NFL Week 8: End of the Weeden Dynasty

[Mexal]

You're arguing against a position nobody here is taking.

Kal does that.

[Kalbear]

Yep!

Though I'm fairly certain you were saying that about AP:

But, as I've been saying the whole time, he has shot, not he is the best or will be the best. If he churns out 5 or so more elite seasons he makes a very strong case.

He'd need a lot more than 5. AP has had one outstanding year, one great year (his second in the league, where he also fumbled like mad) and otherwise a few good but not great years. That one year isn't enough to vault him over any of the backs I named. I think that if he got two 2000-yard seasons we might be able to talk about it - but it's still tough to compare to Sweetness or the longevity of Smith, or the raw craziness of Sanders.

Sperry also said this of Megatron:

If he can keep this up for 5 more years, he goes down as the best of all time. The final career numbers don't matter as much to me, because guys like Rice and Brown stayed aruond padding theirs stats long past their primes.

I disagree. He needs to keep it up for much longer. Partially because Rice had an absurd middle of his career, and partially because Rice played in an era where it was far harder to get receiving yards than it is now.

[sperry]

Yep!

Though I'm fairly certain you were saying that about AP:

He'd need a lot more than 5. AP has had one outstanding year, one great year (his second in the league, where he also fumbled like mad) and otherwise a few good but not great years. That one year isn't enough to vault him over any of the backs I named. I think that if he got two 2000-yard seasons we might be able to talk about it - but it's still tough to compare to Sweetness or the longevity of Smith, or the raw craziness of Sanders.

Sperry also said this of Megatron:

I disagree. He needs to keep it up for much longer. Partially because Rice had an absurd middle of his career, and partially because Rice played in an era where it was far harder to get receiving yards than it is now.

I've made it very clear in almost every single post that i've made that he has LEGITIMATE CHANCE to be the greatest, not that he is or will be.

[Kalbear]

And I don't think that 5 years time is enough to say that about either Megatron or AP. Anyone has a LEGITIMATE CHANCE. Ryan Williams has a LEGITIMATE CHANCE. So does Lance Moore. I don't see it happening for either of these guys, but if it does it won't be after only 5 years.

[sperry]

And I don't think that 5 years time is enough to say that about either Megatron or AP. Anyone has a LEGITIMATE CHANCE. Ryan Williams has a LEGITIMATE CHANCE. So does Lance Moore. I don't see it happening for either of these guys, but if it does it won't be after only 5 years.

Except neither of those guys do have a legitimate chance.

As for after 5 more years for AD and Megatron, that will be after 12 years in the NFL. Like these aren't exactly controversial statements I'm making. If AD and Calvin keep up their current paces for 5 more years, both are going to be in the top 3 of every signficant category of their respective positions. Both have the physical gifts and "wow" factor needed to be included in the conversation. That being said, the difference between your "run of the mill" hall of famer, and your all time greatest is whether they can carry on high level production into their 30s. Obviously that remains to be seen, but both Peterson and Calvin Johnson have first halves of their careers that compare favorably to any of the all time greats.

[Kalbear]

but both Peterson and Calvin Johnson have first halves of their careers that compare favorably to any of the all time greats.

Peterson doesn't, really. He has one outstanding year. The rest of his career isn't particularly good compared to Smith. He doesn't have the highs of overall production that Faulk had. He doesn't have the wow factor Sanders had. And he doesn't have the longevity or repeated success that Sweetness had. That's the issue with Peterson; his earlier years are not amazingly thrilling. They're fine, but he needs a lot more than 5 years to make that case that he's better than Payton - or he needs some absurdly great years for a couple of seasons to go over the top.

And his injury history doesn't make that all that likely.

Megatron is a much more likely candidate of the two - but it's also much harder for him because Rice was so good. Rice had 14 years that he went over 1000 receiving yards in a season. Megatron currently has 4, with a 5th almost certainly. Even assuming 5 stellar years Rice will have 5 more 1000-yard seasons than him - that's pretty insane. Megatron's best year does beat Rice in yards - not by much, but it does - and his next best year beats most of Rice's - but then Rice has 6 seasons where he did better than CJ's third-best year.

