about it in order to get her to go along with the Aegon swap.

Just throwing these ideas out there.

[Pyrrhus]

Oh, yes. Sort of like how Jon's grey eyes, brown hair and the fact that Cat- Ned's wife- thinks he's Ned's son means that Jon is Ned's son.

That argument would work if I bought into the R+L=J theory. I don't. Jon is Ned's son.

[James Arryn]

ETA: one other issue wrt a problem with the PtwP notion: Aegon was decidedly not taught anything about prophesies, Azor Ahai, the Long Night or R'hllor-- it's a septa he has, not a priest. Wouldn't this work against a magical aspect in Varys backing Aegon as the PtwP?

I don't see that as necessary, either. The PTWP is a hero serving a function, not a Maester predicting himself. He's there to lead the charge against the night, not have an academic understanding of what signs people in the past have seen to predict how he'll do it. If he's the guy, he'll do it because he's the guy. And the task of getting the IT is daunting enough without training him in specifics for the next struggle, such as it is?

The Targs have been interested for a while, and they never discussed R'hllor, too. Mostly no one seems sure where the prophecy even comes from, so the R'hllor version may not be Varys' or more accurate than the Targs'. It would be funny to think of Illyrio and The Spider having theological debates.

[Targaryen_Rubies]

Well, ok, I can run with this. Let's assume that Varys is going full throttle to absolutely ensure the PtwP is in power.

How can one account for the lack of preparedness we see wrt the Long Night and battling Others in Aegon's training? Aegon's training, and what Varys highlights to Kevan in the end, are all about benevolent leadership. If the notion of tPtwP is truly on the forefront of Varys' mind, surely a hint of this would have emerged somewhere, right? Wouldn't Jon Con think of Aegon as more than his king in this circumstance?

Question: If Varys is trying to put tPtwP on the throne then why would he indulge Aerys's paranoia? Barristan remarks how Varys whispered in Aerys's ear and Aerys believed that Rhaegar was plotting to overthrow him, so then why didn't Varys help Rhaegar overthrow him, if it was true. tPtwP is prophesized as coming from Aerys and Rhaella which means it's not them and, if Aegon truly is Rhaegar's, then sometime before the sack Varys must have found out that Aegon was tPtwP so then why not remove the mad king from power (not kill him) as he would only descend into further madness and cause harm to the realm, that must prepare for the war against the others, and place the relatively sane Targaryen on the throne since the line continues in him? Apologies if this looks jumbled.

[butterbumps!]

I don't see that as necessary, either. The PTWP is a hero serving a function, not a Maester predicting himself. He's there to lead the charge against the night, not have an academic understanding of what signs people in the past have seen to predict how he'll do it. If he's the guy, he'll do it because he's the guy. And the task of getting the IT is daunting enough without training him in specifics for the next struggle, such as it is?

The Targs have been interested for a while, and they never discussed R'hllor, too. Mostly no one seems sure where the prophecy even comes from, so the R'hllor version may not be Varys' or more accurate than the Targs'. It would be funny to think of Illyrio and The Spider having theological debates.

Well, I do kind of see that as a major problem.

If the assertion is that Varys and Illyrio are so devout in their belief of the PtwP that they'd go through the trouble of a baby swap and grooming the PtwP, it makes no sense that they would not prepare him for this role and not teach him anything about the myth or the like.

They are going through a lot of trouble preparing Aegon as the ideal leader-- an ideal peacetime leader, mind. If the whole reason they are doing this is because they think this kid will be a supernatural savior of the world, then they'd be doing a really half-assed job by not looking into what this actually will entail and train him for it. Right now it looks like Aegon's been trained for what needs to happen after the Long Night.

That's the issue-- if we're saying that the PtwP is so important to Varys and Illyrio that they'd go through all this trouble to get the PtwP in place, then it necessarily follows that they have some belief that the PtwP is critical for a purpose, and further, that they know what this purpose is supposed to be since they are so committed to propping up Aegon.

I'm not talking about teaching Aegon academic theories about the myth. I'm saying that if someone is that sure that "a PtwP" is so important they are willing to go out of their way like this, then it's somewhat requisite that this someone will have a basic idea of why it's important, and what preparations are needed to make sure there's success, right? The fact that it doesn't seem to be the case that Aegon or Jon Con have any notion of going to the Wall or that the real enemy is darkness/ cold speaks against this, I'd think. And certainly, in the case of Jon Con, I think convincing him that Rhaegar believed Aegon to be the PtwP as rationale for why Varys was moved to save the boy would have really helped his case 12 years ago.

That argument would work if I bought into the R+L=J theory. I don't. Jon is Ned's son.

Splendid. At least you're consistent with these misapprehensions about evidence.

Question: If Varys is trying to put tPtwP on the throne then why would he indulge Aerys's paranoia? Barristan remarks how Varys whispered in Aerys's ear and Aerys believed that Rhaegar was plotting to overthrow him, so then why didn't Varys help Rhaegar overthrow him, if it was true. tPtwP is prophesized as coming from Aerys and Rhaella which means it's not them and, if Aegon truly is Rhaegar's, then sometime before the sack Varys must have found out that Aegon was tPtwP so then why not remove the mad king from power (not kill him) as he would only descend into further madness and cause harm to the realm, that must prepare for the war against the others, and place the relatively sane Targaryen on the throne since the line continues in him? Apologies if this looks jumbled.

