R+L =J v.135

[Ygrain]

I agree. Also, am I the only one who finds the 'Maester Yandel is merely reporting based on historical records on events of the time' bit slightly... ambiguous?

Nope. Someone writing on the basis of historical reports means neither that he is right nor that they are true.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

... and now everything hinges on the KG being aware of the decree or not. Because if they didn't know about it, it changes nothing.

The way I see it, there are a few options:

- They didn't know, and thus, couldn't act it it, even if they had wanted to

- They heard about it, but ignored it

- They heard about it, but believed the rebels were drawing conclusions. Of course after Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon have died, Viserys is the only heir left, if you don't know about Jon. Two weeks for the news in Viserys to reach the three KG might be too little, so they would most likely hear only after Aerys had died. Were they specifically told that before he had died, Aerys had named V his new heir, or did they just hear "V is the new heir" after the others had died...

The wording used to tell them, if they had been told at all, matters as well.

[Kingmonkey]

FWIW I think we are running out of purpose here. There appears to be too little common ground on basic reading and understanding of the text and contexts.

Yep. Sorry but when I read you saying Ashara has more of a connection with the person who went up to her and said he knows someone who'd like a dance with her than the person she actually danced with, or that Barristan would interpret Ned being forced by political reality to marry someone else as tantamount to abandoning a woman he'd never been betrothed too, or that Barristan couldn't respect someone for being in the same class he's put Dany in of people who'd had ill-advised affairs, I honestly don't even know how to address the points.

As you say, too little common ground, we seem to have radically different readings of Ned and Barristan! Happy to chalk this one up to agreeing to disagree.

[Mithras]

Rhaegar's realistic plan was possibly to convince the Great Lords that Aerys was not fit to rule by himself; so a regent should be appointed for him until he died or got better. As the eldest son and heir of Aerys, Rhaegar was going to be that regent and Aerys would spend the rest of his days in custody under the name "medical care".

If Rhaegar came up with this idea and explained it to the KG, what could be their reactions?

Lol. I was so interested in the magical stuff in TWOIAF that I didnot pay attention to the text where it is more or less confirmed that this was indeed Rhaegar's plan.

Many tales have grown up around Lord Whent’s tournament: tales of plots and conspiracies, betrayals and rebellions , infidelities and assignations, secrets and mysteries, almost all of it conjecture. The truth is known only to a few, some of whom have long passed beyond this mortal vale and must forever hold their tongues. In writing of this fateful gathering, therefore, the conscientious scholar must take care to separate fact from fancy , to draw a sharp line between what is known and what is simply suspected, believed, or rumored.

This is known: The tourney was first announced by Walter Whent, Lord of Harrenhal, late in the year 280 AC, not long after a visit from his younger brother, Ser Oswell Whent, a knight of the Kingsguard. That this would be an event of unrivaled magnificence was clear from the first, for Lord Whent was offering prizes thrice as large as those given at the great Lannisport tourney of 272 AC, hosted by Lord Tywin Lannister in celebration of Aerys II’s tenth year upon the Iron Throne.

Most took this simply as an attempt by Whent to outdo the former Hand and demonstrate the wealth and splendor of his house. There were those, however, who believed this no more than a ruse, and Lord Whent no more than a catspaw. His lordship lacked the funds to pay such munificent prizes, they argued; someone else must surely have stood behind him, someone who did not lack for gold but preferred to remain in the shadows whilst allowing the Lord of Harrenhal to claim the glory for hosting this magnificent event. We have no shred of evidence that such a “shadow host” ever existed, but the notion was widely believed at the time and remains so today. But if indeed there was a shadow, who was he, and why did he choose to keep his role a secret? A dozen names have been put forward over the years, but only one seems truly compelling: Rhaegar Targaryen, Prince of Dragonstone.

If this tale be believed, ’twas Prince Rhaegar who urged Lord Walter to hold the tourney, using his lordship’s brother Ser Oswell as a go-between. Rhaegar provided Whent with gold sufficient for splendid prizes in order to bring as many lords and knights to Harrenhal as possible. The prince, it is said, had no interest in the tourney as a tourney; his intent was to gather the great lords of the realm together in what amounted to an informal Great Council, in order to discuss ways and means of dealing with the madness of his father, King Aerys II, possibly by means of a regency or a forced abdication.

As for the "shadow host" of the Tourney, I bet a large sum on Tywin. And I smell Pycelle in removing the suspicions from Tywin and blaming Rhaegar as he shadow host.

During the Defiance of Duskendale, we have seen how much willing Tywin was to let Aerys die and have Rhaegar as a "much better king". The support of the Lannisters, especially a Lannister like Tywin, was extremely important in this kind of a coup.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

As for the "shadow host" of the Tourney, I bet a large sum on Tywin. And I smell Pycelle in removing the suspicions from Tywin and blaming Rhaegar as he shadow host.

