NFL 2012 Superbowl Prelude: Gods Must Be Strong

[Mack Kilimaro]

I think Joe Flacco is probably somewhere around the 11th best QB in the league, but I wouldn't be very happy if Flacco was asked a question about this sort of thing and said, "Yeah, I feel like I'm probably the 11th-best quarterback in the NFL."

So there's that angle to the endless arguments as well. It's an interesting thing to balance. Too much confidence and too little talent and you get Rex Grossman. Not enough confidence and you get... well, I don't know what you get. But I'm OK with Joe Flacco's agent saying he's a top 5 guy, even if there's no way that I believe it, and won't believe it even if Flacco throws for 600 yards and 8 TDs in the Super Bowl.

[Maithanet]

Unusual that the two teams I liked the most at the divisional round ended up playing in the Super Bowl. Since I am usually an underdog kinda guy (outside of the Redskins, and they are rarely favored anyway), I don't know if this has ever happened.

Don't know who I'm going to root for, but I'm leaning Niners. I always kinda like the NFC being the better conference, and aside from a brief hiatus in the '00s, that has been the case for my entire life.

[Howdyphillip]

Basically, your argument is fucking stupid. You're saying Brees is elite and no one else and nothing you say actually backs any of it up.

It is no more or less stupid than reading a list of Superbowl winners and calling them elite QB's. Eli fucking Manning was in the discussion to start this thing for Pete's sake.

The conversation that i was trying to have is that the talent level of a QB can be measured by more than wins and losses, or even statistics, although statistics do help us out tremendously in evaluations.

If I were starting an NFL team today, the first pick I would use would be for Jay Cutler, and I do that because of arm strength, accuracy, adaptability in the pocket, and yes folks even leadership.

I don't think he will ever be a Superbowl winning QB, or even have the ability to rack up enough stats to get him in a conversation as best QB in the NFL, but I also think that by a pure physical and talent evaluation, he is the best the game is offering right now.

[Rhom]

It is no more or less stupid than reading a list of Superbowl winners and calling them elite QB's. Eli fucking Manning was in the discussion to start this thing for Pete's sake.

The conversation that i was trying to have is that the talent level of a QB can be measured by more than wins and losses, or even statistics, although statistics do help us out tremendously in evaluations.

If I were starting an NFL team today, the first pick I would use would be for Jay Cutler, and I do that because of arm strength, accuracy, adaptability in the pocket, and yes folks even leadership.

I don't think he will ever be a Superbowl winning QB, or even have the ability to rack up enough stats to get him in a conversation as best QB in the NFL, but I also think that by a pure physical and talent evaluation, he is the best the game is offering right now.

:stunned:

I'm no Cutler hater... but that there's some strong words for a Vandy QB.

[Kalbear]

I think Flacco's better than 11th right now; the playoffs really did have him step up his game and play very well, against a very good defense and a team that he had to score a lot on in order to feel 'safe'. I think that's a bit underrated; having the pressure against you that a really great offense is on the other side, waiting to pounce, and you have to keep up - that's hard to deal with. That was hard to deal with for Brady for a long time, for instance.

As always there are four QBs that are simply better than everyone else right now: Brady, Manning, Brees and Rodgers. After that there is a considerable gulf in talent. Eli Manning can be great but is hugely streaky and inconsistent. Ben is as well. Flacco doesn't have enough overall skills; while he's great at the long ball and plays well under pressure he is also somewhat inaccurate, not great at reads and not great at eluding pressure. Ryan is great on his first read but makes poor decisions often. Romo has all the physical skills but is streaky, much like Cutler. Cutler has probably the best arm in the game but has poor decision making, horrible pocket presence and is streaky as well.

None of those QBs past the first 4 should be elite. Not even if Flacco wins a SB.

If I were starting an NFL team today, the first pick I would use would be for Jay Cutler, and I do that because of arm strength, accuracy, adaptability in the pocket, and yes folks even leadership.

Da fuq?

[Independent George]

I hate ranking QBs, so I'll put them into rough tiers:

Greats in their primes:

Brady

Brees

Rodgers

Cusp of Greatness:

P Manning

Ryan

Consistently Inconsistent:

Cutler

Flacco

Freeman

E Manning

Newton

Rivers

Roethlisberger

Romo

Stafford

Consistent but Limited

Dalton

Palmer

Schaub

Smith

Wait and See, Believers Edition:

Griffin

Kaepernick

Luck

Wilson

Wait and See, Skeptics Edition:

Bradford

Ponder

Tannehill

Weeden

When's the draft?

