US Politics: Debt Teafault

[Fez]

Its being rumored that if the bill passes, the House will immediately break for recess until next week, leaving the Senate in a hell of a jam. Reid really should've gotten something passed faster.

Also, the bill may that language preventing the Treasury from using extraordinary measures in the future. I know most Democrats don't like that language, but personally I'm okay with that part. The ceiling needs to get raised at some point, might as well know in advance when the drop dead dates are. And I really don't like Treasury putting IOUs in government accounts that are supposed to have T-bills.

ETA:

There is really something about this debt ceiling fiasco that reminds me of Dr Strangelove - just replace Ripper with Cruz, and nuclear war with Federal default.

Seems like an apt comparison.

[Myrddin]

Dante - That's what all the "conservatives" I know are like in the DC area, as well as mid-Michigan and Houston, TX. Odd that you mention Hunter S. Thompson. The husband has a thing for him as well.

I just ignore the religious right crazy types as there is no reasoning with them anyway.

That's also what all the "conservatives" I know in FL, CO, and SC think as well. My personal experience isn't anything like how the media (and these threads) portray conservatives. And I even have a few guys here at work who are "active" in the Tea Party.

There is a range of views on all the issues, but the one common denominator between them all is not wanting the Federal Government to control health care because nothing efficient comes out of Washington. See the technical hiccups from the new ACA websites as an expected outcome of Washington bureaucracy.

The crazy religious rights are to be avoided as much as the cray religious left.

[Shryke]

That's also what all the "conservatives" I know in FL, CO, and SC think as well. My personal experience isn't anything like how the media (and these threads) portray conservatives. And I even have a few guys here at work who are "active" in the Tea Party.

There is a range of views on all the issues, but the one common denominator between them all is not wanting the Federal Government to control health care because nothing efficient comes out of Washington. See the technical hiccups from the new ACA websites as an expected outcome of Washington bureaucracy.

The crazy religious rights are to be avoided as much as the cray religious left.

Polling doesn't seem to agree that those crazies are marginal though.

The hiccups of the ACA website will be a distant memory soon enough. It's like you people never lived through an MMO launch or something. :p

[The Marquis de Leech]

Its being rumored that if the bill passes, the House will immediately break for recess until next week, leaving the Senate in a hell of a jam. Reid really should've gotten something passed faster.

Also, the bill may that language preventing the Treasury from using extraordinary measures in the future. I know most Democrats don't like that language, but personally I'm okay with that part. The ceiling needs to get raised at some point, might as well know in advance when the drop dead dates are. And I really don't like Treasury putting IOUs in government accounts that are supposed to have T-bills.

The Extraordinary Measures provision must be taken out, if only because it is a clear violation of separation of powers. More seriously though, it means that the next time the Republicans take the world economy hostage, they'll have locked any potential back doors for hostage rescue. Far from ensuring this never happens again, they'll have just made it more tempting a tactic.

[Shryke]

I was thinking about this too. The constitutionality is an open question, of course, but Boehner can go to court and fight to have the nation default on its debts, if he likes. That's a battle Obama should be happy to fight.

I think the prez has ruled this out, though, perhaps thinking that it's better to just have this out now then risk going through it repeatedly until he leaves office. Maybe he's right.

I think he's said he's ruled it out in order to force Congress to do it's fucking job and not rely on him to save their bacon with a last minute crazy experimental play.

And also because him doing said play would be pretty fucking bad for the markets to begin with since there'd be alot of uncertainty as the GOP's inevitable shit-flipping and the SCOTUS case will make investors nervous.

The only good result here is the debt ceiling gets raised like normal and then quietly taken out back and shot like the stupid rapid dog it is, but that's sadly the least likely outcome. But I think Obama will keep pushing the "I ain't gonna do shit" angle in order to at least force the first part of that optimal solution.

[Commodore]

Watching these manufactured crises and nick-and-dime budget negotiations is pathetic.

The shutdown is not a big deal, like 80+% of the government is still running.

There won't be a default, you can tell from the markets shrugging, despite Obama making every effort to panic them.

Whatever shitty deal they agree on won't matter big picture. Debt will continue to pile up, incomes will remain stagnant, unemployment will remain high, health premiums will continue to rise. The Fed will keep inflating the assets of the wealthy and the wealth divide will continue to grow.

To the extent Obama cares about these things, I imagine he sees GOP control of the House as the cause of and obstacle to improving them. So destroying his political opposition takes priority over the impact any deal/no deal has on the country short term.