Rice's records as best receiver may simply never be broken because it's just so hard to be that productive for that long. Being in the league for 14 years alone is amazing; being in it for 14 years and having star receiving seasons is crazy. Now, we might start talking about CJ the way we talk about Barry Sanders - that he was one of the best players ever on a fairly shitty team, and if it wasn't for that he'd be hosed. That's a possibility - but I don't think it'll have much weight given how great Rice was in a time when you would get absolutely hammered going over the middle and cornerbacks could basically punch you in the gut every play.

[sperry]

Peterson doesn't, really. He has one outstanding year. The rest of his career isn't particularly good compared to Smith. He doesn't have the highs of overall production that Faulk had. He doesn't have the wow factor Sanders had. And he doesn't have the longevity or repeated success that Sweetness had. That's the issue with Peterson; his earlier years are not amazingly thrilling. They're fine, but he needs a lot more than 5 years to make that case that he's better than Payton - or he needs some absurdly great years for a couple of seasons to go over the top.

And his injury history doesn't make that all that likely.

Megatron is a much more likely candidate of the two - but it's also much harder for him because Rice was so good. Rice had 14 years that he went over 1000 receiving yards in a season. Megatron currently has 4, with a 5th almost certainly. Even assuming 5 stellar years Rice will have 5 more 1000-yard seasons than him - that's pretty insane. Megatron's best year does beat Rice in yards - not by much, but it does - and his next best year beats most of Rice's - but then Rice has 6 seasons where he did better than CJ's third-best year.

Rice's records as best receiver may simply never be broken because it's just so hard to be that productive for that long. Being in the league for 14 years alone is amazing; being in it for 14 years and having star receiving seasons is crazy. Now, we might start talking about CJ the way we talk about Barry Sanders - that he was one of the best players ever on a fairly shitty team, and if it wasn't for that he'd be hosed. That's a possibility - but I don't think it'll have much weight given how great Rice was in a time when you would get absolutely hammered going over the middle and cornerbacks could basically punch you in the gut every play.

I think you also have to consider that Emmitt Smith was running behind what was probably the greatest offensive line in the history of the NFL and playing with multiple other hall of famers on offense, and an absolutely fantastic defense that built leads and encouraged running the ball. He got way more carries than Peterson does, but averaged lower YPC.

Both Payton and Sanders had first 6 years quite comparable to Peterson's. Regardless, we'll see where he goes from here. Plenty of running backs run out of steam at age 29 or so.

[Rockroi]

Yeah so, when I wrote my very long post, I knew that it would generate discussion.

I was just 100% wrong about which part; I never thought saying anything about Calvin Johnson would be so strange.

I should have been more precise in my language. First, I should have been clearer that for Johnson to be considered "one of the top 5 WRs who ever played" I should have added in "Assuming he maintains some pace similar to his last several seasons with Stafford." That was 100% my bad; I should have been clearer. Everything I say about Johnson assumes that he stays on some sort of good pace.

Second, I never meant to say he would end up better than Rice and for a lot of the reasons we have been saying- his style is not conducive to that; he has never had the QB support Rice had; the start of his career was underwhelming etc.

I have been fiddling with some of the numbers and HOPE to have something more substantial by later this evening but not sure.

However, lets assume Johnson puts together a season something along the lines of 1650 yards (a little off his current pace) and 10TDs (slightly under his pace for the last two seasons' average). If he does this this season and every season thereafter for 5 more seasons.... if you add up the numbers (and I know its a BIG 'if' that JOnson can maintain that up to when he is 33 and then have decent numbers after that.... ) he would be, statistically, one of the best WRs ever.

And just to curb out this discussion, I think AP is really good, but much like LT, his body of work will not be on the same level as Payton, Smith or Sanders I am VERY partial to Barry Sanders because, to be, Barry is the closest thing the NFL has ever had to Bruce Li - a guy who does things you don't think are actually possible but you saw it so it MUST be true... and yet ....

[Prince of the North]

Kal,

Rice played in the NFL for 20 seasons, right? Or am I missing something? I agree with everything you're saying. I think Megatron is awesome but I just don't believe that he'll end up being as consistently awesome for as long as Rice was (and I'll be happy to be proved wrong). It's just that I thought he was in the league longer than 14 years.

[Jace, Extat]

So I said a number of times (on this board, I'm sure) that the Texans would miss the playoffs and the Colts would win the SFC South. Just sayin'

[trickster]

One more candidate for the all ACL team. Sidney Rice out for the year

http://nfl.si.com/2013/10/29/sidney-rice-injury-seattle-seahawks/?sct=hp_t2_a3&eref=sihp

It's all on Percy Harvin's hip now. Otherwise Seattle is stuck with the offense that we saw @ St. Louis.