Fitzpatrick

Gabbert

QB-Cardinals

QB-Chiefs

QB-Titans

Sanchez

Vick

In this golden age of passing (that is, legal holding and illegal defense), there is a glut of QBs that I'd call the upper-middle class - good enough to win a championship with, but (for now) not quite good enough to dominate.

[Mexal]

If I were starting an NFL team today, the first pick I would use would be for Jay Cutler, and I do that because of arm strength, accuracy, adaptability in the pocket, and yes folks even leadership.

I don't think he will ever be a Superbowl winning QB, or even have the ability to rack up enough stats to get him in a conversation as best QB in the NFL, but I also think that by a pure physical and talent evaluation, he is the best the game is offering right now.

:rofl:

I can't really respond to this. You said enough.

[Kalbear]

Cusp of Greatness:

P Manning

Ryan

Yeah, I just don't see it. I look at Manning's game this year and don't see that much of a difference between him and, say, Brees - but I see a lot of difference between him and Ryan. Look at FO's stats on him, for instance: second highest DVOA, highest QBR, 4th highest yards, highest completion rate. It's not really fair to mix the two.

I'd also put Weeden in the 'when's the draft'. Tannehill looked significantly better than Weeden did. Or Ponder for that matter.

[Rhom]

When's the draft?

Fitzpatrick

Gabbert

QB-Cardinals

QB-Chiefs

QB-Titans

Sanchez

Vick

I love a good Tecmo Super Bowl nod! :thumbsup:

[James Arryn]

If I were starting an NFL team today, the first pick I would use would be for Jay Cutler, and I do that because of arm strength, accuracy, adaptability in the pocket, and yes folks even leadership.

I don't think he will ever be a Superbowl winning QB, or even have the ability to rack up enough stats to get him in a conversation as best QB in the NFL, but I also think that by a pure physical and talent evaluation, he is the best the game is offering right now.

So, this is like the Jeff George argument?

[Independent George]

Yeah, I just don't see it. I look at Manning's game this year and don't see that much of a difference between him and, say, Brees - but I see a lot of difference between him and Ryan. Look at FO's stats on him, for instance: second highest DVOA, highest QBR, 4th highest yards, highest completion rate. It's not really fair to mix the two.

I'm projecting my entirely arbitrary and subjective views on Manning's future health/decline into the mix, and Ryan's continued growth. In the admittedly few times I've seen him play, Ryan looked a LOT better than his stats (conventional or advanced) would indicate - the best comparison I can make is Brady circa 2003. I'm not saying he's going to be that good, but I've been very impressed with his decision-making, pocket presence, and accuracy. His arm strength will never be great, but it's a lot better than it was a year ago, and certainly good enough to win.

I love a good Tecmo Super Bowl nod! :thumbsup:

It is that, but also that I honestly couldn't remember who the f*** is throwing the ball over there.

[Maithanet]

If I were starting an NFL team today, the first pick I would use would be for Jay Cutler, and I do that because of arm strength, accuracy, adaptability in the pocket, and yes folks even leadership.

I don't think he will ever be a Superbowl winning QB, or even have the ability to rack up enough stats to get him in a conversation as best QB in the NFL, but I also think that by a pure physical and talent evaluation, he is the best the game is offering right now.

I don't know how you can possibly evaluate Jay Cutler as being ahead of Aaron Rodgers. When Rodgers had a defense, he won the Super Bowl. And the past two years without one, he has still put up dramatically better numbers than Cutler across the board. He is far ahead in touchdowns, interceptions, wins, passer rating, really any metric you want to use, and all with a noticeably worse defense than the Bears have. What are you seeing that could possibly put Cutler ahead in this comparison?

I think Cutler is clearly a top 10 quarterback, unless you are ranking some of the rookie phenoms from this year as top 10 despite only a limited NFL resume. But putting him in the top 5 is really pretty hard to do, and putting him in the top 1 is just crazytalk.