The House GOP doesn't seem to get that Obama isn't interested in a win-win outcome near term, because that doesn't lead to a GOP House defeat in 2014.

[Myrddin]

The hiccups of the ACA website will be a distant memory soon enough. It's like you people never lived through an MMO launch or something. :P

Apparently, neither has the government. :P But they did get their newbie badge on their attempt thought.

I'll allow the government has achieved level 1 in internet administration, Unfortunately, we need a level 80 to make this work.

[Fez]

And here's the actual House GOP talking points; I like the random name-drop of Reagan.

The Extraordinary Measures provision must be taken out, if only because it is a clear violation of separation of powers. More seriously though, it means that the next time the Republicans take the world economy hostage, they'll have locked any potential back doors for hostage rescue. Far from ensuring this never happens again, they'll have just made it more tempting a tactic.

Except its become the norm these days to completely ignore the actual debt ceiling deadlines (remember, the current extension expired back in May), so we're going up against drop dead dates anyway.

ETA: It may very well be a violation of the separation of powers though, I'm not familiar with those constitutional clauses. If it is though, then a court can just strike down that part of the bill, if it becomes law.

ETA2: Those talking points make it sound like the reinsurance fee actually isn't being repealed, and some reporters are now saying that too. It seems like most people (including members of Congress, since it was Dent who said it was in) aren't actually sure of all the details here.

[slothman92]

The Extraordinary Measures provision must be taken out, if only because it is a clear violation of separation of powers. More seriously though, it means that the next time the Republicans take the world economy hostage, they'll have locked any potential back doors for hostage rescue. Far from ensuring this never happens again, they'll have just made it more tempting a tactic.

I am not sure about this making the tactic more tempting. I think the idea was floating around out there that the far right wanted to push Obama into this so they could then have a reason to try to impeach him. That is what Mark Levin was screeching about on the radio anyway.

[TrackerNeil]

TN- you think he's ruled out which action?

I am pretty sure I have read that Obama has stated there will be no platinum coins or "constitutional option"; i.e., no borrowing on his own authority.

[Inigima]

Watching these manufactured crises and nick-and-dime budget negotiations is pathetic.

The shutdown is not a big deal, like 80+% of the government is still running.

There won't be a default, you can tell from the markets shrugging, despite Obama making every effort to panic them.

Whatever shitty deal they agree on won't matter big picture. Debt will continue to pile up, incomes will remain stagnant, unemployment will remain high, health premiums will continue to rise. The Fed will keep inflating the assets of the wealthy and the wealth divide will continue to grow.

To the extent Obama cares about these things, I imagine he sees GOP control of the House as the cause of and obstacle to improving them. So destroying his political opposition takes priority over the impact any deal/no deal has on the country short term.

The House GOP doesn't seem to get that Obama isn't interested in a win-win outcome near term, because that doesn't lead to a GOP House defeat in 2014.

It shouldn't any longer, but it baffles me that you could believe these things or draw these conclusions.

First, there are still a shitload of people -- real people -- who are not being paid, some working anyway, some not. Yeah, they're going to be getting paid eventually, but those people have real fucking bills in the meantime. I guarantee it matters to them. Not everyone has comfortable savings to fall back on. The only reason more people aren't still furloughed is that it turns out people like it when the government does things and the Republicans have finally agreed to fund some of them lest the electorate vent its wrath even more thoroughly than they already have.

Second, a lot of the government is still shut down, some of it important. We've ruined years of research and halted more. Important research, health research. We're going to do the same research again since what we've done has been ruined, because it's important, so it isn't going to save any money. It's pure waste. We are unable to track on a national level the salmonella outbreak in several states; we're entering flu season and the CDC is unable to track outbreaks or help distribute vaccines. Nontrivial national security and law enforcement personnel are furloughed. Many veterans' services are running out of funds.

This has nothing to do with a GOP electoral collapse, not that we on the left aren't pleased about that. This is about ensuring the stability of the government and the economy. A process purist like you ought to be just as outraged with the Tea Party clowns' attempt to destroy both as we are. For shame.

[Shryke]

Apparently, neither has the government. :P But they did get their newbie badge on their attempt thought.

I'll allow the government has achieved level 1 in internet administration, Unfortunately, we need a level 80 to make this work.

I don't think anyone has rolled out a launch this big before, so I cut them a bit of slack. They still fucked up though, even considering that.

More importantly though, it doesn't really matter. It's a technical glitch, nothing more.