ETA: and the hits just keep coming for NE. Vollmer done for the season.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/10/29/patriots-announce-sebastian-vollmer-is-done-for-the-season/

[Kalbear]

Rice played in the NFL for 20 seasons, right? Or am I missing something? I agree with everything you're saying. I think Megatron is awesome but I just don't believe that he'll end up being as consistently awesome for as long as Rice was (and I'll be happy to be proved wrong). It's just that I thought he was in the league longer than 14 years.

He did - but he had 14 1000-yard seasons in that time.

[Kalbear]

So I said a number of times (on this board, I'm sure) that the Texans would miss the playoffs and the Colts would win the SFC South. Just sayin'

Have you also tracked all the things you were wrong about as well? Just sayin.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Have you also tracked all the things you were wrong about as well? Just sayin.

These threads only go 20 pages. Whose got that kind of time?

[Jace, Extat]

Have you also tracked all the things you were wrong about as well? Just sayin.

:laugh:

Being wrong about Trent Richardson and putting together an awful fantasy team isn't as much fun to talk about.

[Kalbear]

For a while I went back and looked at my predictions and rated myself - because while it's neat to see where you called it right, it's also really intellectually dishonest to only do it when you're right. I hate that folks like Clayton are completely not called on their wrong predictions and just move on like 'of course that's what I thought'.

So yeah, I predicted Wilson would be the starter of the Seahawks when he got drafted - but I also predicted crazy things like Oakland doing well and Denver sucking last year.

[sperry]

For a while I went back and looked at my predictions and rated myself - because while it's neat to see where you called it right, it's also really intellectually dishonest to only do it when you're right. I hate that folks like Clayton are completely not called on their wrong predictions and just move on like 'of course that's what I thought'.

So yeah, I predicted Wilson would be the starter of the Seahawks when he got drafted - but I also predicted crazy things like Oakland doing well and Denver sucking last year.

I do find it annoying that in the sports media there is no reward for success or demotion for failure. You keep on prognosticating til the end of time regardless of your success or lack therof in actually making the predictions you're paid to make. Seems like the only way to get fired by ESPN is to call someone an "Uncle Tom" at a public function, or show pictures of your wang to women on a flight.

[Jace, Extat]

Fair enough, while I was not trying to pretend that I'm always right, I'll admit that it was a very self congratulatory comment.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

And seeing as how we are at the halfway point of the season, how bout some Westeros prognostications that we can all put down in stone and refer back to at season's end? I'll go first if ya'll are game...

NFC West: S.F. as divisional champ with SEA as a wildcard

NFC East: DAL as divisional champ and no wildcard

NFC South: N.O. as divisional champ with CAR as wildcard

NFC North: GB and no wildcard

AFC West: KC as divisional champ with DEN as wildcard

AFC East: NE as divisional champ with no wildcard

AFC South: IND as divisional champ no wildcard

AFC North: CIN as divisional champ with BAL as wildcard

[Rockroi]

Here are Calvin Johnson’s numbers as of today, about half way through his 7^th season:

99 Games, 535 rec for 8657 yards, 16.2 yds per rec, 61 TDs and around 87.4 yards per game

Other WR we have been discussing after their first 7 seasons (and just remember that every one of these guys will have had ½ more of a season under their belts than Johnson because this season is still going on)

Jerry Rice

108 G, 526 Rec, 9072 yards, 17.2 Y/R, 93 TDs, 84 yds per game

Randy Moss

109 G, 574 Rec, 9142 yards, 15.9 per rec, 90 TDs, 83.9 yds per game

Lance Alworth

82 G, 394 Rec, 7973 Yards, 20 yards per rec, 73 TDs 97.2 Yards per game

Terrell Owens

106 G 512 Rec, 7470, 14.6 Y/R, 72 TDs, 70.5 Y/G

Andre Rison

110 G, 522 Rec, 7154 Yards, 13.7 Y/R, 63 TDs 65 Y/G

Michael Irvin

96 G, 416 rec, 6935 yds, 16.7 y/r, 40 TDs, 72.2 Yds per game

Andre Reed

106 G, 469 Rec, 6466 Yards, 13.8 Y/R, 49 TDs, 61 Y/G

Cris Carter

101 G, 327 Rec 4577 Yds, 14 Y/Rec, 42 TDs, 45.3 Yds per game

Tim Brown

96 G, 316 Rec, 4734 Yds, 15 y/rec, 36 Tds, 49.3 Yds per game

Okay so a few things:

Obviously, the major thing to discuss is the bottle of HGH in Peyton Manning’s locker 400 pound gorilla in the middle of the room: different times, different eras, almost different games. The game CMegatron is in, today, is different than the one in 1993 and even 2005 TO SAY NOTHING of 1961.