[Kalbear]

I'm projecting my entirely arbitrary and subjective views on Manning's future health/decline into the mix, and Ryan's continued growth. In the admittedly few times I've seen him play, Ryan looked a LOT better than his stats (conventional or advanced) would indicate - the best comparison I can make is Brady circa 2003. I'm not saying he's going to be that good, but I've been very impressed with his decision-making, pocket presence, and accuracy. His arm strength will never be great, but it's a lot better than it was a year ago, and certainly good enough to win.

That's fair. I've been less than impressed when he's had to take 5 or 7 step drops, dealing with pressure, or finding his second and third reads. There were a number of throws against the 49ers and Seahawks that were there if he had diagnosed the pressure correctly. He's accurate and has great arm strength but to me he feels like a win more kind of QB; when things are doing well he's great. When they're not, they go really bad.

In any case, I'm mostly talking about Manning; watching his games I've seen nothing that would indicate that he's below the status of the other QBs out there. In a more apples to apples comparison he looked significantly better than Brady did against the Ravens' playoff D, and I thought Brady looked mostly fine. Manning still has the best pocket presence in the league, is still the best at diagnosing defenses and is still the best at being poised under game pressure. Those things may decline in the next couple of years, but if this season is what Manning is like in 'decline' he's pretty incredible. To put it in perspective, his numbers this season were second best in TD passes, third best in yards per attempt, second best in TD/int ratio, second best in passer rating, second best in yards, second best in completion %.

[Kalbear]

Also, seriously Brady - what the fuck is this bullshit? You'd get so fined so hard for this if you weren't Brady. If you were Cutler you'd be literally being killed in the streets.

[Independent George]

In any case, I'm mostly talking about Manning; watching his games I've seen nothing that would indicate that he's below the status of the other QBs out there. In a more apples to apples comparison he looked significantly better than Brady did against the Ravens' playoff D, and I thought Brady looked mostly fine. Manning still has the best pocket presence in the league, is still the best at diagnosing defenses and is still the best at being poised under game pressure. Those things may decline in the next couple of years, but if this season is what Manning is like in 'decline' he's pretty incredible. To put it in perspective, his numbers this season were second best in TD passes, third best in yards per attempt, second best in TD/int ratio, second best in passer rating, second best in yards, second best in completion.

Fair enough. I LOVE Peyton, but I think there is something to the idea that is arm wore down late in the divisional game; it reminds me a little of Favre in Minnesota. His pocket presence and decision-making still puts him in the Top-5 of QBs regardless, but the margins for QB play are so tiny that I'm afraid that losing just a little bit of accuracy here and a little bit of velocity there start to add up very, very quickly.

Also, seriously Brady - what the fuck is this bullshit? You'd get so fined so hard for this if you weren't Brady. If you were Cutler you'd be literally being killed in the streets.

Er, that's just a really ugly, uncoordinated slide more likely to injure the QB than the defender.

[Mack Kilimaro]

Er, that's just a really ugly, uncoordinated slide more likely to injure the QB than the defender.

The second kick really disagrees with this assessment of the whole thing.

I thought it looked pretty bad live, but of course I am a Baltimore homer. The gif makes it look even worse, though.

[Kalbear]

To put it in perspective, his numbers this season were second best in TD passes, third best in yards per attempt, second best in TD/int ratio, second best in passer rating, second best in yards, second best in completion.

And just so I'm clear - cause this didn't make as much sense - this wasn't based on his numbers compared to others in the league - this was based on his numbers against his previous numbers in his career. So not only is he playing at a high level compared to his peers right now, he's also playing at a very high level compared to how he's played in the past.

Seriously - this is like Peyton's second best season ever, second only to the year he got 49 TDs.

[James Arryn]

Er, that's just a really ugly, uncoordinated slide more likely to injure the QB than the defender.

It seemed to me more an ugly, uncoordinated kick. That it may have been ineffective and potentially hurtful to the kicker should not...and in most other cases would not...detract from what seems to clearly have been an intent to kick the oncoming tackler.

[Kalbear]

Yeah, compare to the Suh kick. Both look pretty similar in the sense that they're both doing a kicking motion after the original attempt.

[James Arryn]

Yeah, compare to the Suh kick. Both look pretty similar in the sense that they're both doing a kicking motion after the original attempt.

I get the sense that Suh's was out of frustration/anger whereas Brady's was out of something closer to fear, but I think a journeyman QB or other player gets serious attention paid to that action regardless.