During the Defiance of Duskendale, we have seen how much willing Tywin was to let Aerys die and have Rhaegar as a "much better king". The support of the Lannisters, especially a Lannister like Tywin, was extremely important in this kind of a coup.

How do the Whents figure in that?

[Kingmonkey]

OK, a question. Why would Aerys appoint Viserys his heir over Aegon? Neither of them is remotely old enough to rule. Rhaegar is dead. What's the point?

I'd suggest that it was to do with his suspicions towards Dorne. He believed that the Dornish had betrayed him at the Trident, and he was keeping Elia and her children hostage to Dornish good behaviour. Disinheriting Aegon is a way to limit (imagined) Dornish ambition.

With that idea, it would make no sense for Aerys not to ensure that the news of the change was not widely known.

Can anyone think of an alternative reason for Aerys switching heirs where it would make any sense for him not to spread the news widely?

[Jon Weirgaryen]

OK, a question. Why would Aerys appoint Viserys his heir over Aegon? Neither of them is remotely old enough to rule. Rhaegar is dead. What's the point?

When a king dies without naming his heir, his followers will turn onto another over the succession and there's no leading thread for justice.

When he names his heir, his followers probably will still fight each other over the succession, but at least there's a leading thread for justice.

So, if Viserys was too young, who do you think should have been the heir?

[Kingmonkey]

As for the "shadow host" of the Tourney, I bet a large sum on Tywin. And I smell Pycelle in removing the suspicions from Tywin and blaming Rhaegar as he shadow host.

You'll find a lot of people favour Rhaegar, but yeah I'm with you on this one. I think that's a big part of the reason why Tywin was so absent during RR, too -- he wanted Aerys out, but in favour of Rhaegar. When Rhaegar died, his only course was to get in with the rebels quick.

[Mithras]

How do the Whents figure in that?

It is obvious that the Whents had difficulty in running Harrenhal. It is a very expensibe to keep as we learn from LF. So, what is in for the Whents might be that they were paid by Tywin handsomely and Rhaegar had a Whent KG in his close company, which means power.

We know that Tywin was willing to spend the gold of the CR for his advancements to a Lannister-Targaryen match.

[Mithras]

You'll find a lot of people favour Rhaegar, but yeah I'm with you on this one. I think that's a big part of the reason why Tywin was so absent during RR, too -- he wanted Aerys out, but in favour of Rhaegar. When Rhaegar died, his only course was to get in with the rebels quick.

Tywin was absent but all of his Lords and knights were present. Most of them had the fresh memory of Castamere, so how could they risk Tywin's wrath by attending the Tourney he supposedly protested?

[Kingmonkey]

When a king dies without naming his heir, his followers will turn onto another over the succession and there's no leading thread for justice.

When he names his heir, his followers probably will still fight each other over the succession, but at least there's a leading thread for justice.

So, if Viserys was too young, who do you think should have been the heir?

There's a default succession, Aerys changed it. There's no more reason to assume people would contest Aegon's succession on the basis of tradition than Viserys' on the basis of pronouncement.

Who should have been the heir? Not sure what you mean. Aegon should have been the heir according to tradition, but he chose Viserys instead.

Whichever of those two he picked, there would have to be a regent unless he survived almost another decade. Who would the regent be? He sent Rhaella off to Dragonstone (the extremely defensible seat of the heir) with Viserys, in case KL was invaded. After Aerys' fall, she was from the Loyalist perspective, the Dowager Queen and regent. Had Aegon remained as heir, Elia would have a very good claim to the Regency. I don't think that's a situation Aerys would have been happy with.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Tywin was absent but all of his Lords and knights were present. Most of them had the fresh memory of Castamere, so how could they risk Tywin's wrath by attending the Tourney he supposedly protested?

By knowing he could not punish them.

People humiliated Tywin to gain favors by the king,. Staying away from the tourney as a House from the westerlands would look like supporting Tywin, and not the king. Bad idea..

[Lord Varys]

Aerys and the Dornish:

I'd say that Aerys' mistrust of the Dornishmen came by extension of his mistrust against Rhaegar which came to full fruition after the wedding. Later on, depending on what Aerys knew about the Lyanna affair, he may have had a bunch of good reasons to doubt that Doran and the Martells were fully committed to him and Rhaegar.

We have also to consider Aerys' mad mood swings. First he wants Jaime as a KG to humiliate Tywin, and then he becomes afraid because Jaime is Tywin's son and is guarding with a sword now.

First he wants to marry to Elia Martell, and then he starts to despise her and her 'Dornish smell' for some reason. See a pattern there?

Harrenhal:

There is no reason to believe that Tywin was involved in any of that. Yandel assumes Rhaegar was the shadowy host which is pretty big hint that the Prince of Dragonstone was a very wealthy man in his own right - remember, Aerys' left a full treasury even after the war was over. The Targaryens of this day and age seem to have been not exactly poor.