[Guest Raidne]

Watching these manufactured crises and nick-and-dime budget negotiations is pathetic.

The shutdown is not a big deal, like 80+% of the government is still running.

Right now. As of the end of next week, I won't be working anymore, and a lot of other people won't either.

Currently, my office adjudicates about 35,000 veterans' benefits appeals claims per year. Presently, there are nearly 250,000 claims on appeal (http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-09-10/politics/41934907_1_veterans-claims-va-secretary-eric-k-veterans-affairs).

I don't think shutting us down is likely to improve that number.

Having said that, much more importantly, as of November 1st, we will no longer be able to pay benefits. That's not just $250/month to somebody with tinnitus. That's full disability to a double amputee who was also blinded by a roadside bomb. That's reimbursement funds for the in-home nursing care of a Veteran dying from a service-connected disability. How are these people supposed to live? That's an unconscionable breach of the promise we made to a nation's Veterans.

OTOH, as I have said previously, I have no idea why this is so, because it wasn't an issue during any other shutdown. I think it's a result of the debt ceiling problem? The (unofficial) word around the office is that we just won't have the staff to issue the checks.

[Fragile Bird]

So, I just watched Harry Reid's speech on CNBC. Harry Reid softly sticking it into Boehner, over and over. I AM DISAPPOINT!

So the House bill takes away the president's emergency powers to fund, eh? Looks like there will be a ride off that cliff.

[Wise Fool]

So after they come to a deal and raise the debt ceiling, Republicans will loudly proclaim a victory and how the Obama administration blinked first and caved in to reason.

If they don't, then it's back to the usual: Obama is to blame for the shutdown and for the pending default, and revolution is the only real answer or else he'll force your guns to get gay married at a Mosque.

[Fez]

Well, now its being suggested that the House bill will move further to the right to try and get 217 votes, which means its absolutely DOA in the Senate if it even can pass. If it passes and the House recesses, we really will default. Reid and Obama have both said that even the bill as is would be DOA though.

The senate really needs to get its bill passed and force Boehner to finally make a choice.

[Suttree]

Daily dose of Robert Reich:

House Republicans sang "Amazing Grace" at a closed-door meeting this morning after deciding they’ll stick to their plan to alter the Affordable Care Act and risk a government default, according to Darrell Issa, a Tea Partier from California. But if they were once lost and blind, they’re giving no hint of being found and seeing what a mess they’ve created. Even when this crisis is over, further crises lie ahead unless we correct three distortions of our democracy that have allowed a minority of extremist Republicans to hold the nation hostage:

(1) Gerrymandered congressional districts have shielded the extremists from accountability to the broader public. Gerrymandering isn’t new but in recent years right-wing state legislatures have extended and perfected it. The best solution: redistricting by nonpartisan committee. Voters supported this in California; evidence suggests many voters in “red” states would now be supportive as well.

(2) Unlimite...d and often secret money from a handful of right-wing billionaires has bankrolled the extremists. Big money in politics isn’t new, either, but the Supreme Court’s disgraceful 2010 decision in “Citizen’s United vs. Federal Election Commission” opened the floodgates, and the recently-argued “McCutcheon vs. Federal Election Commission” (challenging the personal donation limits that became law in 1974) could open them wider. “Citizen’s United” must be reversed, if necessary by a constitutional amendment. And at least one of the five Republicans on the Court must be replaced by someone dedicated to preserving our democracy. In the meantime, there must be full disclosure of all contributors.

(3) Raging inequality -- with the typical family getting poorer and almost all economic gains going to a small group at the top –- has made the white working class susceptible to the extremists, financed by those seeking to entrench their privilege and power. As Justice Louis Brandeis said over a century ago when America faced a similar scourge, “We can have a democracy or we can have huge wealth in the hands of a few, but we cannot have both.”

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

I think people in this thread might be giving the Koch's a little too much credit. I doubt they're arch-capitalist evil geniuses. Yes, to a certain extent, the policies they push are beneficial to big businesses and the super-rich, but not to the point where you erode trust in the Treasury and risk the stability of financial markets. I believe that rather than being hyper-rational about their personal interests, the Kochs are actually just Ayn Randian ideologues.

[IheartTesla]

Does this mean Ted Cruz will NOT be the 2016 GOP nominee? Or has the fever yet not broken in this party?

[Inigima]

I don't think the Koch brothers orchestrated this specifically. A "brilliant puppetmasters" theory is a bit much, I think they and people like them funded a fringe group to try to push policies that suit their interests, then lost control.