I think that's what James Arryn was saying-- that if you go with the premise that Varys puts stock in the PtwP thing-- that not getting Rhaegar in place might be a great failure of his. Is that what you mean?

[The Mother of The Others]

I feel Aegon is real for one sole reason: When I first read DWD I thought he was fake the whole time and Tyrion's suspicions certainly don't help. Yet it seems like everytime something obvious is written down, Martin does the unexpected. Everyone thinks Aegon is fake, it would actually be a twist to find out that he is the true son of Rhaeger.

This is something. I remember feeling the same way, and it made me start hedging my bets. If he's fake, it's going to be tragically real/fake. (He'll be the one everyone wishes was real--with good reason, and they'll all wish Daynairiss was the false claimant. Something like that.) Consider how we're being given an obviously fake contender, with no sense of mystery to it, just a faked up contender that other characters can sniff out from the start, along with us. What the what? A late entry, this "mystery niche" character isn't going to be a mystery? Nothing swervy, no surprises coming from this guy, we know what his deal is right away? Hurrummph, I say. The "he's totally fake" people are setting themselves up for a G.R.R.M. smack to the head here.

[Queen‍‍‍‍‍‍ Alysanne‍‍™]

I do believe Aegon is fake.

However as to the point of Elia not realizing its her own son there are some possibilities that may have happened.

If Varys switched the baby without Elia realizing it, even if Elia notices its not her child she has no proof to say it isn't, most mother's will remain in a state of denial that it is their child as a defense mechanism,and try and make excuses like "I probably didn't notice etc."

So Elia would have still fought for the child even if it was fake, and probably be in denial that its a fake.

However I still think Aegon is fake based on textual evidence in ADWD.

[Targaryen_Rubies]

I think that's what James Arryn was saying-- that if you go with the premise that Varys puts stock in the PtwP thing-- that not getting Rhaegar in place might be a great failure of his. Is that what you mean?

Yes to an extent. It just seems strange that Varys would cause such chaos and bloodshed only to later put the same family in power when he could have kept that family in power by removing one figure from power.

[Queen‍‍‍‍‍‍ Alysanne‍‍™]

If Tyrion tells Dany that Aegon is fake straight out thats when we could expect a twist that he is actually the real Aegon I think.

[butterbumps!]

This is something. I remember feeling the same way, and it made me start hedging my bets. If he's fake, it's going to be tragically real/fake. (He'll be the one everyone wishes was real--with good reason, and they'll all wish Daynairiss was the false claimant. Something like that.) Consider how we're being given an obviously fake contender, with no sense of mystery to it, just a faked up contender that other characters can sniff out from the start, along with us. What the what? A late entry, this "mystery niche" character isn't going to be a mystery? Nothing swervy, no surprises coming from this guy, we know what his deal is right away? Hurrummph, I say. The "he's totally fake" people are setting themselves up for a G.R.R.M. smack to the head here.

Actually, I think it would be most interesting to find out he's a fake and have him sit the throne (or at least, get everyone to believe he's actually Aegon Targ). I don't think his fakeness hurts the story at all-- I think it actually makes things way more interesting and layered in terms of how bloodlines and claims are constantly being deconstructed in terms of their importance wrt power. I kind of think Aegon will be a fake that everyone believes is real, and suspect Jon is the actually legitimate heir that won't be recognized (for sundry reasons).

So thematically, I do find the Aegon is Fake side more consistent, especially with Varys' nebulous riddle about men's belief in where power resides.

[total1402]

OP- Well I've always thought there was something fishy about him. Its too perfect a fit and story. However, lets pretend, if Aegon isn't a Targ then it wouldn't have made sense for Varys or Illyrio to help Viserys and Daenerys. It would be in their interest to kill them off to prevent any potential rivals and I find it hard to believe that they would have given Viserys his army and then expected him to step aside quietly. Whilst with Dany if they truly did need her for legitimacy (as members of the Golden Company and JC cite as a problem) then they wouldn't have married her to Khal Drogo. It is possible that he sent them to die but then, why offer to keep Viserys in Pentos and give away Daenerys (who would be better used marrying a major noble house or Aegon himself). Plus the GC are diehard blackfryes, there is no need to lie to them about a plan involving helping the Dothraki and yet this is one of the complaints they give to Jon about the plan having been changed so often. Also, Varys told Jorah to keep Dany "watched" and warned him about the assassination attempt. Then finally we have Arya hearing him and Illyrio in the crypts talking about "the savage" and "not ready". Of course they could be just really confident they can dupe Viserys and Daenerys into pawns. Their later interest in Dany is purely because they want her dragons and armies; although I do think Illyrio is genuinely excited about the return of the dragons. I am sure there are ansawrs to these questions but at the minute their behaviour is confusing enough that they appear to have always been on Danys side and this backs up them being true Targaryens; since the Blackfyre are their ancient enemies.

[Facebookless Man]

If he's fake, it's going to be tragically real/fake. (He'll be the one everyone wishes was real--with good reason, and they'll all wish Daynairiss was the false claimant. Something like that.

Why? I keep asking and nobody answers. Who gives a fuck who the legitimate claimant is? What kind of advantage is gained by being the legitimare claimant, or people thinking you are? Being "legitimate" didn't help Rhaegar, it didn't help Viserys, it's not helping Stannis, and it won't help Aegon, real or fake. Claiming you're a Targaryen probably gets you less potential allies than claiming you're a Stark. Or am I missing something?