Aerys' succession:

I've argued that before: It may be that the conversation Ned remembers is his dream did not actually occur this way. You can have a recurring/old dream which does not exactly match how things happened. And the wording is way too ritualized to make all that much sense if Ned arrived there to, well, free Lyanna. The way Ser Gerold speaks about Dragonstone and Viserys does not make much sense in this scenario.

But if take the dream as unaltered reality then the guys at the tower were somehow informed about everything - Rhaegar, Aerys, Jaime's involvement. And then there is significantly less reason that they stayed there because they were protecting 'the rightful king' but rather because they honored Rhaegar's last command which may have been 'Stay there, and guard her and my (unborn) child at all costs'. Again, we don't know when the child was born, and if neither she nor the child were able to travel, there were essentially not able to leave the tower.

[lojzelote]

Why would you say 'never'? The first indication had been that Rhaenys smelled Dornish. Before, he had allowed two dornishmen into his KG (though Lewyns entry might have been part of Elia's marriage deal), and married his heir to a dornishwoman.

In the 260ties, he seemed pleasant enough with the dornish.

I think, as Rhaegar got closer with the Dornish, it caused Aerys to trust them less and less. Before that, he had no problem with them. And in the end, he mistrusted them not for potentially backing Rhaegar, but for possibly betraying him. O the irony..

I think you could enjoy this meta about why Aerys chose Elia to be Rhaegar's bride. Racism (or xenophobia, more like, since according to GRRM the Dornish are still pretty white) may come into it.

Even if Aerys did pass over Rhaegar and named Viserys his heir, it doesn't really change a thing. Viserys is dead.

So only the remaining Targaryens can ascend the throne. Which leaves us to Dany, Aegon (fake or true) and Jon as possible candidates.

In fact, it does. Rhaegar's line was disinherited and another child of Aerys still survives. If you go by Aerys' decree, Daenerys is the true heir... unless you attempt to skip her because she's female. It presents a great opportunity for Dany to present herself as the heir, not Aegon (while the real reason why she fights Aegon will likely be that she suspects he's not who he claims he is).

In other words DotD 2.0. A female claimant appointed by the last king (sort of) vs. a male claimant who would become the king automatically had it not been for the last king's decree. GRRM loves his paralels. Rhaenyra vs Aegon II and Daenerys vs fAegon.

[Mithras]

Harrenhal:

There is no reason to believe that Tywin was involved in any of that. Yandel assumes Rhaegar was the shadowy host which is pretty big hint that the Prince of Dragonstone was a very wealthy man in his own right - remember, Aerys' left a full treasury even after the war was over. The Targaryens of this day and age seem to have been not exactly poor.

The Duskendale is a big hint. Tywin wanted Aerys die and Rhaegar marry his daughter. Although Rhaegar was married during the Tourney, it was well known that Elia would not survive another childbirth and Cersei was ready and willing. Lannisters are known for their fertility. If Tywin acted as the primary supporter of Rhaegar during his old pal's forced abdication, he would collect all the prizes.

There are many reasons to doubt that Tywin might be involved as the shadow host.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I think you could enjoy this meta about why Aerys chose Elia to be Rhaegar's bride. Racism (or xenophobia, more like, since according to GRRM the Dornish are still pretty white) may come into it.

A very interesting read, thank you for linking it!

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Although Rhaegar was married during the Tourney, it was well known that Elia would not survive another childbirth and Cersei was ready and willing.

Really? Because the last time I checked, Elia gave birth after the tourney, so....

It was known at court she had difficulties with her health, not that a second pregnancy was impossible.

[BearQueen87]

... and now everything hinges on the KG being aware of the decree or not. Because if they didn't know about it, it changes nothing.

I still don't think this was public record.

I agree. Also, am I the only one who finds the 'Maester Yandel is merely reporting based on historical records on events of the time' bit slightly... ambiguous?

Oh same.

[BearQueen87]

OK, a question. Why would Aerys appoint Viserys his heir over Aegon? Neither of them is remotely old enough to rule. Rhaegar is dead. What's the point?

I'd suggest that it was to do with his suspicions towards Dorne. He believed that the Dornish had betrayed him at the Trident, and he was keeping Elia and her children hostage to Dornish good behaviour. Disinheriting Aegon is a way to limit (imagined) Dornish ambition.

With that idea, it would make no sense for Aerys not to ensure that the news of the change was not widely known.

Can anyone think of an alternative reason for Aerys switching heirs where it would make any sense for him not to spread the news widely?

Aegon is also only 1.5 yrs old and his side in the war is losing. You don't appoint an infant to help rally the troops.

[Mithras]

Really? Because the last time I checked, Elia gave birth after the tourney, so....

It was known at court she had difficulties with her health, not that a second pregnancy was impossible.

How do you conclude that Aegon was born after the Tourney?

I don't think we have enough evidences to say so.