However…

For starters, its pretty remarkable the gap between Moss and Rice at this point in their career and everyone else. Only two guys on the list with 90 TDs; only two guys over 9K in yards.

Second, What’s up with Lance Alworth- guy’s numbers are just as good as others, but did so in like 25 less games. Also, he was a RB as well so he was everywhere.

Unfortunately for Alworth, his 7^th season was his last great season- he only caught for 1000 yards once more, and only for appx 1300 yards aqnd 8 TDs for his last 3 seasons COMBINED.

Andre Rison had a similar trajectory- in fact by year 7, his decline was in progress: from 1995 (his 7^th season) to the end of his career in 200, Rison only caught for 1000 yards ONCE and only had 50 or more receptions once (same season).

By contrast, Irvin’s 8^th season was his best- so his best stuff was still to come- season 8 saw career highs in yards, TDs and receptions. In fact, part of the reason Irvin’s numbers are so pedestrian at this pont was that his career got off to a bad start because of the Cowboys team that first acquired him.

Rice, Carter and Moss also had their best seasons AFTER 30- fuck, Rice’s best season was when he was 34- 122 receptions, 1850 yards and 15 TDs Cris Carter had, practically, a whole other CAREER after his 7^th season- his two best seasons were his 8^th and 9^th – 122 rec a piece and 1250 and 1370 yards rec with 24 TDs total – Caretr was a MONSTER from his 7^th season onward- he caught for 1000 yards EVERY SINGLE SEASON from 1993-2000.

Moss is all over the place – every season in MINN was amazing, but his 7^th season was bad and his last in Min; he had two forgettable years iin Oakland before Tom Brady made him a legend. After that? Train. Wreck. Never caught for 500 yards in a season and had 8 TDs TOTAL.

Meanwhile, Reed’s career was the most consistent- he had his most productive seasons in the very middle of his career – between his 5^th and 12 seasons.

Brown’s career and Owen’s career also had tremendous staying power after their 7^th seasons. Owens’ career is very similar but he was consistently BETTER – his best season WAS his 7^th, but not by a lot and his 5^th-13^th seasons all look alike- all are 1000 yard seasons but one and 7 double-digit TD seasons.

Brown’s numbers were also great from 19959 (8^th season) to 2002 – EVERY SEASON , Brown had 1000 yards and had 9 or more TDS in 5 of those seasons. Brown also… started all but ONE game from 1993 (his 6^th season) to 2003.

So… what does all this mean for Johnson.

Well, for starters, his health is going to be a question. EVERYTHING is predicated on “… if he stays healthy….”

Megatron’s style is not like Rice or Carter’s and he seems to be far more like Owens – they have similar body types and similar uses in their offenses.

And its odd because Johnson’s numbers are much closer to Rice and Moss’ than anyone else’s- he will almost assuredly have 9000 yards by the end of the season; his 87.4 yards per game is the best on the list outside of Alworth’s insane numbers. His Y/Rec trail only Rice, Alworth and Irvin and he’s really right there with them all.

Almost all these receivers had consistent years AFTER their 7^th- Reed, Owens, and Brown were all in the MIDDLE of tremendously productive years and not at the end.. Almost all of the receivers listed- save Rison, Moss and Alworth –still had many great years- if not career highs- ahead of them. Moss, Rice and Irvin actually had BETTER years ahead of them. Only Rison (already in decline), Moss (head case) and Alworth (peak) showed tremendous variance and Moss was able to rebound.

If Megatron has the following stat-spread for the next 6 years of his career:

80-100 rec for 1200-1650 yards per season, 8 TDs… if he does that 6 times … he’s going to have stats VERY close to Rice and Moss. Now, while that IS a big if ... if he has a career path ANYTHING CLOSE to the other guys mentioned... its likely he will hit that mark and have a few more amazing seasons. If that is the standard… Megatron really will be in that rarified air as one of the best WRs in NFL history, Top 5 if not Top 3… or better…